Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 75 Starting Pitchers

The top 75 starters are a mix between boring mid rotation veterans, and the second tier of high risk, high reward youngsters. Picking the right player or two from this group can really make your draft.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

51) John Lackey CHI-NL – Put up a career best 2.77 ERA last season as a 36-year-old. Will now have the powerful Cubs offense for run support. 2016 Projection: 14/3.52/1.25/160

52) Scott Kazmir LAD – Ride him in the first half, trade him at the deadline before the inevitable collapse. 2016 Projection: 12/3.43/1.20/164

53) Jaime Garcia STL – Can’t stay healthy, but has a career pitching line of 3.31/1.26/573 in 724.1 IP. He isn’t going to strike many guys out, but the guy can pitch. 2016 Projection: 9/3.38/1.19/128

54) Jordan Zimmerman DET – Was trending in the wrong direction even before the move out of the NL East. Looks like he might get comfortable in this “safe and boring” tier for the next few years. 2016 Projection: 13/3.62/1.24/155

55) Shelby Miller ARI – The centerpiece in the trade heard round the world. Dave Stewart better hope he pitches better than my projection. 2016 Projection: 12/3.61/1.26/162

56) Wei-Yin Chen MIA – Moving from a hitter’s park in the AL East to a pitcher’s park in the NL East. I like. 2016 Projection: 11/3.43/1.20/158

57) Kenta Maeda LAD – Total unknown. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up much better, or much worse than my projection. 2016 Projection: 12/3.55/1.23/157

58) Collin McHugh HOU – Came back down to earth last season after a fantastic rookie season in 2014. Gravity’s a bitch. 2016 Projection: 13/3.70/1.24/167

59) Gio Gonzalez WASH – Tried to turn himself into a groundball pitcher in 2015 (with a terrible infield defense behind him), before scraping that plan in the 2nd half (86 K’s in 81 IP). 2016 Projection: 11/3.68/1.30/176

60) Jake Odorizzi TB – The prototypical Tampa Bay starter. Don’t expect him to pitch deep in games. 2016 Projection: 10/3.69/1.22/167

61) Andrew Heaney LAA – Had a strong rookie season in 2015. Doesn’t have the huge K upside, but has all the makings of a very solid pitcher. 2016 Projection: 11/3.66/1.23/152

62) Kyle Hendricks CHI-NL – Struck out 88 batters in 81 IP post all-star break last season. Has a career 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 260.1 IP. There is a lot to like here. 2016 Projection: 10/3.72/1.22/160

63) Aaron Nola PHI – Steady young starter without the big K upside. 2016 Projection: 9/3.69/1.23/148

64) Hector Santiago LAA – Fully transitioned into a starter last season, and predictably tired out after reaching a career high in IP. Could be an intriguing sell high candidate if he gets off to another hot start. 2016 Projection: 10/3.69/1.29/158

65) Ian Kennedy KC – The ratios might not look pretty, but he has struck out over a batter per inning the last two seasons. 2016 Projection: 10/3.90/1.28/178

66) Jason Hammel CHI-NL – After stratospheric 1st half in 2015, absolutely imploded in the 2nd half. Still averaged over a K per inning. 2016 Projection: 10/3.81/1.24/165

67) Ervin Santana MIN – You know what to expect at this point. 2016 Projection: 12/3.88/1.28/156

68) Andrew Cashner SD – Looked like a promising young pitcher on the rise coming into last season. Now he looks like an aging has-been. One year can sure change a lot. 2016 Projection: 9/3.71/1.29/161

69) Eduardo Rodriguez BOS, SP – (Update: Will start the season on the DL with a right knee injury. He is expected to make his season debut sometime in May.) Big, strong lefty with tons of potential. Fenway Park and the AL East do not provide the most hospitable pitching conditions, though. 2016 Projection: 9/3.78/1.26/155

70) Jake Peavy SFG – 34 years old going on 40. 2016 Projection: 11/3.71/1.20/140

71) Clay Buchholz BOS – 31 years old going on 25. Are we still waiting on his upside? 2016 Projection: 10/3.74/1.28/125

72) Phil Hughes MIN – Seems to go through a dead arm period every other year of his career. This should be one of the live arm years if the trend holds. 2016 Projection: 11/3.92/1.27/153

73) Anibal Sanchez DET – Still a major health risk, but if healthy, he is a much better pitcher than he showed last season. 2016 Projection: 9/3.75/1.26/150

74) Anthony DeSclafani CIN – Relatively safe young starter with some upside. 2016 Projection: 10/3.89/1.30/161

75) Kevin Gausman BAL – Baltimore’s recent history with developing pitching prospects has been brutal. He was the #4 overall pick in the 2012 draft, though, and has some K upside as well. 2016 Projection: 9/3.82/1.27/148

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 50 Starting Pitchers

The top 50 starters are jam packed with young, talented upside. That means risk as well. But I would rather try to strike gold, than pick a safe mid rotation starter.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 75)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

26) Francisco Liriano PIT – Inconsistent and injury prone, but those strikeouts are too enticing to pass up. 2016 Projection: 12/3.44/1.25/178

27) Masahiro Tanaka NYY – Not going to let a little torn UCL scare me off. Willing to take the risk for his upside. 2016 Projection: 14/3.40/1.09/163

28) Michael Wacha STL – Collapsed in September, pitching to a 7.88 ERA. Could have been due to fatigue after reaching a career high in IP. 2016 Projection: 13/3.41/1.18/162

29) Carlos Martinez STL – Draws comparisons to Pedro Martinez, mostly because of his size, but his stuff isn’t too far off either. 2016 Projection: 12/3.40/1.27/179

30) Garrett Richards LAA – Coming off a torn knee ligament, Richards didn’t have the season many were hoping for in 2015. The ingredients are still there for him to put it together in 2016. 2016 Projection: 13/3.52/1.22/175

31) Michael Pineda NYY – FIP (3.34) was much better than his ERA (4.37). Still some injury risk stemming from his 2012 shoulder surgery. 2016 Projection: 12/3.48/1.14/168

32) Drew Smyly TB – Injury plagued 2015, but showed enormous promise when he did pitch. 2016 Projection: 10/3.39/1.18/157

33) Jeff Samardzija SFG – Had a complete meltdown in 2015. The stuff is the same, so I expect him to get it back together this season. 2016 Projection: 13/3.68/1.23/180

34) Steven Matz NYM – Wrote about Matz in my Matz vs. Severino article. 2016 Projection: 12/3.49/1.23/156

35) Marcus Stroman TOR – Didn’t seem any worse for the wear after returning from a torn ACL in September. Recommence the hype train. 2016 Projection: 13/3.57/1.20/160

36) Yordano Ventura KC – Roller coaster 2015, but finished strongish with a 3.56/1.32/98 pitching line in 91 IP post all-star break. 2016 Projection: 13/3.56/1.28/166

37) Julio Teheran ATL – After starting his career on fire his first two seasons, hit a small road block last year. Potential remains the same. 2016 Projection: 10/3.53/1.21/175

38) Lance McCullers HOU – (Update: Expected to begin the season on the DL after experiencing shoulder soreness. Return date is uncertain, but he is not expected to miss an extended period of time.) Strong rookie season, but I’m not expecting a full repeat. 2016 Projection: 12/3.62/1.27/159

39) Raisel Iglesias CIN – Everyone’s favorite sleeper that nobody is sleeping on. 2016 Projection: 10/3.63/1.23/175

40) Jose Quintana CHI-AL – Safe and boring but he keeps getting the job done year after year. 2016 Projection: 11/3.51/1.25/172

41) Joe Ross WASH – Tyson Ross’ little brother. Comes with the same nasty slider. 2016 Projections: 11/3.59/1.24/170

42) Hisashi Iwakuma SEA – Age and injury concerns. Still put up a pitching line of 3.05/1.02/91 in 100.1 IP post all-star break. 2016 Projection: 12/3.45/1.11/155

43) Patrick Corbin ARI – Came back strong from Tommy John surgery last season. Could take another step in 2016. 2016 Projection: 12/3.55/1.21/154

44) Justin Verlander DET – Came back from the dead in 2015. Might have some juice left in him after all. 2016 Projection: 12/3.66/1.22/167

45) Jimmy Nelson MIL – Wrote a Jimmy Nelson, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper post. 2016 Projection: 10/3.51/1.25/178

46) Carlos Rodon CHI-AL – Has serious control issues, but his strikeout potential is enormous. 2016 Projection: 11/3.69/1.30/182

47) Taijuan Walker SEA – Another young starter with tons of upside. Had some issues with the long ball last season. 2016 Projection: 11/3.72/1.19/175

48) Luis Severino NYY – Wrote about Severino in my Matz vs. Severino article. 2016 Projection: 12/3.68/1.26/158

49) Yu Darvish TEX – Expected to miss the first two months of the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. I’m betting on him to hit the ground running when he returns, but who really knows. 2016 Projection: 9/3.46/1.22/155

50) James Shields SD – Had an extremely uncharacteristic 2015, seeing huge spikes in K’s and BB’s. Not exactly sure of what to expect in 2016. 2016 Projection: 12/3.70/1.26/184

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 25 Starting Pitchers

Strikeouts have absolutely exploded around baseball. MLB averaged 7.8 K/9 in 2015, setting a new all-time record. That broke the previous record of 7.7 K/9 set in 2014, which broke the previous record of 7.6 K/9 set in 2013. In fact, MLB has broken its own all-time K/9 and total strikeout record every season since 2008. You can find those all-time stats here. It’s actually pretty cool to look at. And the 2016 top 25 starting pitchers have all contributed more than their fair share into ushering in this new era of the strikeout. Will we see 7.9 K/9 in 2016?

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 50)/(Top 75)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

1) Clayton Kershaw LAD – What can I say that hasn’t already been said? 2016 Projection: 19/2.23/0.91/249

2) Max Scherzer WASH – Will singlehandedly carry you in K’s. 2016 Projection: 16/2.88/0.99/263

3) Jake Arrieta CHI-NL – Was his 1.77 ERA low enough to convince you his 2014 breakout was for real? 2016 Projection: 18/2.69/1.02/210

4) Madison Bumgarner SFG – Bumgarner gets a slight edge over Sale due to his far superior pitching conditions. 2016 Projection: 17/2.90/1.07/221

5) Chris Sale CHI-AL – Ballpark and Chicago’s poor defense are the only things keeping him from ranking even higher on this list. 2016 Projection: 14/3.10/1.06/242

6) Matt Harvey NYM – After shaking off the rust coming back from Tommy John surgery, Harvey put up a pitching line of 2.19/0.92/79 in 78 IP after the all-star break. 2016 Projection: 16/2.79/1.05/208

7) Jacob deGrom NYM – Like Arrieta, actually improved on his 2014 breakout. 2016 Projection: 14/2.96/1.08/202

8) Corey Kluber CLE – Bad luck and poor defense might have been the reasons for his bloated 3.49 ERA vs. his 2.97 FIP. I’m betting that his FIP is the better indicator for next season. 2016 Projection: 13/3.00/1.09/227

9) Stephen Strasburg WASH – Contract year. Injury plagued 2015, but his 1.90/0.75/92 pitching line in 66.1 IP post all-star break gives you an idea of his insane potential. 2016 Projection: 14/2.99/1.08/218

10) David Price BOS – Price was right for Price this offseason, scoring a $217 million contract with Boston. Has already more than proven himself in the AL East and in hitter’s parks.  2016 Projection: 16/3.19/1.12/207

11) Noah Syndergaard NYM – Thor laid the hammer down on the league in his rookie season. Expect more of the same in year two, if not better. 2016 Projection: 14/3.09/1.10/211

12) Jose Fernandez MIA – Might be on a soft innings limit after pitching only 51.2 IP in 2014 and 64.2 IP in 2015. The fact he still ranks 12th shows how dominant he is. 2016 Projection: 11/2.76/1.08/193

13) Gerrit Cole PIT – Made the jump last season into Ace status. I wouldn’t expect a 2.60 ERA again, though. 2016 Projection: 15/3.24/1.13/198

14) Chris Archer TB – Second half collapse is worrisome, but those 252 strikeouts sure do look nice. 2016 Projection: 14/3.30/1.16/213

15) Carlos Carrasco CLE – Another Cleveland pitcher with a bloated ERA (3.63) compared to his FIP (2.84). 2016 Projection: 13/3.29/1.08/210

16) Felix Hernandez SEA – There are whispers his 2015 troubles were due to an ankle injury. Some think it was the 2,262.1 career IP catching up to him. Whatever it was, I’m not writing him off, but also not expecting a full bounce back. 2016 Projection: 15/3.25/1.16/204

17) Zack Greinke ARI – Moving from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. Not overpaying for his career year. 2016 Projection: 16/3.15/1.18/192

18) Dallas Keuchel HOU – Doesn’t have the strikeout upside of the players ranked above him, but should receive plenty of run support from the strong Houston lineup. 2016 Projection: 17/3.27/1.19/181

19) Jon Lester CHI-NL – Safe pick. Started 30+ games 8 years in a row. Should enjoy strong run support as well. 2016 Projection: 16/3.25/1.15/194

20) Tyson Ross SD – Still has not overcome his control issues, but he racks up K’s and limits home runs. 2016 Projection: 11/3.32/1.23/201

21) Cole Hamels TEX – The league switch and advancing age limits his upside. Still a safe pick to be a strong #2 fantasy starter. 2016 Projection: 13/3.43/1.17/192

22) Danny Salazar CLE – Finally a Cleveland pitcher whose ERA (3.45) was better than his FIP (3.62). Has the strikeout upside fantasy owners love. 2016 Projection: 12/3.40/1.17/198

23) Sonny Gray OAK – 2.73 ERA. 3.45 FIP. Second year in a row he outperformed his FIP, so I wouldn’t expect him to fall off a cliff in 2016. 2016 Projection: 11/3.31/1.15/177

24) Adam Wainwright STL – If you have any doubt about Wainwright’s ability to make a full comeback this season, you have to check out this quick radio interview (which I discovered on Reddit’s fantasy baseball forum). 2016 Projection: 14/3.27/1.15/169

25) Johnny Cueto SFG – Fell off a cliff after the trade to Kansas City. The move back to the NL and a pitcher’s park somewhat revives his fantasy value. 2016 Projection: 13/3.30/1.12/173

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)