Brandon Pfaadt – Imaginary Brick Wall

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/22/24)

Michael Halpern — Mon, 22 Jul 2024 14:58:55 +0000

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/22/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (6/14/24) (new update coming soon)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/28/24) (new Mailbag coming soon)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Max Clark DET, OF, 19.7 – The stupendous 2023 MLB Draft class is casting such a long shadow that all anyone can talk about is how crappy the 2024 Draft class is in comparison, and while I would argue they are being too harsh, especially for fantasy, (check out the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings that just dropped on Patreon last week), the 2023 class is out here teaching the 2024 class how it’s done in pro ball. Clark just homered his way into a promotion to High-A, going 3 for 4 with a laser shot into the License to Chill Lounge. He tacked on a double and stolen base in his final game at Single-A. He earned that promotion with 7 homers, 26 steals, a 133 wRC+, and 17.4%/14.4% K%/BB% in 73 games. That is fully living up to his hype, and the final step to superstardom will be naturally gaining strength and raising his launch (48.6% GB%), although he has the type of profile that can thrive with a low launch. He isn’t even one of the truly most hyped names in the class …

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.5 – Speaking of one of the most hyped names in the class, arguably too hyped, Crews is out here working to put some shine back on his name, utterly destroying a 409 foot, 103.3 MPH bomb for his 4th in 23 games at the level. The 97 wRC+ might not be super impressive, but 4 homers with 5 steals, a 16.8%/9.7% K%/BB% and 89.2 MPH EV looks pretty damn good to me. With all the hand wringing over Crews and ball washing over Langford, it would be pretty funny if Crews took MLB by storm when he got his chance and passed Langford again. Langford has been coming on of late, but his season line is still quite beatable.

Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.5 – The mega hyped Jenkins had a hammy delay his full take off, but he’s been healthy and in a groove for a little while now, going 2 for 4 with 2 walks and a steal yesterday. He now has a 140 wRC+ on the back of a 12.5%/19.5% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s great to see how advanced of a hitter he is, but we have enough elite plate approach weaklings to go around, we need him to start doing some real damage. Only 2 homers with a 87.3 MPH EV is lackluster. We know he has the raw power in the tank at 6’3”, 210 pounds, so I don’t doubt it’s coming, but it would be nice to see some more of it.

Brice Matthews HOU, SS, 22.4 – Matthews didn’t get the hype of the aforementioned names, unless you read my work this off-season which named Matthews as one of my favorite FYPD targets, and he’s more than delivered. He went 2 for 4 with 2 steals and an absolute NUC out to deep centerfield that hit off the cotton press. Why they have a cotton press in centerfield is anyone’s guess, but the announcer was hyped that he hit it. He’s homered in back to back games at Double-A, and now has 4 homers, 6 steals, and a 125 wRC+ in 25 games at the level. The 34.1% K% is definitely too high and adds a healthy does of risk, but he’s proving his upside is no joke, and you have to be happy with this performance compared to his very reasonable FYPD price.

Arjun Nimmala TOR, SS, 18.9 – Nimmala was down on the mat to start the year, simply not looking ready for pro ball, but that was understandable considering how young he was for the class, and now that he’s found a groove, it’s been a homer fest. He drilled his 3rd homer in 6 games at Single-A, and since getting recalled to the level, he’s put up a 1.042 OPS with 4 homers in 16 games. The 32.8% K% over that time period still shows the rawness in his game, but a 110 wRC+ in 45 games on the season is quite impressive for a legit 18 year old. The power is very real, and with more refinement, a true explosion could be coming in 2025.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 22.11 – The only thing thinner than Colorado’s air is their lineup, and Birdsong came into Coors and sliced his way through both the air and the lineup, going 6 IP with 2 hits, 2 ER, and a 12/2 K/BB. The breaking pitches were working just fine in that air with a 63% whiff% on the curve and 59% whiff% on the slider. The non breaking pitches were working just fine too with a 57% whiff% on the 95.8 MPH fastball and 50% whiff% on the changeup. He dominated in every facet of the game, and his MLB debut is looking pretty good now with a 3.55 ERA and 28.3%/11.3% K%/BB% in 25.1 IP. His 33.7% whiff% is in the elite range. Birdsong has been underrated for a while now, but a start like this will start to turn people’s head. The below average control certainly adds risk, but he has the type of stuff and swing and miss to overcome that. I’ve been relatively high on Birdsong for over a year now, and I love what I see with his MLB debut. I’m still buying.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 24.2 – Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA (3.74 xERA). He had another impressive outing yesterday, going 6 IP with 7 hits, 4 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB vs. STL. The fastball sat 95.7 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%. The splitter was devastating with a 64% whiff%. And he used a 6 pitch mix to notch a 34% whiff% overall. He got hit hard in this one with a 93.3 MPH EV, but he hasn’t been hit hard this season with a 4.7% Barrel% against. He just rose to #212 overall on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), finishing his blurb by writing, “He looks damn good. I would buy off the high ERA if you can.” He has the big velocity, he has the big pitch mix, he has plus control, he induces weak contact, he has above average whiffs, and he has three plus secondaries. #212 might not even be high enough, he might be worthy of knocking on the door of the Top 100 area right now. He’s starting to look like a young near ace.

Drew Thorpe CHW, RHP, 23.10 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. KC. The filthy changeup is just impossible to pick up with a 43% whiff%. It really acts more like knuckleball. It can really end up anywhere with multiple different movement profiles. It’s pretty wild and it’s befuddled MLB hitters with a .246 xwOBA and 38.8% whiff% on the season. It’s led to a 3.03 ERA with a 15.4%/10.9% K%/BB% and 86 MPH EV against in 38.2 IP. There is little doubt at this point the changeup will play against the best hitters in the world. It wasn’t only the changeup in this game though, the slider also dominated with a 64% whiff%, and that pitch has also been good with a .293 xwOBA (.176 wOBA) and 30% whiff%. I struggle to fully buy in with such a mediocre K/BB rate, but this is essentially a knuckleballer+ profile, and knuckleballer’s can definitely get the job done without great K/BB rates. I’m buying in more and more, but I still see limited upside in the long run.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 25.9 – 7 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. CHC. He did what he does best which is double plus control of a good fastball, to go along with two good secondaries in his sweeper and changeup. I named him a major target in my Top 11 Mid-Season Dynasty Baseball Targets article (Patreon), and since then he has a 0.77 ERA with a 25/3 K/BB in 23.1 IP. Not bad. I hope you bought when the price was reasonable.

James Wood WAS, OF, 21.10 – Wood cooled off a bit from his blazing start in the majors, but he was back at it yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a 105.9 MPH homer off lefty Justin Wilson. That wasn’t even his hardest hit ball of the day, it was his 3rd hardest hit ball with a 109 MPH lineout and 107.2 MPH single off lefty Andrew Abbott. He now has a 12.2% Barrel% and 93.5 MPH EV in 17 games. The 33.3% K% and negative 7.6 degree launch is definitely showing off some rawness, and he’s not a finished product, but nothing is dissuading me from thinking Wood is a future superstar. He crushes the ball too hard, and he’s shown in the minors he can improve his hit tool. The explosion might not be coming this year, but it’s coming.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.4 – I’m not going to say Chourio has fully arrived, because there is another level in here he hasn’t even started to scratch yet, but he’s certainly getting closer after going 2 for 4 with a 108.6 MPH double off Joe Ryan and 107.7 MPH, 443 foot homer off Jorge Alcala. He’s now slashing .314/.368/.512 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 17.3%/8.3% K%/BB% in his last 36 games. Everything in his underlying numbers is setting a super strong foundation for him to build on in future years. He’s right on track, just give him another year or so.

Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.9 – It’s not just the 2023 Draft class that was impressive, the international class was special too, and De Vries has been exploding into elite prospect status right before our eyes. He cracked his 7th homer in 54 games at Single-A with that beautiful and powerful swing that straight up looks MLB ready. He now has a .976 OPS with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 20/13 K/BB in his last 19 games. He ranked 199th overall on those Updated Dynasty Rankings, and that number will just keep climbing.

Zebby Matthews MIN, RHP, 24.2 – Matthews got the call to Triple-A, and he unsurprisingly had no issues in his first start at the level, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 95.3 MPH with a respectable 20% whiff%, the cutter induced weak contact with a 86.8 MPH EV, and the breaking balls missed bats with a 67% whiff% on the curve and 33% whiff% on the slider. I’ve been all over Matthews all season, putting him in the Top 50 on the latest Top 305 Prospects Rankings (new update coming soon on Patreon). He’s walked 6 guys all season in 83 IP, which is dumb. He combines the truly elite control with big velocity, over 30% K rates at each level, and a diverse pitch mix. He’s an elite pitching prospect.

Hunter Barco PIT, LHP, 23.7 – Barco made his first outing at a new level as well, making the big jump to the upper minors at Double-A, and he delivered, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB. I love me a funky lefty, and while Barco’s stuff isn’t huge, he proved it will play just fine in the upper minors. Before Double-A he put up some big numbers at High-A with a 3.34 ERA and 30.4%/8.7% K%/BB% in 62 IP. Pitt has yet another really really good arm in the stable. I would value Barco as at least a Top 200 prospect, and he might be sneaking into the Top 150 area now.

Jarlin Susana WASH, RHP, 20.4 – Susuna has the Hunter Greene starter pack with an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider, and while that pack has been sitting in the plastic for awhile, he’s been starting to put it together of late. He made his 2nd outing at High-A and looked good, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB. That walk rate is the most important thing to watch, and he now has a 29.3%/7.3% K%/BB% in 10 IP at the level. Over his last 40 IP at Single-A and High-A, he’s put up a 1.58 ERA and 40.1%/9.2% K%/BB%. That is exactly the type of breakout we have been waiting for. There is still control/bullpen risk, but I don’t see how this type of talent isn’t a Top 100 prospect with what he’s been doing of late. He needs to be owned in every league.

Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 24.1 – Malloy went 1 for 3 with a walk and walloped a 104 MPH homer off Kevin Gausman for his 6th in 35 games. He’s been extra hot of late with a 1.060 OPS, 4 homers, and a 13/7 K/BB in his last 14 games. He’s showing the power will play in the majors with a 11.1% Barrel%, but I don’t quite trust that the BA will be good enough to sustain a full time job long term. The 20.2 degree launch is extreme and so is the 35.5% whiff%. The .187 xBA is scary. It’s hard not to say that the MLB debut has been a success, but I would still have some caution before buying too high here.

Lawrence Butler OAK, OF, 24.0 – The underlying numbers were screaming that a breakout was coming Butler’s first time around in the majors, and after a reset at Triple-A, the breakout is here. He’s been a hit machine since returning to the majors, going 2 for 3 with a double and 2 walks yesterday, and is now slashing .385/.439/.885 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 13/5 K/BB in his last 15 games. He has a 92.2 MPH EV, 11.7% Barrel%, and a .340 xwOBA. The 28.5%/9.7% K%/BB% ain’t that bad. I’ve loved Butler for awhile now, and stayed patient through his surface stats struggles. It’s paying off in a big way now. I’m buying.

Michael King SDP, RHP, 29.2 – King’s slow start to the season dug a deep hole for his hype that he’s been trying to climb out of all season, but I think it’s high time to acknowledge that the dominant run he went on to close the 2023 season was no fluke. Dude has been performing like a true ace for almost 3 months now. He once again put on a dominant performance vs. CLE, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. He led with the changeup up in this one with a 41% usage, and it was unhittable with a 55% whiff% and 70.4 MPH EV against. The 4 seamer and sweeper were spotless as well with a 36% whiff% and 60% whiff%, respectively. It led to a 75.8% MPH EV against and 45% whiff% on the day. the jumped to 130th overall on those Updated Top 422 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), and I don’t think a placement inside the Top 100 is unwarranted at this point. He’s starting to cement near ace status.

Drue Hackenburg ATL, RHP, 22.4 – I’ve been talking a lot of shit about the Hackenburg family lately after what Christian Hackenburg did to me as a Jets and Nittany Lions fan, but Drue went out and put some respect back on his family name yesterday, going 7 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 16/0 K/BB at Double-A. I mean, wow, what a performance. Here are the highlights of the dominance. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 35.9%/12% K%/BB% in 21 IP at the level. It’s still not good enough to convince me to go after him though. For me, it’s personal, it’s not business

Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 25.0 – 3.1 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 1/5 K/BB vs. NYY. The slider didn’t induce a single whiff and he put up a lowly 12% whiff% on the day. He now has a 6.78 xERA with a 19%/11.1% K%/BB% in 13.2 IP. Clearly, something isn’t right. This is why you have to factor in some added risk for pitchers coming off Tommy John. And it’s often their 2nd year back that they return to form, rather than their first year back. This isn’t going to be a smooth ride back to full health, and I think it’s fair to start worrying, but in the long run, I would try to stay patient.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/15/23)

Michael Halpern — Mon, 15 May 2023 13:46:52 +0000

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

Christopher Morel CHC, 2B/OF, 23.10 – They say good things come to those who wait, and the Morel owners who waited are now enjoying good things as he jacked his 3rd homer in 21 PA. He has a 1.238 OPS with a 92.4 MPH EV, 1 steal, and most importantly, the whiff% is all the way down to a reasonable 28.9%. He was one of my favorite targets this off-season, and I sure as hell waited while bad vets got the nod over him even while he was destroying spring pitching and destroying Triple-A. Come to think of it, the people who say “good things come to those who wait” are usually the ones screwing you over, but Morel refused to be held down for long, and his fantasy owners are now reaping the benefits. He checked in at #227 on the Updated May Top 433 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that just dropped on the Patreon last week, and that number will keep rising if he keeps performing and locks in playing time.

Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 21.0 – Jordan Walker owners were given immediate gratification with him making the team out of camp and look how that worked out for them. He had mediocre results and then very quickly got sent back to down to Triple-A to work on his launch angle. Let’s check in to see how that launch is looking after a 3 for 5 day yesterday: 28.6% FB%. Not great, and it’s led to a 60 wRC+ in 15 games at Triple-A. He’s still crushing the ball and the plate approach is good, so I wouldn’t be worried, but the Cardinals very publicly announced what they wanted to see from him, and they quite clearly haven’t seen it yet. I’m guessing they will call him back up eventually regardless of his launch, but it would have been easier if he was able to successfully make that adjustment.

Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 25.7 – Kirilloff owners have been waiting for damn near 4 years, and quite frankly, you have the patience of a saint if you kept him on your roster all this time, but now that saintly patience is paying off. He went 2 for 6 yesterday and now has a 1.309 OPS with 2 homers, a 93.1 MPH EV and a 17.9%/21.4% K%/BB% in 28 PA in the majors. He looks healthy and as long as he stays that way, he’ll likely keep raking. I’m buying.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 24.7 – Tom Petty said the waiting is the hardest part, but he obviously never owned Pfaadt in dynasty, because watching him get shelled once he did get the call has surely been the hardest part. The waiting was the easy part in hindsight. But he had his best MLB outing yesterday, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 5/3 K/BB vs. SFG. The fastball sat 93.4 MPH and he induced weak contact with an 83.5 MPH EV against. It’s still been super rough overall with an 8.59 ERA in 14.2 IP, and all of his pitches are getting destroyed. I can’t lie, it’s a little concerning as he doesn’t necessarily have stuff, but really nothing you can do but keep waiting.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – Fuck waiting. Sometimes you have to take what you want, and that is why Neto was my 3rd ranked FYPD prospect, because I knew he would be fast tracked to the bigs. But even I didn’t expect it to happen so fast, and considering the rush job LA put on him, he’s been pretty damn good. He went 1 for 3 with a 100.6 MPH double off none other than a 98.9 MPH Emmanuel Clase fastball. He now has a 15.7% K%, 89.3 MPH EV, 7.9% Barrel%, and a .326 xwOBA. He’s setting a very strong foundation, and the best is almost certainly yet to come.

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.8 – Strand and Elly owners will have to keep waiting, because Yippee-ki-yay, it’s McLain time. He’s been out of his mind at Triple-A, slashing .348/.474/.710 with 12 homers, 10 steals, and a 19.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 38 games, earning every bit of this callup. And I don’t see him going anywhere as long he performs decently well. He’s shown some hit tool issues in the past and he’s not a huge raw power guy, but he’s a pick up in all league sizes if he happens to still be out there on your wire.

Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 24.2 – Can I shoehorn this waiting theme into one more player … hmmmmmm … I got nothing. Bibee owners waited the appropriate amount of time and he’s been impressive from the get go. He went 7.2 IP with 2 hits, 1 ER, and 7/2 K/BB vs. LAA. The fastball sat 95.2 MPH and he put up a 29% whiff% overall. Bibee is well on his way to becoming a Top 100 dynasty asset with a 3.22 ERA and 25%/4.5% K%/BB% in 22.1 IP. He currently sits at #165 on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Louie Varland MIN, RHP, 25.4 – 6.1 IP, 4 hits, 3 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. CHC. Varland was my first “full breakout alert” in the Dynasty Rundowns back in early April, and there wasn’t much waiting after that as he quickly got called up to the majors. He hasn’t necessarily exploded with a 4.30 ERA in 23 IP, but the stuff looks great led by a 95.1 MPH fastball, and so does the 28.4%/6.3% K%/BB%. I still think he’s a bit underrated.

James Wood WAS, OF, 20.7 – Wood went 3 for 3 with 2 doubles, a dinger, and a 0/2 K/BB at High-A as he’s now officially destroying the level with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 137 wRC+ in 31 games. The one quibble is that the K% is all the way up to 29%. Strikeouts were always going to be a part of his game at 6’6”, and he can thrive even with a high K rate, but it does add risk, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep it in check when he gets to Double-A.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.0 – Jones is the older version of Wood. He went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles, 1 steal, and most importantly, 0 K’s. He’s crushing High-A with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 143 wRC+, but that 32.2%/5.8% K%/BB% is pretty rough. He just turned 22 yesterday (Happy Birthday, Spence), so he’s a young 22, but he’ll likely need to make legitimate hit tool and plate approach improvements if he wants his power/speed combo to shine in the majors. He was my 5th ranked FYPD prospect, and I still love him, but we can’t completely ignore those K/BB numbers as much as I want to.

Jacob Melton HOU, OF, 22.9 – Melton cracked his 5th homer at High-A and is doing what an advanced college bat is supposed to do in the lower minors. Along with the 5 homers, he has 12 steals with a 26%/19% K%/BB% and a 136 wRC+ in 22 games. We just gotta watch that K%, but the power/speed combo is very legit. He’s exciting.

Gavin Cross KC, OF, 22.2 – Cross is doing whatever the opposite of “doing what an advanced college bat is supposed to do in the lower minors,” as he’s looked terrible at High-A even after going 2 for 4 yesterday. He has a 62 wRC+ with a 32.8%/7.3% K%/BB% in 31 games. The hit tool was the one iffy part of his game coming out of the draft, and that’s playing out right now. We saw him molten hot last year to start his pro career, so I wouldn’t completely overreact to the still small sample, but it’s simply not what you want to see.

Marco Luciano SFG, SS, 21.7 – Lucky Luciano launched his 2nd bomb in 10 games at Double-A, but it came on a 1 for 5 with 3 K day. He now has a 50 wRC+ with a 40% K% at the level, and it just feels like the shine continues to come off that formerly pristine prospect hype. He’s still a good prospect, but I’m not sure he really stands out anymore, although maybe we have to give him some more time to shake the rust off as he’s coming off a stress fracture in his back this off-season.

Kyren Paris LAA, 2B/SS, 21.5 – Paris was a named target for me this off-season, and he’s been a beast all season at Double-A. He went 2 for 3 with his 9th homer on a beautiful swing yesterday. He’s now slashing .239/.390/.487 with 9 homers, 10 steals, and a 31.9%/17.7% K%/BB% in 31 games. The power has taken a major step forward, which is huge to see considering his double plus speed. The hit tool is still a major concern which prevents his hype from truly exploding, but this is an extremely high upside fantasy player who still gets almost no love. I’m still buying despite the risk.

Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 23.4 – 1 for 2 with a homer and 3 walks. The hard hitting Malloy is now slashing .323/.455/.526 with 7 homers and a 24.2%/17.6% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A and I can’t imagine it is much longer before he gets the call. I think he’s likely to be a better real life hitter than fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make a fantasy impact too. He’s a great stash in any league.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.3 – Matos drilled his 3rd homer and he did it with a swing that looks ready made for the majors. Quick and powerful. He’s bouncing back in a big way from a down 2022, slashing .304/.398/.443 with 3 homers, 9 steals, and a 9%/12.8% K%/BB% in 31 games at Double-A. A few more bombs like that and his formerly elite prospect hype could sneak back up on us. He’s a major riser this year regardless.

Ryan Bliss ARI, 2B/SS, 24.5 – Bliss has lived up to his name and then some with his performance at Double-A. He went 3 for 6 with a double, homer, and 2 steals yesterday, and is now slashing a blissful .406/.433/.672 with 6 homers, 11 steals, and a 20.1%/4.5% K%/BB% in 29 games. He’s a particularly small guy at only 5’6”, but check out this swing on yesterday’s dinger, he definitely has some pop in there. The plate approach is mediocre and so is the power, which makes it hard to buy in too hard, but how can you argue with that performance.

Spencer Arrighetti HOU, RHP, 23.5 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 9/2 K/BB at Double-A. Arrighetti was a target of mine this off-season, and while he struggled to start the year, he now has a 0.53 ERA with a 19/6 K/BB in his last 17 IP. He sure looks like he’s finding his rhythm, and like most Astros pitching prospects for some weird reason, he flies way under the radar.

Jackson Rutledge WAS, RHP, 24.2 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Rutledge has been performing rock solidly all year with a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 IP, and he has the big stuff to back it up. I still don’t love the 23.7%/9% K%/BB%, he’s been injury prone in his career, and that ERA probably has some good luck involved, but there is a clear path to a rotation spot with Washington’s depleted roster. Not the worst stash if you missed out on the more hyped recently called up pitching prospects.

Cory Lewis MIN, RHP, 22.7 – Lewis was drafted in the 9th round last year, but he’s performing like anything but a 9th rounder after throwing 5.2 perfect innings with 7 K’s. He has a 2.43 ERA with a 33.3%/6.8% K%/BB% in 29.2 IP at Single-A. He throws a low 90’s fastball, but it has plus spin, and at 6’5”, 220 pounds, it gets great extension too. He rounds out of the repertoire with a power breaker he throws in the dirt, a slower one he can throw for strikes, and a lesser used changeup. Definitely an intriguing pop up pitching prospect to at least keep an eye on.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/12/22)

Michael Halpern — Mon, 12 Sep 2022 14:57:08 +0000

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/12/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON AND OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 455 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Team Prospect Lists, Positional Dynasty Rankings, and early access to the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.1 – Don’t you do it. Don’t you dare do it. I know you’re getting that wandering eye. You love baseball, but damn, football is looking so sexy rolling up to the party all fresh faced with nothing but hope and potential. But just you wait. Soon half your roster will be out with a high ankle sprain, your favorite team’s O-Line will be a sieve, and you’ll be spending 75% of your FAAB on some 3rd string running back. Then you’ll be begging to come back. Your old ball and chain, baseball, is even willing to meet you halfway. They’re willing to bring new people into the bedroom! So many of the games top prospects have gotten the call, none more exciting than my #1 fantasy prospect, Corbin Carroll. He went 1 for 4 with a 101.3 MPH single that he hit into the ground at a negative 48 degree launch angle. That’s been the story of his MLB debut as he has a respectable 88.5/93.7 MPH AVG/FB EV, but he hasn’t been lifting the ball with a negative 1.3 degree launch. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.6 ft/sec sprint speed, but he’s 0 for 1 on the bases in 11 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, and while a 29.5% K% is high, the 26% whiff% shows it likely won’t be a major issue. He’s done enough to hang onto the top spot, but he has someone right on his tail …

Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 21.2 – The #2 ranked prospect on the Updated Top 360 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that just hit my Patreon last week, Henderson went 0 for 1 with a 1/1 K/BB coming off the bench. The game here is to bench these guys enough for them to maintain their rookie status for 2023. Like Carroll, he’s been solid in his pro debut with nothing setting off alarm bells. He has a 89.9 MPH EV, 9.2 degree launch, and a 20%/8.9% K%/BB%. His speed also might have been undersold as a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed is damn fast.

Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 24.6 – Jung had to earn this MLB debut, coming back from shoulder surgery, and he blew his load early with a homer in his very first at bat on Friday. It hasn’t been as good since, putting up the golden sombrero yesterday (0 for 4 with 4 K’s). A golden sombrero literally does sound like a quite disgusting sex act (no judgement if that’s your thing). I looked up the origin of golden sombrero, thinking it would be some super cool story (also worried that it might have been a little racist), but turns out there is no story. According to Wikipedia, baseball thought calling 3 goals in hockey a “hat trick” was cool, “and since four is bigger than three, the rationale was that a four-strikeout performance should be referred to by a bigger hat, such as a sombrero.” Pretty uninspiring. Jung has a 83.8 MPH EV with a 44% whiff% in his 3 game debut.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.8 – Cases went 0 for 3 with a K yesterday, and his MLB debut has been similar to Jung’s with 1 homer and not much else. The 35.7% whiff% in 7 games will be something to keep an eye on as the hope was for Casas to be an excellent all around hitter, not just a low average slugger.

Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.5 – Atlanta didn’t wait until September to call up their young studs, and Harris rewarded them majorly for their boldness. He homered twice yesterday and the cement is now starting to dry on his status as an elite dynasty asset. He ranked 42nd overall on the August Top 455 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), and he might be pushing Top 20 status when I update the rankings for September next week.

Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.8 – Speaking of the cement drying on an elite dynasty asset, Rodriguez’ dried so long ago it even has an imprint of my hand with “Halp was here, April 2022” etched into it for eternity. He went 3 for 4 with 2 bombs yesterday, and if you told me you wanted to take him 1st overall in a new dynasty league this off-season, it would be hard for me to argue against it. Ohtani might still be my top choice, but I think Julio could be a close 2nd.

Luis Patino TBR, RHP, 22.8 – Let’s keep the excitement going with Patino who is getting another crack at the rotation and … yikes. He gave up 9 earned in 1.1 IP and the stuff didn’t look all that good either with a decent 94.6 MPH fastball and relatively low spin rates on all of his pitches. He’s still young, but I’m starting to sour on him a bit.

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.10 – Rodriguez returned from a lat strain and he definitely has some rust to shake off. He went 2.2 IP with 1 hit, 4 ER and a 7/3 K/BB at Double-A. You can never relax when you are banking on pitching prospects to carry the future of your dynasty team. Just look at the ghost of Forrest Whitley who has a 7.07 ERA in 28 IP at Triple-A this year. Or Daniel Espino disappearing into thin air so completely that it would make David Copperfield jealous.

Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 22.11 – Torkelson returned to the majors and he’s trying to make us forget about the struggles that got him sent down in the first place. He went 1 for 3 with a 107 MPH double and now has a 1.030 OPS with a 5/3 K/BB and 97 MPH EV in 8 games since returning. He just might be able to rekindle those new love butterflies we all had earlier in the season if he keeps killing it down the stretch.

Michael Massey KCR, 2B, 24.4 – Massey is someone I am going to be grabbing a ton of this off-season. He went 1 for 3 with a homer and 1/1 K/BB yesterday. The underlying numbers look great to me with a 90.5 MPH EV, 16.8 degree launch angle, 15.5% barrel% and 22.7% K%. He’s not super fast, but he’s proving he has some real stolen base skills (3 for 3 on the bases). He might not be a league winner, but I think he is going to be sneaky good next year.

Jonathan Aranda TBR, 1B/2B/3B, 24.0 – 1 for 3 with a 1/1 K/BB. Aranda is trying to wade his way through Tampa’s deep roster to get playing time, and when he does, he’s proving that he’s just a damn good hitter no matter what the level. He has a 94.4 MPH EV with a 15.4%/11.5% K/BB% in 26 MPH PA. Playing time is going to be an issue and he might not have super high upside, but it’s pretty clear this guy is going to hit.

George Valera CLE, OF, 21.10 – Valera might not join the top prospect brigade in the majors this year, but it probably won’t be too far into 2023 until he does. He drilled his 7th homer in 28 games since getting called up to Triple-A. He has a little Gary Sheffield bat wiggle, and that line drive homer is reminiscent of some of the frozen ropes Sheffield would hit. Valera isn’t as good as Sheffield, but his power and OBP profile is completely transferring to Triple-A.

Joey Wiemer MIL, OF, 23.7 – Wiemer got called up to Triple-A and became a new man. He went 2 for 4 with a dinger and is now slashing .275/.360/.533 with 6 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.9%/12.2% K%/BB%. What strikeout problems?

Adael Amador COL, SS, 19.7 – Amador laughs at strikeout problems as he’s maintained an elite plate approach all season (12.1%/15.7% K%/BB%), and he showed off the power yesterday jacking out his 15th homer in 115 games at Single-A. The power/speed combo may not be huge, but plenty of superstars have bubbled up from these elite plate approach guys even if they aren’t visually jaw dropping athletes.

Kevin Parada NYM, C, 21.11 – Parada got on the board with his first professional homer in 13 games. He’s walking a ton with a .463 OBP and 24.4% BB% at Single-A, but the 29.3% K% is on the high side.

Justyn-Henry Malloy ATL, 3B/OF, 22.7 – Malloy is getting some late season helium as he continued to handle his business since getting called up to Double-A. He cracked his 6th homer in 48 games at the level and is now slashing .291/.416/.459 with 6 homers, 0 steals and a 24.8%/17.3% K%/BB%. He always had very high walk rates throughout his career and he’s shaping up to a great low key target in OBP leagues this off-season.

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, OF, 23.7 – Cabrera hit his first MLB homer with a 408 foot shot on a 1 for 4 day. He has a 86.7 MPH EV with a 28.8% whiff% and 27.3 ft/sec sprint speed in 88 MLB PA. I think he’s a heavily used utility player long term and isn’t really a target of mine.

Bubba Thompson TEX, OF, 24.3 – The 7th fastest man in baseball racked up 2 more steals to give him 13 steals in 33 games. He has a 2.8% barrel%, so his .298 BA is the result of good luck, but a 87.8 MPH EV and 29% whiff% isn’t hopeless. It’s not a bad MLB debut, and his elite base stealing ability is worth taking on the extra risk.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 23.10 – Pfaadt bounced back from his first bad start at Triple-A with a gem yesterday, going 8 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 11/0 K/BB. He threw a 5 pitch mix led by his high spin, 94.3 MPH fastball. His K/BB numbers have been elite all year and they barely dropped off at all at Triple-A with a 30.4%/6.3% K%/BB% in 50 IP.

Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 23.6 – The hard charging Bibee isn’t slowing down, going 6 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. He rose up all the way to #60 overall on the Updated Top 360 Prospects Rankings and I think his name value will remain subdued enough this off-season to get him at a very reasonable price.

Mitch Keller PIT, RHP, 26.5 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 6/3 K/BB vs. STL. Keller is doing just enough to close out the season to screw us all over again in 2023. He has a 2.51 ERA with a 49/19 K/BB in his last 61 IP. I’m not taking the bait though as the strikeout numbers just haven’t been impressive enough. Don’t get sucked back in.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/15/22)

Michael Halpern — Mon, 15 Aug 2022 13:47:48 +0000

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/15/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 350 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 437 JULY 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS

Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.7 – Is Tatis an irredeemable fuck up who you should sell immediately in dynasty? Or is he an immature 23 year old kid making bad decisions with the expectations of the world on his shoulders? I like to think I’m a good judge of character, and to me this is a clear case of the latter, which is why I would buy everywhere I could. It’s like when my mom busted me for smoking weed in my room in high school at 1 a.m. in the morning while watching Late Night with Conan O’Brien. No ma, that’s not weed you smell, I’m just super gassy from that Claritin D you gave me! I swear it! Deny, deny, deny. And look at me now, I turned out fine, quitting a career in law to become a fantasy baseball writer. My parents couldn’t be prouder!

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.5/Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 21.0 – My #2 and #3 ranked prospects on my Top 350 August 2022 Dynasty Prospects Rankings both had huge days at the dish. Chourio went 4 for 4 with a homer that absolutely exploded off his bat. Henderson went 3 for 6 with a homer that he crushed so hard I think it landed in the forest behind the ballpark. I could make a strong argument for both of these guys to be the top prospect in the game and are players you really shouldn’t be using in win now deals. These are the type of core offensive pieces who make you a contender for several years. I’m all for win now mode and living in the present, but the word “untouchable” was made for prospects like this.

Vinnie Pasquantino KCR, 1B, 24.7 – 3 for 4 with a homer. Here’s what I wrote about Vinnie in my July Top 437 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, ranking him 109th overall, “.387 xwOBA vs. .293 wOBA. He’s a major buy.” In one of the easiest calls ever, Vinnie got hot since then with 4 homers in his last 6 games.

Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.4 – 2 for 4 with a double and 111.2 MPH dinger. He’s now rocking a .293 BA with 12 homers and 13 steals in 69 games. Harris is undisputedly a Top 50-ish dynasty asset, the only question is how much higher to go on him. A 30% whiff%, 3.8% BB%, and 4.6 degree launch angle are legitimate concerns, and if he cools off down the stretch you can look at those numbers and say it was inevitable to happen. On the other hand, he’s only 21 years old and skipped right over Triple-A, so it would be insane to expect him to already be a finished product.

Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 21.7 – 2 for 3 with a 0/2 K/BB. Calling up a 21 year old straight from Double-A worked once already for Atlanta, and they rolled the dice again with Grissom and it just keeps coming up sevens. He has a 1.228 OPS in 5 games. He already rose all the way up to 33rd overall in my July rankings, and he checked in at #20 on the Updated August Top 350 Prospects Rankings.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 23.9 – 6 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 10/2 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball averaged 93.7 MPH, he threw 6 pitches, and he put up a 49% whiff% led by his fastball, slider and change. Pfaadt is a guy who has just kept growing on me, and I think he is one of the more underrated prospects in the minors. He might not have ace upside, but I do think he has potential to end up in that sneaky 2/3 range and could probably be had for a pretty reasonable price at this point. He checked in at #82 on the Updated Prospects Rankings.

Dustin May LAD, RHP, 24.9 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 10/1 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball averaged 97 MPH, he threw 5 pitches, and the curve put up a 3297 spin rate. May was breaking out to such an extreme level before going down with Tommy John surgery that I just couldn’t budge his ranking very much. I already had him up to #73 on the July Dynasty Rankings, and now with both the stuff and control back, he very well could be pushed into the top 50 on next week’s Updated Rankings.

Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 23.1 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. Hancock is a classic case of eye test vs. results. He gets an A+ on the eye test. If you love the art of pitching and watching a guy who commands the mound, you will love Hancock. On the other hand, a 22.6%/7.4% K%/BB% with a 5.28 xFIP (2.19 ERA) is less impressive. “Art of pitching” your way through Double-A is much different than doing it in the majors. He’s a top 100 prospect for me, but if he ends up a back end starter it will look pretty obvious in hindsight.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 21.6 – Neto looked so impressive in his 7 game pro debut at High-A that he was sent up to Double-A already, and he lifted off for his first homer at the level on a 2 for 4 with 0 K day. He’s now 10 for 23 in 5 games there. The only slight quibble with Neto was that he didn’t play in the strongest conference in college (Big South), but with him ripping up the upper levels of the minors that is really irrelevant now. He already climbed to #6 on my First Year Player Draft Rankings, and the arrow continues to point up.

Brooks Lee MIN, SS, 21.5 – My previous 6th ranked prospect, Lee, isn’t having too shabby of a pro debut himself, showing off the plus hit tool on a 4 for 5 day at High-A. He’s hitting .364 in 8 games split between rookie ball and High-A and is one of the safer bats in this year’s class.

Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 22.4 – It’s impossible to watch Canario jack a homer and not get excited. Here he is smoking his 21st homer in 75 games at Double-A. Go ahead, I dare you to not get excited.

Yanquiel Fernandez COL, OF, 19.7 – 2 for 5 with a double and homer at Single-A. Fernandez is quietly having a very exciting season for a 19 year old at Single-A with 16 homers and a 21.6%/8.4% K%/BB% in 93 games. He’s been red hot in August with a 1.092 OPS in 12 games. He’s 6’2” with some projection left on his frame and he has a vicious lefty swing. He’s severely underrated.

Endy Rodriguez PIT, C, 22.3 – Endy has been a man possessed for a few months now, and he took the show to Double-A last week and is showing no let up, ripping his 2nd homer in 5 games to go along with a 1.093 OPS. He might be passing Henry Davis as Pitt’s presumed catcher of the future, although there are plenty of at bats to go around for both of them with their depleted roster. This is just the beginning for Endy. He should really change his name to Beginy.

Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 23.4 – Nobody looks as good as Miller when he’s on, and he was on yesterday, going 7.1 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/2 K/BB at Double-A. The fastball gets into the upper 90’s and the secondaries are nasty. Here is a cut of all of his K’s from last night.

Blake Snell SD, LHP, 29.7 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10/0 K/BB vs. WAS. I almost didn’t include Snell in the Rundown because Washington’s lineup is Triple-A quality, but he’s been ripping it up for awhile now with a 2.08 ERA and 67/17 K/BB in his last 43.1 IP. Here is how I closed the Snell blurb in my off-season Top 1,000 Ranking, “Robbie Ray is a good reminder to never give up on strikeout machines with control problems.”

Brady Singer KC, RHP, 26.0 – 6 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. LAD. A start like this versus the Dodgers really cements Singer’s come up. He’s done it on the back of improved control with a career best 6% BB%. The 3.83 xERA is still worse than the 3.29 ERA, and the 25% whiff% is only slightly above average, so I don’t think he is a world beater, but he’s clearly taken a step forward.

Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 22.1 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 6/0 K/BB at High-A. It seems like the Dodgers just grow these guys on trees. Sheehan pumps mid to upper 90’s heat with a starter’s 4 pitch mix (change could be his best secondary). He has a 2.80 ERA with a 36.1%/11.5% K%/BB% in 54.2 IP. Control has been an issue for him his entire career, so he may end up in a multi inning pen role especially considering the Dodgers never ending depth, but the upside is legit.

Carson Williams TBR, SS, 19.1 – Williams smacked one down the opposite field line for his 15th homer in 92 games at Single-A. Even better, he didn’t strikeout once. The 32.6% K% is worrisome, and he’s only hitting .210 in his last 59 games since getting off to a hot start, but his upside is worth taking on the extra risk.

Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 20.4 – Yorke is finally heating up with his 3rd homer in his last 8 games at High-A. The season has been a struggle overall with a 23.5% K% and 78 wRC+ in 62 games. The hit tool just hasn’t been elite enough considering his modest power/speed combo to really keeping ranking Yorke extremely high. I still like him a lot, and he was banged up this year, but I’ve started to lower him in my rankings.

Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 23.9 – Colas continues to be out his mind at Double-A, going 3 for 5 with a dinger yesterday. He’s slashing .353/.439/.694 with 9 homers and a 23.5%/9.2% K%/BB% in 22 games at the level. He moved into my Top 50.

Jose Rodriguez CHW, SS, 21.1 – Rodriguez has gotten a bit forgotten about after a slow start, but he’s been heating up for awhile now. He went 2 for 5 with a double and homer yesterday at Double-A. In his last 39 games he’s slashing .317/.395/.549 with 7 homers, 20 steals, and a 25/20 K/BB. There’s probably still time to jump on the bandwagon as the hype hasn’t caught back up.

Edgar Quero LAA, C, 19.4 – Quero demolished his 14th homer in 90 games at Single-A, and while the video is poor quality, you can see the fielders barely move and the announcer claimed the ball landed on “E Street.” He’s put up over a 1.000 OPS in June, July, and August. He’s quickly becoming one of the most exciting teenage catcher prospects in the game.

Jake McCarthy ARI, OF, 25.1 – 1 for 3 with a walk and 2 steals. I’ve always liked McCarthy as one of my favorites in the fringy close to the majors bucket, and he’s showing why with 3 homers, 9 steals, and a .261 BA in 57 MLB games. He’s lightning fast with a 30 ft/sec spring speed (Top 1% of the league), he’s hitting the ball respectably hard with a 88.1 MPH EV, and he’s making contact with a 23.7% K%. I still have him in that “fringe MLB guy” bucket, but his fantasy friendly skillset makes him a no brainer stash if you have the room.

Gavin Cross KC, OF, 21.5 – Cross cracked his first homer in full season ball at Single-A. I have him ranked 13th on the FYPD rankings, and the reason I couldn’t go higher on him is because the hit tool wasn’t quite as good as the hitters ranked above him. That is playing out in the early going with a 27.8%/5.6% K%/BB% in 4 games at the level. Clearly way too small of a sample to draw any conclusions, but it means his value holds steady for me for now.

Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 21.6 – If you’re looking for an early 2022 Draft pro debut breakout, Rushing could be your guy. He cracked his 2nd homer in 8 games at Single-A and it comes with a 7/8 K/BB and 1.372 OPS. He was drafted 40th overall to one of the best organizations in the game on the back of 23 homers in 64 games in the ACC. He’s quickly rising up my ranks.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)