Ben Rice – Imaginary Brick Wall

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/6/26)

Michael Halpern — Mon, 06 Apr 2026 14:00:20 +0000

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/6/26):

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Slade Cecconi – CLE, RHP, 26.9 – I was the only man alive with a bat speed against target this off-season, and in fact, I might have been the only man alive to even look at bat speed against, hah, but when I dug in, there was one major takeaway, and in short, that takeaway was Slade motherfucking Cecconi. Hitters swing in Slow Mo vs. this man, and they were swinging in mud yesterday too. He went 6 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB vs. CLE. He has a well below average 70.0 MPH swing speed against this year, which is even better than last years mark. I was smelling that there was some value in bat speed against when I dug in for my 18 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2026, writing in part, “Chis Sale once again led all starters with a 70.9 MPH against, and Hunter Greene was 2nd at 71.1 MPH. Skubal was third and Skenes was 4th. I mean, the fact that those 4 guys are top 4 tells me that bat speed against means at least a little bit. The interesting takeaway from that is that Slade Cecconi is 5th.” The 93.5 MPH 4-seamer dominated in this one with a 44% whiff% (8 for 18). I loved the cutter this spring, and he went to it 29% in this one, using it to induce weak contact with a 72.8 MPH EV. The curve and sweeper were solid too, leading to a 30% whiff% and 87.1 MPH EV on the day. His first outing wasn’t as good as this one and the fastball velo is down a bit, so too early to call this one in either direction, but I’m pumped to continue following how my bat speed against does. And just looking at the early leaderboard this year, I see Andrew Painter sitting pretty at 69.6 MPH. Hmmm .. I like it.

Braxton Ashcraft – PIT, RHP, 26.6 – If you read my first Monday Morning Rundown of the season last week, you know I took my lumps, so let your boy have some fun with this one and take some laps. And nothing more fun than seeing one of my top pitcher targets go off against Baltimore. Ashcraft went 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB. The 96.2 MPH gas put up a 31% CSW%. The slider and sinker induced weak contact. And the curve and splitter missed bats and induced weak contact. That’s two good outings to start the season for Ashcraft, and while I would say he’s off to more of a solid start than a truly dominant one, as there are things to nitpick (like the 22.7% whiff%), we’ll take it. I know he started to get a ton of love as the off-season went along (thanks, Eno … hah, I’m just messing around, I’m an Eno fan! But I planted that flag back on October 6th in the first Dynasty Team Report I wrote up, and I literally wrote in that Pirates Team Report, “There is nothing worse than identifying targets/sleepers early in the off-season, only to watch their value skyrocket by the time your draft comes around. You just sit and pray everyday that some popular analyst doesn’t decide to name them one of their sleepers, because if they do, forget about it, all value is lost in the blink of an eye.” … hah, so can’t say I didn’t see it coming, but he deserved that love and I remained high. Long way to go but good start.

Edward Cabrera – CHC, RHP, 28.0 – Cabrera was another big target for me, and he put in Yeoman’s Work vs. CLE, going 5.2 IP with 1 ER, 0 ER, and a 4/5 K/BB. Sure those walks are scary considering his track record, but when it comes with a one hitter shutout, we won’t get so worked up over them. He went to the 93 MPH changeup 46% of the time and it notched a 35% whiff%. The heaters didn’t miss any bats, but he was pumping them in there at 97 MPH on the sinker and 95.5 MPH on the 4-seamer. The curve and slider combined for 2 for 5 whiffs. That’s two straight shutouts for Cabrera. Great start.

Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 23.2 – I hade Burns in a completely other Tier than any of the other fun young aces, already putting Top 10 dynasty pitcher status on him, and he hasn’t disappointed, going 6 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB vs. TEX. The 98.6 MPH fastball put up a 32% whiff% and the 91.2 MPH slider put up a 56 whiff%. He didn’t go to the changeup often, but it dominated when he did with 3 of 6 whiffs and a 56.8 MPH EV against. It’s his 2nd dominant outing of the season. I was all gas, no brakes on Burns and this is why. I still think he’s on a level of his own. True ace.

Maikel Garcia – KCR, 3B, 26.1 – Garcia got on the board for his 1st homer with a 101.5 MPH shot off Kyle Harrison, and it was only a matter of time with that 18.1 degree launch. Once he got a taste of that power uptick in 2025, I knew he was going to smell blood in the water and come for more. I saw the Ketel Marte rise since him being one of my top targets in 2024, and I thought he was coming for elite dynasty asset status this year, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “I don’t see why Garcia wouldn’t be emboldened by the success he had in 2025, and try to continue to build on that this off-season. Ketel Marte had that similar slow but steady rise in launch, barrels, and air pull, and I still see that same path for Garcia. Even if he doesn’t keep improving, this was a definite leveling up/breakout, and I think there could be more down the line especially with the new ballpark dimensions. I’m buying high.” … and I’m still buying high. I really do believe we could be looking at an elite or near elite dynasty asset in short order.

Joseph Dzierwa – BAL, LHP, 21.11, A+ – I know Dzierwa didn’t pitch yesterday, but I’m too pumped not to include him in this Rundown after his gem of a first outing. He went 6 IP with 1 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB. If you’re on my Patreon, you know he was my top true sleeper college FYPD arm that was getting zero hype, but he’s not getting zero hype anymore as his value already started to rise with a killer Spring Breakout appearance. And now this. Just watch this filth from a funky 6’9” lefty delivery. That is what I was watching when this guy was in college, saying he’s massively underrated. It’s only High-A and there is a long way to go, but you almost got your money’s worth already as a trade piece if you scooped him in your FYPD.

Miguel Sime – WSH, RHP, 18.11, A – Dzierwa was my top college sleeper target, but Sime was my top high school sleeper target, and the start to Sime’s career might be even nastier than Dzierwa. I was seriously on an island with both of these guys. His hype got going in Spring Breakout too, and now it’s going right into the regular season. He went 2.1 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at Single-A. I watched this entire outing and Single-A hitters were straight helpless up there. The breakers were filthy and he actually commanded them pretty damn well. He was then blowing upper 90’s heat right by guys. There is definitely still control/third pitch risk, but I’m even more all in now than I already was. Don’t make me choose between Sime and Dzierwa! It’s like making me choose a favorite child! But both are legit on a beeline for Top 100 status.

Kaelen Culpepper – MIN, SS, 23.3, AAA – And how about another FYPD Target while we’re on the subject, this one from the 2024 Draft, Culpepper is off to a hot start at Triple-A, going deep twice for his 2nd and 3rd bombs on the year. The first came off Payton Tolle (who pitched well as we are just awaiting his much deserved 2nd shot at the majors) at 101.3 MPH. When Culpepper gets ahold one to his pull side it is a thing of beauty as seen here off Tolle and then here for his 2nd of the day. The camera wasn’t close enough to see if he went Tongue Out, but I like to think he did. He definitely looks bigger and stronger to me this year too, and he’s hitting the ball harder too with a 50% Hard Hit% and 90.3 MPH EV. That is the main thing we needed to see, because the hit, speed and D were already there. The Twins don’t believe in Brooks Lee. That means Culpeper is on the way sooner rather than later at SS, although Marek Houston is going to figure in very soon as well. I’ve loved him for 2 years now, and his value is jumping even higher to start 2026. He basically needs to be owned in just about all leagues sizes, no matter how shallow or how few prospects are owned.

Jesus Made – MIL, SS, 18.11, AA – Checking on in the 18 year old Made at Double-A … 4 for 5 with an opposite field frozen rope dinger and a stolen base. Yea, I would say that will do. With Griffin, McGonigle, and Basallo all debuted, that makes Jesus Made my #1 non debuted prospect in baseball. But you better believe Leo De Vries is nipping at his heels. If I could name two #1’s, I would. But I can’t. That’s not how rankings work. There can only be one #1. It’s Made … for now.

Marek Houston – MIN, SS, 22.0, A+ – Houston needs to show more power. We know he needs to show more power. He knows he needs to show more power. And then he went out in his 3rd game at High-A and showed more power with an opposite field blast. Although it seemed he lifted that one into the wind stream and let mother nature do the rest. He’s off to a hot start to the season with a 232 wRC+ in 3 games. If the Hard Hit comes, he’s going to look like an FYPD steal, but long way to do and he’s still in the lower minors.

Charles Davalan – LAD, OF, 22.4, A+ – Davalan ripped up his 8 game pro debut in 2025, and now he’s picking right back up after hitting 2 homers in the same inning! That also might tell us something about the level of pitching he was facing, but we’ll gloss over that for a second hah. Davalan is your classic little man discount FYPD pick, and in an era where the little men are starting to get not all that discounted at all, he still did at 41st overall in the draft. LA jumped on that value. He’s little, but he cracked 14 homers his junior year and 10 homers his sophomore year, so the guy has pop. The contact is elite, he’s got good plate skills and plus speed. That is everything. I still fear he’s a 400-500 PA guy on the Dodgers if he doesn’t get traded, but that is only something we can keep in the back of your mind right now. He’s gonna fly up rankings this year.

Jack Leiter – TEX, RHP, 25.11 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 9/1 K/BB vs. CIN … The 97.3 MPH fastball put up a 56% whiff% (9 for 16). The changeup nearly matched it at 54% (7 for 13). And the slider chipped in with 2 for 4 whiffs. It all led to a 47% whiff% with a 86.7 MPH EV against. I was getting pretty excited about Leiter after his first outing, and I can’t help but feel even better after this one. We know he’s inconsistent. We need to see it for longer before really putting young ace on him, but man does he look electric. I’m buying it.

Kyle Harrison – MIL, LHP, 24.8 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 6/2 K/BB vs. KC … The Brewers are like, who needs secondaries anyway, we’ll get the breakout just on the back of that nasty fastball on it’s own. It sat 94.2 MPH in this one on 60% usage with a 30% whiff%. The slurve induced weak contact with a 77.5 MPH EV against the changeup was useless with 0 whiffs, 0 called strikes and a 110.8 MPH EV. His value was rising in spring due to the changeup, but the real reason his value was rising because Milwaukee is the model franchise, and they are proving once again their supremacy. The fact the secondaries haven’t been shining still matter to me, so I wouldn’t go too crazy on his value, but he clearly keeps trending up.

Kodai Senga – NYM, RHP, 32.6 – 5.2 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 7/2 K/BB vs. SFG … The 96 MPH put up a 29% whiff%. The forkball notched a 44% whiff%. The cutter and sweeper missed bats. It all led to a 32% whiff%. We already knew Senga was back this spring. He dominated in game 1 too. He’s fully back. Now he’s just gotta stay healthy.

Oneil Cruz – PIT, OF, 27.6 – I joked in my Patreon Rundowns that my 2025 Targets were so insane, that the few that didn’t hit are now going off in 2026 (Jordan Walker, Jose Soriano, Garrett Mitchell, Oneil Cruz), and Cruz keeps coming with a 111.8 MPH bomb yesterday. And better, yet, it came with 0 K on a 2 for 4 day. The swing and miss is still in crazy, full blown danger zone with a 48.5% whiff%. Honestly, I’m not even sure what to do with that hah … so I ain’t going back all in as the risk is still sky high, but I love to see the hot start to the season. I still own a lot of the guys I listed above from going after them in 2025. Those 2025 Targets are the gift that keeps on giving.

Ben Rice – NYY, 1B/C, 27.1 – Speaking of those 2025 Targets, Rice might have been my favorite hit from that group, and now he’s going next level nuclear after destroying a 110 MPH homer off Pete Fairbanks. He has a 96.9 MPH EV with a 1.380 OPS and .453 xwOBA. After being unlucky the last two years according to Statcast, the luck gods are in his favor this year. I’m scared to see what a lucky Ben Rice season looks like.

Drake Baldwin – ATL, C, 25.0 – Baldwin wasn’t a target for me in 2025, but there were more than enough catcher targets to go around for everyone last year, and like Rice, Baldwin’s taking it up a notch in 2026 after going 3 for 5 with a 108.4 MPH homer off Pfaadt. That gives him 4 homers with a 6.7% K% and .461 xwOBA. The launch is up a bit to 8.5 degrees. We are in a whole new era of catchers and it’s glorious.

Cole Young – SEA, 2B, 22.8 – Young’s power surge from the spring has transferred to the regular season with him smacking a 104 MPH homer for his 2nd in 10 games. He has a 157 wRC+. The underlying numbers don’t look quite as good as the surface stats though with a 85.4 MPH EV and 37.5% Hard Hit%. That Hard Hit% is up from 2025, so I see the uptick, but it’s still not in true power hitter territory. I still do worry that he’s not running much, and I also worry the power is only going to end up solid rather than truly impact. Which means the upside might not be huge, especially in Seattle, but I can’t hate on the start. Or I guess I can, because I just did hah, but I like him!

TJ Rumfield – COL, 1B, 25.10 – Rumfield was getting some deep sleeper love this off-season, and the guys touting him have to be hyped right now after he lifted off at 107.6 MPH for his 2nd homer. He now has a 168 wRC+ in 9 games. I can’t lie that I’m still not really buying in though. He just simply doesn’t hit the ball hard enough for me. He has a 84.3 MPH EV with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He didn’t hit the ball that hard at Triple-A either. The hit tool is solid but it’s not elite. Fun start, and maybe I’m wrong, but I still don’t see big upside here. I’m not buying high.

Mickey Moniak – COL, OF, 27.11 – Moniak on the other hand I was buying into more, and he’s looking to build on that 2025 breakout with 2 homers at 108.7 MPH and 103.1 MPH. He crushed the ball in 2025, and he’s back at it in 2026. I’m in here.

Foster Griffin – WSH, LHP, 30.8 – Hit em with that kitchen sink baby as Griffin threw a 7 pitch mix, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/3 K/BB vs. the Dodgers. He only sits 91.2 MPH, but the myriad of secondaries had the Dodgers in stiches, leading to a 30% whiff% overall. That’s his 2nd excellent outing of the season as Griffin is establishing himself as a legit fantasy option. Back end kitchen sink guy is likely still the projection, but the mid-rotation upside is definitely popping it’s head up. With Cody Ponce down for the count, Foster has to pick up the pieces for his fallen Expat.

Parker Messick – CLE, LHP, 25.5 – 5 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 6/3 K/BB vs. CHC … there is nothing prospect rankers hate more than low velo. These guys can literally prove it in the majors, and prospect rankers will still give them all kinds of disrespect. But you know what, Messick averaged 93.3 MPH in this one, which isn’t even low velo for a lefty, and the pitch put up a more than respectable 25% whiff%. The changeup was untouchable with 7 of 10 whiffs. The breakers missed some bats and he mixed in a sinker and cutter, all leading to a 35% whiff% overall. His first start was a gem against the Dodgers. It’s pretty clear this dude isn’t going anywhere. I gave him love as a Top 75 prospect and Top 300-ish dynasty asset, and he continues to climb those rankings.

Christian Zazueta – LAD, RHP, 21.6, A+ – 4 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 7/1 K/BB at High-A … Zazueta is a hype beast breakout candidate this year, and his first real start at High-A went just about how his starts at Single-A went last year. Which is that he’s a K/BB King, and a K/BB King is the best kind of King there is as a pitcher. He put up a 29.7/5.9 K%/BB% in 2025. He’s 6’3” with a potentially plus 93+ fastball/changeup combo. Fastball/changeup righties guys can often dominate the lower minors before finding trouble against more advanced competition, so as a 21 year old, we need to see it in the upper minors before really going crazy, but keep him on your radar.

Nathan Flewelling – TBR, C, 19.5, A+ – Flewelling was a popular sleeper catcher prospect this off-season, and he got on the board for his first at High-A as a 19 year old going lefty on lefty. He also has a 50% K% in 3 games, so still a long way to go and a lot to prove, but he looks to be in the next wave of top catcher prospects.

Conor Essenburg – ATL, LHP/OF, 19.6, A – Essenburg was a $1.2 million dollar bonus baby, and while I was unsure if they were going to unleash him as a pitcher or a hitter, it looks like hitter won with him cracking his first pro homer. He utterly obliterated this thing and then hit us with a much deserved stop and stare. I think it left the park. He’s 6’2′, 200 and you can see that power clearly. He’s also hitting .182 with a 40% K% in 3 games, so as with a lot of these super talented high school players, it will come down to if the hit tool will play or not. If it doesn’t though, he’s got the backup plan of going back on the mound.

Kevin Alcantara – CHC, OF, 23.8, AAA – Alcantara is off to a smoking start at Triple-A, crushing his 4th homer in 8 games. These things aren’t chip shots either with him putting up a 93.7 MPH EV in the early going. Dude is 6’6” with no joke power. The same problems from the off-season are still there though, which is the hit tool (35.8% whiff%), and really the biggest problem, which is that he didn’t get traded. He desperately needs a trade and for a team to unleash his truly special talent and power/speed combo. There will be hit tool troubles, but the right team should stay patient with him.

Roki Sasaki – LAD, RHP, 24.5 – 5 IP, 5 hits, 6 ER, 5/3 K/BB vs. WAS … it was nice while it lasted. I don’t think anyone was buying after his first solid appearance and I honestly think the Dodgers are only starting him because they feel like they have to/it’s the right thing to do. He signed for just $6.5 million under MLB’s international free agent rules. Without those rules, he would have probably gotten over $100 million. I think they feel like they owe him this. But I will say the underlying numbers for this start don’t look bad at all. He put up a 32% whiff% with a 85.6 MPH EV against. All 3 of his pitches missed bats. I don’t think this outing should be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. A breakout isn’t impossible even if I’m not betting on it.

George Klassen – LAA, RHP, 24.2 – Klassen made his MLB debut and it was rough, going 2.2 IP with 3 hits, 2 ER, and a 4/5 K/BB vs. SEA … the filthy stuff was there with the 97.1 MPH fastball putting up a 40% whiff%. The slider notched a 67% whiff%. The 40% whiff% with a 86.6 MPH EV overall looked good, but as you can see, the control just wasn’t there at all. That is what he’s struggled with his entire career. I love the stuff obviously, but I hate the franchise, and I just don’t trust the Angels at all to call Klassen one of my guys. He’s definitely in that pitching prospect bucket I love shopping in, but I ended up grabbing other guys in that bucket this year.

Dalton Rushing – LAD, C, 25.1 – 1 for 3 with his 1st homer at 103 MPH in his first start since March 30th and with only 5 PA on the season … James Tibbs, meet your ghost of MLB Debut future …

James Tibbs III – LAD, OF, 23.6, AAA – Didn’t homer … now I only give you updates when he doesn’t homer. More noteworthy …

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWaIl)

2026 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings: Top 80 Catchers (Patreon)

Michael Halpern — Tue, 11 Nov 2025 14:16:13 +0000

Catchers sure aren’t what they used to be. Back in my day, a catcher needed to take a boatload of PED’s to actually be a fantasy beast. Also, we have so many catchers these days who merely dabble in catching. I don’t remember many, or really any of those types back in the day. You either caught, or you didn’t. Now we have these tweeners who (maybe) catch enough to retain eligibility, but also play nearly full time at DH/1B. The ABS Challenge system is coming to the majors now too. It’s fun time to be alive for a catcher. For fantasy, you really don’t have to stick your neck out at all to get a good catcher. In a 12 teamer, you will probably be able to get a good one for like $1 in an auction, or late in drafts. Even in medium leagues to deeper leagues you can likely wait. You need to find little edges and differentiators in fantasy to win, and my strategy has really always been to wait on catcher while using as much draft capital to build as beastly of a team as possible at other spots. Sometimes it comes back to bite me, but with how deep catcher is this year, it’s a no brainer strategy. Top 5 free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the 2026 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings: Top 80 Catchers:

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Arizona Diamondbacks—Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Chicago Cubs (free)—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—New York Yankees (free)—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Seattle Mariners—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

1) Cal Raleigh – SEA, C, 29.4 – Raleigh’s insane 2025 was very obviously a career year. I don’t think anybody is now expecting him to be a perennial 60 homer bat, or even 50 homer bat. The 28 year old career year is textbook, well almost textbook, as he does have one thing that says we shouldn’t discount a real leveling up here. And that is that he’s a catcher. Catcher’s are known for delayed offensive breakouts because of how much time they spend on their defense. And Raleigh did show real improvement in his underlying numbers too. The 26.7% K% and 13.8% BB% were both career bests, so it looks like there was some maturation of the plate skills. His 49.6% Hard Hit% is a career best, and while it’s not up majorly from 2024, it is up majorly from where it was in 2022-2023. His lift and pull was also up with career bests in launch (25.2 degrees) and Air Pull% (38.4%). Only Isaac Paredes had an Air Pull% even close to that (Paredes beat him out by 0.1 at 38.5, but the next highest was Tork at 31.8%). And the cherry on top is that he ran a ton for a catcher with 14 steals in 18 attempts. He was just having fun out there. So while it’s almost certain that 2025 will be the best year of his career, it does look like he’s leveled up from a 30+ homer bat to a 40+ homer bat. Catchers take a beating behind the plate, so who knows how long he will be able to hold that level, but I’m betting on a few more monster power seasons at least. – 2026 Projection: 90/42/110/.244/.346/.541/10

2) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 21.7 – Basallo is going to follow the Junior Caminero track to a T. I can feel it. Caminero came up and was horrific in his first little taste in 2023 (which I told you not even to look at those numbers) and then was mediocre in his more extended taste in 2024 (which I advised, “if there is any buy window based on the small, mediocre MLB sample, I would be all over it.”), before having a monster explosion this season. Basallo is going through that exact same adjustment period, looking mediocre in his pro debut with a .559 OPS in 31 games, but just like Caminero, please completely ignore those numbers. His 75.5 MPH swing is near elite, and while not as elite as Caminero, it’s still damn good. He demolishes the baseball like Caminero with a 94.2 MPH EV, 57.4% Hard Hit%, and 23 homers in 76 games at Triple-A, and also like Caminero, it’s always come with solid strikeout rates while being extremely young for the level. Even with some chase and whiff in their game, these are the type of bats where it really doesn’t matter. And Basallo lifts and pulls more than Caminero. It’s inevitable that Basallo is going to start raking his face off in the majors in the very near future. Whether it comes at catcher or 1B or DH or a combination of all of them, I don’t know, but it doesn’t really matter. He’s going to be one of the top young power hitters in the game real soon. – 2026 Projection: 67/25/81/.249/.317/.446/3 Prime Projection: 92/34/111/.266/.339/.522/4

3) Shea Langeliers – SAC, C, 28.4 – Langeliers gets the small nod over Rice because we still have to sweat out how long Rice will actually retain catcher eligibility. In dynasty, having that stability that you know you are locked in at the catcher position for several years is valuable, if for nothing else than piece of mind. And Shea has a case for it even taking defense out of the equation. He had a breakout season on the back of much improved contact rates, bringing his K% down 7.5 points to 19.7% and his whiff down 4.1 points to 25.1%. It led to a .277 BA vs. a .224 BA in 2024. It didn’t impact his power at all either, jacking out 31 homers in 123 games (he missed some time with an oblique) with tons of lift/pull (16.3 degree launch with a 21.9% Air Pull%) and good Hard Hit (90.8 MPH EV with a 44.8% Hard Hit%). He put up a 1.018 OPS post break in 57 games, so the breakout was actually ramping up as the season went along, and it wasn’t just the result of his minor league home park with 19 homers on the road vs. 12 at home. It’s a little scary putting Langeliers 3rd when the .328 xwOBA is much worse than his competition, but we know Statcast underrates lifting and pulling, and the xwOBA was much better in the 2nd half (.351). If anyone’s profile here mimics Cal Raleigh’s career path, it’s Langeliers, and Raleigh just had an all time season at 28 years old. Maybe Langeliers can follow in his footsteps. – 2026 Projection: 74/33/84/.256/.319/.498/6

4) Ben Rice – NYY, 1B/C, 27.1 – Last off-season, when it looked like Rice had nowhere to play, when it looked the Yanks didn’t fully believe in him, when he was coming off a season where he hit .171 … one man stood in the face of all that adversity and said, fuck it, I’m still targeting him whether you like it or not, writing in his Target blurb, “Listen, I don’t have the slightest clue how he ends up with a full time job either. Even with Goldy only on a one year deal, the Yanks could so easily acquire another vet next off-season. And he’s already 26 years old. But sometimes I just want to bet on the bat, and let things shake themselves out, and that is how I feel with Rice. He’s obliterated every stop of the minors, and while he was always on the older side, you can only dominate the competition put in front of you. Then in his very first taste of the bigs, the man put up a 15.6% Barrel% in 50 games. All he does is rake. Is it not great that the surface were so bad with a .269 wOBA, yea, it’s not great, but that is where the value comes in. I don’t know how. And I don’t know when. But I do know who. And that who is Ben Rice.” … and then Rice went out in 2025 and rewarded my faith in him in more ways than I even expected. Not only did the big offensive breakout come with 26 homers and a 133 wRC+ in 138 games, but he also caught 36 games, giving him catcher eligibility for 2026. That is a major bonus I wasn’t even planning on. The funny thing is, the surface stats still didn’t come close to matching the underlying numbers with a .358 wOBA vs. .410 xwOBA, but when the underlying numbers say you are the 7th best hitter in the baseball, you can underperform them and be just fine. He improved everywhere you look from his rookie year with a 93.3 MPH EV, 56.1% Hard Hit%, 21.5% whiff%, and an 18.9% K%. He’s a lift and pull machine, so it’s not even like he has the type of profile that should underperform Statcast this much. He’s underperformed it considerably for two straight years, so I wouldn’t expect anything different in 2026, but there is definitely a chance he was just unlucky two years in a row. I wouldn’t rule out another level of offensive performance in 2026. And defensively, it sure seems like he will once again rack up full time at bats at catcher, 1B, and DH, giving him a good shot to retain catcher eligibility for at least a few more seasons. I was buying hard when the price was cheap last off-season, and I’m still buying high this off-season. – 2026 Projection: 84/30/81/.265/.348/.511/4

5) William Contreras – MIL, C, 28.3 – Contreras just doesn’t lift and pull enough (7 degree launch with a 11.1% Air Pull%) to give you that ceiling you want from a fantasy player. It resulted in only 17 homers. When catcher was a toxic wasteland, his stability put him at the very top of the rankings, but now with so many more exciting options, I can’t put him at the very top. He does everything else well though with 150 games played, a 91.1 MPH EV, 48.5% Hard Hit%, and a 18.2/12.7 K%/BB%. That K%, BB% and also 24.2% whiff% were all career bests, so even in a mediocre year, there were signs of improvement. The .260 BA is clearly at the low end of his ability. If you want stability over excitement, I can still see going Contreras #2 or #3, but what can I say, I like to live dangerously – 2026 Projection: 87/20/80/.275/.365/.463/7

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

New York Yankees 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Michael Halpern — Tue, 14 Oct 2025 13:56:49 +0000

The 2026 off-season festivities officially kicked off on the Brick Wall last week with the 2026 Dynasty Team Reports. Like during the regular season, I will release a freebie here on Imaginary Brick Wall on some Mondays (in this case Tuesday, I like to keep you on your toes sometimes with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. Off-season content will include these Dynasty Team Reports, along with Deep Positional Rankings, Strategy articles, Target articles, 2026 Projections, Prime/Peak Projections, predicting future prospect lists, AFL/Winter League Updates, the Top 100+ FYPD rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, and the 2026 Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings. But first, here is the New York Yankees 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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Arizona Diamondbacks—Kansas City Royals—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Texas Rangers

Hitters

Ben Rice – NYY, 1B/C, 27.1 – Last off-season, when it looked like Rice had nowhere to play, when it looked the Yanks didn’t fully believe in him, when he was coming off a season where he hit .171 … one man stood in the face of all that adversity and said, fuck it, I’m still targeting him whether you like it or not, writing in his Target blurb, “Listen, I don’t have the slightest clue how he ends up with a full time job either. Even with Goldy only on a one year deal, the Yanks could so easily acquire another vet next off-season. And he’s already 26 years old. But sometimes I just want to bet on the bat, and let things shake themselves out, and that is how I feel with Rice. He’s obliterated every stop of the minors, and while he was always on the older side, you can only dominate the competition put in front of you. Then in his very first taste of the bigs, the man put up a 15.6% Barrel% in 50 games. All he does is rake. Is it not great that the surface were so bad with a .269 wOBA, yea, it’s not great, but that is where the value comes in. I don’t know how. And I don’t know when. But I do know who. And that who is Ben Rice.” … and then Rice went out in 2025 and rewarded my faith in him in more ways than I even expected. Not only did the big offensive breakout come with 26 homers and a 133 wRC+ in 138 games, but he also caught 36 games, giving him catcher eligibility for 2026. That is a major bonus I wasn’t even planning on. The funny thing is, the surface stats still didn’t come close to matching the underlying numbers with a .358 wOBA vs. .410 xwOBA, but when the underlying numbers say you are the 7th best hitter in the baseball, you can underperform them and be just fine. He improved everywhere you look from his rookie year with a 93.3 MPH EV, 56.1% Hard Hit%, 21.5% whiff%, and an 18.9% K%. He’s a lift and pull machine, so it’s not even like he has the type of profile that should underperform Statcast this much. He’s underperformed it considerably for two straight years, so I wouldn’t expect anything different in 2026, but there is definitely a chance he was just unlucky two years in a row. I wouldn’t rule out another level of offensive performance in 2026. And defensively, it sure seems like he will once again rack up full time at bats at catcher, 1B, and DH, giving him a good shot to retain catcher eligibility for at least a few more seasons. I was buying hard when the price was cheap last off-season, and I’m still buying high this off-season. He’s my #2 ranked catcher behind Cal Raleigh, and he ranked 82nd overall on my End of Season Top 450 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 84/30/81/.265/.348/.511/4

Jasson Dominguez – NYY, OF, 23.2 – With how the Yanks used Dominguez down the stretch and into the playoffs, or more accurately, not used him, there is some fear about his role headed into 2026, but I still believe the Yanks are all in on developing him into a long term core piece. It would be so silly if they weren’t. He was a 22 year old who put up a 49.6% Hard Hit% with a 90.6 MPH EV, and did it with a 74.1 MPH swing. The special bat talent is so clearly there, and the 27.2% whiff% and 26.8/9.6 K%/BB% isn’t bad at all. He also stole 23 bags with a 28.7 ft/sec sprint. That is a really strong foundation to build on. He certainly has things to work on, like his defense, hitting lefties, and pulling the ball in the air, but that is what development is all about. Not everyone is going to be fully formed by 22 years old. And Dominguez is the type of talent with the type of upside that you want to be patient with. Bellinger and Grisham are both free agents, so it sure seems to make sense to leave a starting job open for Dominguez to take going into 2026. He won’t get endless leash, and he’ll have to show signs of development, but I’m betting he will. He’s a buy for me this off-season if his current owner is turned off. – 2026 Projection: 78/18/71/.263/.340/.428/28 Prime Projection: 88/25/83/.269/.351/.468/31

Pitchers

Cam Schlittler – NYY, RHP, 25.2 – I wasn’t on Schlittler last off-season, which was a mistake, but I like to think I made up for it in a major way during the season. Before he was getting any major hype, before he was getting any Top 100 love, before he got the call to the majors, I rang the major buy bell on him in June, writing in the Rundowns, “The stuff is nuts, he’s 6’6”, 225 pounds, and he’s been a strikeout machine in the upper minors. He’s so easily a Top 100 pitching prospect, and he should probably be valued right in that tier with Jump, Tong, and Yesavage.” … He was already starting to fly up my rankings in May too. Not too long after that he got the call to the majors in July, and the rest is history. He very clearly proved he belonged in that already hyped, pitching prospect tier, and quite frankly, he may have proved to be the best of that bunch with a 2.96 ERA and 27.6/10.2 K%/BB% in 73 IP. He was lights out in 14.1 playoff innings too. He did it on the back of an elite 98 MPH fastball that he threw 54.7% of the time, notching a 27.8% whiff% and a +9 Run Value. His beast status is so clearly locked in, but I can’t lie, I fear he might get a little overrated this off-season. None of his other pitches really stood out. His cutter was his best secondary, but it only put up a 27.3% whiff% with a +1 Run Value. The curve put up a lowly 21.8% whiff% and he barely went to the sweeper. To not have a true dominant, whiff, put away secondary is a tad concerning to me, especially when he also has below average control. The ERA estimators also had him as more of a high 3’s true talent level this year. Don’t get me wrong, I still think he’s a beast, just like I did back when there was a good chance you could have picked him up for free in your league, which I know a lot of my subscribers did, but with his massive ascent, I would be a bit too scared to pay up for him like he’s already a young true ace. I think the price might be a tad too high for me this off-season. – 2026 Projection: 13/3.59/1.24/187 in 170 IP

Gerrit Cole – NYY, RHP, 35.7 – I wrote this in the Corbin Burnes blurb in the Arizona Diamondbacks Team Report on the Patreon, but it’s worth repeating for Cole, and really, almost the entire blurb can be repeated for Cole as their dynasty value profiles are starting to look very similar, albeit Cole is also 4 years older. 2025 couldn’t have made it any clearer that taking the Tommy John discount on pitchers is a total roll of the dice. McClanahan got hurt again and never returned. Strider, Eury, and Alcantara all looked rustier than the 30 year old lawn furniture my parents gave me when I moved into my house. I think it’s time to buy some new lawn furniture. I’m overdo Andrew Painter was simply not the same perfect pitching prospect he was pre-injury. While on the other hand, Emmett Sheehan returned and immediately re-established himself as one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game. deGrom was awesome, but even he was diminished from true prime. Bradish looked even better than before, and Bieber looked damn good for the most part. Really nobody knows exactly what level of health/rust these guys will have when they return. And while Cole is generally the type of guy I like taking the Tommy John discount on, he was already in decline even before the injury. His days of being that 30%+ K rate guy were already done with a 27% K% in 2023 and then a 25.4% K% in 2024. His whiff rates match that decline. So you are buying a 35 year old pitcher who was already in decline coming back from Tommy John, which we see can be a treacherous recovery. He underwent the surgery on March 11th, so he may miss a big chunk of 2026 as well depending on the recovery. It’s just a lot, and I fear his name value will keep his price higher than I’m willing to go. – 2026 Projection: 7/3.71/1.20/130 in 130 IP

Bullpen

David Bednar – NYY, Closer, 31.6 – Hometown boy David Bednar, born and raised in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, risen to fame as the dominant closer on his favorite childhood team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, was told to pack up his shit, because he was getting shipped off to the Big City, New York. Ain’t no loyalty in baseball. Was he going to wilt under the big lights? Could he handle the pressure that many have succumbed to? You damn right he could, as he came riding in on horseback and done stole the closer job out from under Devin Williams with a 2.19 ERA and 36.1/9.3 K%/BB% in 24.2 IP with his new team. When the pressure was even higher in the playoffs, he was even better with a 1.50 ERA and 40.9/4.5 K%/BB% in 6 IP. He proved his down 2024 was just an aberration, likely due to injury and pitch tipping. The stuff is filthy with 97 MPH heat and two nasty bat missing secondaries in his curve and splitter. He doesn’t get quite treated like it, but he’s a truly elite closer. – 2026 Projection: 4/2.88/1.09/81/34 saves in 62 IP

New York Yankees 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) George Lombard – NYY, SS, 20.10 – I get why Lombard gets ranked extremely high on many real life lists. He’s a good SS with projectable power at 6’2”, good athleticism, a mature approach, and some semblance of a good feel to hit. Scouts love this type, and for good reason. But for fantasy, I find it hard to already put him in that nearly elite prospect range. He slashed .215/.337/.358 with 8 homers, 24 steals, and a 26.4/13.6 K%/BB% in 108 games at Double-A, Granted he was only 20 years old, and he hit a lot better at the age appropriate High-A (1 homer with a 193 wRC+ in 24 games), but it’s still not screaming elite fantasy stud to me. I put him in the mold of a Geraldo Perdomo and Jeremy Pena, two guys who are obviously very good and both had excellent 2025 seasons, but neither of those guys got this type of elite prospect love, and it took them into their mid 20’s until they really came into their own. So I like Lombard a lot. I have him as a Top 50 fantasy prospect, which is really good, but I just can’t shoot him up in to that Top 20 range already. He should end the 2026 season in that area though if things go right. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 86/18/73/.261/.338/.430/26

2) Spencer Jones – NYY, OF, 24.11 – Let’s be honest, the odds are really good that Jones just won’t be able to hit enough to truly be a fantasy beast. The guy had a 41.6% whiff% and 36.6% K% in 67 games at Triple-A as a 24 year old. That is beyond the danger zone. That is the Chernobyl nuclear disaster zone, the Exclusion Zone, the Black Zone … okay I think that is all the nicknames for the Chernobyl area. A guy who hits .200, if he’s lucky, can only provide so much fantasy value no matter how big the power/speed combo, but boy oh boy is that power/speed combo humongous. He’s 6’7”, 240 pounds with a 94.8 MPH EV and plus speed. He hit 35 homers with 29 steals in 116 games on the season. If there is an exception to the rule, it will be him. A .200/30/30 guy would be absolutely hysterical, but that is obviously a pipe dream. If he were 22 years old, I could see giving some more leeway for the hit tool, but he’s going to be 25 for most of 2026. The most optimistic comp we can point to is Joey Gallo, who had a career 106 wRC+ in 939 games with a 41.4% whiff%. Matt Wallner is another good one with a career 131 wRC+ in 273 games with a 36.6% whiff%. Jones has to improve majorly to even get down to Wallner’s whiff%, but at least it’s example that it’s not impossible to thrive with super high whiff rates. All indications also point to the Yankees still really believing in him. The upside is so massive, I think they want to roll that dice and eventually give him a shot, and because I’m a sucker for upside, I’m also willing to roll the dice. I still think he’s a Top 50-75 prospect just on the off chance he can get that hit tool into a good enough area. Maybe I’m crazy. – 2026 Projection: 15/4/19/.192/.279/.399/3 Prime Projection: 68/23/73/.218/.309/.438/17

3) Dax Kilby – NYY, SS, 19.5 – If you know me at all, you know I’m the OG pro debut breakout hype beast, going back to 2016, and nobody had a pro debut breakout like Kilby had. He slashed .353/.457/.441 with 0 homers, 16 steals, and a 13.6/16.0 K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. Sure he didn’t hit a homer, but when it comes with a 91.9 MPH EV and 45.6% Hard Hit%, I’m not that concerned about it. The only flaw of the debut was the 1 degree launch, but this type of profile can still thrive with a low launch, and if he can raise that launch, watch out. I was already a big fan before the debut, ranking him highly in my original FYPD Rankings, writing, “Selected 39th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Kilby is a projectable 6’2” with a vicious and smooth lefty swing that has power potential written all over it if he can put on good weight. He’s currently more of a line drive, hit tool focused prospect with good speed, so either the power can tick up naturally to enhance that profile, or he can make an approach change to really tap into that hopeful raw power gain in the future. I love the swing, projection, hit tool and athleticism, which is a lot to like. If you can’t draft high enough to grab one of the top high school bats with big present power, you might as well take your shot on a guy who could develop that power down the line.” … obviously his awesome debut, where he showed more raw power than even I was expecting, is going to push his price way up, but I think he’s worth that high price. He ranked 10th overall on the Updated Top 60 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon), and I’m not even sure that is high enough. I’m all in. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 93/20/79/.278/.357/.445/30

4) Carlos Lagrange – NYY, RHP, 22.10 – Carlos Lagrange gives me major Dellin Betances vibes when watching him, and the similarities are really striking in so many ways. I have a hard time believing any Yankees fan that watches Lagrange won’t get those exact same vibes. Lagrange is a tall drink of water at 6’7”, 248 pounds with an upper 90’s fastball that gets over 100 MPH, a plus breaker, a solid, lesser used changeup, and double below average control. The control looked like it was taking a huge step forward in the beginning of the year at High-A with a 7.1% BB% in 41.2 IP, but it ballooned when he got to Double-A with a 14.9% BB% in 78.1 IP, showing the major control risk is still there. The upside is equally as high though with a 3.53 ERA and 33.4% K% in 120 IP on the season. I can’t help but feel he is most likely going to take the same path as Betances and become a hopefully elite reliever, and possibly closer, but the door isn’t even close to shut on him remaining a starter. Just look at Jacob Misiorowski, who is equally as tall and had almost equally bad control. And ending up a closer is a pretty damn good outcome anyway. – 2026 Projection: 2/3.82/1.29/32 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.30/1.19/80/33 saves in 65 IP

5) Elmer Rodriguez Cruz – NYY, RHP, 22.8 – Don’t call it a breakout. Just look at Cruz’ career minor league stats. He put up a 1.88 ERA in 38.1 IP in 2022, a 2.60 ERA in 55.1 IP in 2023, a 2.91 ERA in 89.2 IP in 2024, and now a 2.58 ERA in 150 IP in 2025. Just because nobody seemed to notice all that much or care all that much, doesn’t mean Cruz hasn’t been dominating professional baseball for 4 seasons now. And this year he was able to continue the dominance in the upper minors with a 2.64 ERA and 30.3/8.2 K%/BB% in 61.1 IP at Double-A. He has the talent to back up the excellent production with size (6’3”), velocity (95+ MPH heat), pitch mix (he threw a 4-seamer, sinker, curve, change, cutter, and probably his best secondary, the slider, in his one start at Triple-A to end the season), and bat missing ability. That is a lot of boxes to check. The control/command took a step forward in 2025, but it’s still on the below average side. I wouldn’t put top of the rotation upside on him, but maybe that is just the continuation of the underrating he’s gone through his entire career. An impact mid-rotation starter wouldn’t be a bad outcome though, and that deserves a spot in the Top 100 Prospects. – 2026 Projection: 3/4.07/1.31/62 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.68/1.22/175 in 175 IP

6) Ben Hess – NYY, RHP, 23.7 – Hess was underrated in First Year Player Drafts last off-season, and he’s still underrated now. The Yanks took him 26th overall for a reason, and that reason was that he’s a big man at 6’5”, 255 pounds with big stuff, and while he didn’t have that truly dominating Junior Year breakout, the breakout came in pro ball this year. He put up a 3.22 ERA with a 33.0/10.9 K%/BB% in 103 IP at High-A and Double-A, and he was even better at Double-A with a 2.70 ERA and 31.3/9.0 K%/BB% in 36.2 IP. He dominated with a plus mid 90’s fastball/curve combo, and the lesser used changeup is really good when he goes to it too. He also throws a solid slider. The control/command is below average, likely limiting his reasonable upside projection to a mid-rotation starter, but a high K mid-rotation starter is an impact fantasy starter. He should be valued as a back end Top 100 pitching prospect, but he doesn’t seem to get that kind of respect, making him a really good pitching target. – 2026 Projection: 2/4.14/1.33/47 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.71/1.24/171 in 165 IP

7) Bryce Cunningham – NYY, RHP, 23.3 – Cunningham was on the way to being a major pitching prospect breakout after the first 46.2 IP of his pro career with a 1.93 ERA and 25.7/6.0 K%/BB% at High-A, but he just didn’t look the same after returning from a shoulder injury he suffered in June. He put up a 5.11 ERA with a 20.0/16.4 K%/BB% in 12.1 IP over 5 outings after returning, and he looked just as bad in his latest AFL start. The most concerning part is that the stuff was down. The mid 90’s fastball that could get into the upper 90’s was down to about 93 MPH. The hope is that he was just taking it easy to end the season coming off the injury, and that he’s just trying not to hurt himself again before having a full off-season to ramp back up. That does make sense to me, and that is the way I’m leaning, but it does add some extra risk heading into the off-season. When healthy, he’s a beast of a man at 6’5”, 230 pounds with the big stuff to match. Along with the mid 90’s heat, he has a plus, bat missing changeup that is probably his best secondary, a solid slider, new cutter, and he threw the curve in the AFL game. The most impressive part of the start to his season was the excellent walk rate, because he had below average walk rates in college, but that disappeared when he returned. He might have been knocking on the door of the Top 100 had he remained healthy, but the injury put a halt to that, and he’s now a Top 200-ish prospect for me. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 10/3.85/1.29/147 in 155 IP

8) Dillon Lewis – NYY, OF, 22.10 – Lewis was the 394th overall pick in 2024 despite going 22/20 with a .371 BA in his Junior year in the Atlantic Sun Conference. He was one of only 2 players to go 20/20 in Division 1, and yet, nobody believed in him. He was a very athletic 6’3”, 205 pounds, so he looked the part too, and yet, still nobody believed in him, Well, I guess the Yanks did in the 13th round, giving him a $150,000 signing bonus, but in hindsight, it’s pretty wild he was so disrespected. And that hindsight was provided by what he did in pro ball in 2025, slashing .237/.321/.445 with 22 homers, 26 steals, and a 23.5/10.2 K%/BB% in 122 games split between Single-A and High-A. His K/BB actually improved majorly at High-A, which is big to see with a 20.8/10.8 K%/BB% at that level, and it’s big to see because this dude absolutely smokes the ball with a 93.7 MPH EV and 54.6% Hard Hit%. He also has no issues lifting and pulling. The upside here is truly pretty damn massive, and you still hear barely anything about him. The reason for that is because nobody really believes in the hit tool, and a 21/22 year old in the lower minors with a .237 BA definitely isn’t good. He also doesn’t have a standout OF glove, projecting to be a solid corner outfielder. This is the type of player who can potentially breakout on the Marlins at 27 year old, so I get the lack of hype, but I mean, those EV and Hard Hit numbers deserve real respect. The power/speed combo is mouth watering for the price he’s going to go for this off-season. He’s a great high upside target. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 64/21/71/.239/.307/.433/16

9) Brendan Jones – NYY, OF, 23.11 – I talked about Lagrange inevitably reminding Yankees fans of Dellin Betances, so let’s keep the nostalgia going with Jones, because the shades of Brett Gardner are strong with him. The controlled and simple lefty swing looks super similar to Gardner, and so does his size at 5’10”. The profile is super similar too, slashing .250/.365/.415 with 7 homers, 28 steals, and a 20.9/15.3 K%/BB% in 80 games at Double-A. That was good for a 131 wRC+. He doesn’t have big raw power, but he can lift and pull with a 33.1% GB% and 44.4% Pull%, giving him the chance to take advantage of that short porch, just like Gardner did. And like Gardner, he has a standout OF glove. It’s most likely a 4th outfielder profile, but that is what they said about Gardner, and if he does work his way into a full time job, the speed will make a fantasy impact. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 66/10/48/.247/.324/.380/25

10) Chase Hampton – NYY, RHP, 24.8 – I could have went a number of ways with this 10th spot as nobody really fully deserves it, so let’s give it to Hampton who was trending towards being a consensus Top 100 prospect before injuries derailed his career. He had an elbow injury tank his 2024 season where the stuff and production were both down majorly, and then he once again felt elbow pain when ramping up for the 2025 season, succumbing to Tommy John surgery in February 2025. At full health, he’s 6’2, 200 pounds with mid 90’s heat, a diverse set of secondaries (slider, curve, cutter, change), and solid control/command. He put up a 3.63 ERA with a 33.1/8.4 K%/BB% in 106.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A in 2023. If he comes back 100% from the surgery, the hype can definitely get going again, but who knows how he will look after 2 lost seasons. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 6/4.18/1.34/103 in 120 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Ben Rice blurb, the beauty of dynasty leagues especially, is that you don’t have to panic if a player you believe in doesn’t have a perfectly clear path to a full time job to start the season. People have short memories, so maybe you don’t remember how his lack of clear path was absolutely killing his value last off-season, but it was real. The same thing happened with Spencer Torkelson, and Torkelson was also a major off-season target for me and big hit. Taking advantage of that playing time uncertainty created monster value to be had on both of them, with both of them going for soooooo cheap. Even a little uncertainty of a players full time job status will scare so many fantasy/dynasty managers away, and it’s an area to 100% take advantage of when it happens. I get in redraft leagues being a bit scared, but in dynasty, you have the long term view to fully stay the course if you believe in the bat. And Rice and Torkelson both had very clear reasons to believe in their bats.

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Arizona Diamondbacks—Kansas City Royals—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Texas Rangers

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/12/25)

Michael Halpern — Mon, 12 May 2025 15:06:09 +0000

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Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 23.1 – Make it double digits for Pete Crow as he destroyed his 10th homer of the year into the upper deck at Citi Field. I’ve been pounding the table for Pete Crow Armstrong for so long now that I don’t have a table in my house that isn’t cracked and broken. I have to eat dinner standing up now. The Crow now has a 13.8% Barrel%, 90 MPH EV, and 22.1 degree launch in 41 games and is on pace for almost 40 dingers with 50 steals. I ranked him all the way up at 64th overall in the off-season Top 1,000 Rankings, starting off his blurb by writing, “Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted,” and ending with “Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak.” Well, I think now people know. He moved all the way up to 33rd overall on the recently updated April Top 423 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and I’m not even sure that was high enough. I would value PCA as a Top 20 dynasty asset at the very least right now. Damn he’s fun.

Luis Morales – OAK, RHP, 22.7 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 11/1 K/BB at Double-A. The Bubba Chandler 2.0 glow up at Double-A just keeps on cementing. He was pumping upper 90’s heat for whiffs all day, which he would then follow up with vicious sliders. He utterly demoralized the competition. After his 7th strikeout vs. Logan Cerny, I’ve never seen someone walk away from the plate so dejected. He just dropped his bat and hung his head in shame as he walked back to the dugout. I saw the writing on the wall this off-season, starting Morales’ Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “This isn’t a comp, but Morales reminds me a lot of where Bubba Chandler was sitting last off-season. Like Chandler, Morales is a huge talent ($3 million signing bonus in 2023), with a scouts dream build at 6’3”, 190 pounds (although Chandler was more built up and wider), super obvious humongous stuff, below average control, and mediocre results at High-A. Morales put up a 4.22 ERA with a 24.9/10.7 K%/BB% in 81 IP at the level while Chandler put up a 4.75 ERA with a 25.6/10.9 K%/BB% in 106 IP at the level.” … and now just like Chandler, Morales is blowing up at Double-A with a 2.97 ERA and 31.5/9.8 K%/BB% in 36.1 IP. He already rose all the way up to 33rd overall on my Updated Top 323 May Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that just dropped on the Patreon last week, and it still seems like there is time to get in. He’s still underrated.

Addison Barger – TOR, 3B/OF, 25.5 – It’s time to target Barger everywhere. He went 2 for 4 with a 107.2 MPH homer and 103.5 MPH single yesterday. I wanted to make him a major target this off-season, but the only thing holding me back was his defense, and right now, he actually has a positive 2.6 defensive value, which is getting me pumped, because his bat is no joke. He has an elite 76.3 MPH swing with a 13.6% Barrel%, 96.1 MPH EV. 13.5 degree launch, and .362 xwOBA in 59 PA. The plate skills are taking a big jump forward too with his K% all the way down to 16.9% (26.7% in 2024) and his Chase all the way down to 20.2% (31.5% in 2024). He’s still in a scrum for playing time, and it might be a platoon role, but I’m sorry, you can not keep this bat off the field. Barger is a major target right now. Go after him.

Caleb Durbin – MIL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – 0 for 3 and now has a .581 OPS with 0 barrels, an 83.7 MPH EV, and a negative 1.4 defensive value in 22 games. I like Durbin. I’m rooting for the little cutie at 5’7”, and he makes a ton of contact with a 5% K%, but 3B is for power hitting beasts, and Milwaukee just so happens to have one of those behemoths ripping up the minors right now …

Brock Wilken – MIL, 3B, 22.11 – and that man’s name is Brock Wilken. I held strong on Wilken’s value this off-season, putting him in my Top 100 at #87, and he’s rewarding that patience with a big year at Double-A. He went 3 for 4 with a dinger yesterday and he now has 8 homers with a 26.2/23.4 K%/BB% and 176 wRC+ in 33 games. He had a down year in 2024, but that was due to getting rocked in the face with a pitch on April 11th, sustaining multiple facial fractures. He talked about how hard it was to come back from that mentally this off-season. He’s over it now though. And he’s coming for that 3B job sooner rather than later.

Rafael Devers – BOS, 3B, 28.6 – 2 for 3 with a 110.4 MPH homer off Seth Lugo. First off, it’s great to see the shoulder problems seem to be behind Devers. His 18.8% Barrel%, 95.6 MPH EV and 61.6% Hard Hit% are all career bests. It sure seems like he’s taking to DH quite well … possibly too well, because now he refuses to move off the position. And I mean, I get it. I played 3B and 2B in my career through high school, and I also hated when they made me play 1B. I felt like a fish out of water. I wasn’t good at it. It was hard to learn. I get it … but … unlike Devers, I didn’t refuse to play it hah. I did the best I could and I did what was best for the team. So even though I relate to Devers, hopefully he comes around eventually.

Josh Jung – TEX, 3B, 27.3 – 2 for 4 with a 107.4 MPH homer for his 4th in 32 games. Jung hasn’t exactly been blowing up with a .732 OPS, but I’m extremely encouraged by his start. He got hit by a pitch and broke his wrist just 4 games into the 2024 season, and he didn’t look the same when he returned later that year. We’ve seen wrist injuries linger and even end player’s careers (Alex Kirilloff), so I love the see that Jung has a 13.2% Barrel% with a 95.5 MPH FB/LD EV on the season. He’s back to hitting the ball very hard, and he’s doing it with career bests in K% (21.1%), whiff% (23.7%) and Chase% (30.7%). He’s starting to look like the special hitter trajectory he was on after his rookie year in 2023. Buy now while the surface stats still look mediocre.

Lars Nootbaar – STL, OF, 27.6 – I’ve been ringing the buy bell on Nootbaar all season with his launch all the way up to 17.7 degrees, and unsurprisingly, the dingers keep on coming with him cracking a 108.1 MPH homer off Mackenzie Gore for his 6th in 40 games. He’s always hit the ball really hard with an elite plate approach, and seeing neither of those strengths in his game drop off even a smidge with the added launch is damn impressive. In fact, he’s never hit the ball harder with a career high 50.8% Hard Hit%, or swung the bat faster with a 74.5 MPH swing (up almost 2 MPH from 2024). He’s also on a career high stolen base pace with 4 steals. This is a full on blow up and I’m buying hard here.

Wilyer Abreu – BOS, OF, 25.10 – 3 for 4 with a 107.9 MPH homer, 107.4 MPH single, and 106.9 MPH single. Abreu jumped up to #161 overall on the Updated Top 437 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and here is what I wrote for him, “I’m ashamed of myself for not being higher on Abreu. He was one of my favorite target hits ever, and I let him down this off-season. He has double plus bat speed, he hit the ball hard, he lifts it, and the plate skills are taking a big step forward this year. One the flip side, he’s not hitting lefties well and he’s not playing against them very often either. And the biggest concern, which scared me this off-season, was Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer on the way. It’s a lot of mouths to feed.” … He’s still not playing vs. lefties very much, but the damage he is doing vs. righties more than makes up for it. His .411 xwOBA is in the top 6% of baseball. He’s also an above average defensive player. Treat this man like the young star he is. His value continues to rise.

Heliot Ramos – SFG, OF, 25.8 – 2 for 2 with a 105.4 MPH homer off Pablo Lopez at Minnesota. He now has 6 homers with a .968 OPS on the road vs. 1 homer with a .611 OPS at home. This dude could be a superstar hitting almost anywhere else other than San Francisco, but even dealing with that handicap, he’s so damn good he’s still powering through with a strong year. He has a 14.2% Barrel% with a 91.2 MPH EV and .365 xwOBA in 40 games. The hit tool is taking steps forward too with career bests in K% (23.5%) and whiff% (23.8K%). I was all in on Ramos this off-season, naming him a target due to his short and quick swing, and he’s one of many that is proving betting on the bat speed data standouts was not for naught. So many of my targets are paying off. Ramos would have paid off more if not for San Francisco, but nothing we can do about that.

Hunter Goodman – COL, C/OF, 25.6 – Speaking of bat speed breakouts, Goodman’s double plus swing made him a fun target once it was clear Colorado was serious about letting him loose at catcher, and he’s using that powerful swing to keep on hitting dingers, going 3 for 5 with a 108.7 MPH homer and a 116.2 MPH double!!!! He now has 6 homers with a .835 OPS in 25 games, and while he’s likely getting lucky as the .310 xwOBA and 32% whiff% aren’t quite as impressive as the surface stats, it’s clear he has an impact fantasy bat for a catcher at the least.

Brooks Lee – MIN, SS/3B/2B, 24.2 – I rang the 5 alarm target bell on Lee last week in the Rundowns, and he went off yesterday, going 3 for 5 with a 100.9 MPH homer, 100.7 MPH single and 100.3 MPH single. What got me so excited is that this is a high contact player who was seeing big gains in his power. The 11% Barrel%, 89.2 MPH EV and 41.1% Hard Hit% are all career highs by far. His righty swing is almost 3 MPH faster at 73 MPH and his lefty swing is up 1.2 MPH to 70.3 MPH. The fantasy upside is capped by how damn slow he is though. You can time him with a sundial, as my high school baseball coach used to love to yell at me. His 25.9 ft/sec sprint is in the bottom 20% of the league. So you are getting very few steals and it hurts him in runs too, but we are seeing a very real power uptick, and that is worth buying.

Ben Rice – NYY, 1B, 26.7 – For the people waiting on Ben Rice to all of a sudden spot hitting, you can keep on waiting, because Rice isn’t going anywhere. He went 1 for 2 with a 111.2 MPH bomb off Mitch Spence for his 9th in 36 games. You already know Rice was a major target for me this off-season. Here is what I wrote about him in my off-season 19 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2025 (A Collection from the 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports), “4) For even the most iron willed dynasty owner, it is a major gut punch when a prospect you love gets the call to the majors, struggles hard, and then gets sent back down to the minors. When it happens to an elite or near elite universally hyped prospect, it’s much easier to stay level headed and hold strong, but when it happens to a good, but not necessarily great prospect it can be much tougher to hold on. Trade value plummets for the non elite guys, and you start to question if their team truly believes in them, thinking they might not get another chance so soon. But let us use Lawrence Butler (and Parker Meadows too) as a lesson to not let a demotion rattle us if we still believe in a player’s skillset. Even elite prospects can struggle in their first taste or two of the majors, so certainly we need to give some grace for non elite ones as well. How to apply that for this season? Well, Ben Rice is staring us right in the face. Rice is not an elite prospect, but he is a relatively well liked one, and he took almost the exact same Butler path in the majors with great underlying numbers (15.6% Barrel%) and poor surface stats (.613 OPS in 173 PA). Admit it, you are questioning how much the Yanks really believe in him and if he will get another chance. I get it, because I am too, but I’m going to use Butler and Meadows as my pillars of strength to not be so quick to give up on Rice. I still like him long term, even with the Goldy signing.”

Mark Vientos – NYM, 3B, 25.4 – 2 for 4 with a 101.4 MPH homer off Mathew Boyd for his 5th in 37 games. It hasn’t been the best start for Vientos, but I would 100% stay the course here. He’s brought his K rate all the way down from 29.7% in 2024 to 20.4% in 2025, which is huge to see, and it’s backed up by a 4.6 percentage point drop in whiff% and a 3.9 percentage point drop in chase%. He’s improving in the areas we wanted to see improvement, and we know the monster power is in there with a 90.5/94.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s an easy hold, and a buy low if you can.

Mike Burrows – PIT, RHP, 25.5 – 4.2 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 11/2 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball sat 94.7 MPH and put up a 39% whiff% while the changeup put up a 86%!!! whiff%. The slider missed some bats too, leading to a 45% whiff% overall. He now has a 2.63 ERA with a 32.7/9.1 K%/BB% in 27.1 IP. I’ve always felt Burrows was too underrated, giving him a solid ranking at #273 this off-season, and with his dominance in Triple-A, he rose into the Top 200 in the latest update. The Pirates Triple-A rotation is probably better than some MLB rotations right now with Burrows, Chandler, Ashcraft, Harrington and Barco all knocking on the door. I have no idea how they fit all of these guys into the rotation, but these things usually work themselves out.

Chen-Wei Lin – STL, RHP, 23.5 – Lin didn’t pitch especially well yesterday, going 2.2 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER (4 unearned) and a 3/0 K/BB at High-A, but this is just your reminder that he’s back on the mound after getting a late start to the season, and it’s also your reminder to get in now before his value starts to explode. He’s 6’7” with upper 90’s heat and bat missing secondaries. It’s only a matter of time before everyone realizes how good this kid is.

Drew Beam – KCR, RHP, 22.1 – 4 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB at High-A. Beam’s skills are officially transferring to pro ball with a 2.55 ERA and 24.8/5.7 K%/BB% in 35.1 IP at High-A. He’s 6’4”, 208 pounds with average to above average stuff (two 94 MPH fastballs, a curve and a changeup) that plays up due to the plus control. Kansas City’s ballpark will be perfect for this type of profile too. He might not have huge upside, but especially in KC, he can be a solid mid rotation starter. He’s a solid pitching prospect.

Braden Nett – SDP, RHP, 22.11 – 5 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. I’ve been sleeping on Nett, but that ends now, as he looked quite impressive yesterday. His fastball got up to 98 MPH and he was just straight blowing it by guys. He combines the heat with a couple of bat missing breakers, and it’s resulted in a 4.20 ERA and 27.4/9.6 K%/BB% in 30 IP. There is still major bullpen risk with major control problems throughout his career, but the walk rate is taking a big step forward this year, and the big stuff is worth betting on.

Cole Carrigg – COL, OF, 22.10 – I was waiting to see if Carrigg could keep up the great lower minors production in the upper minors, and he’s answered that question quite easily in 2025 after blasting off for 2 more homers yesterday. He’s now slashing .288/.388/.563 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 27.3/11.6 K%/BB% in 28 games at Double-A. The K% is a tad too high, but it’s been coming down of late, and the fantasy upside is shining through. I would value him a Top 100 fantasy prospect right now.

Mike Sirota – LAD, OF, 21.11 – Speaking of newly minted Top 100 fantasy prospects, Sirota just cracked my Top 100, and then he cracked 2 more bombs at Single-A. He’s making a mockery of the level, slashing .354/.443/.687 with 7 homers, 1 steal, and a 21.7/13.0 K%/BB% in 24 games. I would like to see him run a bit more, and would also obviously like to see him keep this up at higher levels, but this was a potential Top 10 draft pick coming into the 2024 season, and now he has the production to match the talent. The Dodgers done did it again.

Jefferson Rojas – CHC, SS, 20.0 – Rojas joined the 2 homer parade yesterday, going 3 for 4 with 2 homers at High-A, and he’s now slashing .300/.387/.513 with 4 homers, 5 steals, and a 14.0/10.8 K%/BB% in 21 games. He’s never been my favorite prospect, but it sure looks like the power is ticking up this year, which he combines with his already strong across the board profile. His value is on the rise.

Jacob Reimer – NYM, 3B, 21.2 – Say hello to the best qualified hitter at High-A. Jacob Reimer leads all hitters at High-A with a 198 wRC+, and he tacked onto his lead yesterday with his 6th homer in 30 games. He was once upon a time a deep FYPD target for me in a tier with Alex Freeland, Luke Adams, and Nacho Alvarez. None of them has done anything in the majors yet, but from their non existent hype at the time, all of them have seen big value rises, and now it’s Reimer’s turn to take centerstage. He’s got real power at 6’0”, 205 pounds, the plate approach is solid (20.0/11.1 K%/BB%) and now he’s lifting and pulling a ton more with a 36% GB% and 46.7% Pull%. He just moved into my Top 300, and he might be pushing Top 200 value right now.

Brailer Guerrero – TBR, OF, 18.10 – The Brailer Guerrero breakout continues to quietly lurk just under the radar, but it got a bit louder yesterday with him blasting his first homer of the season at Single-A. He’s now slashing .308/.438/.487 with 1 homer, 4 steals, and a 29.2/18.8 K%/BB% in 11 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. That’s good for a 166 wRC+. The K rate and 56.5% GB% are both a bit higher than optimal, but this dude can crush the ball and is a breakout waiting to happen. It might be time to pounce, and at the least keep a very, very close eye on him.

Tim Elko – CHW, 1B, 26.4 – Elko popped onto the back at #309 of the Updated Top 323 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon), writing, “He’s a classic Quad-A slugger, MLB bench bat type with 10 homers and a 29.6 K% at Triple-A, but Chicago is in full rebuild, and if they give him time, he’ll hit dingers” … right on cue, Chicago called him up, and he did in fact hit dingers with a 101.4 MPH homer off Sandy Alcantara for the 1st of his career. He’s 1 for 6 on his young career. The BA could be terrible, but the power is no joke.

Matthew Lugo – LAA, OF, 23.10 – Speaking of hitting your first MLB dinger, Matthew Lugo joined that club yesterday with a 108 MPH homer off Felix Bautista. He did it coming off the bench for Jo Adell, he of the 65 wRC+ and negative 3.5 defensive value. He has a negative 0.4 WAR right now. I might be insane, but I actually don’t want to give up on Adell yet as his .330 xwOBA is actually much better than his surface stats, but I mean, he’s going on his 6th year of being brutal. The problem is that Lugo hasn’t been all that great at Triple-A himself with a 65 wRC+, so I don’t think a change here is imminent, but I liked Lugo this off-season, and even with the slow start, he would be worth a shot if he does find his way into the lineup more. Just a keep your eye situation right now.

Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 22.10 – The wait is over. Lawlar is getting the call to the big league club after demolishing Triple-A all season. He just ranked 2nd overall on my Updated Top 323 Prospects Ranks, and while it doesn’t seem like there is an open spot for him, Arizona claims they will be able to find at bats for him. Optimally you want to call a guy up like this to a full time job, but he’s too good to not be helping the big league club, so I get it. He’ll get eased in, and then when Eugenio Suarez’ contract runs out after this season, he will take over 3B for good.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)