Ozzie Albies – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on February 7, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Top 1,000 Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon)

I gave you a day to catch your breath with the Top 583 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings dropping on Monday. Now it’s time to unveil the Top 1,146 2024 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on the Patreon. Top 80 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and Prime Projections for every player. The All-in-One Spreadsheet is also coming soon. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in late March. Here is the Top 1,000 Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

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1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings only. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – First there were asterisks for juiced players. Then there were asterisks for juiced balls. And now there are asterisks for juiced contracts. The 700* million dollar man (*680 million of it deferred) tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and seems like he opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

7) Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more). He doesn’t run enough with only 12 steals to truly be considered in the same tier as the guys ranked above him, but in any league that devalues speed, he is right there with them. He’s an OBP God with an 18.6% BB% and .410 OBP. It’s his 4th year in a row with more walks than strikeouts. His 6.7 degree launch is low, but he’s launch proof with a 98.7 MPH FB/LD EV that is 4th best in all of baseball. It led to a career high 35 homers. Everything seems to be setting up for Soto to have one of those silly statistical seasons that won’t even look real, and then he will land one of those silly contract numbers that won’t even look real. 2024 Projection: 115/38/115/.287/.422/.546/13

8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 27.2 – Just call him the quiet killer because no elite player gets less hype than Kyle Tucker. He was one homer shy of going 30/30, and he did it while putting up career bests in both K% (13.6%) and BB% (11.9%). He has well below average speed with a bottom 33% sprint speed, but he once again proved stolen bases are not just about pure speed, there is a major skill component to it as well. Maybe it’s fitting he has the shortest blurb out of his elite dynasty brethren, because he’ll just continue to quietly kill your fantasy competition. No fanfare necessary. 2024 Projection: 99/30/115/.285/.365/.520/28

9) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

10) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.9 – The only two categories Yordan isn’t a beast in are games played and steals. He dealt with left hand soreness in March that delayed the start of his spring training, he missed about a week in April with a neck injury, and he missed almost 2 months in June and July with an oblique injury. It limited him to just 114 games. The surgeries he’s gotten on both of his knees are also still fresh in everyone’s mind, but the fact that none of his issues had to do with his knees is encouraging to me. He played in 135 games in 2022 and 144 games in 2021. I think it’s one year too early to really slap him with the injury prone tag. And he’s too elite to be too risk averse with a career .978 OPS and a .440 xwOBA in 2023, which was the 3rd best mark in the league behind only Judge and Acuna. I’m not getting too hung up on the injury risk quite yet. 2024 Projection: 94/37/111/.296/.403/.589/1

11) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.8 – While many were jumping ship after a down and injured 2022, I kept the faith by ranking Robert 30th overall, and he responded with the type of year we all knew he was capable of, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.9%/5.0% K%/BB% in 145 games. He laughed in the face of chase rate (40.5%) and chased his way to a career best 15.4% barrel%. His speed bounced back with a top 16% sprint speed, and he played in a career high 145 games. I wish I could say he is now completely out of the woods and we can trust him completely, but the injury black cloud always seems to be lurking. His season ended on September 24th with a sprained MCL in his knee which would have kept him out for up to a month if the season didn’t end a week later. He also dealt with hamstring, quad, calf, hip, and finger injuries throughout the season. Rostering Robert definitely feels like playing Press Your Luck, begging to avoid any whammies (no whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP). Robert is elite enough where you can’t live completely in fear of his next injury, but projecting him for a fully healthy season feels optimistic. 2024 Projection: 88/32/84/.268/.320/.528/19

12) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.11 – Judge’s 97.6 MPH EV is the highest average exit velocity in the history of Statcast. The only years Judge didn’t lead the league in average exit velocity was 2015 when he was in the minors, and 2020 during the shortened season. His .468 xwOBA not only led the league, and it wasn’t only a career high, it was the highest xwOBA amongst qualified hitters in history if you take out 2020 (Soto put up a .475 xwOBA that season in 49 games). And he did all of this while gutting it out in the 2nd half with a torn ligament in his big toe which knocked him out for almost 2 months in June and July. He isn’t expected to need surgery this off-season, which is a good sign, and he had a 1.066 OPS in September, so I’m inclined to not harp too much on the injury. 2024 Projection: 121/46/119/.283/.405/.594/9

13) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper was nice enough to leave zero doubt that his power will fully return to prime form in 2024 coming off Tommy John surgery. After hitting just 3 homers in first 58 games, he turned it around by launching 23 homers in his final 79 games, including the postseason. He returned way ahead of schedule anyway, so it’s not surprising he wasn’t fully healthy until the 2nd half. I would expect your typical elite Harper season in 2024, and he strikes me as the type of all time great that will be raking deep into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 107/35/100/.289/.400/.540/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

14) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts played 70 games at 2B in 2023 and it was announced he will be LA’s starting 2B moving forward. He immediately becomes the best 2B in baseball. He is in the midst of a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.6 – Mookie Betts’ beastly season is a reminder that not every year can be a banger. It wasn’t Ramirez’ best season with only 24 homers in 156 games, but there is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers that would be concerning in the slightest, and we know his power is fine after watching him drop Anderson on a single punch. He’s also not slowing down on the bases at all with 28 steals. Even in a down-ish year, he still finished 29th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. 2024 Projection: 94/31/101/.281/.360/.511/26

16) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 23.1 – Harris’ surface stats took a step back in his 2nd year in the bigs with a .808 OPS in 2023 vs. a .853 OPS in 2022, but his underlying numbers actually showed a player who was improving. His contact rates took a big step forward with a 18.7% K% (24.3% in 2022), his EV took a 1.4 MPH jump to 90.9 MPH, his launch increased by 3.1 degrees to 7.6, and his xwOBA increased by .020 to .355. He hit .293 with 18 homers and 20 steals in 138 games, and he was even better in his final 100 games with a .912 OPS. He still needs to improve his plate approach with a 4.6% BB%, but Harris cemented his status as a near elite dynasty asset in 2023. 2024 Projection: 91/23/82/.287/.333/.480/27

17) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.9 – I was pounding the table to buy low on Turner all season, but he came on too strong at the end of the year to get any discount on him this off-season. He slashed .339/.391/.677 with 16 homers, 9 steals and 16.9% K% in his final 47 games, and he’s currently destroying the playoffs with a 222 wRC+ in 11 games. He had a .656 OPS in his first 108 games. He also hasn’t lost even half a step with the 4th fastest sprint speed in the game. That buy low window slammed shut hard at the trade deadline. 2024 Projection: 105/25/83/.289/.340/.481/35

18) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

19) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

20) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

21) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 25.5 – If Strider’s 3.86 ERA opens up even the smallest buy window, I would be all over it. He had a 3.04 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 2.86 SIERA. His 22 homers against weren’t bad at all, so you can’t even blame a homer problem. ERA is just about the least predictive stat there is. He got unlucky. Simple as that. His 36.8%% K% led the league by a large margin, and strikeouts are king in fantasy. Glasnow was 2nd at 33.4% and Skubal was 3rd at 32.9%. His control continued to improve with an above average 7.6% BB%, and he proved he can handle a full workload with 186.2 IP. He also led the league in wins with 20, and while that was partly due to good luck, Atlanta is a perennial winner, so he should continue to be among the league leaders there. He was the #1 fantasy pitcher in 2024, and considering his age and strikeout upside, he’s in a tier of his own as the easy #1 overall pitcher in dynasty. 2024 Projection: 16/3.18/1.04/266 in 182 IP

22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 25.0 – Vlad got very unlucky in 2023. His .374 xwOBA (top 7% of the league) vs. .340 wOBA was the 8th largest differential in baseball, and this is the first year he’s ever underperformed his underlying numbers, so this isn’t a trend for him. He crushes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, he makes near elite contact with a 14.7% K%, and he raised his launch to a career high 10.5 degrees. With that type of profile, he simply can’t be held down for long. The only thing rattling around my head that gives me some pause is that the only season he really had a beastly year, 2021, was the year he played over half his home games at their spring training ballpark and Triple-A ballpark, both of which played like extreme hitter’s parks. If you take that year out of the equation, he’s really yet to display the ability to be a truly elite fantasy player, but at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), the underlying numbers don’t lie. He looks setup for a big 2024. 2024 Projection: 92/31/101/.286/.359/.507/6

23) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 27.5 – There is no fancy analysis needed for Devers. He rips the ball (93.1 MPH) with a swing geared for both power and average (12.4 degree launch). His plate approach has also slowly been improving with a career best 19.2%/9.5% K%/BB%. The guy is as safe and consistent as they come. 2024 Projection: 93/34/106/.280/.358/.513/5

24) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 27.0 – Riley is Devers’ righthanded brother from another mother. The plate approach might only be average-ish, but he rips the ball (92.3 MPH EV) with a swing geared for both power and average (13.5 degree launch). He’s averaging 36 homers with a .285 BA over his last 3 seasons. 2024 Projection: 97/36/102/.274/.347/.519/3

25) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.7 – The only question with the 34 year old Freeman is how much longer can he keep it up. I’m ranking him this high because I’m betting on him being productive deep into his 30’s, but he was the 3rd overall fantasy player this year, so this ranking does actually include an age discount. He showed zero signs of decline in 2023 with a .409 xwOBA which was in the top 2% of the league. He’s never had an xwOBA that wasn’t in at least the top 4% of the league in the Statcast era. He’s possibly the most consistently great hitter of his generation. He also took advantage of the new rules with a career high by far 23 steals. Certainly in win now mode Freeman isn’t going anywhere, but even in a rebuild I wouldn’t feel that much pressure to move him. 2024 Projection: 120/30/101/.313/.396/.528/18

26) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 30.5 – Lindor put up the quietest 30/30 (actually 31/31) season of all time. He somehow found the fountain of youth with career best power numbers and a major speed bounce back. He notched career bests in EV (91.2 MPH), Barrel% (10.4%), and launch angle (19.2 degrees). His sprint speed hit a 5 year high of 28.2 ft/sec, and he took advantage of the new rules with a career high 31 steals. He managed to do all of this with a bone spur in his elbow which required surgery this off-season, but with how many guys rake right through torn UCL’S and barely miss any time after getting Tommy John surgery, I’m not even sure you need elbows at all to hit. 2024 Projection: 100/30/96/.258/.337/.475/26

27) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 30.0 – Olson led the league in homers with 54. Schwarber’s 47 was a distant 2nd. His already double plus power leveled up to truly elite levels with a career high in Barrel% (16.4%), EV (93.7 MPH), Max EV (118.6 MPH), Hard Hit% (55.5%) and xwOBA (.394). His .283 BA was probably on the lucky side with a .263 xBA, but the days of being concerned about his hit tool are over with a 23.2%/14.% K%/BB%. 2023 strikes me as a career year, but Olson is one of the premier power hitters in baseball. 2024 Projection: 104/42/119/.267/.368/.549/1

28) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15

29) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.11 – I ranked Seager 38th overall last off-season, starting his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He blew past even my high expectations with a .327 BA and an over 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time. If you include the postseason, he hit almost exactly 35 homers in 136 games (36 homers). He’s an elite hitter with a 93.3 MPH EV, 13 degree launch, .413 xwOBA, and 16.4%/9.1% K%/BB%. Nobody will be underrating him anymore, but the only snafu is that he underwent hernia surgery in late January, which puts the start of his season in question. It doesn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but he’s about to enter his 30’s, and injuries like this can start to take their toll. 2024 Projection: 89/32/98/.291/.369/.538/2

30) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 29.5 – Alonso’s .205 BABIP was dead last among qualified hitters. He has a career .259 BABIP and he had a .279 BABIP in 2022. Point being, his .217 BA is going to bounce back in a big way in 2024, especially considering he has no contact issues with a 22.9%/9.9% K%/BB%. What you’re buying is the elite power anyway, and it was in prime form with 46 homers (3rd most in the league). If that low BA opens up even a crack of buy low value, jump on it. 2024 Projection: 94/42/120/.253/.346/.516/4

31) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 27.3 – I kept the faith on Albies after his down year in 2022, ranking him 40th overall on the Top 1,000 Rankings, and closed out his blurb by writing, “The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good.” He rewarded my faith by having a major bounce back in 2023 with a career high 33 homers and career high 124 wRC+. The only thing that didn’t bounce back was his sprint speed which sat at a mediocre 27.5 ft/sec. It resulted in only 13 steals in a year where steals exploded, and while he’s been a very successful base stealer in his career, he was never the type to truly run a ton. 2024 Projection: 98/29/93/.268/.327/.485/15

32) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 26.1 – Bichette’s speed and launch angle are both headed in the wrong direction. He’s putting up old man sprint speeds at just 25 years old with a bottom 42% of the league mark. His sprint speed was in the top 17% of the league in 2019. He missed time with knee tendinitis in August, so maybe that played a role, but his sprint speed was also way down in 2022. It resulted in only 5 steals in 135 games. That seriously cuts down his upside because he’s not a monster home run hitter either with a career worst 6.2 degree launch that resulted in 20 homers. It’s not all bad news though as Bichette still hits the ball very hard with a 90.2 MPH EV and he still makes a ton of contact with a 19.1% K%. His .361 xwOBA was actually a career high. he had a .306 BA and he’s never had a BA under .290 in his 5 year career. BA guys are not my favorite to go after for fantasy, but I’m not willing to classify Bichette as “BA guy” quite yet. Development isn’t linear, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him faster with a higher launch in 2024, and even if he doesn’t improve in those areas, he’s still an impact fantasy hitter. 2024 Projection: 89/25/94/.296/.340/.483/12

33) Royce Lewis MIN, 3B, 24.9 – Royce goes in for ACL surgeries like he’s going in for a tune-up, because he always comes right back firing on all cylinders. He showed double plus power with 19 homers in 64 games (including the playoffs) on the back of a 95.1 MPH FB/LD EV, a 114 MPH Max EV (top 10% of the league), and a 16.2 degree launch. He still has above average to plus speed with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint despite the knee injuries (6 steals), and his plate approach, which was once a bit of a concern as a prospect, was about average with a 23%/8.4% K%/BB%. It all led to a 155 wRC+ in 58 games. When he’s on the field, he’s done nothing but destroy levels since 2022. I implored you to keep buying through the knee surgeries, writing in last years Top 1,000, “I named Lewis a player to target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip.” … so hopefully you already have him on your team. If not for the added injury risk, which I think you have to at least consider, he might have ranked 15 spots higher. 2024 Projection: 77/29/88/.272/.339/.485/16

34) Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz was on pace to go 30/30 if he played a full season (19/22 in 97 games). I know “if he played a full season” is the big question mark as he’s yet to play more than 124 games in his 3 year career, but we would have been talking about him as Top 10 dynasty asset if he played in 140+ games. Ranking him at “only” 33rd overall is the injury discount, and the discount is necessary because unfortunately the injury risk is real. A turf toe injury in May kept him out for 6 weeks which required surgery after the season. He’s expected to be fully healthy going into 2024, but a pretty major surgery during the off-season where he won’t be able to run for at least 3 months isn’t optimal. He also hit the IL for a month during the season with an oblique strain. He played in only 60 games in 2022 and needed surgery on his back and knee that year. The injuries are piling up, but he’ll only be 26 on opening day, and he still has his plus power/speed combo with a 90.4 MPH EV and 28.4 ft/sec sprint. The 30.8%/6.8% K%/BB% isn’t great, but his 27% chase% is slightly above average, and he has a career .245 BA in 1,193 PA, so I’m not too worried about the hit tool tanking. Jazz is one healthy season away from being talked about with the best in the fantasy game. 2024 Projection: 74/26/79/.247/.315/.462/28

35) Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – The vibe seems to be that Jordan Walker was a bust, or at least a disappointment, but in my book, his value took a jump in 2023. He was a 20/21 year old in the majors who put up a well above average 116 wRC+ in 117 games. He hit the ball hard with an 89.4 MPH EV, he had plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint, he had an average plate approach with a 22.4%/8.0% K%/BB%, and all the hand wringing over his launch angle early in the season proved to be unfounded with a solid 10.2 degree launch. We can’t expect every prospect to immediately put up MVP numbers when we demand they get called up as 19/20/21 year olds. Being an above average MLB hitter at Walker’s age is extremely, extremely impressive, and for me, it puts him right on track to become the beast we all thought he would be last off-season. 2024 Projection: 87/26/85/.271/.340/.469/15 Prime Projection: 98/31/102/.279/.356/.513/17

36) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – Caminero was a popular breakout pick this year (me included), and he more than lived up to the consensus hype by going full phenom beast mode. He made a mockery of High-A pitching with 11 homers and a 190 wRC+ in 36 games, and then he barely slowed down at Double-A with 20 homers and a 140 wRC+ in 81 games. He even improved his plate approach at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% (25.2%/6.3% at High-A). He completed the phenom cycle by jumping straight from Double-A to the majors as a 20 year old for a cup of coffee (he ordered the cold brew with a .631 OPS in 36 PA, but it obviously doesn’t mean much). His calling card is double plus power with a good feel to hit that reminds me of a righty version of Rafael Devers. And while he didn’t run a ton (5 for 10 on the bases), he put up a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors, so he’ll certainly contribute in the category at the least. Tampa Bay is forever crowded, but a player like Caminero forces the issue. 2024 Projection: 47/17/54/.260/.323/.462/5 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.284/.349/.525/10

37) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 21.0 – Perez is going to be one of the greatest pitchers we’ve ever seen. He’s 6’8”, 220 pounds with a 97.5 MPH fastball and 3 double plus to elite secondaries. The slider notched a 47.7% whiff% and .226 xwOBA, the curve notched a 54.3% whiff% and .216 xwOBA, and the changeup notched a 46.2% whiff% and .161 xwOBA. He was 20 years old in the majors and put up a pitching line of 3.15/1.13/108/31 in 91.1 IP. The 33.7% whiff% is elite. He’s never had control problems in his career and that will probably end up plus too. The only thing that could stop him is injuries, which unfortunately has to be factored in for all young flamethrowers who have yet to throw a full MLB workload (128 IP is his career high). 2024 Projection: 12/3.36/1.09/193 in 160 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.82/0.96/240 in 180 IP

38) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 29.1 – Arozarena couldn’t maintain his blistering start to the season with a much better 1st half (.855 OPS) than 2nd half (.700 OPS), but it all evened out to a typical Arozarena season. He put up a 126 wRC+ in 2023, a 124 wRC+ in 2022, and a 127 wRC+ in 2021. He went at least 20/20 in each season. The man is consistent. He hits the ball very hard (91.7 MPH EV), he put up a career best 11.3 degree launch, he doesn’t have strikeout issues (23.9% K%), he has plus speed (28.4 ft/sec sprint), and he gets on base with a career best 12.2% BB%. That’s a near elite fantasy asset. 2024 Projection: 92/22/84/.260/.355/.442/27

39) Cody Bellinger FRA, OF/1B, 28.9 – Bellinger massively improved his contact rates with a career best 15.6% K% (27.3% in 2022) and career best 20.1% whiff% (27.2% in 2022). It led to a major bounce back season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a 15.6%/7.2% K%/BB% in 130 games. It wasn’t only the improved contact rates, he should also thank MLB for the juicier balls as his lowly 91 MPH FB/LD EV with a 17.2 degree launch likely wouldn’t have gotten the job done in 2022 with the dead balls. His 20 steals were a career high (thank you new rules) and his .319 BABIP was a career high (thank you no shift). Was Bellinger on the rules committee this off-season? He was certainly on the lucky side with a .370 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA, but as long as the ball and rules stay the same, his contact/speed/lift profile should provide very nice fantasy numbers. 2024 Projection: 84/28/91/.268/.327/.470/17

40) Adolis Garcia TEX, OF, 31.1 – Everybody was scared off by the terrible plate approach, so Garcia went ahead and made massive improvements to it. His BB% rose 4.2 percentage points to a well above average 10.3% and his chase rate dropped 8 percentage points to a nearly average 29.3%. That’s remarkable, and it’s a reminder that a player’s plate approach tends to improve as they gain experience, hence why it’s often called a “mature” plate approach. The improved patience didn’t take away any of his power with 39 homers, a 92.1 MPH EV, and a 15.7 degree launch. The only quibble with his season is that his sprint speed dropped considerably to 27.3 ft/sec, and he stole only 9 bags in 10 attempts. With the speed decline and age, it’s hard to predict a major bounce back there, but the maturing at the dish more than makes up for it as he gets deeper into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 94/35/103/.254/.330/.505/13

41) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – The only question is how much power will Carter get to, because the plate approach and speed are impregnable at this point. He’s a line drive hitter who didn’t exactly smash the ball in the minors, although a 89/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in his 75 PA MLB debut shows he’s not some light hitting weakling. He’s also 6’4”, 190 pounds and only 21 years old, so more raw power is certainly coming. He hit 12 homers in 105 games at mostly Double-A (133 wRC+), then he set the baseball world on fire by hitting 5 homers in his first 23 games in the majors (180 wRC+), and finally he closed out the year with 1 homer in 17 playoff games (155 wRC+). That’s 18 homers in 145 games. If he can just get to about 25 homers in his prime, the man is going to be a terror. The speed is double plus with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed (31 steals overall), and the plate approach is elite. He had a 9% chase% in his MLB debut and he’s been an elite plate approach guy his entire career in the minors. He struggles vs. lefties, but just like with Gunnar Henderson last year, I wouldn’t let that scare you off an elite prospect. The downside is a .260 hitter with 15 homers and 25 steals, which isn’t that bad, and the upside is a .280/25/35 guy. 2024 Projection: 87/18/72/.263/.334/.429/26 Prime Projection: 105/24/80/.278/.367/.468/31

42) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – Cruz was showing major plate approach gains, in an admittingly small sample, before a broken ankle from a home plate collision ended his season. He had a 20%/17.5% BB% K%/BB% in 9 games after putting up a 34.9%/7.8% K%/BB% in 2022. It was a very small sample, but it’s what I expected to happen as Cruz never showed that level of plate approach issues in the minors. Super tall players will always have some swing and miss in their game, but that is acceptable when the talent is huge, and Cruz most certainly has huge talent with an at least plus power/speed combo. If the injury creates any type of discount, I would be all over it. 2024 Projection: 78/27/83/.251/.333/.471/20

43) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.8 – I would completely ignore what Lawlar did in his super small sample, 34 PA MLB debut. Don’t even look at his Statcast page, it will only get in your head. Your focus should be on the pitchers he laid waste to in the upper minors. He slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 homers, 36 steals, and a 20.6%/11.4% K%/BB% in 105 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His contact rates took a big step forward from 2022 (25.1% K%), he has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he hit the ball fairly hard, especially for a 20 year old, with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with room to add more muscle, so the power is only going up from here. He has legitimate Top 10 dynasty asset potential. 2024 Projection: 69/14/55/.248/.317/.410/25 Prime Projection: 103/24/84/.273/.351/.470/38

44) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 33.7 – Cole’s strikeouts took a major step back in 2023, and that lasted throughout the entire season. His K% was down 5.4 percentage points to 27% and his whiff% was down 7.9% to 26%. The whiffs were down on all of his pitches. He still performed like a true ace with pitching line of 2.63/0.98/222/48 in 209 IP, and the stuff was still huge with a 96.7 MPH fastball, but his 3.48 xERA, 3.60 xFIP, and 3.63 SIERA all say he got lucky. With an elite stud like Cole who has a long track record, you don’t want to slice and dice the numbers too much, but he will be 33 next year, and everyone is human. Even if the strikeouts don’t bounce back, he’s as safe as an ace as there is (say that 10 times fast), but there are some indications he might be coming back to the pack a bit. 2024 Projection: 15/3.27/1.05/230 in 200 IP

45) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 87/26/83/.269/.343/.468/24

46) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.11 – Volpe might be easier to acquire this off-season than he was last off-season, which is wild, but is also par for the course in dynasty leagues. If rookies don’t immediately Corbin Carroll the league, people get discouraged and throw the bust label around. In reality, Volpe’s value should be considerably higher after the year he just had. Not only did he go 20/20 (21/24), but all of the underlying numbers are screaming a future breakout is coming with a 9% barrel%, 88.7 MPH EV, 14.2 degree launch, and 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The 27.8%/8.7% K%/BB% wasn’t great, but it’s far from the danger zone, and it’s really not bad for a 21/22 year old who had 99 total PA at Triple-A coming into the year. If cold hard numbers aren’t your thing, Volpe even has Black Magic on his side. His OPS was the number of the beast, .666. I don’t know what is going to happen to Volpe’s soul, but the Devil keeps his promises. Max Kepler was the only player to have a .666 OPS in 2022, and this season he had the highest wRC+ of his career at 124 (.816 OPS). Literally all signs, both natural and supernatural, are pointing towards a big 2024 for Volpe. He’s an easy target. 2024 Projection: 81/25/79/.245/.316/.451/31

47) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 33.11 – Altuve was in prime form yet again with a 154 wRC+, .311 BA, 17 homers and 14 steals in 90 games. A broken thumb delayed the start of his season until mid May, and an oblique injury kept him out for most of July, but he was no worse for the wear when on the field. The only crack in the armor is a career low by far 26.9 ft/sec sprint (28.1 ft/sec in 2022). It didn’t stop him from running, but it is the first sign of a true physical decline. He’s been so dominant the last 2 years I almost want to ignore his age and speed decline, but how much longer can the 5’6” Altuve maintain his elite production? 2024 Projection: 101/28/73/.285/.371/.496/19

48) Corbin Burnes BAL, RHP, 29.5 – Burnes had one of the best disappointing seasons of all time. I guess that is what happens when expectations are through the roof. He put up a pitching line of 3.39/1.07/200/66 in 193.2 IP, but it still feels like he was a bust somehow. The 25.5% K% was 5 percentage points lower than 2022 and 11.2 percentage points lower than his peak. His 8.4% BB% was 2 percentage points higher than 2022 and 3.2 percentage points higher than his peak. His velocity was down a tick or two on all of his pitches, and his most used pitch, the cutter (55.4% usage), put up a career worst by far 22.7% whiff%. It sure seems like his days of being so far out in front of the pack are over, but this current iteration of him is still damn good. The trade to Baltimore doesn’t really impact his dynasty value is any meaningful way in either direction. 2024 Projection: 15/3.21/1.03/218 in 190 IP

49) CJ Abrams WAS, SS, 23.6 – It’s almost like they made the new rules and new ball specifically for Abrams. The juicier ball helped his below average power play up (87.4 MPH EV with 18 homers), the banned shift helped lefties the most (all lefties saw their BA increase from .239 in 2022 to .249 in 2023), and the bigger bases/pickoff rules sparked him to start running a ton again (7 steals in 2022 vs. 47 steals in 2023). It wasn’t only the new rules though, he also leveled up by increasing his barrel%, EV, launch, and BB%. Even with all of those gains, he was still a below average hitter with a 90 wRC+, and while he has the type of power/speed combo to thrive in fantasy while being a bad real life hitter, that profile has a way of catching up to you. Considering he’s still only 23 years old, and proved his ability to make meaningful improvements in 2023, I’m betting on him continuing to improve and becoming the fantasy beast we all expected when he was an elite prospect. 2024 Projection: 87/17/71/.267/.321/.430/42

50) Pablo Lopez MIN, RHP, 28.1 – Lopez’ 4-seamer exploded with a 1.4 MPH velocity bump to 94.9 MPH and it immediately turned into one of the best 4-seamers in the game with a 31.5% whiff%. His sweeper, changeup, and curve are all above average to plus pitches that miss bats. His control is plus with a 6% BB% and he induces weak contact with an 87.1 MPH EV against. He definitely broke out in 2023 with a 3.66 ERA and 29.2% K% in 194 IP, but he’s been a really, really good pitcher since 2020, so it’s more of him staying healthy and leveling up. He’s a complete ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.35/1.13/220 in 185 IP

51) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1

52) Manny Machado SDP, 3B, 31.9 – I’ve been all over Machado’s every other year voodoo thing that’s happening. Here is what I wrote in his 2023 Top 1,000 blurb, “I could do an extensive analysis of the underlying numbers, but I’m afraid there are larger forces at play here. Who am I to question the universe? Machado is due for one of his good but not standout seasons in 2023” … hah! I mean, he literally had one of his good but not standout seasons with a 114 wRC+ in 138 games. I don’t even want to waste my time going through all the numbers, we all know what’s going to happen. He’s due for a beastly 2024. 2024 Projection: 86/32/98/.274/.336/.490/8

53) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 32.8 – It was another injury plagued year for Trout with only 82 games played. Nobody can be surprised by that, can they? This year it was a hamate fracture in his wrist which required surgery and effectively ended his season on July 3rd. He’s averaged 79 games over his past 3 years. It’s not only the missed games, the injuries seem to be taking a toll on his performance as it looks like he’s entering a decline phase. The power still looks great with 18 homers and a 91.9 MPH EV, but the .263 BA and 28.7% K% were both career worsts, and a continuation of a decline from 2022. His 12.4% BB% is also much lower than his prime years. He’s still very fast with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s long since stopped running, it shows he hasn’t fallen off a cliff athletically. If he can stay on the field, he should still put up big power numbers at the least, but he simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field. 2024 Projection: 88/35/86/.273/.371/.538/4

54) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 26.2 – Kirby’s 2.5% BB% didn’t only lead all qualified starters, it led all pitchers with more than 24 IP. Elite control isn’t high enough praise. He has generational control. And he uses that generational control to dominate with a fastball heavy profile led by a 96.1 MPH double plus 4-seamer. Neither of his breaking balls generate many whiffs, but his slider induces weak contact, and he’s incorporating a splitter more which killed it with a .202 xwOBA and 35.7% whiff%. He didn’t start throwing the splitter until the 2nd half, and his strikeout totals immediately ticked up. He was great in 2023 with a pitching line of 3.35/1.04/172/19 in 190.2 IP, and I think he’s going to take another step forward in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.31/1.02/183 in 185 IP

55) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – The Dodgers made Yamamoto the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

56) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 33.10 – Not only isn’t the 33 year old Wheeler slowing down, he’s reaching new levels with a career best 28.6% whiff% and 5% BB%. The stuff is in peak form too with his 95.8 MPH fastball notching a career best .260 xwOBA and 31.4% whiff%. He even added a new pitch to his arsenal, the sweeper, and it was immediately a plus pitch with a .264 xwOBA and 39.2% whiff%. Who says you can’t teach an old dog new tricks? 2024 Projection: 14/3.28/1.06/208 in 190 IP

57) Luis Castillo SEA, RHP, 31.4 – Castillo’s 96.3 MPH 4-seam fastball was the third most valuable 4-seamer in the game (Cole and Gallen ranked 1st and 2nd), and his 33% whiff% on the pitch led all qualified starters. It led to another ace level season with a pitching line of 3.34/1.10/27.3%/7% in 197 IP. He’s a consistent, safe ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.14/210 in 188 IP

58) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 28.8 – Gallen’s control has improved almost every season to the point he is nearly an elite control guy with a 5.6% BB%. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but it’s very good with 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93.6 MPH 4-seamer, curve (40.6% whiff%), and changeup (31.4% whiff%). He also mixes in a decent cutter and occasional slider. It was good for a pitching line of 3.47/1.12/220/47 in 210 IP. The stuff isn’t really on the level as some of the aces ranked above him, but he’s done nothing but produce in his career. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.10/204 in 195 IP

59) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

60) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in first year players drafts (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and it might have me considering going with the ready made ace in Yoshinobu Yamamoto over him too, but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

61) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/226/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

62) Freddy Peralta MIL, RHP, 27.10 – A shoulder injury in 2022 put some doubt into Peralta’s ace trajectory coming into 2023, but he proved that was merely a bump in the road. He put up career bests in fastball velocity (94.4 MPH), innings pitched (165.2 IP) and BB% (7.9%). He once again eclipsed a 30% K% at 30.9%. He was also at his best in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 92/11 K/BB in his final 62.2 IP. Peralta cemented his status as a young ace this year, but because his 3.86 ERA doesn’t look all that great, you might be able to buy him for non ace prices this off-season. 2024 Projection: 12/3.38/1.09/215 in 170 IP

63) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 26.2 – Rutschman has an advantage over other catchers on playing time alone. His 687 PA led all catchers by far (William Contreras was 2nd at 611). It helps his fantasy profile play up, because he’s a better real life hitter than fantasy hitter with an elite plate approach (14.7%/13.4% K%/BB%) as his most valuable skill. I don’t mean to be too disparaging with that statement, because he has the potential to be a near elite real life hitter with a .373 xwOBA (top 8% of the league). The power is only slightly above average right now with a 92.7 MPH FB/LD EV, 7.5% Barrel%, and 12.6 degree launch, but this was his first full season in the majors, so this is basically the baseline. 2024 Projection: 88/22/85/.286/.381/.458/3

64) Kevin Gausman TOR, RHP, 33.3 – Remember when people were worried about Gausman going from San Francisco to Toronto? (I named him a target that year) Remember when people questioned if he can be consistent with a splitter as his main secondary? Well, those memories are fading as Gausman has been the model of consistency. He put up a pitching line of 3.16/1.18/237/55 in 185 IP. His 31.1% K% was the 3rd best mark in the league among qualified starters. He’s one of the safest aces out there. 2024 Projection: 14/3.30/1.16/214 in 180 IP

65) Blake Snell FRA, LHP, 31.4 – In my first Mailbag Podcast Podcast back in April, I got asked about how concerned we should be with Blake Snell after his rough start to the season, and my response was that he is the type of pitcher to find his groove and rip off like 4 straight starts of double digit strikeouts, so I would hold on. Well, not only did he rip off 4 straight starts, he ripped off 23 straight starts with a 1.20 ERA and 186/72 K/BB in his final 135 IP. He had a 5.40 ERA with a 48/27 K/BB in the 45 IP before that. The problem is, just as easily as he can get red hot, he can also go ice cold with a 13.3% BB% that was a career worst and in the bottom 4% of the league. You are playing with fire with such bad control, which prevents Snell from entering the truly elite pitching tier, but with his extreme strikeout upside and career 3.20 ERA, it would be silly to drop him any further than the tier right under that. 2024 Projection: 13/3.27/1.20/218 in 170 IP

66) Tarik Skubal DET, LHP, 27.4 – Skubal went in for a flexor tendon “upgrade” in August 2022, and he came out one of the best pitchers in baseball when he returned in July. I’m not even going to call it a “surgery,” because me thinks there are more than a few pitchers out there who should elect to have it if you can expect these results. He put up a pitching line of 2.80/0.90/102/14 in 80.1 IP. His fastball jumped 1.7 MPH to 95.8 MPH and it became arguably the best 4-seamer in baseball with a league leading .225 xwOBA (250 pitch min). His changeup was elite too with a 50.6% whiff% that was 3rd best. The slider and sinker were also both above average pitches. His 32.9% K% trailed only Strider and Glasnow. And to top it all off, his control improved to elite levels with a 4.5% BB%. That is almost unheard of for control to actually improve directly coming off major arm surgery. He’ll have to prove he can keep up this level over a full season, but if he can, he’ll be in the conversation for the #1 fantasy starter next year. 2024 Projection: 13/3.36/1.05/190 in 155 IP

67) Nolan Jones COL, OF, 25.11 – You can’t leave the house these days without hearing Nolan Jones this and Nolan Jones that, but I was ringing the 5 alarm bell on Jones back in my June Targets Article, closing out the blurb by writing, “Jones has no joke near elite potential … I would go hard after him.” After that writeup he put up a 1.007 OPS with 11 homers and 14 steals in his final 57 games. He went 20/20 in just 107 games on the season. His speed was vastly underrated as a prospect with a well above average 28.4 ft/sec sprint (are scouts just making up speed grades for most prospects?), but they nailed his power grade with an at least plus 90.1/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also an OBP machine with a 12.5% BB%. The two downsides are that he’s always had high strikeout rates with a 29.7% K%, and he’s never had a high launch angle with a 9.8 degree launch. Coors Field and the low launch should help his BA from completely tanking, but he’s not going to repeat a .401 BABIP. Unfortunately, he played far too well to have much value left on the bone this off-season, but if you took my advice back in June, you already have him. 2024 Projection: 86/26/88/.255/.352/.486/23

68) Jesus Luzardo MIA, LHP, 26.7 – I was super high on Luzardo last off-season, trusting the improved control he showed in the 2nd half of 2022, and that proved wise as his 7.4% BB% was actually above average this year. He also stayed healthy, putting up a pitching line of 3.58/1.21/208/55 in 178.2 IP. The stuff is filthy with a 96.7 MPH fastball, an elite slider that put up a 51.8% whiff% (only Snell and Strider can top that), and a solid changeup that misses bats (36.1% whiff%). He officially fulfilled his ace upside status. 2024 Projection: 13/3.49/1.15/202 in 175 IP

69) Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 31.2 – Senga blew past all reasonable expectations in 2023. He put up a 2.98 ERA with a 29.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP, and he was even better in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 29.8%9.1% K%/BB% in his final 84.2 IP. He did it on the back of an insane forkball that put up a 59.8% whiff% and .184 xwOBA. It was the highest whiff% on any pitch in all of baseball thrown at least 317 times (and if you lower the threshold all the way down to 54 pitches, it was the 4th highest mark). He throws gas with a 95.6 MPH fastball and has as diverse 6 pitch mix. Control is really the only thing that can tank him, and if you take into account he was adjusting to a new league and new ball in the 1st half of the season, his 2nd half 9.1% BB% really isn’t bad at all. It’s definitely possible he takes another step forward in year 2. 2024 Projection: 13/3.37/1.17/197 in 165 IP

70) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA in his first 45.1 IP before Baltimore sent him back down, but he was different man when they called him back up, putting up a 2.58 ERA and 24%/6.9% K%BB% in his final 76.2 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 97.4 MPH fastball and three above average to plus secondaries in his changeup, slider, and curve (he mixes in a cutter too). Even in his dominant 2nd half run, he didn’t really excel in any one area. He didn’t miss a ton of bats, the control wasn’t elite, and he didn’t particularly induce a ton of weak contact. It makes me a little hesitant to say he will be a true fantasy ace next season, but with his level of stuff and minor league performance, it seems inevitable he will get there eventually. 2024 Projection: 13/3.59/1.13/181 in 170 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.01/220 in 190 IP

71) Tyler Glasnow LAD, RHP, 30.7 – Glasnow is 30 years old and he just reached a career high 120 IP this season. An oblique injury was the culprit this year which delayed the start of his year until late May. When he’s on the mound, it’s crystal clear his fantasy upside is matched by very, very few. His 33.4% K% was bested by only Spencer Strider. The stuff is huge with a 96.4 MPH fastball, and the control is above average with a 7.6% BB%. If you want to look on the bright side, it wasn’t an arm injury which got him this year, and if you want to include the minors and the AFL, he threw 144.2 IP in 2014 and 140 IP in 2016. If you want to completely ignore the injury risk, I can see going 30 spots higher on him. The Dodgers doling out a 5 year, $136 million contract extension for him also gives added confidence that a smart organization is willing to bet on him staying healthy enough over the next 5 years to earn that contract. 2024 Projection: 12/3.48/1.11/190 in 145 IP

72) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 30.2 – Fried missed 3 months of the season with a forearm strain, but he looked completely healthy when he returned with his 4th straight year of ace production. He had a pitching line of 2.55/1.13/25.7%/5.8% in 77.2 IP. He induces weak contact with a 86.5 MPH EV against (top 9% of the league), he keeps the ball on the ground with a 4.8 degree launch, he has plus control, and he misses bats with a 27.2% whiff%. 2024 Projection: 14/3.18/1.10/175 in 175 IP

73) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.7 – The K% jumped to 33.7% in 87 games at Double-A, which is exactly what you are worried about with a player this tall (6’6”), but Wood is the type of unicorn athlete where you don’t want to let it scare you off him. He still cracked 18 homers with 10 steals and a 124 wRC+ at the level as a 20 year old. And that was coming off a 155 wRC+ in 42 games at the more age appropriate High-A. Despite his size and high strikeout rate, Wood has a relatively short and quick swing which gives hope he’ll be able to keep the strikeout rate in a range that allows his truly elite talent shine. Don’t expect a high BA, but expect him to kill it everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 45/17/51/.229/.308/.450/13 Prime Projection: 91/30/99/.253/.341/.508/18

74) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 41/9/29/.241/.310/.407/19 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

75) Lane Thomas WAS, OF, 28.7 – Part of me feels like Thomas is a trap. The plate approach isn’t great (5.3% BB%), the hit tool is mediocre (25.8% K%), he was on the lucky side last year (.334 xwOBA vs. .319 wOBA), and the launch isn’t very high (10.8 degrees). But the things he does do well are the things that can result in a fantasy stud. He hits the ball fairly hard (94.6 MPH FB/LD EV), he’s fast (29.3 ft/sec sprint), and he gets the bat on the ball (23% whiff%). If you do those three things well, good things are most certainly going to happen. So while I came into this blurb intending to call Thomas a sell high, the more I really looked into it and thought about his profile, the more I realized he is a buy. I’m in. 2024 Projection: 87/25/83/.257/.318/.465/18

76) Marcus Semien TEX, 2B 33.7 – Projecting stolen bases can be a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma. Semien stole 25 bases in 2022, and with the new rules in 2023 when everyone was running wild, he stole only 14 bags. He’s as fast and healthy as he’s ever been, but his career high before 2022 was 15, so maybe it should have been expected. He made up for modest steal totals with a career best 14.6% K% and .276 BA (2nd best mark in his career). He also continues to get the most out of his average raw power with a 19.1 degree launch and 49.4% Pull% (29 homers). 2024 Projection: 103/28/86/.266/.335/.474/15

77) Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 26.11 – Gilbert is an elite control pitchers (4.7% BB%) with a big fastball (95.7 MPH) and improving secondaries. The whiff% was up 7.1 percentage points on his slider to a respectable 32.2%, 7.3 percentage points on his curveball to 30.6%, and his new splitter was at least plus when he went to it (14.8% usage) with a .185 xwOBA and 34.7% whiff%. Improving the secondaries was the last step to unleash his full potential, and while his 3.73 ERA and 24.5% K% in 190.2 IP doesn’t jump off the screen, it gives him the potential to level up even further in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.54/1.12/193 in 187 IP

78) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 30.10 – Nola likely had the worst season of his career (other than his rookie season) taking into account both surface stats and underlying numbers. His 4.46 ERA was the 3rd worst mark of his career and his 3.77 xERA was the worst of his career. A 8.3% Barrel%, 89.3 MPH EV, and 32 homers against were all career worsts, and his 25.5% K% was a 7 year low. Nothing was so bad or so out of the realm of his career norms, and he’s been alternating great years with mediocre years for his entire career, so I don’t think this is the beginning of a true decline. The Phillies obviously agree as they just signed him for 7 years at $172 million. 2024 Projection: 12/3.61/1.12/205 in 190 IP

79) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 30.4 – It was a tale of 2nd halves for Framber as he had a 2.27 ERA with a 104/21 K/BB in his first 99 IP and 4.64 ERA with a 96/36 K/BB in his final 99 IP. He also got hit up in 12 playoff innings. The velocity was up on all of his pitches with a 95.3 MPH sinker (93.9 MPH in 2022), but it seems like it actually hurt him as his once insanely elite launch angle (negative 3.6 degrees in 2022) rose all the way to a positive 4.2 degrees. He missed a few more bats with a career high 26.7% whiff%, and his control was a bit better with a 7.1% BB%, but it didn’t make up for all extra flyballs, leading to a 3.46 ERA and 4.33 xERA. He’s a very, very good pitcher no matter how you slice it, but the extreme groundball rate was his best asset, and you might not be able to fully count on that anymore. 2024 Projection: 13/3.41/1.15/192 in 195 IP

80) Riley Greene DET, OF, 23.6 – Greene underwent Tommy John surgery on his non throwing elbow in late September, but since elbows seem to be optional for hitting anyway, he’s expected to be good to go for 2024. I still think you have to give some leeway for rust, especially in the 1st half, but long term, it shouldn’t be an issue. He was in the process of his first breakout before going down with the injury with an 11.3% Barrel%, 91.6/96.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, .363 xwOBA, and 28.1 ft/sec sprint speed. It led to .288 BA with 11 homers, and 7 steals in 99 games (a broken fibula kept him out for over a month in June). I said “first” breakout, because he has more levels in him if he can raise his 6.6 degree launch and improve on his 27.4%/8.4% K%/BB%, which I would bet on him being able to do as he gains experience. There is a chance Greene ends up a better real life hitter than fantasy, but he can potentially be such a good real life hitter that he’ll still be a fantasy beast. 2024 Projection: 86/20/77/.268/.335/.448/12 Prime Projection: 97/27/89/.282/.354/.476/15

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on December 12, 2023December 15, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 120 Second Baseman: 2024 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s all about the perpetually underappreciated 2nd Baseman this week on the Patreon. Sure they weren’t good enough to play shortstop, but they are still slick fielding middle infielders. And I definitely don’t only have a chip on my shoulder about 2nd baseman being underappreciated because that was my main position growing up ;). Top 5 free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the Top 120 Second Baseman: 2024 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

1) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts played 70 games at 2B in 2023 and it was announced he will be LA’s starting 2B moving forward. He immediately becomes the best 2B in baseball. He is in the midst of a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

2) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 27.3 – I kept the faith on Albies after his down year in 2022, ranking him 40th overall on the Top 1,000 Rankings, and closed out his blurb by writing, “The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good.” He rewarded my faith by having a major bounce back in 2023 with a career high 33 homers and career high 124 wRC+. The only thing that didn’t bounce back was his sprint speed which sat at a mediocre 27.5 ft/sec. It resulted in only 13 steals in a year where steals exploded, and while he’s been a very successful base stealer in his career, he was never the type to truly run a ton. 2024 Projection: 98/29/93/.268/.327/.485/15

3) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 87/26/83/.269/.343/.468/24

4) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 33.11 – Altuve was in prime form yet again with a 154 wRC+, .311 BA, 17 homers and 14 steals in 90 games. A broken thumb delayed the start of his season until mid May, and an oblique injury kept him out for most of July, but he was no worse for the wear when on the field. The only crack in the armor is a career low by far 26.9 ft/sec sprint (28.1 ft/sec in 2022). It didn’t stop him from running, but it is the first sign of a true physical decline. He’s been so dominant the last 2 years I almost want to ignore his age and speed decline, but how much longer can the 5’6” Altuve maintain his elite production? 2024 Projection: 101/28/73/.285/.371/.496/19

5) Marcus Semien TEX, 2B 33.7 – Projecting stolen bases can be a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma. Semien stole 25 bases in 2022, and with the new rules in 2023 when everyone was running wild, he stole only 14 bags. He’s as fast and healthy as he’s ever been, but his career high before 2022 was 15, so maybe it should have been expected. He made up for modest steal totals with a career best 14.6% K% and .276 BA (2nd best mark in his career). He also continues to get the most out of his average raw power with a 19.1 degree launch and 49.4% Pull% (29 homers). 2024 Projection: 103/28/86/.266/.335/.474/15

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on September 4, 2023September 11, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 476 September 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and as usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for just about every player. Top 30 free here on the Brick Wall. August-Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 476 September 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 379 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

1) (2) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.10 – 30/60 (actually 32/63 and counting). He also just cracked the hardest hit ball of the year at 121.2 MPH. With Ohtani’s injury, he’s the clear #1 in dynasty

2) (3) (3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.0 – 1.208 OPS with 3 homers and 4 steals in his last 14 games. We can officially push the shoulder injury to the back of our minds

3) (5) (5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.8 – I saw the heater coming in last month’s update, and it is officially here, slashing .384/.424/.692 with 11 homers, 14 steals, and a 36/8 K/BB in his last 35 games. The plate approach is still below average, but at only 22 years old, I’m betting on improvement there in future years. We still haven’t seen his prime

4) (6) (12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.3 – The inevitable breakout hasn’t slowed down in the last month, slashing .322/.369/.628 with 10 homers, 10 steals, and a 15/8 K/BB in 29 games

5) (4) (4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.7 – He hasn’t performed up to prime levels with a relatively pedestrian .784 OPS, but he’s been on the unlucky side (.337 wOBA vs. .379 xwOBA) and the elite tools are still there with a 92.4 MPH EV and 29.2 ft/sec sprint. I’m buying if there is any type of discount here at all this off-season

6) (7) (8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.8 – Tucker’s about to have the quietest 30/30 season of all time

7) (8) (6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.11 – I hate to say it, but Soto could really be cementing himself as a better real life than fantasy hitter with 6 steals, a 5.8 degree launch (28 homers), and .261 BA (.272 xBA). He’s obviously still a total beast that you want to keep betting on no matter how you slice the numbers, but I think it’s at least worth mentioning

8) (16) (21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.1 – 128 games played has shattered his previous career high, and staying healthy is all he had to do to blow up with 35 homers and 17 steals. Let’s hold our breath on this little quad injury he’s dealing with now as we get deeper into the fantasy playoffs

9) (10) (19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.8 – MLB debut has gone basically exactly as expected with 11 homers, 24 steals, and a 35.8% K% in 77 games. If the K% scares you off, I get it, but I can’t get the 22 homer, 48 steal pace he’s on as a 21 year old out of my head. The best is yet to come

10) (11) (9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.2 – .955 OPS in 30 games since returning from an oblique injury. He’s elite when healthy, but he’s struggled to remain healthy in his career

11) (13) (13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.11 – 92.6 MPH EV and 38 homers are both career highs

12) (23) (18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 31.0 – We didn’t have to wait until 2024 for the power to return. It’s back now with 10 homers and 1.167 OPS in his last 25 games

13) (22) (16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.4 – Respect for Judge that he isn’t just packing it in for the season with a torn ligament in his toe, and while he hasn’t been as good since returning, he still has 12 homers with a .898 OPS in 34 games

14) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.2 – Diagnosed with a torn UCL in his right elbow and will continue to DH until he decides whether or not to get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. As we see with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but his ability to stay healthy as a starting pitcher is murkier.

Shadow14) (6) (5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.2

15) (14) (14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.0 – .619 OPS in his last 28 games. It’s not the best year he’s ever had, but everything in his underlying numbers look normal, and as we’ve seen with Mookie, not every year can be a banger

16) (27) (17) (20) (16) (14) (11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.2 – Slashing .368/.404/.783 with 11 homers, 4 steals, and a 23/6 K/BB in his last 26 games. That buy low price I was hoping for this off-season is closing by the day

17) (19) (24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.10 – 38% K% leads the league by far for every pitcher with over 70 IP. Glasnow’s 31.7% is a distant 2nd

18) (12) (10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.6 – The hot streak still hasn’t come, and when you look at his career numbers, it’s hard to deny his monster 2021 season is starting to look like a huge outlier. I still see a .383 xwOBA which is in the top 5% of the league and find it hard to drop him too far down the rankings

19) (15) (15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.10 – What’s there to say? Guy just consistently rips the ball

20) (17) (22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.8 – Sprint speed didn’t bounce back from 2022 with it sitting at a decent 27.7 ft/sec, and it’s resulted in only 11 steal attempts in a year where steals have exploded. He’s a perfect 11 for 11 to be fair, and he’s bouncing back everywhere else, but I thought it’s worth keeping in mind

21) (25) (41) (46) (74) (101) (106) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.9 – Holliday is getting promoted to Triple-A after destroying Double-A with a 153 wRC+ in 36 games. He’s now on the precipice of a callup to the bigs. He was in high school last year. Wild

22) (26) (51) (79) (73) (58) (51) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.6 – Hasn’t been called up to Triple-A yet like Holliday, but there is still an outside chance Chourio gets a callup up to the bigs in late September as well. Two 19 year old uber prospects showing out in the playoffs would be insane. I’m getting pumped just thinking about it

23) (20) (25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.0 – In win now mode, I wouldn’t argue putting Freeman as high as 8th overall despite being almost 34 years old. One of the most consistently great players of our generation

24) (24) (26) (27) (31) (38) (38) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.2 – I started Seager’s Top 1,000 blurb this off-season by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He’s blowing past even my high expectations with a .341 BA and an about 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time

25) (31) (31) (47) (30) (32) (25) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 29.10 – I said above that Tucker might have the quietest 30/30 season of all time, but Lindor is also knocking on the door of 30/30 (25/25 right now), and if he does it, he’ll actually have the quietest 30/30 season of all time

26) (18) (23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.6 – Harris has made incremental improvements almost everywhere you look (EV, launch, K%, BB%, whiff%, chase%). The monster breakout didn’t come this year, but the seeds have certainly been planted for it in the future

27) (28) (28) (30) (38) (44) (68) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 29.5 – 44 homers is tied for the league lead with Ohtani and is 3 ahead of Alonso

28) (32) (27) (15) (18) (18) (26) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.9 – 41 homers is only 3 off the league lead behind Olson and Ohtani. It’s going to be a fun race in September

29) (33) (33) (29) (27) (26) (28) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 26.5 – 21 homers in his last 64 games. He’s been raking for months now and a 40 homer season is within reach

30) (21) (11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.5 – Bichette’s sprint speed is now in the bottom 41% of the league and he’s 3 for 6 on the bases. The hope for him to contribute in steals is all but gone

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 7, 2023August 11, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and as usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for just about everyone. Top 26 are free here on the Brick Wall. July-Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 357 MID-SEASON DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.1 – Ohtani is inexplicably getting even better with career bests in EV (94.7 MPH), EV against (86.5 MPH), xwOBA (.437), and K% (23.9%) … and all that to still miss the playoffs

2) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.9 – It’s insane that Acuna just became an elite contact hitter out of nowhere. He has a 12.2% K% after his previous career best was 23.6%, and he’s doing it while hitting the ball harder than he ever has with a 95.1 MPH EV.

3) (3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.11 – The shoulder scare seems to be behind him, although he hasn’t been quite as good post break with a .753 OPS in 22 games. It hasn’t slowed him down on the bases though with 10 steals over that time period.

4) (4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.6 – .615 OPS in his last 36 games. Maybe he needed the PED’s after all, or maybe he’s just been unlucky with a .385 xwOBA vs. .341 wOBA

5) (5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.7 – We’ve been waiting for the heater all year and it might finally be here with 5 homers and a 1.032 OPS in his last 15 games. He hits the ball too hard (92.8 MPH EV) and is too fast (29.6 ft/sec sprint) for him not to get hot like this eventually

6) (12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.2 – I’ve been imploring you to buy in every monthly update, and the blow up has finally come for Witt with 8 homers and a 1.001 OPS in his last 30 games. The underlying numbers said this was inevitable

Shadow 6) (5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.1

7) (8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.7 – The quietest elite player in the game. He’s knocking on the door of a 30/30 season

8) (6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.9 – .421 OBP is 2nd to only Ronald Acuna (.425)

9) (7) (6) (9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.6 – Coming out of his slump with 4 homers and a 1.241 OPS in his last 9 games. He’s actually been on the unlucky side this season with a .354 xwOBA vs. .339 wOBA

10) (19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.7 – He’s on a full season pace for about 28 homers and 51 stolen bases, and while the hit tool risk is real, his 29.5% whiff% is actually not bad at all. Trea motherf’ing Turner is swinging and missing more than Cruz has this year (29.7% whiff%). Ranking Cruz 10th may be aggressive, but I can only be honest, and his combination of youth and upside is one I’m simply not passing up

11) (9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.1 – Returned from an oblique injury no worse for the wear with 4 homers and a 1.189 OPS in his last 10 games. If you don’t care about steals, he can rank as high as 3rd overall

12) (10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.5 – .387 xwOBA vs. .337 wOBA. He doesn’t have a history of underperforming his underlying numbers. Whatever you do, don’t sell low

13) (13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.10 – Not only hasn’t he slowed down, he’s taken it up a notch with a 1.249 OPS and 11 homers in his last 30 games. He’s on pace for the 2nd best year of his career

14) (14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.11 – Down goes Anderson … Down goes Anderson

15) (15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.9 – 7 homers with a 1.052 OPS in his last 26 games, and he also stole his first 2 bags of the season over that time period

16) (21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.0 – Robert is just about the lone bright spot in an otherwise disastrous and embarrassing year for Chicago. He’s on pace for 44 homers and 20 steals

17) (22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.7 – He debuted so young that you forget he’s just entering his man muscle years. 37 homer pace is set to shatter his previous career high of 30

18) (23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.5 – I keep seeing Harris included in trades where he isn’t getting nearly his due respect. He’s slashing .369/.417/.585 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 11/6 K/BB in his last 20 games. He crushes the ball, he’s fast, he has plus contact rates, and he’s still only 22 years old

19) (24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.9 – The undisputed top dog with a 39.3% K% and 97.3 MPH heat. Gausman’s 32.8% K% is a distant 2nd among qualified starters

20) (25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.11 – In win now mode, I wouldn’t argue putting Freeman 3rd overall despite being almost 34 years old. One of the most consistently great players of our generation

21) (11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.4 – Dodged a bullet with his knee injury not considered serious. What is serious though is that he all of a sudden became slow with a below average 27 ft/sec sprint, leading to only 3 steals in a year where everyone else is running

22) (16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.3 – Returned early from a torn ligament in his big toe even though he isn’t 100% yet and is understandably struggling with a .685 OPS in his last 9 games. Maybe they should shut it down and let him heal up for the next 8 years of his mega contract

23) (18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.11 – The guy has an elite .378 xwOBA in a year where he clearly is well below 100% returning early from Tommy John surgery. There is little doubt the homer power will fully return in 2024

24) (26) (27) (31) (38) (38) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.2 – The career year continues with 8 homers in his last 15 games. His .441 xwOBA is behind only Judge and Acuna. I started Seager’s Top 1,000 blurb this off-season by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He’s blowing past even my high expectations

25) (41) (46) (74) (101) (106) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.8 – Destroying Double-A, slashing .396/.448/.642 with 3 homers, 0 steals, and a 13.8%/8.6% K%/BB% in 13 games. He has plenty of competition for this top spot with Chourio right on his heels, but he’s not giving an inch

26) (51) (79) (73) (58) (51) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.5 – This man does not like his balls tacked as he’s back to going nuclear with the regular ball, slashing .424/.480/.717 with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 12/9 K/BB in his last 21 games

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 3, 2023July 7, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 473 July 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Here at Imaginary Brick Wall we’re celebrating the 4th of July with Dynasty Baseball Rankings! Would you expect anything else? As usual, I will go over 400 deep with blurbs for just about every player. June, May, April, and Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. The Top 473 just hit the Patreon today (Top 25 free here on IBW). Here are the Top 473 July 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.0 – Acuna was starting to just enter Ohtani’s rearview mirror for the #1 overall dynasty player, so Ohtani went out and hit another gear, slashing .378/.472/.966 with 19 homers in his last 31 games at the plate, and striking out 22 batters in his last two starts on the mound. The undisputed king

2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.8 – Acuna simply can’t match Ohtani’s upside. He doesn’t pitch. He slashed .365/.439/.720 with 10 homers and 19 steals in his last 26 games and managed to lose ground

3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.10 – Backed up my aggressive #3 ranking of him in June by slashing .304/.360/.674 with 8 homers and 8 steals in his last 24 games. But now he’s experiencing shoulder soreness in his surgically repaired shoulder, which really can’t be sugarcoated. Thankfully it doesn’t seem that serious, but I can’t lie, it’s a bit scary

4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.5 – Either he was being honest about his PED use, or he never needed them anyway, or he’s still cheating, because post PED suspension Tatis doesn’t look all that different from pre PED suspension Tatis with 16 homers and 14 steals in 64 games. Plus, his hit tool is better than ever with a career best 19.2% K%

5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.6 – Hasn’t taken a step forward in year 2 and hasn’t really had a true hot streak yet this year, but nothing in the underlying numbers says there should be any level of concern. The guy has a 92.6 MPH EV and 29.6 ft/sec sprint which has led the way to a 25 homer and 37 steal pace on the season

Shadow5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.0 – 31 homers leads all of baseball

6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.8 – The early season slump is a long forgotten memory with a 1.048 OPS in his last 23 games

7) (6) (9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.5 – Slumping since the last update, slashing .216/.260/.352 with 2 homers and 5 steals in his last 22 games, but he still had a 12/6 K/BB over that time, so the slump isn’t going to last long

8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.6 – As expected, the homer power has ticked up since the last update with 5 homers in his last 25 games. He’s slashing .285/.361/.466 with 12 homers and 14 steals in 82 games and it doesn’t even feel like he’s having that good of a season

9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.0 – Hasn’t played since June 8th with an oblique injury that is expected to keep him out until mid July

10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.4 – The guy has a 94.4 MPH EV with a 15.4% K% and .398 xwOBA (top 4% of the league). He’s not going to be held down for long. I’m buying

11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.3 – He’s improving his strength, taking the hit tool to the next level with a .317 BA and .323 xBA, but he hasn’t improved his weaknesses (BB% and launch), and he’s also not running (3 steals)

12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.1 – .811 OPS in his last 20 games. .305 wOBA vs. .355 xwOBA. I was buying last month and I’ll continue to buy this month

13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.9 – 92.4 MPH EV is a career high. .400 xwOBA is in the top 3% of the league. That gradual decline he was on has been completely reversed

14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.10 – 1.157 OPS with 7 homers and 4 steals in his last 22 games. He’s still elite

15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.8 – .943 OPS in 25 games since the last update. I warned against selling too low on him

16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.2 – Suffered a torn ligament in his big toe and his return date is uncertain as of now. He’s resumed some light baseball activities of late, but it seems like an August return would be a best case scenario

17) (20) (16) (14) (11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.0 – Hitting .292 with 3 homers and 10 steals in his last 24 games. It’s not his best season, but nothing it too concerning in his underlying numbers, and the upside is too high to sell at any type of discount

18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.10 – .669 OPS with 0 homers in his last 31 games. I think we have to grade Harper’s season on a curve considering how fast he came back from Tommy John surgery. It might not be until 2024 until he’s truly fully healthy

19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.6 – 31.1% K% with a 30.3% whiff% is actually encouraging to me because there was potential for it to truly balloon in the majors. 30.8 ft/sec sprint speed leads the league by a good margin and his 116.6 Max EV is in the top 2% of the league. He’s living up to the hype

20) (22) (22) (25) (39) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 28.4 – His last month wasn’t particularly notable with a .848 OPS, 5 homers, and 2 steals in 25 games, but it just continues to lock in his status as a near elite dynasty asset

21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 25.11 – 1.132 OPS with 11 homers and 6 steals in his last 26 games

22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.6 – .975 OPS with 9 homers and 5 steals in his last 25 games

23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.4 – Slashing .407/.416/.674 with 5 homers and 5 steals in his last 23 games. He’s back

24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.8 – The rough patch proved to be just that with a 1.83 ERA and 28/3 K/BB in his last 19.2 IP. Undisputed top dynasty pitcher in the game

25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.10 – The man is on pace for 20 stolen bases now too. Just not fair. He’s almost 34 years old, but even this ranking might be too low with zero signs of decline

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on February 3, 2023February 9, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 1,000 Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues

I gave you a day to catch your breath with the Top 500 2023 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings dropping on Wednesday. Now it’s time to unveil the Top 1,000 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on the Patreon. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in mid to late March. Here is the Top 1,000 Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-All-In-One Rankings Spreadsheet
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 305 SP//Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C//Top 64 RP
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.9 – Ohtani came into 2022 as my #1 overall dynasty player, and he not only hung onto the top spot, but he somehow managed to pull even further away from the pack. He became arguably the best pitcher in baseball with a 2.33 ERA and 33.2%/6.7% K%/BB% in 166 IP. He also continued to be among the best hitters in baseball with a .385 xwOBA which was 6th best overall. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Ohtani is the greatest player to ever play the game. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.3 – Prospects can break your heart, but the season Julio just had is why we play the game. There is nothing more satisfying in all of fantasy sports than acquiring a young prospect, letting him develop in your farm system, and then watching him explode in his MLB debut. And explode is exactly what he did, slashing .284/.345/.509 with 28 homers, 25 steals, and a 25.9%/7.1% K%/BB% in 132 games. He has elite speed (29.8 ft/sec sprint speed) and elite exit velocity numbers (92/96.2 MPH AVG/FB EV). He closed out the season with a bang, putting up a 1.202 OPS in his final 19 games, which could be foreshadowing for what he has in store for 2023. The only quibble is that he ran far less in the 2nd half with only 4 steals in 7 attempts in his final 50 games, but considering how fast he is, I wouldn’t get too hung up on that. 2023 Projection: 96/32/98/.278/.353/.522/26

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.3 – Acuna underwent knee surgery for a torn ACL in late July 2021, and he was understandably not 100% in 2022. It’s seriously impressive that he was able to make his debut in late April, but that is where the impressing ended. He put up a career worst .764 OPS with only 15 homers in 119 games. His launch angle tanked 7.4 degrees to 10.8 degrees and his sprint speed dropped 0.9 ft/sec to 28.5 ft/sec. It was far from a complete disaster though. His .366 xwOBA was in the top 5% of the league, his 24.9% whiff% was a career best, and he still ran a ton with 29 steals. With a normal off-season and more time away from that surgery, I would be shocked if Acuna doesn’t bounce back to elite levels. 2023 Projection: 106/32/91/.279/.362/.511/33

4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.9 – Alvarez’s .462 xwOBA was bested only by Aaron Judge by .001. His 95.2 MPH EV was only topped by Aaron Judge. He was the 2nd best hitter in baseball this year, behind you guessed it, Aaron Judge. I think you get the point. He’s a 6’5”, 225 pound beast who hits the ball with superhuman strength, and he also has an elite plate approach with a 18.9%/13.9% K%/BB%. The surgically repaired knees might become an issue down the line, but they clearly aren’t going to slow him down anytime soon. 2023 Projection: 102/40/111/.302/.400/.578/1

5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.5 – Soto’s numbers fell off hard in San Diego with a .778 OPS and only 6 homers in 52 games. They have one of the worst hitter’s ballparks in baseball, so it would be easy to feel a little trepidation, but betting against Soto seems foolish. His underlying numbers were still elite in San Diego with a 92.1 MPH EV and 14.9%/19.3% K%/BB% in 228 PA. He was very unlucky all year with a .249 BABIP (career .309 BABIP). His .401 xwOBA was the 4th best mark in baseball. The dude is still silly elite. 2023 Projection: 107/31/98/.283/.420/.521/10

6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.3 – Tucker got considerably slower this year with his sprint speed dropping off a cliff to a well below average 26.4 ft/sec, but he still thrived on the bases with a career high 25 steals in 29 attempts. It’s a reminder that there is a lot more to base stealing than just being fast. He combines his base stealing skills with a near elite plate approach (15.6%/9.7% K%/BB%), above average exit velocity (90 MPH), and a launch made for dingers (19 degree launch with 30 homers). People have been slow to buy into Tucker’s elite status, but 2022 should cement it. 2023 Projection: 82/32/97/.271/.340/.507/21

Shadow6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 28.9 – This is where I would take Ohtani as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

7) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 22.10 – Bobby Witt was the fastest man in the majors with a 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed (actually tied for first with Jose Siri and Bubba Thompson), at least until someone by the name of Corbin Carroll showed up and put up a 30.7 mark. It led to 30 stolen bases in 37 attempts, and with the new stolen base rules, I’m hesitant to even put a ceiling on what he’s capable of in 2023. There were some swing and miss concerns prior to his debut, but he proved that won’t be an issue with an above average 21.4% K%. His power was good but not great with 20 homers in 150 games, and there is a little Cody Bellinger risk here, in that he hits the ball in the air a lot with a relatively low FB/LD EV (92.6 MPH). Witt’s 16.8 degree launch angle isn’t as extreme as Bellinger’s 20.3 degree launch, his 113.7 Max EV (top 8% of the league) was much higher than Bellinger’s 107.3 MPH Max, and I’m only expecting continued improvements from the still 22 year old Witt. He has scary high upside, and we just saw the floor. 2023 Projection: 87/26/90/.267/.331/.472/36

8) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.3 – Tatis seems to have a karmic black cloud hanging over his head. He had an injured shoulder that kept popping out which he refused to get surgery for, then he fractured his wrist in a motorcycle accident, and then he got popped for a PED suspension which will keep him out 20 games into 2023. They do say bad news comes in 3’s. It does seem like he is trying to make amends now though. He agreed to get shoulder surgery and also underwent wrist surgery. The thing that worries me a little bit is that the doctors were concerned the first wrist surgery wouldn’t hold, so he had to have a 2nd one where they inserted a screw. He’s collecting enough red flags to open a Six Flags Great Adventure amusement park. Despite it all, I still find it hard to believe his best days are behind him. He’s a 24 year old elite athlete with baseball bloodlines. It would be too risk averse to sell low or write him off when the upside is something like 9 more years of elite production. I would take any discount on Tatis that I could get. 2023 Projection: 86/28/84/.273/.355/.558/19

9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.1 – Vlad gave up almost all of the gains he made in 2021. His EV dropped 2.3 MPH to 92.8 MPH, his launch angle dropped 5.1 degrees to 4.3 degrees, and his xwOBA dropped .069 points to .348. He’s still a beast who played in 160 games and jacked 32 homers with a 16.4% K%. He also stole a career high 8 bags. This is basically his floor, and we saw the type of year he could put up when everything comes together. 2023 Projection: 96/34/104/.282/.349/.510/5

10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. He wasn’t worth a dollar more than $359,999,999 😉 2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 29.9 – It wasn’t Turner’s best statistical season with a 6 year low .809 OPS, a career low 27 steals, and a career worst 26.3% whiff%, but nothing was that far off from career norms. There are also zero signs that he’s slowing down with a super elite 30.3 ft/sec sprint speed, so who knows what he’ll be capable of with the new stolen base rules. There is a chance we see some truly special stolen base seasons in 2023, and Turner is in prime position to lead that charge. His move to Philadelphia doesn’t change his value at all for me. 2023 Projection: 103/23/87/.293/.344/.486/36

12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.6 – Ramirez jammed his thumb at the end of June, which would eventually require off-season surgery, and he wasn’t the same player after that. He had a 1.039 OPS before the injury and a .766 OPS after the injury. He had his usual great year regardless with 29 homers, 20 steals, and a 139 wRC+, but his underlying numbers fell off hard with a below average 87.7 MPH EV and a barely above average .320 xwOBA. Because it is very clear what caused the drop off, and because he should have plenty of time to fully recover this off-season, I wouldn’t drop him at all in rankings. Although this is how a decline can start, with injuries piling up and maybe not healing as well, or as fast as they did when you were in your 20’s. 2023 Projection: 93/30/100/.274/.353/.519/22

13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.1 – Bichette was on his way to a disappointing season before going Mach 5 in his final 42 games, slashing .386/.436/.608 with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 29/13 K/BB. He had a .716 OPS in the 117 games before that. The plate approach isn’t great (22.2%/5.9% K%/BB%), the launch angle could be better (8.5 degrees), and he’s not that fast (27.5 ft/sec sprint speed), but what he does best is smoking the ball with a 91.9/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, and that is almost the most important thing. I’ll keep betting on a 25 year old who crushes the ball with a good feel to hit and some speed. 2023 Projection: 97/27/97/.293/.340/.502/17

14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.5 – Devers is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He demolishes the ball with an elite 93.1 MPH EV, and his 11.3 degree launch angle is geared for both power and average. He also maintained the improved plate approach from 2021 with an 18.6%/8.1% K%/BB%. He’s that perfect combo of being young and established, plus he strikes me as the type who will be able to hit from a wheelchair, meaning I would bet on him producing well into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 89/29/105/.284/.348/.517/4

15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.1 – Harris got a surprise call-up straight from Double-A and he hit the ground running in the majors, slashing .297/.339/.515 with 19 homers, 20 steals, and a 24.3%/4.8% K%/BB% in 114 games. He has an elite 29.4 ft/sec sprint speed and he hits the ball damn hard with a 89.5/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV. Both is GB% (56.2% vs. 45.9%) and BB% (4.8% vs. 8.7%) were much better at Double-A than in the majors, so I think it is fair to expect improvements in that area as he refines his game. It’s bonkos he was even able to do what he did as a 21 year old with 196 total AB’s in the upper minors, all at Double-A. He’s an elite dynasty asset. 2023 Projection: 93/22/79/.279/.336/.472/28

16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.1 – A quad injury knocked Franco out for almost all of June and then a wrist injury which required surgery knocked him out for 2 months from early July to early September. The injuries contributed to his mediocre season with his EV tanking to 85.1 MPH after returning from the wrist injury, but it wasn’t the only reason, as he had only 5 homers in 58 games before going down with that injury. He’s simply not geared to be a power hitter at this point in his career, but he’s still so young it would be silly to cap his power upside at this point. He makes so much contact with a 9.6% K% (top 1% of the league) that he doesn’t need to have an extreme launch angle to knock a healthy amount of dingers out, and an 8.2 degree launch is far from hopeless. He also stole 8 bags in 83 games, giving hope he will be more of a mid teens guy than a 10 or under guy. It wasn’t the breakout we were hoping for, but we can’t pine for prospects to get called up in their early 20’s before their prime, and then bemoan the fact they aren’t putting up prime numbers immediately. I’m staying patient and holding strong on his ranking. 2023 Projection: 92/18/76/.292/.348/.447/16 Prime Projection: 106/24/85/.314/.378/.492/15

17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 56/18/54/.281/.380/.525/6

19) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 28.5 – Burnes took a step back in 2022 from super elite, to merely elite with a 2.94 ERA and 30.5%/6.4% K%/BB%. He did so while notching a career high by far 202 IP. He has a perfect mix of safety, upside, track record, and youth that no other pitcher can quite match, making him my #1 overall Dynasty pitcher. 2023 Projection: 14/2.86/.0.95/240 in 195 IP

20) Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 25.11 – McClanahan not only backed up his 2021 breakout, he went supernova, ascending to true ace status. He put up a 2.54 ERA with a 30.3%/5.8% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP. The one snag is that a shoulder injury knocked him out for a few weeks in September, and he wasn’t quite the same when he returned with a 5.21 ERA and 12/8 K/BB in his final 19 IP. I’m not really concerned because he was throwing even harder with a 97.2 MPH fastball and he faced a very tough schedule (Toronto twice and Houston twice). He might have been my top pitcher without the injury, but he’ll have to settle for #2. 2023 Projection: 13/3.05/0.99/224 in 185 IP

21) Manny Machado SDP, 3B, 30.9 – Here’s how I closed out the Machado blurb in my 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings, “He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022” … well, the trend held and Machado had a hell of a season with a career high 152 wRC+. I could do an extensive analysis of the underlying numbers, but I’m afraid there are large forces at play here. Who am I to question the universe? Machado is due for one of his good but not standout seasons in 2023 (and his underlying numbers agree with a career low .338 xwOBA and 20.7% K%, which is good but not standout). 2023 Projection: 90/33/95/.281/.350/.508/8

22) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

23) Jacob deGrom TEX, RHP, 34.10 – deGrom is 34 years old, but he is in that tier of elite athlete that could continue to play at a high level into their 40’s. Just look at Tom Brady. He’s 45 and he has 300 pound, sub 5.0 forty guys trying to take his head off. deGrom is in that super elite class, and he doesn’t have to deal with standing strong in the pocket with an unprotected blitz descending upon him. He just put up an absolutely silly 42.7%/3.3% K%/BB% with a 0.75 WHIP in 64.1 IP. Both his 2021 and 2022 have been injury shortened seasons with a UCL and shoulder injury, but I think those numbers speak to themselves as to how the arm was feeling. He could easily have another 5 elite years in the tank, and why not 10. It’s not like young pitching is really any safer, as young pitchers are arguably more risky than older guys. Use deGrom’s advanced age and injury shortened seasons to your advantage. 2023 Projection: 14/2.51/0.95/220 in 170 IP

24) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 29.5 – Lindor was one of my top buys in 2022, ranking him 23rd overall in my 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings and closing his blurb by writing, “Lindor is an easy buy this off-season.” As expected, that is exactly how it played out with Lindor bouncing back to finish as the 10th best fantasy player in baseball (Razzball Player Rater). He simply did what he’s done his entire career, which is more or less be an above average player in every facet of the game. He should have a few more years of prime production left before his stolen bases dry up the deeper he gets into his 30’s as he is slowing down a little bit. 2023 Projection: 94/25/89/.263/.330/.453/17

25) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.4 – Alonso maintained 100% of the hit tool gains he made in 2021 with a career best 18.7% K% and .271 BA in 2022. Putting up those kind of contact numbers is scary with the kind of power he has, and it led to 40 homers. He is a perennial contender for the home run crown. 2023 Projection: 88/38/110/.268/.356/.520/4

26) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 31.8 – Panic hit the baseball world when it was announced Trout had a “rare” back injury that would require maintenance for the rest of his career, but then he returned from that injury and drilled 16 homers with a 1.056 OPS in his final 40 games. Granted, it came with a 24.3%/8.7% K%/BB%. His swing and miss was at career worst levels even before the injury with a 27.9% K% and 30.2 whiff% on the season. It’s becoming a trend as his K% was up a lot in 2021 as well. I believe we are seeing a glimpse into what the decline phase will look like. His power will thrive, but the batting average and OBP may be coming down. We already know the stolen bases have dried up completely, and that the injury risk is high too. 2023 Projection: 91/42/90/.280/.377/.605/3

27) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 25.8 – Robert battled through a variety of injuries which conspired to tank his season. He battled Covid in late May, picked up a leg injury shortly after that, then battled lightheadedness and blurred vision in July, before a wrist injury in mid August essentially ended his season even though he tried to play through it. He still managed to have a solid season through it all, slashing .284/.319/.426 with 12 homers, 11 steals, and a 77/17 K/BB in 98 games. He took a step back in many areas (Barrel%, EV, launch, sprint speed), but the one area he didn’t take a step back in was hit tool with him putting up a career best 19.2% K%. I feel confident a fully healthy Robert will get back to doing damage as long as he gets the bat on the ball, and the fact he put up career best marks there is very encouraging to me. 2023 Projection: 88/24/91/.277/.328/.460/19

28) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 26.0 – Riley locked in his status as one of the premier power hitters in baseball in 2022. His 92.5 MPH EV was in the top 4% of the league and it led to 38 homers in 159 games. A 12.9 degree launch should keep his BA high, and he continues to make plate approach gains with a career best 8.2% BB% and 27.6% whiff%. I sense he still doesn’t get quite the respect he deserves, and even this ranking might be too low. 2023 Projection: 87/34/99/.270/.346/.524/1

29) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 32.7 – Cole’s spin rates were just fine, which I figured would be the case with all the spin rate panic last off-season, writing in last year’s Top 1,000, “I’m betting on the spider tack guys getting their mojo back in 2022.” He did put up his worst ERA (3.50), xERA (3.31), K% (32.4%), and xwOBA (.284) since his 2018 breakout, but all of them were just barely 5 year lows. Maybe it is a sign that he is entering the beginning of his decline phase, but all of his pitches were as nasty as ever, so I’m leaning towards it just being normal variance. He’s one of the safest, if not the safest ace in baseball. 2023 Projection: 15/3.26/1.02/250 in 195 IP

30) Sandy Alcantara MIA, RHP, 27.7 – Alcantara’s 228.2 IP led all of baseball, which makes up for his relative lack of strikeouts with a not that far above average 23.4% K%. His game is weak contact with an above average 87.8 MPH EV against, groundballs with a 5.5 degree launch angle, and plus control with a 6.6% BB%. With the new shift rules, Alcantara is the type of pitcher who might take a hit from it, but I don’t think you should overthink it. He’s too good to downgrade him for it. 2023 Projection: 14/3.11/1.04/209 in 215 IP

31) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 29.10 – Nola put up a career best 5.2% BB% in 2021, and he took it to another level in 2022 with a crazy elite 3.6%, which was the 2nd best mark among qualified pitchers behind Corey Kluber (3%). The improved control didn’t impact his ability to miss bats (29.1% K%) or induce weak contact (87.7 MPH EV) at all. It led to a 3.25 ERA with a 235/29 K/BB in 205 IP. His 4.63 ERA from 2021 made him an easy buy call and he unsurprisingly bounced right back. 2023 Projection: 14/3.38/0.99/227 in 195 IP

32) Jazz Chisholm MIA, 2B, 25.2 – Chisholm’s season ended in late June with a stress fracture in his back that ended up requiring surgery. To add insult to injury, actually, to add injury to injury, he also underwent surgery in September to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee that he was playing through for most of the season. The fact he was going full breakout with a torn knee is almost more impressive than I am scared off by the knee surgery. He had 14 homers, 12 steals and a reasonable .254 BA in 60 games with strong underlying numbers to back it up (.345 xwOBA, 90.4 MPH EV, 29.2 ft/sec sprint). The back injury sounds scary, but Evan Carter had a stress fracture in his back that ended his season in 2021, and he had a great year in 2022. I can’t deny the double injury is a little concerning, and he certainly would have ranked higher without the injuries, but it’s not enough to scare me off. I would use it as a buying opportunity. 2023 Projection: 79/27/87/.248/.322/.487/18

33) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

34) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 30.2 – Woodruff was diagnosed with Raynaud’s Syndrome in June, but the diagnoses sounded scarier than the reality as he returned no worse for the wear. His 31.1% whiff% was actually a career best on the back of his changeup taking a step forward with a 54% whiff%. He had his usual elite season with a 3.05 ERA and 30.6%/6.8% K%/BB% in 153.1 IP. 2023 Projection: 14/3.18/1.04/210 in 175 IP

35) Dylan Cease CHW, RHP, 27.3 – Cease has everything but control. He has filthy stuff (96.8 MPH fastball), big K rates (30.4% K%), and induces weak contact (86.8 EV against). The 10.4% BB% adds more risk than the aces ranked above him, and it results in his WHIP being relatively on the high side (1.11). He still put up a 2.20 ERA (2.70 xERA) with the high walk rate, but we’ve seen guys who struggle with control have very inconsistent careers. I’m not scared off by it, but it’s certainly something to keep in mind. 2023 Projection: 14/3.29/1.15/228 in 185 IP

36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.5 – Strider’s 38.3% K% was only bested amongst starters by deGrom’s stupid 42.7% K%. It also leads all starters in the history of baseball on the career leaderboard. Clearly it’s a small sample size (131.2 IP), and there is no decline phase which every other retired pitcher has factored in, but it shows the type of insane upside Strider has. He’s mostly a 2 pitch pitcher with a 98.2 MPH fastball and an elite slider that put up a 52.5% whiff%, but the changeup was elite too when he went to it with a .154 xwOBA and 47.5% whiff% (4.8% usage). He doesn’t have control issues either with an about average 8.5% BB%. I named him one of my top mid-season trade targets in late June, essentially calling him the 2022 version of Shane McClanahan, and his value has only skyrocketed since then. 2023 Projection: 13/3.15/1.09/242 in 170 IP

37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.7 – Freeman is an all fields hitter whose homer power was most certainly impacted by the dead ball, hitting an 8 year low (on a per game basis) 21 homers, but not being reliant on homers helped him overcome the ball in general with an elite .403 xwOBA (3rd best overall). He might be the most consistent elite hitter in the game. He also stole a career high 13 bags and has yet to show signs of losing speed. He certainly has the potential to produce deep into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 112/28/97/.306/.398/.515/11

38) Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 25.3 – Manoah proved his 4-seamer dominating MLB hitters was no fluke in his 2021 rookie year, backing it up in 2022 with the pitch putting up a negative 19 run value (6th best overall). All 4 of his pitches were firmly above average to plus, and he fired them with plus control (6.5% BB%). He also proved he is a workhorse with 196.2 IP. The swing and miss rates were only average (22.9% K%), and his xERA was much better than his ERA (3.31 xERA vs. 2.24 ERA), but that feels like nitpicking considering he finished the season as the 4th best fantasy pitcher. 2023 Projection: 15/3.15/1.03/188 in 190 IP

39) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 28.11 – Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world. The guy is an elite hitter with a .372 xwOBA which was in the top 4% of the league. He has double plus contact rates with a 15.5% K%, he crushes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV, and his 13.6 degree launch angle is conducive to both power and average. He jacked a career high 33 homers this year and while it came with a .245 BA, a lot of that was bad luck with a career low by far .242 BABIP. While I don’t think the new shift rules will have a major impact in general, Seager could be the type of hitter it helps out a little bit. If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all. 2023 Projection: 90/30/90/.280/.350/.505/2

40) Carlos Rodon NYY, LHP, 30.4 – All of the injury concern this off-season proved to be for naught as Rodon notched a career high 178 IP, and he only got stronger as the season progressed. He ended up with a pitching line of 2.88/1.03/237/52. His fastball averaged a career high 95.5 MPH and he decided to almost completely ditch his changeup which got destroyed in 2021. Throwing your good pitches more and your bad pitches less is sometimes presented as like some kind of genius revolutionary idea, but it is the most common sense thing in the world. Rodon is straight elite when healthy, and I’m not sure it’s fair to give him all that much of an injury downgrade at this point. Even this ranking could be too cautious. 2023 Projection: 13/3.02/1.05/215 in 170 IP

41) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 28.1 – Arozarena continues to defy the Statcast gods, handily outperforming his underlying numbers for the 4th year in a row. He put up a .336 wOBA vs. .301 xwOBA. Being very fast (28.8 ft/sec sprint) and hitting the ball hard (89.9 MPH EV) on a line (8.8 degree launch angle) seems to be the formula to get “lucky.” Luck is the residue of design. He made real contact gains with a career best 28.6% whiff%. It all led to 20 homers, 32 steals, and a .263 BA. Arozarena also seems perfectly positioned to take advantage of the new pick off rules as a young, fast, liberal base stealer. The poor underlying numbers gives me a enough pause to not rank him higher than this, but I also think this ranking shows I’m a believer. 2023 Projection: 80/18/80/.258/.330/.440/30

42) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 28.6 – Mullins had one of the best “disappointing” seasons ever with 16 homers and 34 steals, finishing 27th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. He couldn’t come close to matching his 2021 power breakout, and while the dead ball certainly played a big role, it was very obviously a career year that he is unlikely to repeat. Like Arozarena, Mullins has outperformed his underlying statcast numbers his entire career (.328 career wOBA vs. .303 xwOBA), so I wouldn’t panic too much over the very poor .288 xwOBA in 2022, but speed is most certainly the skill you are buying here. 2023 Projection: 87/20/70/.266/.328/.437/36

43) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 27.10 – Bieber’s fastball tanked to 91.3 MPH from a high of 94.1 MPH in 2020, which validated the concerns over his strained shoulder coming into the year, but it turned out he doesn’t need the huge fastball to be elite. He put up a pitching line of 2.88/1.04/198/36 in 200 IP. Bieber’s velocity ticked up relatively later in his career, so he already knew how to pitch with a low 90’s fastball, and that was obvious with him compensating by becoming an even more elite control guy with a 4.6% BB%. The underlying numbers didn’t look as good with a 3.51 xERA, but many, many pitchers this year outdid their xERA, so the dead ball probably messed with the numbers a little bit. I’m expecting the balls to be less dead next year, but your guess is as good as mine. The new shift rules will regress some of that BABIP luck as well. 2023 Projection: 14/3.28/1.10/205 in 190 IP

44) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 27.8 – An injury marred 2021 had Gallen’s price depressed last off-season, and he rewarded his believers with the best season of his career in 2022, putting up a pitching line of 2.54/0.91/192/47 in 184 IP. He did it on the back of improved control with his BB% dropping 2.8 percentage points to a career best 6.6%, and also increased velocity with is 4-seamer up 0.7 MPH to a career best 94.1 MPH. The only quibble is that his swing and miss is on the decline with a below average, career worst 23% whiff%, but in the context of all the other improvements he made, I wouldn’t be too concerned. Plus his K% was still above average at 26.9%. I would hesitate to put Gallen into that true ace tier, but he’s in the tier right below that one. 2023 Projection: 14/3.21/1.08/195 in 185 IP

45) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.3 – Albies season effectively ended in mid June from a broken foot. He returned in mid September only to break his pinky his 2nd game back. Sometimes you just can’t catch a break. Or maybe it was a blessing in disguise as he was in the midst of a pretty bad year with a poor 87.1 MPH EV, .297 xwOBA, and 27.5 ft/sec sprint speed. He had only 8 homers, 3 steals, and a .703 OPS in 64 games. The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good. 2023 Projection: 88/25/86/.263/.318/.466/14

46) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 26.8 – I feel like I’ve been the high guy on Urias since 2019, and continually pushing him up my ranks paid off yet again (37th overall in 2022) with him putting up a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/166/41 in 175 IP. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but he’s a weak contact machine with a 86.7 MPH EV against. He’s never had a mark over 87.1 MPH in his 7 year career. He combines that with near elite control with a 6% BB%, and he should continue to rack up wins on the Dodgers. 2023 Projection: 15/3.17/1.00/174 in 178 IP

Shadow46) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP, 28.9 – This is where I would take Ohtani as a pitcher only. I didn’t think Ohtani would ever throw 166 innings in a single season, and with how much pitchers get restricted these days, that is almost a full workload. 2023 Projection: 13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

47) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 26.4 – Jimenez went down with a hamstring injury just 11 games into the season, but he returned a man on fire, not only reestablishing himself as one of the premier young power hitters in the game, but also taking his game to the next level. He notched career bests in EV (92.8 MPH), xwOBA (.365), K% (22%), and BB% (8.6%). It led to a slash of .295/..358/.500 with 16 homers in 84 games. His 7.4 degree launch angle isn’t necessarily geared for homers, but it will keep his BA high and he crushes the ball so hard he doesn’t need a huge launch to rack up dingers. The improved plate approach is also a great sign that we could be in store for a monster season in 2023. I’m buying. 2023 Projection: 82/32/95/.274/.337/.512/0

48) Cristian Javier HOU, RHP, 26.0 – There is a starter logjam in Houston (less so at the moment with Verlander leaving town), but I highly doubt one of the smartest teams in baseball leave one of the best starters in the game out of their rotation. And one of the best starters in the game is exactly what Javier is with a 2.54 ERA and 33.2%/8.9% K%/BB% in 148.2 IP. He doesn’t throw gas with a 93.8 MPH 4-seamer, but it was the 10th most valuable 4-seamer in baseball, and his elite slider put up a .175 xwOBA (5th best overall with min 100 PA). Maybe it means Houston goes to a 6 man rotation, but I would be blown away if he isn’t in it. I named him one of my top 10 mid-season trade targets in late June, and his value has skyrocketed since then. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.08/215 in 170 IP

49) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 25.2 – Kirby dominated in his MLB debut with elite control (4.1% BB%) of a legitimate 6 pitch mix (4-seam, curve, cutter, sinker, slider, change). He threw each pitch at least 8% of the time, but the fastball is the money maker, throwing it 45.4% of the time and putting up a negative 18 run value on it, which was the 9th best in baseball. It led to a pitching line of 3.39/1.21/133/22 in 130 IP. As advertised from his prospect days, none of his secondaries are true out pitches, and his 24.5% K% isn’t standout (21.2% whiff% is well below average), but that is one hell of a rookie season. 2023 Projection: 12/3.45/1.11/178 in 170 IP

50) Luis Castillo SEA, RHP, 30.4 – Castillo went from the 2nd worst pitcher’s park in baseball to the very best at the trade deadline, and while his numbers didn’t take a jump, it was only because he was already in the midst of having his best season in Cincinnati. It was the first year of his career with a sub 3.00 ERA, granted just barely with a 2.99 ERA in 150.1 IP. His season was delayed by a shoulder issue, but he looked completely healthy with a 97.1 MPH fastball, and his K% bounced back from a down 2021 with a 27.2% K%. The move to Seattle cements his status as a near ace. 2023 Projection: 14/3.37/1.09/203 in 180 IP

51) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 24.6 – Cruz is the highest risk, highest reward player in fantasy, and as you can tell from this ranking, I’m betting on the reward. He has truly elite speed with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed (top 2%), stealing 11 bags in 87 games. He smokes the ball with a 91.9/97.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, which basically makes him launch angle proof, and an 8.3 degree launch isn’t that bad, leading to 17 homers. It should also help keep his batting average from completely falling off the face of the Earth, because the guy has a wee bit of a strikeout problem with a 34.8% K% and 35.4% whiff% (.233 BA). I like to take strategic risks in fantasy (if you can’t take risks in fantasy, when can you take risks?), and I’m betting on that K rate coming down because his strikeout rates in the minors really weren’t all that bad. I remember when Aaron Judge put up a 44.2% K% in his MLB debut and everyone got scared off, but I didn’t get scared off, and I’m not getting scared off Cruz either. 2023 Projection: 76/27/84/.244/.316/24 Prime Projection: 86/32/99/.258/.337/.512/26

52) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

53) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 32.11 – Altuve started running again out of nowhere and stole 18 bags in 19 attempts. Good luck trying to predict steals, and that goes doubly for 2023 with the new rules. His power was unaffected by the dead ball with 28 homers, even though his 85.9 MPH EV was a career low. He’s been pulling the ball in the air more than ever these past 2 seasons, and pulled flyballs were least affected by the dead balls. He also notched a career best 10.9% BB% as the cherry on top. 2023 Projection: 95/26/72/.288/.364/.490/14

54) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 29.2 – Fried’s control went from plus to elite with a 4.4% BB%, and it led to the best year of his career with a pitching line of 2.48/1.01/170/32 in 185.1 IP. I’ve noticed many guys with good control took it to another level in 2022, and I suspect it’s because they were less afraid to attack the plate with the dead ball. The balls may be less dead in 2022 (or may not be), but it’s not like Fried isn’t damn good with a “regular” ball, and he improved his arsenal this year by making his changeup a legitimate 5th pitch. He threw it a career high 14.1% and it put up an excellent .207 xwOBA with a 36.7% whiff%. He now has 5 pitches that range from above average to elite. A big K rate is the only thing missing. 2023 Projection: 14/3.00/1.07/170 in 180 IP

55) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 32.10 – Wheeler battled some shoulder soreness before the season, and a forearm injury kept him out for a month in August/September. It resulted in a small drop in velocity, but he had plenty of velocity to spare with it dropping 1.3 MPH to a still excellent 95.9 MPH. It also didn’t result in any performance decline as his elite control (5.6% BB%) and weak contact (85.9 MPH EV against) profile led to a 2.82 ERA with a 163/34 K/BB in 153 IP. He also dominated the playoffs with a 2.67 ERA in 30.1 IP. 2023 Projection: 14/3.08/1.05/199 in 185 IP

56) Paul Goldschmidt STL, 1B, 35.7 – Maybe I’m doing too much of “I told you to buy this guy and then he exploded after that,” but I put so much time into this and I’m proud of my hits. And I’ve genuinely hit on a ton of guys (I have misses too like Grandal, Tork, Giolito, and Nestor Cortes, among others). Goldy was my top mid-season trade target in late June of 2021, and since then he literally flipped a switch and turned back into an elite performer. His huge 2021 2nd half continued into 2022 where Goldy put up a 177 wRC+ in 151 games. He overperformed the underlying numbers by a good bit (.419 wOBA vs. .367 xwOBA), but his xwOBA was still in the top 5% of the league. He’s 35 now and I don’t think you can expect this level of production for much longer, but you can’t let an elite bat like this fall much further than this, even in a dynasty league. 2023 Projection: 95/32/99/.291/.390/.522/8

57) Joe Musgrove SDP, RHP, 30.4 – Musgrove throws a 6 pitch mix and all 6 pitches put up an above average xwOBA against. It led to a career best 2.93 ERA in 181 IP. Pitching to contact was all the rage this year, and Musgrove is a man of the times with his BB% dropping 1.5 percentage points to 5.7%, inducing tons of weak contact with a 86.4 MPH EV against. His K% went down with it, dropping 2.2 percentage points to 24.9%, but like I’ve mentioned, it seemed to be a conscious choice with the dead balls. 2023 Projection: 13/3.37/1.11/189 in 180

58) Kevin Gausman TOR, RHP, 32.3 – It turns out that Gausman didn’t turn to dust with his move from San Francisco to Toronto, putting up a pitching line of 3.35/1.24/205/28 in 174.2 IP. His 3.9% BB% and 3.34 xERA were both career bests. His elite splitter was tied for the 2nd most valuable splitter in baseball with Taijuan Walker, and behind my boy Tony Gonsolin. 2023 Projection: 13/3.48/1.16/210 in 180 IP

59) Nolan Arenado STL, 3B, 32.0 – Arenado put up a .381 wOBA vs. a .339 xwOBA, but he’s outperformed his xwOBA every year of his career, so I don’t think it means much. It’s because he doesn’t exactly crush the ball with an average-ish 88.7 MPH EV, but he obviously doesn’t exert himself an inch more than is needed as he slashed .293/.358/.533 with 30 homers and a 72/52 K/BB in 148 games. His 11.6% K% was the 2nd best mark of his career. 2023 Projection: 83/32/100/.277/.341/.510/3

60) Tyler Glasnow TBR, RHP, 29.8 – Glasnow returned from Tommy John surgery just in time to show everyone he is back to being elite, going 11.2 IP with a 15/0 K/BB and 1 ER, including the playoffs. The fastball sat 97.4 MPH and the 38.5%/7.7% K%/BB% shows the whiffs and control were in prime form. Durability is the biggest factor with him never throwing more than 111.2 IP in the majors, but he’s truly elite if he can stay healthy. 2023 Projection: 11/3.38/1.12/180 in 150 IP

61) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

62) Dustin May LAD, RHP, 25.7 – May returned from Tommy John surgery in late August, and while he wasn’t able to seamlessly pick up from his 2021 breakout, he showed the ingredients to get back there in 2023. He continued to throw the 97.2 MPH sinker much less in favor of his 98.1 MPH 4 seamer and secondaries (curve, cutter, change), which drove his 2021 breakout. The improved whiff% remained with a strong 29.7% whiff%, and he kept the ball on the ground as always with a 4.7 degree launch. Control is often the last thing to come back after returning from Tommy John, and that proved true for May as he had a career worst by a mile 11% BB%, which led to the poor 4.50 ERA in 30 IP. He’s had plus to elite control his entire career though, so I would be shocked if that didn’t bounce back in 2023. You have one last off-season to buy into May, because he’s headed for a monster 2023. 2023 Projection: 12/3.32/1.08/160 in 150 IP

63) Tommy Edman STL, 2B/SS, 27.11 – Edman’s power ticked up in his age 27 season with a career best 88.6 MPH EV and 6.2% Barrel%. It led to 13 homers and a .725 OPS, which is a bit of a bummer if that is the best he can do, but taking into account the dead ball it was good for a 108 wRC+. What you’re buying here is stolen bases, and Edman is an elite base stealer with 32 steals in 35 attempts. He’s perfectly set up to take advantage of the new stolen base rules. 2023 Projection: 88/14/59/.271/.325/.405/35

64) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. He’s an elite prospect. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

65) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

66) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

67) Max Scherzer NYM, RHP, 38.9 – Scherzer showed zero signs of decline in 2022 when on the mound. He put up a 2.29 ERA with a 30.6%/4.2% K%/BB% in 145.1 IP. The K’s were down slightly, but that was a trend around the league. The only way age reared it’s ugly head was with durability. He battled an oblique injury which led to career low in IP (other than his rookie year and 2020), and he hasn’t been able to surpass 179.1 IP since 2018. Don’t count on huge innings totals, but all signs point to him continuing to be elite. You deserve an elite prospect for him if you’re selling in dynasty. 2023 Projection: 14/2.98/0.98/209 in 175 IP

68) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 29.5 – Valdez was born to do one thing, and that thing is killing worms. He throws a 5 pitch mix and all 5 pitches induce grounders. His negative 3.6 degree launch angle is bested only by Clay Holmes’ ridiculous negative 8.1 degree launch. His 93.9 MPH sinker, which he goes to almost half the time, is his money maker, but his curveball, cutter, and changeup all graded out to almost elite when he went to them with a .202, .200, and .222 xwOBA against, respectively. He proved his walk rate won’t be a major issue with a 8.1% BB% and he also proved his durability with 201.1 IP. He’s not a true fantasy ace because he doesn’t rack up K’s and his WHIP’s are on the high side, but he’s in the tier right under that. 2023 Projection: 15/3.29/1.18/185 in 188 IP

69) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 29.0 – Olson wasn’t able to maintain the BA and strikeout gains he made in 2021 with his K% jumping back up 7.5 percentage points to 24.3% and his batting average tanking to .240. The power was no problemo though with him jacking 34 homers with an elite 92.9 MPH EV (top 3%). He’s one of the premier power hitters in the game, but the hope he could consistently marry the power with a high BA has dissipated. 2023 Projection: 88/35/105/.250/.340/.506/2

70) Dansby Swanson CHC, SS, 29.2 – Swanson’s power continues to tick up, beating the dead ball back with a stick (literally), smacking 25 homers with a career best 90.2 MPH and 15.7 degree launch. He also ran more than ever with 18 steals in 25 attempts. He needed BABIP luck (.348 BABIP) to notch a .277 BA as his plate approach remains average to below average with a 26.1%/7.0% K%/BB%, and with him landing in Chicago (8th worst park for righties), I would expect that BA to come down. 2023 Projection: 81/26/88/.260/.327/.452/14

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 17, 2022May 20, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 432 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s that time of the month again when the flowers are blooming and the rankings are flowing. It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! Last month’s rankings are in parenthesis. Here is the Top 432 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED May 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSEPCTS RANKINGS
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Tier 1

1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.10 – Strikeouts are down in a good way (22.4% K% at the dish) and up in a good way (35.4% K% on the hump)

2) (2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.6 – Perfect 3 for 3 on the bases keeps him just enough in that all category contributor category

3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.4 – Sore groin has kept him out since the 10th, but he should return soon. K rate is a bit high at 37% and sprint speed is a bit low at 27.7 ft/sec, but it’s merely something to keep an eye on as he’s back to dominating in 10 games since returning from a torn ACL

4) (5) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.4 – Been slowly ramping up baseball activities as he tries to return from a broken wrist at some point in June

5 (8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.3 – Has a 1.093 OPS in his last 19 games. Underlying numbers were elite even while he was slumping early. Tack on 8 steals and there is no way around the fact that Tucker is the elite of the elite

6) (4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.1 – Launch is back down to 4.5 degrees and he hasn’t been able to keep up last year’s insane breakout, but taking into the account the suppressed run environment, he’s still killing it with a 140 wRC+

7) (15) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – 95.1 MPH EV trails only Stanton and Judge, and the plate approach is elite with a 18%/14.1% K%/BB%

Tier 2

8) (6) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.2 – Swing and miss is up with a 25.3% K%, launch angle is still down with a 7.2 degree launch, and BB% is still low with a 5.1% BB%. A next level breakout doesn’t seem to be in the cards this year, but he’ll still be a 5 cat stud.

9) (10) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.9 – Backing up his 2021 contact gains with a 13.9% K%

10) (11) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.2 – Power is looking good with a 90 MPH EV, and he’s running enough to keep him interesting in that category with 3 steals. I almost popped him over Bichette, but I couldn’t do it quite yet

11) (7) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.10 – 2021 homer breakout hasn’t held with only 1 homer, but a career high 50% HardHit% shows the power will likely come. Only reason for the small drop was because the youngsters (Yordan, Robert, Franco) don’t seem as risky after strong starts

12) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – Still elite

13) (13) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Still elite

14) (17) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – He’s healthy. Career high 24.7% barrel%

Shadow14 (Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9

15) (9) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.4 – .236 BABIP is the main thing keeping the numbers down (.698 OPS), although he hasn’t been hitting the ball very hard (87 MPH EV), and he’s been a bit slower (27.3 ft/sec sprint speed).

16) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Hit/power combo looks as good as ever

17) (16) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Backing up his much improved control from last season with a 4.7% BB%

18) (18) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – Here’s what I wrote for Machado in my off-season Top 1,000, “He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022.” … The trend is holding as Machado is going insane with a 1.029 OPS

Tier 3

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED May 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on December 7, 2021December 20, 2021 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

I’m going to be releasing “Sneak Peeks” of my Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings all off-season over on my Patreon. Here is A Top 150 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 Catchers & Top 76 1B are already up)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Tier 1

1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.9 –Tatis has a shoulder issue. Acuna tore up his knee. Soto and Vlad don’t steal a ton, and they sure as hell don’t pitch. Yea, Ohtani’s older than them, but we are talking about a 27 year old, not someone approaching the dreaded 3 – 0 (see Mike Trout). He’s changed the definition of “all category” and “across the board” production in fantasy baseball forever. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22 – 8/3.48/1.15/150 in 125 IP

2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.5 – The underlying stats were elite all season, but it took until the 2nd half for the surface stats to catch up, slashing a ridiculous .348/.525/.639 in 72 games post break. He was my top pick in all non 5×5 AVG leagues last year (I will be updating those “Universal Rankings” this off-season too), and with his OBP projected to outpace everyone by a large margin, I might actually pick him over Ohtani in those leagues this year too. 5.8 degree launch angle is really the only thing you can quibble with. 2022 Projection: 108/33/103/.318/.460/.575/10

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.3 – Torn ACL could keep him out for at least a month into 2022, and it will be interesting to see how much he is willing to run when he returns. In the long run, missing a month shouldn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but when we are talking about the elite of the elite, every little bit counts. He would easily slot in at #2 without the injury. 2022 Projection: 99/35/85/.282/.389/.583/19

4) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.3 – Tatis is foregoing surgery on his left shoulder, which after seeing the year Bellinger just had, I don’t blame him. It does add a layer a risk to an otherwise almost spotless fantasy profile. I say “almost” spotless, because his whiff% jumped up 6.8 percentage points to a pretty dangerous 34.8%. 2022 Projection: 102/39/99/.277/.366/.581/21

5) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.0 – Vlad raised his launch angle 4.8 degrees to 9.4 degrees and all hell broke loose as he demolished 48 homers. He maintained his near elite K% and also notched a career high 12.3% BB%. This was the breakout we were promised. 2022 Projection: 113/41/110/.298/.385/.590/3

Tier 2

6) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.1 – Bichette isn’t really in the same conversation as the guys ranked ahead of him when it comes to real life hitting, but he is a fantasy machine. He hit .298 with 29 homers and 25 steals. If you want to look at it glass half full, as good as he’s been, there is still upside left in the tank if he can raise his 5.8% BB% and 7.3 degree launch angle. 2022 Projection: 105/31/92/.294/.356/.510/20

7) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.9 – Turner is the older and faster version of Bichette. He’s not putting up insane xwOBA’s, but he’s a fantasy owner’s best friend, coming up just 2 homers shy of a .300/30/30 season. 2022 Projection: 110/27/84/.309/.361/.512/30

8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.2 – Speaking of elite xwOBA’s, Tucker put up a .394 xwOBA which is in the top 6% of the league. He notched career bests in K% (15.9%), whiff% (20.3%), BB% (9.3%), launch angle (17.6 degrees), and Max EV (111.1 MPH). He also chipped in 14 steals. He’s elite. 2022 Projection: 93/33/101/.285/.350/.535/16

9) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.3 – Albies power took a step forward as he entered his mid 20’s, notching career highs in exit velocity (89.6 MPH) and launch angle (21.1 degrees), which led to his first 30 homer season. He also ran more on the bases, leading to his first 20 steal season, and considering how successful he’s been on the bases in his career (60 for 73), he should probably run even more. 2022 Projection: 100/29/93/.274/.333/.492/20

10) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.8 – Robert played in only 68 games, but the sheer dominance of those games shows he belongs in the land of the elite. His power exploded with 13 homers and a 91.2/96.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, and his contact rates improved dramatically with a 28.2% whiff% and 20.6% K% (41.5% and 32.2% in 2020). He did slow down with a 28 ft/s sprint speed (29.1 in 2020), but some of that is likely due to the torn hip flexor that kept him out. He is also still a very aggressive hitter with a 4.7% BB%, so while it might cap his upside in OBP leagues, all of the ingredients are there for him to have a legitimate shot at finishing as the #1 overall player in 5×5 leagues. 2022 Projection: 91/28/93/.278/.332/.508/18

11) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranking, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11 Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/14

12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – Ramirez has an elite plate approach (13.7%/11.3% K%/BB%) with power (90 MPH EV with a 18.3 degree launch), and speed (28.2 ft/s sprint speed). The sports crime of being almost 30 is the only thing keeping Ramirez outside of the top 10, but in a redraft league (or if you are in all in mode), he has a real argument to be in the 1st overall mix. 2022 Projection: 105/34/94/.277/.368/.531/24

13) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Harper is also in the almost 30 club, but he just put up the best xwOBA in all of baseball with a .427 mark. He hasn’t really shown any signs of slowing down on the bases. There should be at least a few more years of elite production. 2022 Projection: 103/36/96/.281/.399/.578/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9 –Ohtani is so ridiculous that he is still an elite player even after taking away 9 wins and 156 K’s in 130.1 IP. This is where I would take him as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22

14) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Not only did Burnes not regress a single iota from his 2020 breakout, but he took it up another level with a league leading 30.4% K-BB%. The only other qualified pitchers even close to that mark were Scherzer and Cole. His BB% dropped 4.8 percentage points to 5.2%. He put up a 2.01 xERA which was bested only by deGrom’s 1.55 mark among starters, and deGrom is 33 years old coming off an elbow injury. Burnes is in a class of his own in dynasty. 2022 Projection: 15/2.71/0.98/267 in 195 IP

15) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Devers matured at the plate in 2021 with a career best 9.3% BB%, and he also brought his K% back down to 21.5% after jumping to 27% in 2020. He always hit the living crap out of the ball, and putting it all together led to a career best .389 xwOBA with 38 homers in 156 games. 2022 Projection: 95/37/106/.284/.358/.546/6

16) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – The injury gods struck Trout down again as a significant tear in his calf limited him to just 22 games. He was elite as ever in those 22 games with a .421 xwOBA, although I think it is worth pointing out his whiff% bloated all the way up to 27.5% (19.5% in 2020) and his launch angle tanked to 12.9 degrees (23.1 in 2020). Considering the small sample, I don’t think it means that much, but it’s worth noting. Along with entering his nursing home years, a lower body injury can’t help the odds he will get back to stealing bases, but all indications are that he will be elite everywhere else assuming he can stay healthy. 2022 Projection: 103/40/101/.293/.405/.620/8

17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – I originally ranked Betts 14th overall on my Top 100 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, but when I was on the clock at 18th overall in the Rotowire 20 team OBP Dynasty Mock Draft, I found myself concerned that his hip injury could be the catalyst for him to stop running as much in the 2nd act of his career. A bone spur in his right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has him dropping a bit for me. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13

18) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – The knees look A-OK as Yordan got back to raking after missing almost all of 2020. His 93.2 MPH EV was 8th best in the league and his .386 xwOBA is elite. He also currently has a 244 wRC+ in 12 playoff games. His sprint speed did drop to 26.2 ft/s (27 ft/s in 2019), so maybe the knees become an issue when he gets older, but it looks like clear sailing for the next several years. 2022 Projection: 94/35/108/.281/.363/.548/1

Tier 3

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on February 9, 2021March 3, 2021 by Michael Halpern

Top 1,000 2021 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Welcome to the 3rd annual Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings. 16-team, deep roster, 5×5 category league is what I had in my mind during the process. You can find links to a separate Top 473 Prospects Rankings and Top 100 First Year Player Draft Rankings below. Here is the Top 1,000 2021 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

Click here for the Top 473 2021 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Only Rankings
Click here for the Top 100 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves

*Prime Projections – These projections are meant to give you a general idea of what I think about a prospect’s future stat profile in a relatively good outcome scenario. I find this helpful as a quick reference to see how a prospect’s tools/skills translate to fantasy categories.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

1) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 23.3 – I’m a glutton for homers and steals (and Chinese food), and Acuna ranks ahead of Soto in both departments. There is risk Acuna eventually turns into a 3 true outcome slugger as he whiffed at a career high 29.9% rate, pulled the ball a career high 43% of the time, launched the ball a career high 18.6 degrees, and swung at fewer pitches both in and out of the zone, which is why Juan Soto is the no doubt #1 overall pick in almost anything other than standard 5×5. 2021 Projection: 124/42/98/.271/.384/.570/30

2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 22.5 – Career low 26.1 ft/sec sprint speed and 4.3 degree launch angle, but it didn’t stop Soto from nabbing 6 bags and cranking 13 homers in 47 games. Only thing that could stop him was a positive Covid test that delayed the start of his season until August 5th, and even that he quickly beat with 3 rapid result antigen tests and claims it was a false positive. 2021 Projection: 112/36/109/.309/.431/.596/11

3) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 22.3 – New exit velocity King with a whopping 95.9 MPH average, knocking Aaron Judge off the throne after a 4 year run, but major improvements in K% (down 5.9% to 23.7%) is the main reason Tatis is in the conversation for the top overall pick. 2021 Projection: 108/36/101/.279/.367/.563/25

4) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 29.8 – Stole a single base on two attempts in 53 games. Still plenty fast but did slow down slightly with a career low 4.33 home plate to 1B runtime. 2021 Projection: 111/44/105/.288/.417/.603/10

5) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 28.6 – Jumped on the first pitch 24% of the time in 2020, up from 16.4% in 2019. It just goes to show that even for the elite, you can never stop making adjustments. “If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” 2021 Projection: 121/33/100/.294/.367/.536/22

6) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 27.9 – Maintained 2019’s exit velocity gains, except this year it showed up in his home run total with 12 dingers in 59 games. The added power hasn’t impacted his speed at all with the 5th fastest sprint speed in the game. On top of all that, he notched a career best 13.9% K%. He’s peaking all over our faces. 2021 Projection: 105/26/88/.297/.362/.506/34

7) Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 25.9 – Down-ish year mostly due to a .245 BABIP, but exit velocity did drop 1.8 MPH to 89.3 so it wasn’t purely due to bad luck. More importantly, he maintained the major Whiff% gains he made in 2019 with a 23.3% mark. Considering the shortened season and the fact his underlying numbers were more or less in line with career norms, it would be silly to sell low on Bellinger. Update: Underwent surgery to repair a dislocated right shoulder. I originally had him ranked 5th but the separation is so razer thin at the top, the injury is enough to knock him down 2 spots. He is expected to be fully healthy for 2021. 2021 Projection: 100/39/101/.273/.368/.570/14

8) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 28.6 – Increased launch angle every single year of his 6 year career which led to Ramirez crushing 17 homers in 58 games with a 23.2 degree launch angle. The power gains wouldn’t have been possible without the 2.3 MPH jump in FB/LD exit velocity, now sitting at a respectable 94.1 MPH. 2021 Projection: 105/35/103/.276/.370/.557/23

9) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 29.4 – Strikeout rate spiked to a career high 30.8%, partly because he became a more patient hitter (career high 18.6% BB%), but also because he simply swung and missed at a career worst rate (33.6% Whiff%). Whiff% was elevated in 2019 as well (28.2% after sitting around 23% the rest of his career), so this looks to be a trend. 2021 Projection: 107/33/99/.282/.383/.546/16

10) Trevor Story COL, SS, 28.4 – Free agent after the 2021 season, meaning Story’s value could take a big hit if he doesn’t re-sign with Colorado. Of course, maybe he can DJ LeMahieu it. 2021 Projection: 107/35/92/.281/.350/.541/25

11) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 28.6 – Career bests in K%, BB%, exit velocity, and launch angle, all while stealing 8 bags in 58 games. Unlucky .268 BA (.307 xBA) kept Harper’s overall value from absolutely exploding. 2021 Projection: 106/38/104/.270/.397/.535/16

12) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 27.4 – Underwhelming season, and while there is nothing really setting off alarm bells in the underlying numbers, he did notch a career worst 20.4% whiff% along with a career worst 4.42 runtime to 1st. Don’t go panic selling, but it might be enough to knock Lindor out of that very elite tier. 2021 Projection: 98/30/88/.272/.341/.497/17

13) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 25.10 – Turned his fastball into a dominant pitch, upping the velocity 1 MPH to 94.1 MPH and spin rate 100 revolutions to 2354 revolutions per minute. It led to a 12% increase in whiff rate on the pitch. 2020 erased any doubt that Bieber is a true ace. 2021 Projection: 16/3.03/1.06/259 in 202 IP

14) Wander Franco TB, SS, 20.1 – I’m no prospect hoarder. I don’t do never ending rebuilds. I took over a perennial doormat in an 18 team league I joined last off-season and dealt off Nick Madrigal, Ian Anderson, Luis Patino, Casey Mize, DL Hall, Luis Garcia, the draft pick that turned into Jasson Dominguez, and multiple other draft picks in what led to a 2nd place finish and 2 more years of a championship compete window. “You play to win the game.” I say all this because Wander Franco is the exception to that rule. He is the type of generational prospect you stay patient with. Franco’s career 7% K% makes Vlad Jr look like a strikeout machine with a 12% mark over that same time period playing at the same levels. He’s next level special, and the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects. 2021 Projection: May-74/18/71/.276/.337/.435/8 Prime Projection: 113/28/106/.311/.394/.541/14

15) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 23.1 – Wasn’t the same after returning from a grade 1 sprain of the LCL in his right knee, slashing .361/.391/.672 in 14 games before the injury and .242/.266/.355 in 15 games after the injury. Even with the injury, he made incremental improvements in Whiff% (down 2.9% to 21.6%), FB/LD exit velocity (up 1.8 MPH to 94.7), and launch angle (up 1.6 degress to 12). 2021 Projection: 95/25/86/.285/.338/.483/17

16) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 32.9 – Increased velocity for the 4th year in a row to a now incredible 99 MPH. It resulted in a career high 41% whiff% (up from 31.5% in 2019). deGrom inexplicably keeps getting better. 2021 Projection: 14/2.81/0.98/267 in 199 IP

17) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 28.9 – Complete bounce back from a down 2019. K% dropped back down to 14.6%, barrel% jumped back up to 11%, and even stolen bases ticked back up with 6 steals in 60 games . 2021 Projection: 93/34/102/.284/.360/.538/9

18) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 30.7 – Homers were up (career high 1.73 HR/9) and got hit harder (exit velocity up 2.8 MPH to 90.4), but considering the small sample and strong overall numbers (2.84 ERA), I wouldn’t read too much into it. 2021 Projection: 16/3.18/1.08/265 in 198 IP

19) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 27.0 – It would be easy to point to the lack of cheating as the reason for Bregman’s down year, but the underlying numbers don’t really back that up. The biggest culprits seems to be luck (.254 BABIP) and his weak FB/LD exit velocity finally catching to him with only 6 homers in 42 games on the back of a meager 90.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 101/29/96/.281/.395/.519/6

20) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 28.6 – Perfect 8 for 8 on the base paths in 56 games is nice to see after he stole only 4 in 155 games last year. If he can maintain anything close to that pace, Bogaerts has the upside to be a top 5 fantasy player. 2021 Projection: 92/25/87/.289/.360/.505/10

21) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 23.4 – 20.2% K% in his first extended MLB action is extremely encouraging considering the strong underlying Statcast numbers (91.1 MPH exit velocity with a 14.9 degree launch) and baserunning ability (8 steals in 58 games). Tucker is a near elite dynasty asset. 2021 Projection: 87/28/91/.270/.335/.503/16

22) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 24.3 – Missed over a month with a wrist injury, but ripped it up after his return, slashing .338/.372/.581 with 5 homers and 3 steals in 18 games. He performed well in 52 post season PA too (.277/.327/.447), putting to bed any concerns about his slow start and injury. 2021 Projection: 94/25/85/.283/.341/.479/15

23) Corey Seager LAD, SS, 26.11 – Here is what I tweeted about Seager before the season (and echoed these same sentiments in my 2020 Top 1,000): “Look out for a Corey Seager power breakout: Another year removed from Tommy John & hip surgery, raised launch angle to a career high 14.1 degrees, and turns 26 in April, meaning he is entering his “man muscle” years. Good buy low in dynasty and a discount at 148 ADP in redraft.” … A power breakout is exactly what happened, as Seager’s exit velocity exploded to 93.2 MPH and he cranked 23 homers in 70 games including the playoffs. 2021 Projection: 92/30/99/.298/.361/.537/3

24) Vlad Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 22.0 – Lost over 30 pounds one month after the season ended and claimed he fell out of shape during the Covid shutdown. The major breakout didn’t happen in 2020, but power did take a step forward with a 3.1 MPH jump in exit velocity to 92.5 MPH. His speed can be measured with a sundial (as my high school coach used to love to yell at me) with a 25.3 ft/sec sprint speed, but after losing the weight this off-season, maybe he can start to turn some more of those groundballs into hits. 2021 Projection: 87/28/92/.286/.361/.501/2

25) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 24.5 – Strikeout rate ballooned to a career worst 27% which lead to a .263 BA, but he continued to absolutely demolish the ball with a career high 93 MPH exit velocity. Sprint speed dropping to a below average 26.5 ft/sec is not a good sign for his future stolen base totals. 2021 Projection: 91/32/100/.291/.338/.513/5

26) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 26.8 – Got off to a slow start and missed some time with a blister, but Buehler was back to his dominant self by the time the playoffs rolled around, putting up a 1.80 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 25 postseason innings. He had a 5.22 ERA in his first 6 starts of 2019 as well, so I wouldn’t sweat the slow start to this season either. 2021 Projection: 14/3.36/1.10/207 in 180 IP

27) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 24.4 – Incremental improvements in K% (26.6% to 24.8%) and exit velocity (91.2 MPH to 92.4 MPH) further cements Eloy as one of the top young power hitters in the game. Improvements in plate discipline (5.3% BB%) and GB% (51.9%) will unlock his full potential. 2021 Projection: 86/35/100/.278/.331/.541/1

28) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 27.9 – Followed up 2019 breakout by maintaining all of the gains he made along with taking another step in the power department, adding 3 MPH to his FB/LD exit velocity (93.7 MPH). 2021 Projection: 95/22/71/.290/.333/.462/19

29) Adalberto Mondesi KC, SS, 25.8 – After putting up a .440 OPS in the first 37 games, he came back from the dead in the 2nd half, slashing .376/.424/.706 with 6 homers and 16 steals in 22 games. He was coming off major labrum surgery over the off-season, so it’s not a surprise it took him a little bit to shake the rust off. Mondesi might be the most divisive player in the fantasy community right now. 2021 Projection: 83/19/74/.253/.296/.432/48

30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 23.8 – The wheels fell off in September, posting a .136/.237/.173 triple-slash. Overall, Robert was who we thought he was, an elite power/speed combo (11 homers and 9 steals in 56 games) with contact issues (41.6% whiff%). 2021 Projection: 85/26/84/.250/.321/.468/23

31) Freddie Freeman ATL, 1B, 31.7 – Getting bit by the Covid bug must have given Freeman superpowers because he put up career bests is almost every underlying and surface stat there is. It would take too long to list them all. 2021 Projection: 105/35/109/.303/.404/.560/5

32) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 27.10 – Strikeout rate jumped to a career high 33.2% and brought BB% back down to 8% (spiked to 9.4% in 2019). The strong season erased any concerns after the slightly down 2019. 2021 Projection: 14/3.49/1.17/222 in 195 IP

33) Austin Meadows TB, OF, 25.11 – After being my greatest hit in 2019, Meadows turned into my biggest miss in 2020. Strikeout rate jumped to 32.9% and sprint speed tanked to 26.5 ft/sec, which are both completely out of character for his entire professional career. This leads me to believe that his struggles were largely due to catching Covid in July and never getting on track. Buy low. 2021 Projection: 87/26/83/.273/.346/.477/12

34) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 23.9 – Underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on both knees in late August. Expected to be ready to go for the start of 2021. He’s one of the most talented young hitters in the game, so the risk is still worth the reward, but the fear of chronic knee issues has to knock him down a bit. 2021 Projection: 82/31/95/.272/.361/.546/1

35) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 30.10 – Played through a left wrist injury, and while he couldn’t match his elite 2019 career year, he got back to doing Yeoman’s work with a .286/.418/.497 triple-slash, 9 homers, and a 31/38 K/BB in 52 games. 2021 Projection: 91/30/102/.290/.388/.533/3

36) Trevor Bauer LAD, RHP, 30.2 – Drastically increased the spin rate on every one of his pitches (other than his changeup which he basically ditched) which resulted in a career high 36% K% and career low 6.1% BB%. 2021 Projection: 14/3.40/1.17/239 in 191 IP

37) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 26.9 – Backed up 2019 breakout with an equally impressive 2020, relying mostly on his dominant fastball/changeup combo. 2021 Projection: 13/3.54/1.18/227 in 180 IP

38) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 25.10 – Never fully recovered from Covid and was dealing with a lack of energy and strength all season. I’m no virologist, so I have no idea what the chances are these issues will last until 2021, but I’m going to assume a return to full health. 2021 Projection: 89/26/85/.263/.344/.475/10

39) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 25.6 – The Cardinals Covid outbreak made an already tough season even tougher for Cardinals players, and Flaherty was never really able to get on track with a 4.91 ERA in 40.1 IP. One thing to keep an eye on is that Flaherty’s BABIP normalized this season (.281) after sitting abnormally low the past 2 seasons. 2021 Projection: 12/3.62/1.20/214 in 184 IP

40) George Springer TOR, OF, 31.6 – Put up a career best 35.9% GB% (44.6% in 2019) while also improving his K% to a career best 17.1%. It led to 14 homers in 51 games (plus 4 homers in 13 playoff games). Combined with a career year in 2019, Springer is establishing himself as a near elite hitter. 2021 Projection: 99/34/91/.272/.363/.530/6

41) Gleyber Torres NYY, SS, 24.4 – Mediocre numbers on the season (.724 OPS), but this is a pretty clear case of one extended slump tanking your numbers due to the shortened season. If there was any question, he put up a 246 wRC+ in 30 postseason at-bats. 2021 Projection: 92/30/92/.275/.357/.504/4

42) Yu Darvish SD, RHP, 34.7 – Improved control from the 2nd half of 2019 carried over to 2020 with a career best 4.7% BB%. Also notched a career high 96.2 MPH four seamer velocity. It all resulted in Darvish moving into the very elite tier of pitchers. 2021 Projection: 15/3.27/1.09/223 in 175 IP

43) Luis Castillo CIN, RHP, 28.4 – Made incremental improvements in K% (30.5%), BB% (8.2%), exit velocity against (86 MPH), and launch angle against (2.2 degrees). 2021 Projection: 13/3.56/1.21/222 in 185 IP

44) Blake Snell SD, LHP, 28.4 – Didn’t pitch more than 5.2 innings in any of his 17 starts, culminating in the now infamous decision to pull him after a dominant 5.1 innings in Game 6 of the World Series. Biggest concern is his elbow, which required arthroscopic surgery in 2019 and a cortisone shot in Feb 2020. 2021 Projection: 12/3.48/1.24/221 in 170 IP

45) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 28.11 – Battled through a stress fracture in his right rib, a right shoulder injury and a right calf strain which limited him to 28 games. The injuries resulted in a 3.8 MPH drop in exit velocity. He has power to spare, but he has to be on the field to take advantage of it. 2021 Projection: 89/34/86/.263/.361/.541/4

46) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 26.4 – Ripped 10 dingers in September to close out the season after underwhelming in the first half. Alonso is your classic low average slugger. 2021 Projection: 88/40/103/.249/.342/.531/1

47) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 28.2 – Fastball was just as dominant in 2020 as it was in 2019, ranking 2nd in baseball behind only Marco Gonzalez. Changeup, curve, and slider all took a step forward as well. 2021 Projection: 13/3.51/1.15/205 in 170 IP

48) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 25.8 – Built on his 2019 breakout in 2020. BB% dropped down to 8.6%, which is nice to see after the 10.8% mark he put up in 2019 was the biggest cause for concern coming into the year. 2021 Projection: 12/3.61/1.25/202 in 170 IP

49) Tyler Glasnow TB, RHP, 27.7 – K% exploded to 38.2%. Gave back some of the gains he made in BB% in 2019 (up 3.1% to 9.2%) and got hit up for a career worst 90.4 MPH exit velocity, but most of the underlying stats show the 4.08 ERA was unlucky (3.11 xERA and 2.75 xFIP). 2021 Projection: 11/3.48/1.20/205 in 159 IP

50) Trent Grisham SD, OF, 24.5 – Power took a step forward with his FB/LD exit velocity jumping 3.1 MPH to 94 MPH. Tack on a plus plate approach (12.3% BB%), plus speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint speed), and a reasonable whiff% (24.4%), and even this ranking might be underrating Grisham. 2021 Projection: 92/23/75/.256/.351/.465/21

51) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 21.8 – Was all the buzz at alternate camp, drilling homers and showing increased power. Combine that with a plus hit tool and plus speed, and Kelenic has the ingredients to be an elite all category contributor. 2021 Projection: June-53/15/47/.257/.318/.431/10 Prime Projection: 93/26/89/.282/.355/.478/15

52) Marcell Ozuna ATL, OF, 30.5 – Career (shortened) year, cranking 18 homers with a career high 93 MPH exit velocity, 16.4 degree launch angle and 14.2% BB%. Only thing to keep an eye on is that it also came with a career high 31.4% whiff%. 2021 Projection: 86/34/99/.273/.352/.518/5

53) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR, OF, 27.7 – .575 OPS in first 18 games had many people dropping Gurriel in redrafts, but he closed the season red hot, slashing .345/.390/.634 with 10 homers, 3 steals, and a 34/11 K/BB in 154 PA. Improved his whiff% by 6.5% to 26.3% and maintained a very strong 90.8 MPH exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 84/28/90/.274/.328/.492/7

54) Sonny Gray CIN, RHP, 31.5 – Not only did Gray maintain his drastic 2019 strikeout breakout, but he actually improved his K% again to 30.6%. 2021 Projection: 12/3.51/1.20/187 in 170 IP

55) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 27.2 – Exit velocity against plummeted to 83.4 MPH, which is completely out of line with the rest of his career and doesn’t feel sustainable. HR/LD rate sat at a miniscule 4.9%. Fried is a damn good pitcher, just not quite this good. 2021 Projection: 13/3.55/1.21/178 in 174 IP

56) Brandon Lowe TB, OF/2B, 26.9 – Here is what I tweeted about Brandon Lowe last off-season (and echoed those exact same sentiments in the 2020 Top 1,000), “Brandon Lowe getting seriously underrated. Elite underlying power hitting numbers (18.7 launch, 96 MPH FB/LD), and while 34.6% K% is high, he’s done much better than that every other year of his career including 2018 in the majors. Also has some speed.” … Lowe brought his K% down to 25.9% in 2020 en route to a monster season, slashing .269/.362/.554 with 14 homers, 3 steals, and a 58/25 K/BB in 56 games. 2021 Projection: 85/34/89/.259/.340/.529/8

57) Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 27.1 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2020 and is expected to be out until June or July 2021. If you can take the hit in the 1st half of the season, nabbing Severino is a great way to get a long term ace at a discount. 2021 Projection: 6/3.65/1.20/98 in 90 IP

58) Jesus Luzardo OAK, LHP, 23.6 – Solid rookie season, showing off a mid 90’s four seamer and sinker while establishing his curveball and changeup as plus pitches. Health and durability over 180+ innings is still the biggest question mark. 2021 Projection: 9/3.74/1.21/156 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.49/1.19/198 in 183 IP

59) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 26.6 – Developed a cutter which immediately became his most valuable pitch and mostly ditched his 4-seamer which was one of the worst 4-seamers in baseball in 2019. 13.27 K/9 ranked 4th overall behind only Glasnow, Bieber, and deGrom (minimum 30 IP). 2021 Projection: 11/3.71/1.26/192 in 160 IP

60) Keston Hiura MIL, 2B, 24.8 – Exit velocity dropped 4 MPH to 87.4 MPH, but still put up big power numbers with 13 homers in 59 games. Strikeout rate got even worse (30.7% in 2019 to 34.6% in 2020), but Hiura has shown the ability to make much better contact during his minor league career, so I don’t think all hope is lost. 2021 Projection: 81/30/87/.247/.325/.483/9

61) Nolan Arenado STL, 3B, 30.0 – Season was tanked by a shoulder injury that he suffered on July 29th. Was shut down in September when an MRI revealed inflammation in the AC joint and a bone bruise. Arenado battled a shoulder injury in 2018 as well, so this seems to be a recurring issue. Trade to St. Louis further depresses his value. 2021 Projection: 86/32/92/.268/.347/.518/2

62) Matt Chapman OAK, 3B, 27.11 – Underwent labrum repair surgery on his right hip in September with a 4 month recovery timetable. Chapman took everything to the max in 2020 with his launch angle rising 7.7 degrees to 24.1 degrees, FB/LD exit velocity rising to 99 MPH, and strikeout rate exploding 13.6% to 35.5%. It’s only a 37 game sample, so I’m assuming these numbers would have regressed a bit as the season wore on. 2021 Projection: 95/36/92/.252/.343/.508/1

63) Eugenio Suarez CIN, 3B, 28.7 – Whiff% on a 3 year incline culminating with a career worst 31.7% in 2020, but the extremely low .202 BA was mostly due a .214 BABIP. The power was full throttle with 15 bombs in 57 games. 2021 Projection: 83/35/97/.257/.349/.528/3

64) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 27.0 – Career worst strikeout rate (31.4%) and career worst BABIP (.227) led to a .195 batting average. Elite power is intact, so years like this are just part of the deal when you own low average sluggers. 2021 Projection: 82/37/96/.242/.343/.512/1

65) Zach Plesac CLE, RHP, 26.2 – Breakout year with a pitching line of 2.28/0.80/55/6 in 55.1 IP. Strikeout rate exploded with an 11.1% whiff% increase on his changeup. Slider became the 5th most valuable slider in baseball. 2021 Projection: 12/3.69/1.19/164 in 168 IP

66) Ian Anderson ATL, RHP, 22.11 – Electrifying MLB debut with a pitching line of 1.59/1.10/65/24 in 51 IP including the playoffs. Changeup and curve both put up a whiff% around 40% (39.8% and 40.5% respectively) and the fastball sat at a respectable 94.1 MPH. Spin rates don’t jump out at you, but does an excellent job of tunneling his pitches. 2021 Projection: 10/3.76/1.26/170 in 155 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.42/1.19/228 in 193 IP

67) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B, 27.6 – Couldn’t maintain his 2019 power breakout, hitting only 2 homers in 45 games as his FB/LD exit velocity dropped 1.9 MPH to 91.6. It was also a product of bad luck as he had a ridiculously low 3.8% HR/FB rate. 2021 Projection: 90/22/84/.291/.346/.469/8

68) Javier Baez CHC, SS, 28.4 – Underlying and surface stats down across the board. Sprint speed dropped to a career low 27.9 ft/sec, which isn’t a great sign as he enters his late 20’s, but also might be a sign he wasn’t in top shape for this slapdash season. 2021 Projection: 88/27/87/.263/.309/.486/9

69) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 22.0 – Armageddon MLB debut with a 41.7% K%, 0 steals, and a .161/.212/.266 triple-slash in 132 PA. Only silver lining was the strong statcast numbers (90.6 MPH exit velocity and 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed). This was the year Adell was supposed to adjust to the Triple-A level after striking out 32.6% of the time there in 2019, so the extreme struggles on the MLB level shouldn’t be surprising. I’m still in. 2021 Projection: 55/17/51/.236/.301/.438/5 Prime Projection: 92/34/96/.262/.341/.512/15

70) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 20.3 – Suffered a hairline fracture in his left wrist in July which sidelined him for most of alternate camp. Struggled in Liga de Beisbol Dominicano, slashing .208/.300/.264 with 0 homers, 3 steals, and a 15/5 K/BB in 53 AB. The lost year and struggles in Winter League don’t change his massive upside. 2021 Projection: 26/7/30/.252/.312/.418/2 Prime Projection: 91/31/99/.277/.353/.522/8

71) Dinelson Lamet SD, RHP, 28.8 – Most valuable slider in baseball by a landslide with a negative 19 run value. Next best is Brad Keller and Matt Wisler at -10. BB% improved for the second season in a row to 7.5%. Suffered from biceps tendinitis late in the season but is not expected to need surgery. 2021 Projection: 10/3.63/1.20/183 in 147 IP

72) Carlos Correa HOU, SS, 26.6 – Exploded in the playoffs after a quiet regular season, slashing .362/.455/.766 with 6 homers in 13 games. He hit 5 homers in 58 regular season games. It’s just another example that you can’t put too much stock into only a 60 game sample. 2021 Projection: 84/26/93/.273/.351/.489/3

73) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH, 26.9 – Coming off Tommy John surgery, Ohtani started 2020 with two horrific starts (37.80 ERA in 1.2 IP) and was then shut down from pitching for the season with a grade 1-2 strain of the flexor pronator mass in his right arm. Making matters worse, he didn’t perform all that well at the dish either with a 2.7% increase in K% (28.6%) and a 3.7 MPH decrease in exit velocity (89.1 MPH). He’s too young and talented to sell low on, but next season could be his last to prove he can be a long term two way player. 2021 Projection: Hitting-65/20/68/.258/.349/.486/14 — Pitching-6/3.93/1.31/115 in 100 IP

74) Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 23.4 – MLB strikeout rate remained elevated at 27.5% (29.3% in 2019), albeit in a small 69 PA sample. Sprint speed mysteriously dropped to 27.7 ft/sec (28.8 in 2019), which could mean there was some kind of undisclosed injury, and would be oddly encouraging as a reason for the weak numbers (.596 OPS). 2021 Projection: 74/20/69/.258/.327/.441/8 Prime Projection: 88/26/82/.274/.348/.472/11

75) Marco Luciano SF, SS, 19.7 – Hit a monster homerun in fall instructional league with an alleged exit velocity of 119 MPH. Matt Daniels, the Giants’ coordinator of pitching sciences, claimed Luciano’s dinger was “quite possibly the furthest home run I’ve ever witnessed in person.” ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 91/33/99/.277/.350/.520/9

76) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 24.8 – Everything but the strikeouts were there in the regular season (3.27 ERA with 45 K’s in 55 IP) and those exploded in the playoffs with 29 K’s in 23 IP. Continues to be among the best in the league at inducing weak contact. 2021 Projection: 10/3.49/1.18/134 in 140 IP

77) Clayton Kershaw LAD, LHP, 33.0 – Velocity up 1.3 MPH from 2019, but is still down overall at 91.6 MPH. Continues to dominate with the decreased velocity even as his FIP’s/xERA’s,/xFip’s etc … have all risen to slightly more mortal levels. 2021 Projection: 13/3.32/1.07/187 in 177 IP

78) Stephen Strasburg WASH, RHP, 32.8 – Limited to only 2 starts due to carpel tunnel syndrome in his right hand which required surgery in August. He’s expected to be ready to go for 2021. Injuries have been a thorn in Strasburg’s side for his entire career. 2021 Projection: 12/3.61/1.16/195 in 167 IP

79) Starling Marte MIA, OF, 32.6 – Numbers were right in line with career norms, but if you take out the magnifying glass and investigate for signs of decline, you would see a career worst 4.26 second runtime from home plate to first base (up from 4.15) and a 1.5 MPH decline in exit velocity (87.1 MPH). If your team gets off to a slow start in 2021, Marte is a piece you definitely want to put on the block. 2021 Projection: 83/20/74/.275/.332/.447/24

80) Whit Merrifield KC, 2B/OF, 32.4 – Speed slightly declined every year over the last 4 years, dropping to a career worst 28.4 ft/sec in 2020. Similar to Starling Marte, I would try to milk one more good year out of Merrifield before putting him on the trade block. 2021 Projection: 89/18/71/.292/.340/.451/24

81) JT Realmuto PHI, C, 30.1 – Slowly improved power production nearly every year of his career, culminating with a career high .225 ISO and 11 homers in 47 games in 2020, but it came at the cost of some swing and miss with a whiff% that jumped 6% to a career high 29.8%. 2021 Projection: 86/25/81/.268/.343/.487/8

82) Cavan Biggio TOR, 2B, 26.0 – Maintained high walk rate (15.5%) while bringing strikeout rate down 5.6% to 23%. He doesn’t crush the ball (91.6 MPH FB/LD exit velo), but he hits it in the air and is an excellent base stealer at a perfect 20 for 20 in his 159 game MLB career. 2021 Projection: 96/23/73/.257/.370/.441/13

83) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 21.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Torkelson launched 54 homers in 129 games at Arizona State. He’s a big bodied power hitter with patience, below average speed, and a BA that shouldn’t hurt you. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 89/35/102/.270/.353/.529/3

84) Andrew Vaughn CHW, 1B, 23.0 – Flip a coin between Vaughn and Tork. Vaughn will give you less power but a better average and will likely be hitting in a better lineup for the foreseeable future. I still lean with Tork and the extra power, but it’s close. 2021 Projection: June-38/12/36/.257/.335/.444/1 Prime Projection: 92/29/95/.282/.364/.509/3

85) Alec Bohm PHI, 3B, 24.9 – Excellent MLB debut, slashing .338/.400/.481 with 4 homers and a 20%/8.9% K%/BB%. BABIP was high (.410) and FB% was low (25.4%), but he hit the ball very hard (90.2 MPH exit velo) and he did a much better job of lifting the ball at Double-A in 2019 (40.7% FB%). 2021 Projection: 78/23/86/.272/.338/.444/4 Prime Projection: 88/27/96/.285/.357/.488/5

86) Randy Arozarena TB, OF, 26.1 – I saw the writing on the wall in my 2020 Top 1,000 ranking, writing, “Hit the ball hard in his MLB debut with a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity to go along with plus speed and a good feel to hit.” But then I got scared off by the playing time logjam in Tampa, writing, “Joining the deep and talented Rays roster likely limits his upside to a super utility player in the near future,” and ultimately ranked him 677th overall. The rest is history, as Arozarena bullied his way into an everyday role and exploded with a .333 BA, 17 homers, 4 steals, and a 41/14 K/BB in 43 games including the playoffs. He showed off the same high exit velocities and speed that he showed in his brief 2019 debut. 2021 Projection: 84/25/78/.257/.331/.463/14

87) Max Scherzer WASH, RHP, 36.8 – The signs of decline reared their ugly head towards the end of 2019 after injuring his back (4.81 ERA in final 43 IP), and they continued into 2020 with an elevated walk rate (up 3% to 7.8%) and pedestrian ERA (3.75). The stuff was still great and the strikeouts were at career norms, so even at his advanced age, there is a chance this is less of an extended decline and more of blip on the radar. 2021 Projection: 14/3.30/1.13/246 in 187 IP

88) DJ LeMahieu NYY, 2B, 32.9 – It turns out Yankee Stadium was even more advantageous for LeMahieu than Coors field was as this was the 2nd year in a row that he notched a career high ISO (.226 in 2020). Also decreased K% to a career low 9.7%. 2021 Projection: 96/22/78/.307/.362/.495/6

89) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 30.11 – Monster postseason (234 wRC+ in 13 games) salvaged a disastrous regular season (77 wRC+ in 48 games). He came down with a case of the yips at second base, so some of those struggles could have been mental. The one thing that does look certain is that his days of racking up steals are over as he went 2 for 7 on stolen base attempts. 2021 Projection: 92/23/71/.287/.345/.477/7

90) Giancarlo Stanton NYY, OF, 31.5 – Classic Stanton season. A hamstring injury limited him to only 30 games including the playoffs, but he mashed in those games with 10 dingers. 2021 Projection: 86/38/88/.257/.362/.542/2

91) Lance McCullers Jr. HOU, RHP, 27.7 – Took him a bit to shake the rust off in his return from Tommy John, but he looked excellent when he did with a pitching line of 2.89/1.02/68/15 in final 56 IP including the playoffs. 2021 Projection: 10/3.76/1.26/161 in 145 IP

92) Ramon Laureano OAK, OF, 26.9 – BB% jumped 5.2% to a career high 10.8% and whiff% dropped 3.4% to a career low 25% but it couldn’t prevent Laureano from putting together a mediocre season (.704 OPS). The gains he made in those areas are a good sign, but the drop in sprint speed for the 2nd year in a row (27.9 ft/sec) calls into question his future stolen base totals. 2021 Projection: 89/25/85/.268/.335/.468/10

93) Michael Conforto NYM, OF, 28.1 – Surface stat breakout but it was mostly due to good fortune (.412 BABIP) as most of the underlying numbers remained relatively similar. 2021 Projection: 89/28/91/.270/.370/.490/5

94) Eddie Rosario CLE, OF, 29.6 – Improved the weakest part of his game, upping BB% 4.5% to a now very respectable 8.2%. I can’t think of a single player who gets less hype and less love relative to their production in fantasy than Rosario. Poor defense makes him overrated in real life. 2021 Projection: 86/29/91/.275/.326/.496/7

95) Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT, 3B, 24.2 – Eye opening MLB debut with a .376/.442/.682 triple-slash, 5 homers, 1 steal, and a 21.1%/9.5% K%/BB%. Plus plate approach completely transferred to the majors, and with a 92.8 MPH exit velocity, you don’t have to hit many flyballs (30.8% FB%) to knock a few dingers out. Tack on a 28 ft/sec sprint speed and even this ranking might be too conservative. 2021 Projection: 82/22/76/.276/.343/.466/10

96) MacKenzie Gore SD, LHP, 22.1 – Didn’t stand out at alternate camp, having some issues with his delivery, command, and velocity. Ace upside is still there, but San Diego did not think he was ready. 2021 Projection: 7/3.95/1.32/125 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.40/1.15/221 in 193 IP

97) Jose Abreu CHW, 1B, 34.2 – Abreu was almost singlehandedly the reason why I was overtaken for 1st place in that 18 team league I was talking about in the Wander Franco blurb. I inherited a perennial doormat and turned the team around into a winner overnight, so I can’t be upset at 2nd place, but damn if it didn’t seem like Abreu hit at least one homer a day from about mid August on. 2021 Projection: 82/30/101/.298/.352/.537/1

98) Dansby Swanson ATL, SS, 27.2 – Power continues to improve slowly but surely with a career high .190 ISO. Strikeout rate increased 4.1% to a career high 26.9% and needed a .350 BABIP to buoy his .274 BA. 2021 Projection: 89/23/74/.264/.339/.458/11

99) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 23.2 – Had two big hits in 2020, not in a professional baseball game (there were none of those for minor leaguers), but on social media, going viral twice with an instagram post and TikTok video. As for baseball, the reports from alternate camp did nothing to quell the hype of Rutschman becoming the best catcher in baseball. 2021 Projection: July-27/10/32/.251/.326/.437/1 Prime Projection: 83/27/88/.280/.359/.498/3

100) Luke Voit NYY, 1B, 30.2 – Led the league in homers with 22, and brought K% down to a career low 23.1%. Voit’s done nothing but rake for 3 straight years now. 2021 Projection: 82/31/93/.264/.341/.505/0

101) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 27.3 – Continues to improve power with a 1.8 MPH increase in FB/LD exit velocity to 96.8 MPH, leading to 13 homers in 39 games, while maintaining a not unreasonable 28.9% whiff%. Patience (1.5% BB%), stolen base attempts (1 for 3 on the season), and durability (sprained left foot, left shoulder inflammation, and a concussion) are still major areas of concern. 2021 Projection: 77/27/81/.258/.303/.495/15

102) Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 32.0 – Underwent Tommy John surgery on March 30, 2020. Like Severino, will likely be out until the 2nd half of the season, but it creates a buying opportunity if your team has struggled to find an ace. 2021 Projection: 5/3.67/1.22/103 in 80 IP

103) Nick Castellanos CIN, OF, 29.1 – Traded strikeouts for power, putting up a career best 91 MPH exit velocity and career worst 28.5% K%. Low BABIP (.257) kept his overall numbers slightly down (.784 OPS). 2021 Projection: 89/30/87/.262/.329/.502/2

104) Max Kepler MIN, OF, 28.2 – Continues to produce poor BABIP’s (career .252), making the low batting averages hard to call bad luck even with the excellent contact rates (21.2% whiff%). Increased launch angle every year of his career (21.9 degrees in 2020), so the power isn’t going anywhere. 2021 Projection: 91/30/88/.258/.339/.479/5

105) Kris Bryant CHC, 3B, 29.3 – Constantly banged up with a variety of ailments (sore back, mild left elbow injury, soreness around left ring finger and wrist, and lower oblique tightness), which can partially explain the very down season (.644 OPS). Underlying and surface stats were down across the board, but considering the 34 game sample, weird season, and constant injuries, a bounce back should be in order. 2021 Projection: 91/27/79/.269/.361/.480/4

106) Victor Robles WASH, OF, 23.10 – Gained about 15 pounds of muscle over last off-season and it resulted in a career low 28 ft/sec sprint speed (29.3 in 2019). It didn’t help his power either with his exit velocity dropping to a cover your eyes, career low 82.2 MPH. K% ballooned to 28% as well. Trade value is so low the only thing you can do is hold. 2021 Projection: 81/16/69/.258/.327/.417/20

107) JD Martinez BOS, OF, 33.7 – The strikeout rate was a bit high, walk rate a bit low, and exit velocity a bit down, but none of his underlying numbers were really too far off from his career norms. Age is a factor, so this might might be the start of a decline phase, but it also might be just a down year in a small sample size. 2021 Projection: 88/32/96/.284/361/.530/3

108) Charlie Blackmon COL, OF, 34.9 – Slashed .500/.527/.721 in his first 74 PA and then closed the year out with a .216/283/.327 triple-slash in final 173 PA. Relatively weak .804 OPS could have been due to wearing down after testing positive for Covid in June, or maybe it was due to simply not being given the chance to get hot again in the shortened season. 2021 Projection: 91/27/86/.296/.349/.491/6

109) Paul Goldschmidt STL, 1B, 33.7 – Career best 18.6% K% led to a .304 batting average but it came at the expense of some power (8 homers in 61 games including playoffs). 2021 Projection: 88/28/87/.283/.376/.489/4

110) Dylan Carlson STL, OF, 22.6 – Mediocre pro debut (.616 OPS in 119 PA), but was just starting to heat up toward the end of the season, slashing .295/.377/.614 in final 53 PA including the playoffs. FB/LD exit velocity was very strong at 96.6 MPH and a .260 BABIP is sure to improve. 2021 Projection: 76/22/71/.258/.323/.436/8 Prime Projection: 92/27/86/.273/.341/.482/9

111) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 18.2 – Boy do they grow up fast. Dominguez looks like an absolute tank now, but the swing still looks mighty athletic. The added weight isn’t scaring me away, but it does seem to push the risk/reward up to even more extreme levels on both ends. Maybe I’m a sucker for upside, but a player with elite all category upside is someone I’m willing to risk it all for … and by risk it all, I mean Jose Berrios and players ranked after him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/31/95/.273/.356/.521/17

112) Jose Berrios MIN, RHP, 26.10 – Velocity up on all of his pitches, leading to a career high 27.4% whiff% but also a 3.5% increase in walk rate (9.6%). Overall performance didn’t change all that much (4.00 ERA), but the increase in velocity gives him a nice little boost in upside. 2021 Projection: 13/3.91/1.28/187 in 180 IP

113) Noah Syndergaard NYM, RHP, 28.7 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in late March 2020 and will likely miss half the season. Syndergaard is the last of the discounted Tommy John surgery aces, joining Severino and Sale. 2021 Projection: 4/3.83/1.26/85 in 80 IP

114) Kristian Robinson ARI, OF, 20.4 – Added 25 pounds of muscle from the time OG Spring Training got shut down to his arrival at alternate camp on August 20. Team officials were gushing over the prodigious power and elite athleticism. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 84/30/92/.252/.338/.509/16

115) Jeter Downs BOS, 2B, 22.8 – Here’s your obligatory alternate camp prospect porn of Downs ripping a homer. He likely won’t be breaking any exit velocity or sprint speed records, but he lifts the ball with a good feel to hit and has above average base stealing skills. 2021 Projection: July-44/11/41/.258/.322/.435/7 Prime Projection: 91/26/88/.274/.341/.473/14

116) CJ Abrams SD, SS, 20.6 – Plus hit tool and plus speed shined through in his 2019 pro debut, slashing .401/.442/.662 with 14 steals and a 9% K% in 32 rookie ball games, and now reports from alternate camp have been glowing with positive physical development and added strength. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 94/20/79/.283/.345/.448/28

117) Sixto Sanchez MIA, RHP, 22.8 – Strong MLB debut with a pitching line of 3.46/1.21/33/11 in 39 IP. Exactly as advertised with elite stuff that produces weak contact but doesn’t produce big strikeout numbers. 2021 Projection: 9/3.83/1.24/133 in 146 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.59/1.14/181 in 183 IP

118) Franmil Reyes CLE, OF, 25.9 – Maintained elite exit velocity and raised launch angle 1.7 degrees to 11.2, but whiff rate increased for the 2nd year in a row to a concerning 38.5% 2021 Projection: 76/31/90/.257/.326/.491/0

119) Austin Martin TOR, OF, 22.0 – Selected 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft but signed for the 2nd largest signing bonus. Martin has a quick bat with natural loft, an advanced plate approach and above average speed. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 91/23/80/.276/.347/.449/13

120) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 20.10 – Witt looked good enough at alternate camp that team officials thought he could hold his own in the majors right now. That could put him on the fast track, maybe breaking into the majors as an outfielder. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/26/88/.264/.332/.472/19

121) Gio Urshela NYY, 3B, 29.6 – Underwent surgery to remove a bone chip from his right elbow in December, and is expected to be ready to go for 2021. BB% jumped 5% to 10.3%, K% dropped 3.9% to 14.4%, and exit velocity increased 0.9 MPH to 91.4 MPH. At worst he backed up 2019’s breakout, and at best there could be a monster season coming in 2021. I told you last year in my 2020 Top 1,000 that “these out of nowhere, late career breakout players remain the most underrated assets in dynasty leagues,” and there seems to be one last buying opportunity this off-season. 2021 Projection: 84/26/93/.282/.341/.486/1

122) Kenta Maeda MIN, RHP, 33.0 – Was itching to get back to being a full time starter and he backed it up with a dominate 2019, putting up a pitching line of 2.70/0.75/80/10 in 66.2 IP. He did it with a 6 pitch mix that notched him career highs in K% (32.3%), BB% (4%), exit velocity (85.3 MPH), and launch angle (10.8 degrees). 2021 Projection: 12/3.52/1.13/169 in 162 IP

123) Nick Senzel CIN, OF, 25.8 – Slashed .244/.327/.489 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 10/6 K/BB in 14 games before coming down with Covid. He went 2 for 32 upon his return. Even with the poor finish, the underlying stats look very encouraging, notching a 19.2% K% with a 16.3 degree launch angle, 88.3 MPH exit velocity, and 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed. The ingredients are there for a 2021 breakout, and the price to acquire Senzel couldn’t be cheaper. 2021 Projection: 81/22/76/.265/.329/.448/17

124) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 20.7 – Wowed Diamondback officials at alternate camp, stinging balls all over the field and showing off his lightening fast speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 88/20/80/.272/.341/.453/27

125) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 21.10 – Reports from alternate camp have Lewis hitting for more power while maintaining a good BA as he continues to tweak his hitting mechanics. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/23/82/.273/.332/.452/21

126) Nate Pearson TOR, RHP, 24.7 – Flexor strain in right elbow limited Pearson to 20 IP with a 5.40 ERA, but the stuff was as advertised with a 96.3 MPH fastball and plus slider. 2021 Projection: 8/4.11/1.33/145 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.56/1.20/190 in 178 IP

127) Teoscar Hernandez TOR, OF, 28.6 – Exit velocity exploded from very good to elite levels in 2020, crushing baseballs to the tune of a 93.3 MPH exit velocity and 98.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity en route to 16 homers in 50 games. I’m inclined to call it a career year rather than a breakout, because his K% (30.4%) and BB% (6.8%) did not improve along with the exit velocity, and a .261/.311/.463 triple-slash in his final 18 games was more in line with his career norms. 2021 Projection: 76/28/84/.251/.318/.496/8

128) Lance Lynn CHW, RHP, 33.11 – Had a 1.93 ERA until the month of September where he got hit up for a 5.51 ERA, including a 9 ER disaster in the last start of the season. Dominates with 3 different fastballs (4-seam, cutter, sinker) while mixing in a curve and the occasional change. 2021 Projection: 13/3.70/1.25/184 in 178 IP

129) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 30.10 – Strikeout rate tanked 5.2% to 18.4% due to a 26.6% whiff% decrease on the curve and 7.1% whiff% decrease on the fastball. It didn’t impact his ERA or WHIP at all (2.92/1.17) and most of the damage came in the first 4 starts of the season (41 K’s in 45 IP in final 7 starts). 2021 Projection: 11/3.70/1.24/174 in 180 IP

130) Patrick Corbin WASH, LHP, 31.8 – Velocity dropped over 1.5 MPH on all of his pitches and it resulted in Corbin getting hit harder (90.7 MPH exit velocity against) and striking out fewer batters (20.3% K%). 2021 Projection: 12/3.85/1.25/180 in 181 IP

131) Carlos Carrasco NYM, RHP, 34.0 – Beat Leukemia in 2019 and he barely skipped a beat as he was back to his normal self in 2020 with a pitching line of 2.91/1.21/82/27 in 68 IP. The only thing out of line was a huge jump in BB%, increasing 4.9% to 9.6%. 2021 Projection: 10/3.78/1.22/181 in 163 IP

132) Joey Gallo TEX, OF, 27.4 – As predicted by pretty much everyone Gallo wasn’t1 able to maintain 2019’s .253 BA (.181 in 2020). Exit velocity was very strong (91.2 MPH), but it wasn’t in the land of the elite like it had been over the last 3 years. Obviously gets a huge bump in anything but standard 5×5. 2021 Projection: 89/38/91/.212/.331/.510/4

133) Ian Happ CHC, OF, 26.8 – 35.7% whiff% is in the danger zone territory, but Happ took his power to another level with a 91.1 MPH exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 86/27/84/.250/.343/.482/6

134) Frankie Montas OAK, RHP, 28.0 – Dominated in first 23 IP (1.57 ERA) until an upper back injury popped up and tanked his season, putting up a 8.70 ERA in final 30 IP. Excellent bounce back candidate with a clean bill of health heading into 2021. 2021 Projection: 10/3.89/1.28/168 in 160 IP

135) Chris Paddack SD, RHP, 25.3 – ERA ballooned to 5.02 due to lack of fastball command (fastball spin also took a step back) and inability to develop a viable third pitch. One or both will have to improve in order to remain in the rotation and hold off San Diego’s horde of talented pitching prospects. 2021 Projection: 8/4.12/1.21/151 in 145 IP

136) Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 23.8 – Durability concerns over extremely slight frame are warranted as McKenzie’s velocity was in a steady decline in his first 6 starts before being moved to the pen in his final two appearances. What can’t be questioned is the productivity as he put up the same dominant stats, both surface and underlying, in the Majors that he did in the minors. The upside is too high to pass up, and I’m betting on nature doing it’s thing and slowing down that metabolism as he ages. 2021 Projection: 7/3.90/1.24/128 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.51/1.16/195 in 178 IP

137) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 27.4 – Vastly improved BB%, dropping it from 13.4% to 5.6% en route to a breakout season (3.57 ERA). Groundball pitcher with a negative launch angle against (-0.7 degrees), but gets hit hard with a 91.7 MPH exit velocity against. Throws the third most valuable curveball in the game behind only German Marquez and Shane Bieber. 2021 Projection: 10/3.75/1.28/169 in 165 IP

138) Joe Musgrove SD, RHP, 28.4 – Right triceps inflammation limited Musgrove to 39.2 IP. Strikeouts (11.2% increase to 33.1%) and whiffs (8.3% increase to 33%) exploded on the back of his slider (11.3% whiff% increase to 50.6%) and curveball (13.6% whiff% increase to 53.2%). Slider spin rate was up 183 revolutions to 2677 and curveball spin rate was up 137 revolutions to to 2712, further backing up the strikeout gains. The K’s came with at the expense of some control with his BB% increasing 4.2% to a career worst 9.6%. 2021 Projection: 10/3.68/1.25/168 in 155 IP

139) Luis Patino TB, RHP, 21.5 – Poor MLB debut with a pitching line of 5.19/1.85/21/14 in 17.1 IP. The stuff was as advertised with 96.7 MPH heat, a changeup that put up a .211 xwOBA, and a slider with a 47.8% whiff%, but the poor debut likely puts him on the outside looking in for a 2021 rotation spot. 2021 Projection: 3/4.19/1.34/94 in 89 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.58/1.20/191 in 175 IP

140) Kyle Lewis SEA, OF, 25.9 – Started the season on fire, slashing .373/.440/.567 with 4 homers and a 22/8 K/BB in first 75 PA, and then closed the season on ice, slashing .139/.258/.266 with 3 homers and a 34/13 K/BB in final 93 PA. Increase in sprint speed to 27.9 ft/sec is a good sign the major knee injury is behind him. 2021 Projection: 86/25/79/.244/.328/.452/9

141) Rhys Hoskins PHI, 1B, 28.0 – Underwent internal brace repair surgery on the UCL in his left elbow in early October with a 4-6 month timetable. Hoskins continues to be an extreme fly ball hitter (51.9%) with extreme patience (15.7% BB%). 2021 Projection: 87/30/84/.241/.376/.498/3

142) Marcus Semien TOR, SS, 30.6 – Regressed right back to pre 2019 breakout levels with strikeout rate rising 7.5% to 21.2% and ISO declining from .237 to .157. Picked it up in 7 playoff games (219 wRC+), so while it looks like 2019 was a career year, maybe some of the gains were real if given a full season. 2021 Projection: 88/24/70/.260/.341/.453/11

143) Anthony Rizzo CHC, 1B, 31.8 – Low BABIP (.218), career worst exit velocity (87.7 MPH), and career worst sprint speed (24.8 ft/sec) is responsible for the down season (.755 OPS). Maybe his chronic bad back is starting to take a toll, but FB/LD exit velocity and K/BB were still strong, so I’m leaning towards it being a down year rather than the start of a true decline. 2021 Projection: 86/26/89/.273/.374/.496/5

144) Josh Bell PIT, 1B, 28.8 – An out of character 26.5% K% was the driving force for Bell’s down year, but he was starting to come out of it in the 2nd half, slashing .270/.360/.446 with 4 homers and a 18/11 K/BB in 24 games. Bell blamed the down year on the fact watching in-game video was banned in 2020, which he leaned on heavily in 2019, so the strong finish is a good sign he was starting to get used to a new routine. 2020 Projection: 78/25/85/.265/.353/.474/1

145) Max Muncy LAD, 1B/3B, 30.7 – .203 BABIP and 44.1% GB% (37.8% in 2019) is responsible for the .192 BA. Everything is else was mostly in line with career norms. 2021 Projection: 91/30/86/.240/.362/.501/3

146) Jorge Soler KC, OF, 29.1 – Oblique strain ended Soler’s season in early September. Maintained exit velocity gains made in 2019 putting him in near elite territory, but strikeout rate exploded 8.3% to career worst 34.5%. 2021 Projection: 79/32/94/.247/.337/.503/2

147) Jazz Chisholm MIA, SS, 23.2 – Struggled in his 62 PA MLB Debut (.161/.242/.321) but there were some positive signs in the underlying stats, most notably a reasonable 25.7% whiff%. He continued to hit the ball in the air (15.6 degree launch angle), and while exit velocity was below average (87.1 MPH), that will inevitably go up as he averaged a 91.4 MPH exit velocity in 2019 at Double-A. 2021 Projection: May-61/19/56/.236/.307/.418/9 Prime Projection: 83/27/81/.257/.338/.473/12

148) Dylan Bundy LAA, RHP, 28.4 – The breakout that everyone and their 2nd cousin twice removed saw coming, Bundy put up a pitching line of 3.29/1.04/72/17 in 65.2 IP. Exit velocity against dropped to a career best 87 MPH, but 4-seamer velocity is on a 4 year decline to a now career low 90 MPH. 2021 Projection: 11/3.82/1.24/175 in 167 IP

149) Dylan Moore SEA, OF, 28.8 – Power is legit with a 90.4 MPH exit velocity, 95 MPH FB/LD exit velo, and a 17.3 degree launch angle, which he pairs with a not too bad 27.2% Whiff%. I’m concerned the stolen bases will dry up a bit considering a poor 61% career success rate and a falling sprint speed (down 0.7 ft/sec to 27.7). 2021 Projection: 80/24/77/.241/.323/.447/17

150) Hyun Jin Ryu TOR, LHP, 34.0 – Ballpark downgrade? No problem. NL West to AL (Covid adjusted) East? No problem. Ryu kept rolling with a pitching line of 2.69/1.15/72/17 in 67 IP. The only problem he did have was in his one playoff start where Tampa hit him up for 7 earned in 1.2 IP. 2021 Projection: 12/3.48/1.18/163 in 168 IP

151) Kevin Gausman SF, RHP, 30.3 – Breakout season with a pitching line of 3.62/1.11/79/16 in 59.2 IP. Velocity on 4-seamer bumped up 1.2 MPH to 95.1 MPH, and slings the most valuable splitter in baseball by far, putting up a .150 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 12/3.78/1.25/181 in 168 IP

152) Tyler Mahle CIN, RHP, 26.6 – Breakout year with a pitching line of 3.59/1.15/60/21 in 47.2 IP. K% skyrocketed 6.7% to 29.9%, and it’s backed up by a 10.4% increase in whiff% and spin rate increases of about 200-300 revolutions on his most used pitches (4-seam, slider, splitter). 2021 Projection: 10/3.92/1.29/162 in 152 IP

153) Aaron Civale CLE, RHP, 25.10 – Continued to post well below average exit velocities against (87.1 MPH average and 90.7 MPH FB/LD) while improving his whiff% (up 3.7% to 25%) and BB% (down 2.9% to 5.1%). 2021 Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/157 in 166 IP

154) Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 23.5 – First player to make his Major League debut as a starter in a playoff game, going 1 for 4. Kirilloff is a natural hitter who is poised to hit for both and power and average on the next level, and with Rosario non-tendered, he could get that shot starting from Opening Day. 2021 Projection: 72/20/77/.268/.327/.435/5 Prime Projection: 85/25/93/.280/.343/.477/7

155) Drew Waters ATL, OF, 22.3 – Concerns over free swinging ways has Waters dropping down many lists, but he is an excellent athlete with fantasy friendly upside and has been pushed aggressively in his pro career. He has plus bat control and hits the ball very hard. I’m still in. 2021 Projection: July-38/9/31/.259/.309/.411/8 Prime Projection: 84/23/78/.271/.328/.448/15

156) Miguel Sano MIN, 1B, 27.11 – Strikeout rate actually managed to get worse, posting a career worst 43.9% K% leading to a .204 BA, and you can’t blame some of that on poor BABIP luck (.301). 2021 Projection: 86/36/88/.225/.315/.497/0

157) Leody Taveras TEX, OF, 22.7 – The triple-slash (.227/.308/.395) wasn’t very impressive, but there were some very encouraging takeaways in his 33 game MLB debut. He was a perfect 8 for 8 on the bases with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. 10.4% BB%, 88.9 MPH exit velocity and 14.3 degree launch angle are all very strong marks. 32.1% K% is high and 91.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity could use some improvement, but overall there is a lot to be excited about. 2021 Projection: 75/14/58/.243/.311/.401/22 Prime Projection: 82/20/62/.258/.330/.432/25

158) Josh Hader MIL, Closer, 28.0 – Velocity down 1 MPH on the fastball (94.5 MPH) and 1.6 MPH on the slider (80.3) MPH). BB% hit a career worst 12.8%. It all led to a slightly down year with a 3.79 ERA. 2021 Projection: 3/3.22/0.99/105/33 in 68 IP

159) Wil Myers SD, OF, 30.4 – Career year with a .288/.353/.606 triple-slash and 15 homers in 55 games. Strikeout rate bounced back to 25.7% after ballooning to 34.3% in 2019. Only negative was the lack of stolen bases with a mere 3 attempts and career worst 4.41 HP to 1B runtime. 2021 Projection: 81/26/78/.250/.332/.457/10

160) Kyle Schwarber WASH, OF, 28.9 – .219 BABIP is the main culprit for the .188 BA. Exit velocity and launch angle dropped a bit, but considering the shortened season and otherwise strong power and patience numbers, he’s the same low average slugger that he always was. 2021 Projection: 84/32/83/.242/.339/.498/3

161) Will Smith LAD, C, 26.0 – Incredible improvements in K% (down 10.4% to 16.1%) and BB% (up 5.4% to 14.6%), and not only did it not cost him anything in FB/LD exit velocity, but he improved that too with a 2.4 MPH increase to 94.5 MPH. It only came in 37 games due to a time share with Austin Barnes, and he couldn’t maintain those numbers in 18 playoff games (65 wRC+). 2021 Projections: 65/24/69/.263/.348/.498/2

162) Sean Murphy OAK, C, 26.6 – Exit velocity moved into elite territory with a 1.5 MPH increase to 92.2 MPH. Whiff% dropped 4.8% to 25%, BB% mushroomed 7.1% to 17.1%, and launch angle jumped 7.4 degrees to 14.7 degrees. OPS dropped from .899 to .821, but the underlying numbers are telling a different story. A big breakout could be incoming. 2021 Projection: 76/25/73/.253/.340/.482/1

163) Jesse Winker CIN, OF, 27.7 – The long awaited power outbreak finally materialized with 12 homers in 55 games on the back of a 3 MPH increase in exit velocity (92.1 MPH) and 2.5 MPH increase in FB/LD exit velocity (96 MPH). It came with an 11% increase in whiff% (29%), but the walk rate rose with it to 15.3%. 2021 Projection: 84/25/78/.268/.362/.479/1

164) Alex Verdugo BOS, OF, 24.11 – Strikeout rate jumped 7.4% to 20.4%, but a .371 BABIP kept his BA high (.308). 2.4 MPH drop in exit velocity (87 MPH) is the most concerning thing, because with a 5.9 degree launch angle, he needs to hit the ball very hard to do any real damage on a consistent basis. 2021 Projection: 85/20/71/.276/.335/.450/10

165) Mike Soroka ATL, RHP, 23.8 – Torn right Achilles tendon which required surgery ended Soroka’s season after just 13.2 IP. There is no timetable, but he is expected to be throwing by the time Spring Training starts. 2021 Projection: 9/3.81/1.24/133 in 154 IP

166) Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 26.11 – 4-seeamer velocity jumped 1.5 MPH to 95.1 MPH and upped the whiff% on all of his pitches by a few percentage points en route to an excellent season (2.31/0.84/46/7 in 46.2 IP). If he was guaranteed a rotation spot, he would rank at least 20 spots higher. 2021 Projection: 7/3.76/1.23/120 in 120 IP

167) Tommy Edman STL, 3B/OF/SS, 25.11 – Couldn’t repeat his 2019 breakout with most of the underlying numbers coming in at slightly worse levels in 2020. Nothing was completely out of character, other than raising his BB% 2.4% to 7%, so I’m expecting a bit of a rebound in 2021. 2021 Projection: 79/14/71/.276/.332/.418/16

168) Andres Gimenez CLE, SS, 22.7 – Solid MLB debut, slashing .263/.333/.398 with 3 homers, 8 steals, and a 21.2%/5.3% K%/BB% in 132 PA. Speed is legit with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed, but power is questionable with a 86.8/89.9 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 75/12/55/.259/.324/.391/22 Prime Projection: 86/15/59/.274/.338/.417/24

169) Dominic Smith NYM, 1B/OF, 25.10 – Power broke out with 10 homers in 50 games on the back of a 3.1 MPH increase in FB/LD exit velocity. Playing time could still be tight, but if he keeps mashing, NY will have no choice but to play him everyday. 2021 Projection: 76/24/84/.266/.330/.471/1

170) Kyle Hendricks CHC, RHP, 31.4 – Hendrick’s pinpoint control somehow managed to actually get better with a league leading mark of 0.9 BB/9. He doesn’t strike many out (7.1 K/9) but his exit velocity against is consistently among the best in the league (86.2 MPH). 2021 Projection: 13/3.62/1.18/148 in 175 IP

171) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 21.3 – Got rave reviews at alt camp with his mature approach and murdering of baseballs. Rumor has it that Casas was drilled by a Tanner Houck pitch, refused to take first base, and then smashed a homer off him … Stuff of legend … but also makes you wonder what kind of baseball was being played at these alt sites. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/30/92/.263/.345/.505/3

172) Tommy Pham SD, OF, 33.1 -Got stabbed in the lower back at a strip club parking club in October and required emergency surgery to close the wound. He’s suing the strip club for “catastrophic injuries,” but it’s unclear how much the injury will effect him long term. A fractured hamate bone limited him to 31 games in 2020. Surface stats were mediocre (.624 OPS), but the underlying numbers looked much better and were in line with career norms. 2021 Projection: 80/20/71/.264/.358/.446/15

173) Eduardo Rodriguez BOS, LHP, 28.0 – Missed all of 2020 after testing positive for Covid in early July which eventually caused myocarditis (inflammation of the heart). The expectation is for him to have a normal off-season and be a full go for 2021. 2021 Projection: 11/3.89/1.29/166 in 160 IP

174) Cristian Javier HOU, RHP, 24.0 – Strong MLB debut, putting up a pitching line of 3.48/0.99/54/18 in 54.1 IP. Induced weak contact with a 86.9 MPH exit velocity against, which was mostly due a 75.9 MPH exit velo against on his slider (.146 xwOBA). 2021 Projection: 9/3.90/1.27/153 in 145 IP

175) Mike Yastrzemski SF, OF, 30.7 – At worst he proved the 2019 breakout was no fluke, and at best he took his game to an even higher level. BB% skyrocketed 5.5% to 13.3% and K% dropped 1.6% to 24.4%. Continued to hit for power with 10 homers and a 18.4 degree launch angle in 54 games. 2021 Projection: 85/25/79/.262/.340/.481/6

176) Paul DeJong STL, SS, 27.8 – Got caught up in the Cardinals Covid outbreak, testing positive in early August. Hit only 3 homers in 45 games, but with a 21.7 degree launch angle and 93.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity some of that can be attributed to bad luck, further evidenced by an out of character 6.4% FB/LD%. Whiff% rose 8.1% to a career worst 32.3% and sprint speed dropped to a career low 26.5 ft/sec, but considering the Covid and all the doubleheaders the Cardinals had to play, I’m not giving it too much stock . 2021 Projection: 82/26/84/.244/.320/.456/5

177) Gary Sanchez NYY, C, 28.4 – Poor defense could move him off catcher in the near future. Continues to display elite exit velocity (99 MPH FB/LD), but the contact issues are getting worse with a career high 36% K%. BABIP was hilariously low (.159) and whiff% didn’t increase nearly as much (1.7% jump to 34%), so I do believe a bounce back is in order. 2021 Projection: 67/30/81/.226/.315/.507/0

178) Nate Lowe TEX, 1B, 25.9 – Just when you thought the real life value of blocked corner only power bats were at an all time low, Tampa pulls a rabbit out of their hat landing a premium prospect haul for Lowe. Every other team manages to find these guys for little or nothing. Dynasty value is a different story with Lowe now ticketed for a full time job. His power and patience have translated to the majors with 11 homers and a 9% BB% in 245 career MLB PA, but the hit tool hasn’t with a 31.8% K%. 2021 Projection: 78/25/81/.256/.341/.464/1

179) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 21.5 – Reports from alternate camp were that it took Davis some time to make adjustments to upper level pitching and their ability to locate secondary pitches. The power and athleticism are evident, so continuing to mature at the dish will be necessary to reach his considerable ceiling. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/26/89/.262/.337/.470/13

180) Brandon Marsh LAA, OF, 23.4 – Groundball hitter with a plus power/speed combo and plus plate approach. Built off his 2nd half breakout in 2019 by dominating at alternate camp “in every capacity.” 2021 Projection: July-34/9/30/.251/.327/.432/7 Prime Projection: 86/23/78/.272/.348/.459/16

181) Tarik Skubal DET, LHP, 24.4 – The long ball was Skubal’s downfall with a 21 degree launch angle and 95.4 MPH FB/LD exit velocity against which led to 9 homers in 32 IP. 37/11 K/BB was strong, and his stuff was as advertised with a 94.4 MPH fastball that he threw 58.9% of the time. 2021 Projection: 7/4.11/1.30/150 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.77/1.23/196 in 179 IP

182) Jonathan Villar NYM, 2B/SS, 29.11 – Expected to fill a super utility role with New York. Career low exit velocity (2.2 MPH drop to 86.7 MPH) led to a .232/.301/.292 triple-slash. Sprint speed also hit a career low (27.1 ft/sec), but it didn’t effect his stolen base totals much as he stole 16 bags in 52 games. 2021 Projection: 69/13/61/.254/.326/.408/26

183) Jared Walsh LAA, 1B, 27.8 – Was smoking hot to close the season in September, slashing .337/.368/.744 with 9 homers and a 13/5 K/BB in 95 PA. Posted a 13.9% K% on the season, but his 22.8% whiff% shows that likely isn’t sustainable, although it is still a big improvement on the 32.4% whiff% he put up in 2019. Exit velocity numbers were good, but not off the charts with an 88.1 MPH average and 93.6 MPH on FB/LD. 2021 Projection: 69/25/81/.262/.326/.473/1

184) Trey Mancini BAL, 1B/OF, 29.0 – Mancini says he is back to his normal self after having a malignant tumor removed in his colon and completing chemotherapy in September. His normal self was pretty damn good at baseball in 2019 with an improved plate approach and GB% that led to a .291/.364/.535 triple-slash and 35 homers. 2021 Projection: 81/26/77/.270/.341/.473/1

185) Vidal Brujan TB, 2B, 23.2 – No clear path to playing time in Tampa’s perpetual logjam, but these things usually work themselves out with trades, injuries and/or underperformance. 80 grade speed and the willingness to use it gives Brujan the potential to compete for the stolen base crown year after year. 2021 Projection: 32/4/26/.264/.328/.382/9 Prime Projection: 87/13/51/.281/.340/.418/37

186) Aaron Bracho CLE, SS, 19.11 – As one of the youngest players at Cleveland’s alternate camp, team officials came away impressed by Bracho’s maturity and ability to hold his own against more advanced pitching. He became one of my favorite prospects last off-season after showing a great feel to hit (15.3% K%), an advanced plate approach (16.8% BB%) and plus power potential (6 homers and a 51.8% FB% in 30 games). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 87/26/88/.274/.351/.481/9

187) Noelvi Marte SEA, OF, 19.6 – Struggled early at alternate camp, which was to be expected considering he has never even played stateside in the minors, but was impressing by the end of it by cutting down on strikeouts and stinging the ball much harder. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 84/25/82/.263/.334/.473/15

188) Riley Greene DET, OF, 20.6 – After ripping up OG MLB Spring Training (.417/.611/.917), he then went on to continue turning heads at alt camp and instructs. Greene is an all around hitter who did everything he could do to impress in 2020. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 84/25/89/.276/.348/.483/9

189) Matt Manning DET, RHP, 23.3 – Shut down in late August with a slight forearm strain but is said to be 100% now. Manning’s a strikeout machine who made strides with control and command in 2019. 2021 Projection: 5/4.18/1.34/126 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.69/1.23/206 in 183 IP

190) Mike Clevinger SD, RHP, 30.3 – San Diego dropped the old “do you want the good news or the bad news first?” on us in November when they tweeted out, “The Padres have signed RHP Mike Clevinger to a two-year contract through the 2022 season … Clevinger will also undergo Tommy John surgery on Tuesday.” 2021 Projection: OUT

191) Jeff McNeil NYM, OF/2B, 29.0 – Gave back all of the power gains he made in 2019 with exit velocity dropping 2.4 MPH to 86.6 MPH. Continues to make contact at elite rates (11.5% K%). 2021 Projection: 83/18/75/.302/.375/.467/6

192) Edwin Diaz NYM, Closer, 27.0 – Got back to dominating after a disappointing 2019 with a 1.75 ERA, 17.53 K/9, and 97.8 MPH heat. BB% spiked to a career worst 12.7%, so it wasn’t all roses. 2021 Projection: 4/3.21/1.16/101/30 in 65 IP

193) Nick Solak TEX, 2B/OF, 26.2 – Above average contact rates (19.1% Whiff%), above average exit velocity (89.9 MPH) and above average sprint speed (28.6 ft/sec) is a very nice foundation of skills to work with. It didn’t result in a great 2020 (77 wRC+), but it portends good things for the future. 2021 Projection: 80/18/72/.274/.336/.437/14

194) Clint Frazier NYY, OF, 26.7 – BB% mushroomed 9.1% to 15.6% and continued to hit for power with 8 homers and a career high 89.4 MPH exit velocity in 39 games. Defense improved in 2020 which he will have to keep up if he wants to lock down long term playing time. 2021 Projection: 75/25/83/.253/.339/.482/7

195) Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF, 26.9 – Rib cage strain ended Benintendi’s season after a terrible 14 games (.442 OPS). Sample is too small to read into, but if you did read into it, it wouldn’t be a good read. 2021 Projection: 82/17/76/.267/.338/.428/8

196) Brendan Rodgers COL, SS/2B, 23.7 – Right shoulder capsule strain ended Rodgers season in late August, which is the same shoulder that required labrum surgery in July 2019. He is expected to be a full go by Spring Training, and with Arenado traded, his outlook for playing time just got a whole lot better. 2021 Projection: 73/22/71/.250/.316/.442/6 Prime Projection: 81/27/88/.272/.331/.473/7

197) Salvador Perez KC, C, 30.11 – Came back from March 2019 Tommy John surgery in style, slashing .333/.353/.633 with 11 homers in 37 games. .375 BABIP definitely juiced up that line, and he notched slight career worsts in K% (23.1%) and BB% (1.9%), but the overall takeaway is that he is back to his normal self. 2021 Projection: 59/27/79/.258/.297/.463/1

198) Dustin May LAD, RHP, 23.7 – Stuff got even nastier with a major uptick in velocity on all of his pitches except the changeup, but it didn’t help his strikeout rate as it dropped to 19.6%. Bauer signing moves him out of the rotation. 2021 Projection: 5/3.87/1.22/79 in 95 IP

199) Randal Grichuk TOR, OF, 29.8 – Notched a career best 21.2% K% while fully maintaining all of his power (12 homers and a 95.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity). 2021 Projection: 66/26/73/.251/.304/.480/2

200) Marcus Stroman NYM, RHP, 29.11 – Opted out of the 2020 season. Stroman’s a groundball pitcher with a six pitch mix, relying mainly on his 92.5 MPH sinker. Slider is his best swing and miss pitch (35.3% whiff%). 2021 Projection: 11/3.81/1.28/162 in 173 IP

201) Adrian Morejon SD, LHP, 22.1 – The 4.66 ERA in 19.1 IP wasn’t great, but everything else was with a 31.6% K%, 5.1% BB%, 86.7 exit velocity against, 46% GB%, and 96.6 MPH heat. Splitter and slider put a 57.1% K% and 47.6% K%, respectively. 2021 Projection: 6/4.04/1.27/104 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.69/1.20/184 in 171 IP

202) David Dahl TEX, OF, 27.0 – Can’t shake the injury bug. A lower back injury and a shoulder strain which required surgery in late September limited Dahl to 24 unimpressive games (.470 OPS). I know it’s getting frustrating, but many real life teams have made the mistake of giving up too early on talented players still in the prime of their career. Don’t make the same mistake. 2021 Projection: 79/20/77/.264/.319/.467/8

203) Cristian Pache ATL, OF, 22.5 – Wasn’t able to do very much damage in 29 PA including the playoffs (.192 BA), but a 21% K% and 10% BB% shows he wasn’t completely overmatched. Plus CF defense will keep him on the field, but you might have to wait a few years for Pache to become an impact player on the offensive side. 2021 Projection: 73/14/65/.253/.311/.394/11 Prime Projection: 86/21/79/.273/.338/.451/17

204) Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 19.7 – Did nothing but mash homers in instructional league play and at the alternative camp site. He did the same in 2019 in stateside rookie ball as a 17-year-old. He swings a quick bat, makes good contact, has an advanced plate approach for his age, and plus power potential. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/29/95/.273/.347/.503/4

205) Daniel Lynch KC, LHP, 24.4 – Focused on refining his delivery and found a new and improved changeup grip at alternate camp. Refining those two aspects of his game gives him the chance to turn into a true ace with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider already in tow. 2021 Projection: 4/4.18/1.32/91 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.61/1.21/187 in 175 IP

206) Zac Veen COL, OF, 19.4 – Selected 9th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the 6’4”, 190 pound Veen has a lightening quick lefty swing with natural loft. His patient plate approach, good feel to hit, and at least plus power potential gives him the ingredients to turn into a heart of the order beast. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/28/93/.270/.342/.494/10

207) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 24.0 – Whiff% dropped 8.6% to 30.1%, BB% increased 2.4% to 7.8% and exit velocity increased 1.6 MPH to 91 MPH. On the other hand, launch angle fell 7 degrees to 13.6 and he was a disaster in 49 postseason AB (28 wRC+). 2021 Projection: 69/25/81/.252/.321/.473/1

208) Josh Donaldson MIN, 3B, 35.4 – Injury bug popped back up as a strained right calf limited Donaldson to 28 games. He looked like himself in those games, but this is the 3rd time in 4 years he’s had to miss significant time with injury. 2021 Projection: 88/31/84/.248/.359/.502/2

209) Nelson Cruz MIN, DH, 40.9 – The ageless wonder. Dominated again with a .303 BA and 16 homers in 53 games. His exit velocity did reach a career low 91.6 MPH, down 2.1 MPH from 2019, and whiff% hit a career high 34.2%, so maybe those are the first signs of decline. 2021 Projection: 82/35/96/.264/.357/.532/1

210) Zack Greinke HOU, RHP, 37.5 – Velocity tanked 2 MPH on the 4-seamer to 87.9 MPH and ERA jumped up to 4.03. The underlying numbers were in line with career norms, and a 3.51 xFIP/3.70 xERA shows he can still be effective even at that reduced velocity. 2021 Projection: 13/3.78/1.18/175 in 183 IP

211) Charlie Morton ATL, RHP, 37.6 – Right shoulder inflammation limited Morton to a mediocre 38 IP (4.74 ERA). Velocity dropped for the 2nd year in a row to 93.4 MPH. Pitched much better during the playoffs with a 2.70 ERA and increased velocity, so while age related decline is a major issue, the skills are still in there. 2021 Projection: 11/3.69/1.22/188 in 165 IP

212) Andrew Heaney LAA, LHP, 29.10 – Provides strong strikeout numbers, and while he hasn’t had that breakout season yet, he’s underperformed his underlying numbers for the past 3 seasons. With a little luck, 2021 could be the year. 2021 Projection: 10/3.96/1.27/173 in 166 IP

213) Pablo Lopez MIA, RHP, 25.1 – K% increased 4.3% to 24.6% and exit velocity against was among the best in the league at a career best 85.7 MPH. Added a cutter to the arsenal, and while he didn’t use it often (8.4%), it immediately turned into his most effective pitch with a .169 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 10/3.93/1.26/148 in 159 IP

214) Liam Hendricks CHW, Closer, 32.2 – Proved the 2019 breakout was legit, posting an identical 13.1 K/9 with a 96 MPH and two secondaries (slider and curve) that are untouchable. 2021 Projection: 4/2.78/0.98/96/36 in 71 IP

215) Jake Cronenworth SD, SS/2B/1B, 27.2 – Power is the only thing in question with a 91.5 MPH FB/LD exit velocity and only 4 homers in 54 games, but the strong average exit velocity (89.8 MPH) and decent launch angle (10.5 degrees) shows there could be more in the tank. What’s not in question is his plus hitting ability (16.7% Whiff%), plate approach (9.4% BB%) and speed (28.7 ft/sec spring speed). 2021 Projection: 81/16/70/.275/.343/.421/14

216) Jorge Polanco MIN, SS, 27.9 – Gave back most of the power gains he made in 2019 with a 1.5 MPH decrease in exit velocity to 86.6 MPH. 2021 Projection: 84/16/70/.282/.338/.443/7

217) Michael Brantley HOU, OF, 32.11 – Whiff% jumped 5.8% to a career worst 16.4%, which took him from the 99th percentile to the 93rd percentile, so still pretty damn good. Attempted only 2 steals in 46 games, so hopes for a stolen base rebound seem slim. 2021 Projection: 83/20/86/.286/.349/.465/6

218) Mike Moustakas CIN, 2B/1B, 32.6 – Improved walk rate for the 2nd year in a row to a now very strong 11%. 2021 Projection: 78/32/87/.243/.327/.490/3

219) JD Davis NYM, 3B, 27.11 – Launch angle dropped 7.3 degrees to a meager 3.3, and with it went his power with only 6 homers in 56 games. He still hit the ball very hard (90.1 MPH), and he upped his walk rate 5.1% to 13.5%, so the ingredients for a breakout are there if he can get the launch angle back up. 2021 Projection: 79/21/75/.263/.342/.459/2

220) JJ Bleday MIA, OF, 23.5 – Reports from alternate camp and instructs praised Bleday for showing up in excellent shape, dropping 15 pounds without losing any power. He was a better athlete, had more speed, and was better in the outfield. He also continued to display his all around hitting ability. 2021 Projection: July-32/9/36/.252/.322/.441/2 Prime Projection: 82/26/88/.268/.340/.471/6

221) Trevor Larnach MIN, OF, 24.1 – Showed off his at least plus raw power at alternate camp, although he has yet to fully tap into it in the minors with high groundball rates and modest power numbers (13 homers in 127 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2019). If you hit the ball hard enough, and Larnach certainly hits is hard, you don’t need an extreme launch angle to put up big time power numbers. 2021 Projection: August-13/5/16/.242/.320/.436/1 Prime Projection: 77/26/87/.263/.341/.481/5

222) Casey Mize DET, RHP, 23.11 – Got rocked in his MLB debut with a pitching line of 6.99/1.48/26/13 in 28.1 IP. Throws a 5 pitch mix in which his 4-seamer was his only effective pitch. 2021 Projection: 6/4.33/1.35/135 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.73/1.20/184 in 182 IP

223) Yasmani Grandal CHW, C, 32.5 – Strikeout rate rose to a career high 29.9%, but it was in a 46 game sample and isn’t so far out of line with the rest of his career. Power and patience remained strong. 2021 Projection: 74/25/73/.238/.359/.457/2

224) Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/3B, 25.5 – At 5’9”, 167 pounds, Kim has been one of the best players in the KBO since he was 19 years old. He took his game to the next level in 2020, slashing .306/.397/.523 with 30 homers, 23 steals, and a 68/75 K/BB in 138 games. He has a relatively safe floor with the ability to contribute in every category, and there is some nice upside too if the stats can translate better than expected. 2021 Projection: 79/19/71/.271/.337/.440/13

225) Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B/SS, 21.10 – Selected 7th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the 5’10”, 190 pound Gonzales put up insane numbers in an extreme hitter’s environment at New Mexico State, rocking 12 homers with a .448 BA and 10/21 K/BB in 16 games before the season got shutdown. He performed well in the wood bat Cape League too with 7 homers, a .351 BA and a 22/20 K/BB in 42 games. He has one of the best hit tools in the draft and while he isn’t projected for huge homer or steal totals, he should be an all category stat stuffer. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/21/74/.281/.348/.456/9

226) Asa Lacy KC, LHP, 21.10 – Selected 4th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Lacy is a 6’4” lefty with a nasty mid 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. His only 4 starts in 2020 were absolutely dominant with a 0.75 ERA and 46/8 K/BB in 24 IP. Walk rates were high in college with a 4.0 BB/9 in 152 IP, but his control/command is better than that number indicates. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/209 in 183 IP

227) Forrest Whitley HOU, RHP, 23.6 – Was shut down from throwing in early August after feeling arm discomfort during summer camp and again at alternate camp. He battled shoulder inflammation in 2019. This is the life of a pitching prospect. 2021 Projection: 4/4.31/1.37/105 in 98 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.77/1.26/181 in 160 IP

228) Drew Smyly ATL, LHP, 31.10 – A left index finger strain limited Smyly to 26.1 IP. Velocity and spin rate spiked on all of his pitches and it resulted in a career high 34.7% whiff% and a 3.42 ERA. 2021 Projection: 10/3.81/1.23/168 in 150 IP

229) Rowdy Tellez TOR, 1B, 26.0 – Brought K% down 12.7% to 15.7% while maintaining strong power numbers (8 homers and a 95.9 MPH FB/LD exit velo in 35 games). The strikeout numbers should pull back a bit with a 23.5% whiff%, but he put up good contact numbers in the minors too, so the breakout looks mostly real to me. 2021 Projection: 63/20/68/.263/.331/.482/1

230) Carter Kieboom WASH, 3B, 23.7 – Struggled for the 2nd year in a row, except the encouraging 90.9 MPH exit velocity in 2019 dropped to a discouraging 85.1 MPH in 2020. He’s logged only 165 MLB PA, so we’re a long way off from putting the bust label on him. 2021 Projection: 71/19/74/.257/.322/.439/3 Prime Projection: 85/24/82/.275/.342/.468/5

231) Alek Thomas ARI, OF, 20.11 – Reports were all positive from alt camp. Thomas is an excellent athlete with underrated power and has shown an advanced plate approach so far in his young professional career. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/21/77/.268/.337/.442/19

232) Spencer Howard PHI, RHP, 24.8 – Shoulder stiffness limited Howard’s MLB debut to 24.1 IP where he put up a pitching line of 5.92/1.64/23/10. Stuff looked very good with a 94 MPH fastball and 3 quality secondaries (slider, curve, change). 2021 Projection: 9/4.24/1.35/147 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.76/1.23/181 in 172 IP

233) Pete-Crow Armstrong NYM, OF, 19.0 -Selected 19th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/19/73/.274/.340/.439/19

234) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 3rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the 6’0”, 196 pound Meyer is an excellent athlete with an elite fastball/slider combo and a changeup that has the ability to develop into a legitimate third pitch. There is some bullpen risk, but we’ve seen predominantly two pitch starters given the chance to start of late and thrive. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.74/1.22/190 in 172 IP

235) Marco Gonzales SEA, LHP, 29.1 – Career year with a pitching line of 3.10/0.95/64/7 in 69.2 IP. K% increased 6.1% to a career high 23.1%, but whiff% only increased 1.6% to 19.7%, meaning the strikeout gains might not be sustainable. Relatively low .263 BABIP, 4.13 xFIP and 3.84 xERA is why I called it a “career year,” and not a breakout. 2021 Projection: 12/3.78/1.26/150 in 170 IP

236) Sandy Alcantara MIA, RHP, 25.7 – Covid limited Alcantara to 7 starts. Throws one of the most valuable sinkers in the game to go along with 4 other about average pitches (4-seamer, curve, change, slider). 2021 Projection: 8/4.09/1.31/156 in 174 IP

237) James Karinchak CLE, Closer, 25.7 – Throws two pitches and both are elite with his curveball posting a 56.3% whiff% and fastball clocking in at 95.5 MPH with a .228 xwOBA. It resulted in a 48.6% K%, but it also comes with major control issues (14.7% BB%). 2021 Projection: 3/3.31/1.21/92/31 in 60 IP

238) Aroldis Chapman NYY, Closer, 33.1 – Covid limited Chapman to 16.1 IP including the playoffs, and he looked like his normal dominant self in those innings. 2021 Projection: 3/3.02/1.11/85/34 in 58 IP

239) Corey Kluber NYY, RHP, 35.0 – Shut down for the season after a single inning with a grade 2 strain of the teres major muscle in the back of his right shoulder. He missed most of 2019 with a fractured right elbow and strained oblique. Overpowering velocity has never been a big part of his game, so if he can get healthy enough to stay on the mound, I believe in his ability to stay effective even with diminished stuff. 2021 Projection: 9/3.88/1.24/140 in 140 IP

240) James Paxton FA, LHP, 32.5 – Flexor strain in left arm ended Paxton’s season after a poor 20.1 IP (6.64 ERA). He was coming off back surgery in February and the stuff didn’t look the same with a severe 3.3 MPH drop in velocity to 92.1 MPH. The strikeout ability was still there with 26 K’s, so he isn’t a bad bounce back pick if the price is right. 2021 Projection: 9/3.97/1.29/172 in 145 IP

241) Willson Contreras CHC, C, 28.11 – Raised launch angle 1.6 degrees to 9.1, which is a step in the right direction. Exit velocity also hit a career high of 89.8 MPH. On the whole, everything stayed pretty stable for Contreras. 2021 Projection: 64/22/66/.263/.345/.465/2

242) Didi Gregorius PHI, SS, 31.3 – Bounced back from a down 2019, slashing .284/.339/.488 with 10 homers, 3 steals, and a career best 11.8% K% in 60 games. Exit velocity dropped 4.4 MPH to a career worst 83.8 MPH, but FB/LD exit velocity stayed within career norms at 90.2 MPH, so I’m inclined to think it is mostly a small sample aberration. 2021 Projection: 75/24/83/.271/.328/.457/6

243) Willie Calhoun TEX, OF, 26.5 – Fractured his jaw on March 8th after being hit in the face by a Julio Urias mid-90’s fastball. He couldn’t get mentally right after that and it resulted in a disastrous season (.491 OPS in 29 games). His K% (15.7%) and exit velocity (89.3 MPH) were still strong, so some of the struggles look to be poor luck as well. With the full off-season to get his head right, I’m expecting that plus contact/power combo to shine. 2021 Projection: 74/26/83/.267/.326/.469/0

244) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 21.4 – Worked on becoming more of a “pitcher” at alt camp going against more advanced competition, but it’s still the 95+ MPH fastball with good control that gets you most excited. Plus slider, above average change, and above average curve rounds out the arsenal. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 13/3.78/1.19/196 in 180 IP

245) Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 24.11 – Opted out of the 2020 season but is supposedly fully ready to go for 2021. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery in September 2018, so while the stuff is absolutely electric, it’s been a minute since he’s pitched in official games. 2021 Projection: June-5/4.32/1.35/110 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.26/193 in 176 IP

246) Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 6th overall, Hancock is a 6’4” righty with plus command of a mid 90’s fastball and plus changeup. Slider is inconsistent and will be the key to reaching his full potential. Watching some of his better starts makes you want to place him as the top overall pitcher in first year player drafts, but the consistency hasn’t been there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.20/186 in 178 IP

247) Ryan Mountcastle BAL, OF/1B, 24.1 – Strong MLB debut with a .333/.386/.492 triple-slash, 5 homers, and a 21.4%/7.9% K%/BB%. BABIP was high (.398) and exit velocity was mediocre (87.4 MPH), so the underlying numbers weren’t quite as encouraging as the surface stats. 2021 Projection: 72/22/81/.268/.320/.447/3

248) Jordan Groshans TOR, SS, 21.5 – Struggled early at alternate camp, but impressed team officials with his resiliency and focus, going on to lead all Toronto hitters with 6 homers. Groshans is an all around good hitter who can use the whole field, and at 6’3”, 205 pounds, will only continue to grow into more power. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 80/24/87/.267/.341/.471/6

249) Brandon Nimmo NYM, OF, 28.0 – K% dropped 8.9% to a career best 19.1% en route to a career best .280 BA. Gets a big bump in OBP leagues with a career .390 OBP. 2021 Projection: 83/18/74/.267/.396/.451/6

250) Justin Turner FA, 3B, 36.4 – Whiff% jumped 3.4% to a career worst 20.5%, sprint speed dropped 0.7 ft/sec to a career low 25.4 ft/sec, and ISO dropped to a 6 year low of .153. Exit velocity and K/BB numbers were still strong, but there are some signs of decline. 2021 Projection: 77/23/75/.292/.383/.502/2

251) German Marquez COL, RHP, 26.1 – Coors continues to do what it does by absolutely destroying the ERA of talented hurlers. Marquez put a 5.68 ERA at home and 2.06 ERA on the road. Start him at Coors at your own risk. 2021 Projection: 11/4.08/1.28/178 in 183 IP

252) Brian Anderson MIA, 3B, 27.10 – Surface stats (11 homers and .810 OPS in 59 games) looked much better than the underlying numbers. Exit velocity dropped 2.5 MPH to 87.4 MPH and whiff% skyrocketed 7% to a career worst 34.4%. 2021 Projection: 73/23/82/.252/.341/.446/3

253) Jameson Taillon NYY, RHP, 29.4 – Missed all of 2020 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2019. Rehab is going well and is expected to be a full go for 2021. Taillon is a hard thrower with good ratios but doesn’t put up huge K totals. 2021 Projection: 8/4.02/1.27/138 in 150 IP

254) Willy Adames TB, SS, 25.7 – Continued to post solid but unspectacular numbers, slashing .259/.332/.481 with 8 homers and 2 steals. Underlying numbers tell a slightly different story with an increase in power (FB/LD exit velocity up 3.1 MPH to 96.1 MPH) and major surge in strikeouts (36.1%.) 2021 Projection: 72/22/67/.251/.331/.438/5

255) Brailyn Marquez CHC, LHP, 22.2 – 0.2 inning MLB debut was a disaster with 5 ER, 3 walks and 1 strikeout, but more importantly the stuff was nasty with a 97.9 MPH fastball, 84.1 MPH slider, and 90.8 MPH changeup. Alternative camp reports had the changeup showing improvement, so if true, it gives him a legitimate third pitch. He’s still more pure stuff than refinement, but it seems like he took a step in the right direction in 2020. 2021 Projection: 2/4.31/1.37/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.71/1.27/185 in 171 IP

256) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 23.2 – Fastball was consistently hitting the high 90’s at instructs, which is very dangerous considering he has some of the best command over the pitch in the minors. 2021 Projection: 2/4.33/1.28/47 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.79/1.19/184 in 176 IP

257) Nick Madrigal CHW, 2B, 24.1 – Played true to form in his MLB debut with a .340 BA, 6.4% K%, and 0 homers in 29 games. He only stole 2 bases on 3 attempts, and his 28 ft/sec sprint speed is good but not eye popping, but maybe the underwhelming speed numbers had something to do with separating his shoulder just 5 games into his debut. The injury was bad enough to need surgery, which he underwent in October 2020 with a 5-6 month timetable. 2021 Projection: 74/5/66/.304/.348/.382/19

258) Garrett Hampson COL, OF/2B, 26.6 – Strikeout rate going in the wrong direction with a 5.7% increase to 32.6% and continues to post a below average exit velocity (86.3 MPH). He’s very fast, but not making contact very often and not hitting it all that hard when you do is not a combo. 2021 Projection: 69/5/51/.251/.314/.398/18

259) Hunter Bishop SF, OF, 22.9 – Reports from alternative camp praised Bishop’s improvements in plate approach and most importantly, his swing and miss tendencies. He’s a great athlete with a plus power/speed combo, so if the reports can be trusted, he took a step in the right direction this year. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 84/26/81/.258/.343/.469/13

260) Luis Matos SF, OF, 19.2 – Here is Matos smacking a dinger at instructs. It is a continuation of him showing more power than expected in his pro debut with 7 homers in 55 games. He’s also shown a good feel to hit and plus speed, giving him the makings of an all category contributor. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 84/23/78/.272/.336/.453/14

261) Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 23.11 – Pounds the strike zone with a plus fastball and 3 quality secondaries (slider, curve, change). Gets elite extension at 6’6”, 225 pounds, helping all of his pitches play up. 2021 Projection: 4/4.28/1.29/84 in 88 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.75/1.23/191 in 182 IP

262) Tommy La Stella SF, 2B/1B, 32.2 – Elite contact rates with a career best 5.3% K%, and BB% jumped 5.6% to 11.8%. Couldn’t maintain the 2019 homer breakout due to a below average 90.4 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 83/19/72/.289/.360/.456/1

263) Eric Hosmer SD, 1B, 31.5 – Fractured left index finger limited Hosmer to 38 games. Finally dragged his launch angle off the ground to a not terrible 8.7 degrees, and it resulted in a monster power outbreak with 9 homers and a career high .231 ISO. 2021 Projection: 77/24/88/.272/.330/.457/5

264) Hunter Dozier KC, 1B/OF, 29.7 – Tested positive for Covid right before the season began and his exit velocity dropped off a cliff when he returned, plummeting 4.7 MPH to 86.4 MPH. He still managed to stay effective even with the power outage (14.5% BB% and a 104 wRC+), so everything is in place for him to build on his 2019 breakout assuming the power returns. 2021 Projection: 79/22/78/.255/.341/.451/7

265) Anthony Santander BAL, OF, 26.5 – Oblique injury ended his season on September 4th. K% dropped 6% to 15.2%, but whiff% actually increased 4.4% to 25.6%, so the K% gains were likely a mirage. Raised launch angle to 24.7 degrees, but relatively weak 92.1 MPH makes me hesitant to completely buy into the power outbreak (11 homers in 37 games). 2021 Projection: 71/25/84/.255/.309/.460/2

266) Aaron Hicks NYY, OF, 31.6 – Walk rate spiked to a career high 19.4% and strikeout rate dropped back to career norms (18%) after jumping to 28.2% in 2019. Exit velocity was strong with a 88.2 MPH average exit velocity and 93.7 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, which is nice to see coming off Tommy John surgery in October 2019. 2021 Projection: 84/25/77/.244/.359/.453/7

267) AJ Pollock LAD, OF, 33.4 – Was on pace to shatter his career high in homers with 16 bombs in 55 games, and while the underlying power numbers were good, there wasn’t any big changes to suggest that is even close to a sustainable pace. 2021 Projection: 75/24/76/.262/.321/.475/8

268) Mark Canha OAK, OF, 31.1 – Power took a small step back with a 1.9 MPH decrease in exit velocity to 92.4 MPH, resulting in only 5 homers in 59 games. Average exit velocity was still strong at 89.7 MPH, as was launch angle with a 19.4 degree mark, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. 2021 Projection: 82/25/80/.256/.358/.471/6

269) Christian Walker ARI, 1B, 30.0 – Poor defense at 1B makes job security a major issue. Surface stats didn’t look quite as nice in 2020 (.792 OPS) as they did in 2019 (.825 OPS), but the underlying numbers backed up the 2019 breakout. 2021 Projection: 76/24/74/.253/.334/.452/3

270) Hunter Renfroe BOS, OF, 29.2 – BA bottomed out to .156, and while his K% decreased 4.6% to 26.6%, his whiff% actually increased 1.5% to 32.1%. The power was as good as ever with 8 homers, a 96.1 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, and 17.3 degree launch angle. 2021 Projection: 67/28/79/.233/.300/.476/4

271) Zach Davies CHC, RHP, 28.2 – Career year with a pitching line of 2.73/1.07/63/19 in 69.1 IP. K% increased 7.6% to a career high 22.8%, but even with the strikeout gains, xFIP (4.14) and xERA (5.01) were not buying into the surface stats. 2021 Projection: 11/3.85/1.27/148 in 170 IP

272) Griffin Canning LAA, RHP, 24.11 – Velocity down 1.1 MPH to 92.8 MPH, K% down 1.5% to 23.5%, exit velocity up 1 MPH to 88.9 MPH, and BB% up 2.9% to 9.7%. In other words, everything was just a little bit worse than in 2019. 2021 Projection: 9/4.11/1.31/152 in 153 IP

273) Elieser Hernandez MIA, RHP, 25.11 – Right lat strain ended his season after 25.2 IP, but it was an impressive 25.2 IP, putting up a pitching line of 3.16/1.01/34/5. Velocity hit a career high 91.3 MPH as did his K% (32.1%) and BB% (4.7%). 91.8 MPH exit velocity against shows there was some positive luck at play, 2021 Projection: 7/4.08/1.26/148 in 145 IP

274) Jurickson Profar SD, 2B/OF, 28.1 – Hasn’t met the expectations that his elite prospect pedigree put on him, but Profar has settled into being a solid player with good contact skills (13.9% K%) and a moderate power speed combo (7 homers and 7 steals in 56 games). 2021 Projection: 75/20/69/.271/.335/.430/10

275) Scott Kingery PHI, 2B, 26.11 – Couldn’t build on a solid 2019. BABIP (.200) and exit velocity (85.3 MPH) both tanked leading to an awful season (.511 OPS). 2021 Projection: 68/20/61/.248/.311/.428/12

276) Evan White SEA, 1B, 25.1 – Has been working on tapping into his raw power since the end of 2018, and he was successful at that with a 91.7 MPH exit velocity (96.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity) and 8 homers in 54 games in his MLB debut, but he may have went a bit too far as his K% soared to 41.6% (.176 BA). 2021 Projection: 71/24/78/.242/.311/.428/5

277) Justin Verlander HOU, RHP, 38.1 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in September and will miss all of 2021. If any 38 year old can successfully recover from Tommy John surgery and return to form, it’s Verlander. 2021 Projection: OUT

278) Yasiel Puig FA, OF, 30.4 – Missed all of 2020 after testing positive for Covid in mid July. Was reportedly going to sign with Atlanta before the positive test, but had the season started on time his free agency was almost sure to bleed into the season. I would be cautious until he officially signs. Fool me once … 2021 Projection: 75/25/81/.264/.329/.468/13

279) Austin Slater SF, OF, 28.4 – Broke out with a .282/.408/.506 triple-slash, 5 homers, and 8 steals in 104 PA. Underlying stats back up the breakout with career highs in K% (21.2%), BB% (15.4%), exit velocity (89.2 MPH), and launch angle (10.9 degrees). The only thing holding him back is being in a short side of a platoon role, but the upside is there if San Francisco unleashes him. 2021 Projection: 63/17/66/.260/.347/.438/14

280) Michael Busch LAD, 2B, 23.5 – It’s hard to have major risers just on the back of good reports, but Busch’s 2020 reports were so glowing with talk of plus hit and plus power that it would be hard to ignore. It is the same skills that he displayed in the ACC, and considering how much I already liked him coming into the year, I’m comfortable giving him a significant bump. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/26/86/.267/.346/.478/5

281) Austin Hays BAL, OF, 25.9 – Non displaced rib fracture limited Hays to 33 games. Good feel to hit has transferred to the majors, posting an excellent 20.2% whiff% and .279 BA in 2020. The power hasn’t fully gotten there yet with a very poor 89.7 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 78/19/71/.268/.329/.435/9

282) Daulton Varsho ARI, C/OF, 24.9 – 86.2/90.6 MPH average/FB exit velocity is well below average, and while it should rise, he put up an 87 MPH average exit velocity in the minors, so the MLB numbers don’t look to be an aberration. 18.4 degree launch angle ensures he’ll take full advantage of the power he does have, and a 28.3 ft/sec sprint speed plus a long track record of success on the base paths ensures healthy stolen base totals. 2021 Projection: 76/18/69/.251/.322.,429/13

283) Chris Bassitt OAK, RHP, 32.1 – Throws a 6 pitch mix and while none are dominant, all of them are effective. The effectiveness of his pitches mirror his underlying stats too, with nothing being standout, but nothing setting off red flags either. He’s a solid but unspectacular starter. 2021 Projection: 10/3.92/1.26/150 in 160 IP

284) Jean Segura PHI, SS, 31.0 – Changed his hitting profile with career highs in launch angle (11.2 degrees), BB% (10.6%), and K% (20.7%). It led to a homer outbreak with 7 homers in 54 games, but it also came with a drop in BA to .266 (.314 BABIP). 2021 Projection: 83/17/68/.275/.338/.425/9

285) Nathan Eovaldi BOS, RHP, 31.3 – Whiff% hit a career high 28.1% and stuff remained nasty with 97.3 MPH heat. It led to a very solid season, putting up a pitching line of 3.72/1.20/52/7 in 48.1 IP. 2021 Projection: 10/3.93/1.28/149 in 145 IP

286) Joc Pederson CHC, OF, 28.11 – .200 BABIP tanked his triple-slash (.190/.285/.397), but power still looked great with a career high 93 MPH exit velocity and 7 homers in 43 games. He also dominated in the playoffs with a 169 wRC+ in 37 PA. 2021 Projection: 73/27/71/.241/.336/.488/3

287) Nolan Gorman STL, 3B, 20.11 – Reports were all positive from alt camp, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Gorman has double plus power potential, but his strikeout rates have been a bit on the worrying side (31.7% K% in 230 PA at High-A). ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 78/31/89/.250/.333/.500/3

288) Heliot Ramos SF, OF, 21.7 – Strained oblique early in instructional league play which ended his season. He has big time power but will have to cut down on his strikeouts in the upper levels of the minors before he gets the call. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 78/26/84/.261/.334/.472/8

289) George Valera CLE, OF, 20.5 – Posses one of the sweetest lefty swings in the minors. Coaches praised his maturing plate approach at alt camp and instructs, while continuing to smack the ball all over the field. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/25/84/.276/.357/.478/9

290) Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 22.7 – Selected 20th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Mitchell builds his game around double plus speed and plus centerfield defense. At 6’3”, 215 pounds the plus raw power is in there, but he hasn’t been able to tap into yet with a low launch angle and 0 homers in 15 games in 2020 (6 homers in 62 game in 2019). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 82/16/68/.266/.335/.424/24

291) Nolan Jones CLE, 3B, 22.11 – Defense was the name of the game for Jones in 2020 with Cleveland looking to expand his versatility in anticipation of a possible OF debut. He’s an extremely patient hitter with swing and miss issues and double plus power that he hasn’t fully tapped into yet. ETA: September-8/3/8/.233/.308/.403/0 Prime Projection: 83/27/82/.251/.358/.477/2

292) Josh Lowe TB, OF, 23.2 – Was named a top prospect performer at Tampa’s alternative site and was praised for “showing well in all facets of the game.” He was coming off off-season shoulder surgery, so at the very least it shows he is back to full strength. Lowe is a plus power/speed combo with hit tool concerns. 2021 Projection: Septebmer-9/3/7/.222/.296/.393/3 Prime Projection: 81/24/76/.245/.328/.457/16

293) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 22.6 – Cruz is a beast of a man at 6’7” with double plus raw power, but high groundball rates have prevented him from tapping into it. Fly ball percentage jumped up 8.9% to 38.1% after his promotion to Double-A in the 2nd half of 2019, so if he can maintain those gains, the double plus raw power will definitely start to shine through. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 75/27/85/.252/.323/.476/9

294) Hedbert Perez MIL, OF, 18.0 – Was putting up some big time exit velocity readings at instructs, and impressed at alternate camp with several opposite field dingers. The power certainly looks legit. Perez has some of the highest upside in all of the minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/26/88/.273/.342/.468/17

295) Brady Singer KC, RHP, 24.9 – As advertised in his MLB debut with a plus sinker/slider combo. Only threw his changeup 4.7% of the time, but it was effective when he threw it with a .260 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 9/4.16/1.31/147 in 160 IP

296) John Means BAL, RHP, 27.11 – Velocity surged on the 4-seamer 2.1 MPH to 93.8 MPH and it resulted in a 10.7% increase in whiff% on the pitch (28.9%). 2021 Projection: 9/4.15/1.26/154 in 163 IP

297) Zach Eflin PHI, LHP, 27.0 – Upping sinker usage 29.7% to 51.6% resulted in a career low 7.9 degree launch angle against. K% surged 10.3% to 28.6% but whiff% only increased 3.7% to 24%. 2021 Projection: 10/4.22/1.31/158 in 161 IP

298) Carlos Martinez STL, RHP, 29.6 – Got caught up in the Cards Covid outbreak and it resulted in a completely lost season for Martinez with his surface stats and underlying stats way down across the board in 20 IP. 2021 Projection: 8/4.17/1.31/142 in 148 IP

299) Andrew McCutchen PHI, OF, 34.5 – Posted a career low 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed coming off ACL surgery in June 2019. BB% also dropped 7.3% to a career low 9.1%. On the plus side, his power looked all the way back with 10 homers and a 18.2 degree launch angle in 57 games. 2021 Projection: 81/24/79/.260/.347/.460/8

300) Jake Odorizzi FA, RHP, 31.0 – Limited to 13.2 IP with a variety of ailments (right intercostal strain, chest contustion, blister). He didn’t look very good in those innings with a 6.59 ERA, but he was able to maintain 2019’s velocity bump with a career high 93 MPH 4-seamer. 2021 Projection: 10/3.94/1.27/161 in 160 IP

301) David Price LAD, LHP, 35.7 – Opted out of the 2020 season. Last we heard from Price, he was having a cyst removed from his left wrist in September 2019. The velocity has been in a clear decline over the past 2 seasons (91.9 MPH), so maybe the year off will be rejuvenating. 2021 Projection: 10/4.15/1.26/161 in 162 IP

302) Sean Manaea OAK, LHP, 29.2 – Ditched 4-seamer in favor of his sinker, and it resulted in a career best 50.3% GB%. 2021 Projection: 10/3.90/1.22/136 in 155 IP

303) Amed Rosario CLE, SS, 25.4 – Gave back all the gains he made in exit velocity (2.9 MPH decrease to 86.5 MPH), didn’t steal a single base in 46 games, and might have lost his starting job to Andres Gimenez. This seems to be one of the cases where the shortened season can’t excuse all of the red flags, and Rosario seems to agree as he is working to revamp his swing with the batting coach who turned Justin Turner into an animal. 2021 Projection: 63/13/67/.274/.313/.415/10

304) Madison Bumgarner ARI, LHP, 31.8 – I recommended trading Bumgarner last off-season in my 2020 Top 1,000 Ranking, “With xFIP’s over four the last three years and the aforementioned ballpark downgrade, I would be looking to trade Bumgarner this off-season,” and I hope you listened because his velocity was down 3 MPH to 88.4 MPH, his ERA ballooned to 6.48, and a back issue popped up which kept him out for almost a month. He closed out the season with 2 strong starts, and he’s only 31 years old, so there is certainly bounce back potential. 2021 Projection: 9/4.26/1.31/153 in 165 IP

305) Michael Pineda MIN, RHP, 32.3 – Returned from a 39 game PED suspension and looked good in 5 starts with a 3.38 ERA and 25/7 K/BB in 26.2 IP. The velocity is not quite what it used to be with a career low 92.1 MPH 4-seamer and 82.4 MPH slider, but the pitches are as effective as they ever were. 2021 Projection: 9/4.17/1.25/145 in 150 IP

306) Jeimer Candelario DET, 1B/3B, 27.4 – Power took another step with a 2 MPH increase in exit velocity to 90.2 MPH and notched a career high .205 ISO. 2021 Projection: 76/22/74/.253/.344/.458/3

307) Robert Puason OAK, SS, 18.5 – Handled himself well at alternate camp focusing on the basics of being a professional like routine and preparation. The 6’3”, 165 pound Pauson landed a $5.1 million bonus in last years international signing period, and he has all the requisite talent that a bonus like that indicates. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/24/87/.266/.334/.462/21

308) DL Hall BAL, LHP, 22.6 – Fastball was sitting 96-99 at alternate camp and made improvements to his 3 secondaries (change, curve, slider). The stuff is electric but control/command still needs to take a major step forward to reach his considerable ceiling. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.32/187 in 174 IP

309) Joey Bart SF, C, 24.3 – Rough MLB debut, slashing .233/.288/.320 with 0 homers and a 41/3 K/BB in 33 games. Hit the ball very hard when he did make contact with a 89 MPH exit velocity and 95.6 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, so if he can improve his plate approach, the homers will come. 2021 Projection: 22/7/28/.237/.299/.404/1 Prime Projection: 66/24/77/.256/.322/.454/3

310) Jonathan India CIN, 3B, 24.3 – Power looked much improved at alternative camp with reports of increased bat speed and was consistently ripping the ball all over the park. It’s nice to see after his power hasn’t completely shown up in his minor league career. Combine that with a good feel to hit, advanced approach, and speed, and India could be set up for a big 2021. 2021 Projection: August-24/6/19/.248/.331/.429/4 Prime Projection: 81/22/74/.268/.349/.454/12

311) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 23.2 – The move of Isaiah Kiner Falefa from 3B to SS opens up a clear path for Jung. He was getting rave reviews at instructs for his plus hitting ability and plus power potential. 2021 Projection: May-61/18/66/.251/.322/.445/3 Prime Projection: 77/24/83/.273/.341/.468/5

312) Bobby Dalbec BOS, 1B, 25.9 – Insane power (99.8 MPH FB/LD exit velocity with 8 homers in 23 games) and insane strikeouts (42.4% K%). Unsustainable .394 BABIP kept Dalbec’s batting average respectable (.263). 2021 Projection: 72/33/81/.227/.312/.470/3

313) Raisel Iglesias LAA, Closer, 31.3 – Had all four pitches working in 2020 with all them returning positive value. It led to career bests in xFIP (2.87), xERA (2.50) and WHIP (0.91). 2021 Projection: 3/3.37/1.15/85/31 in 66 IP

314) Yusei Kikuchi SEA, LHP, 29.8 – The ERA didn’t change all that much with 5.17 ERA, but almost everything else did. Velocity jumped 2.5 MPH to 95 MPH, he added a 92.1 MPH cutter to the arsenal which become his most used pitch, and his K% increased 8.1% to 24.2%. It resulted in a 3.51 xERA and 3.78 xFIP. 2021 Projection: 9/4.31/1.32/156 in 165 IP

315) Jesus Aguilar MIA, 1B, 30.9 – K% dropped for the third year in a row to a career best 18.5%. It led to a bounce back season with a 121 wRC+. 2021 Projection: 68/24/79/.262/.343/.459/0

316) Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 17.3 – At 6’2”, 175 pounds Hernandez takes vicious hacks at the dish, foreshadowing monster power potential when his projectable frame fills out. He also gets high marks for his athleticism, feel to hit, and plus speed. The top international prospects consistently get underrated in first year player drafts, so while the risk is high, the discount in drafts mitigates that. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.273/.341/.476/14

317) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 17.4 – At 6’2”, 170 pounds Diaz is a plus athlete who has displayed a good feel to hit and the ability to hit it with authority in Venezuelan youth leagues. The power potential is plus as he gains strength, and he should retain enough speed to steal 10+ bags even as he gains weight. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 85/24/81/.279/.352/.462/12

318) Erick Pena KC, OF, 18.1 – Held his own at instructs playing against advanced competition, but did show some swing and miss. He’s 6’3” with a smooth lefty swing that is easy to dream on. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 85/27/91/.272/.348/.490/7

319) Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 11th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Crochet made it all the way up to the Majors and unleashed an unhittable, double plus 100.1 MPH fastball on the league. He’s never been a full time starter, so bullpen risk is high, although his upside would be considerable as a closer. Injury risk is high too as shoulder soreness delayed the start of his college season and then he suffered a flexor strain to his forearm to end his season during the playoffs. 2021 Projection: 2/4.23/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.77/1.28/189 in 168 IP

320) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 22.2 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 220 pound Kherstad has at least plus power and put up impressive home run totals from day 1 in the SEC, knocking 37 homers in 150 career games. The K/BB numbers are suspect (129/54), but he was in the midst of a Junior year breakout before the season got shutdown (6 homers with a 9/7 K/BB in 16 games). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/31/92/.250/.323/.505/3

321) Austin Hendrick CIN, OF, 19.10 – Selected 12th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Hendrick generates incredible bat speed with at least plus power potential. Put up a 105 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event in 2019, which puts him in the 99.8% percentile for his prep class. On the downside, there is some swing and miss concerns, he’s old for his class, and he hasn’t consistently faced the toughest competition. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/29/87/.252/.334/.481/6

322) Kenley Jansen LAD, Closer, 33.6 – Velocity declined for the 4th year in a row to a career worst 90.9 MPH on the cutter, and BB% spiked 2.7% to 8.8%. He was still effective overall with a 3.33 ERA and 33 K’s in 24.1 IP, but he did notch a career worst 1.15 WHIP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.67/1.13/75/34 in 64 IP

323) Ryan Pressly HOU, Closer, 32.4 – .365 BABIP kept the surface stats in check with a 3.43 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but the 12.43 K/9 and 2.74 xERA were still in prime form. 2021 Projection: 3/3.39/1.18/84/30 in 62 IP

324) Nick Anderson TB, Closer Committee, 30.9 – The numbers are silly elite (0.55/0.49/26/3 in 16.1 IP), but Tampa has a fluid bullpen philosophy, and if 2020 is any indication they are likely to keep Anderson’s overall innings on the low side as well. 2021 Projection: 3/2.94/1.02/90/18 in 59 IP

325) Brad Hand WASH, Closer, 31.0 – Velocity continued to decline to 91.4 MPH and whiff% tanked 5.9% to 24.8%, but it didn’t stop him from dominating with a pitching line of 2.05/0.77/29/4 in 22 IP 2021 Projection: 3/3.42/1.18/80/32 in 65 IP

326) Kirby Yates TOR, Closer, 34.0 – Signing with Toronto ensures he will remain a closer. Surgery to remove bone chips in his right elbow ended his season after 4.1 IP. Expected to be fully healthy for 2021. 2021 Projection: 3/3.43/1.16/82/30 in 55 IP

327) Luke Weaver ARI, RHP, 27.7 – FB% skyrocketed to a career high 48.7% (37.8% in 2019) which led to homer problems (1.73 HR/9). BABIP (.349) and left on base percentage (63.2%) were both worse than career averages, so some of that 6.58 ERA is due to bad luck. 2021 Projection: 7/4.38/1.35/149 in 145 IP

328) Mitch Keller PIT, RHP, 25.0 – Oblique strain limited Keller to 21.2 IP. Complete reversal from 2019 where his 7.13 ERA didn’t match his 3.47 xFIP, to 2020 where his 2.91 ERA didn’t match his 6.57 xFIP. Everything looked bad for Keller in 2020, but considering the shortened year and injury, I would throw it out completely. 2021 Projection: 8/4.23/1.34/150 in 150 IP

329) Matthew Boyd DET, LHP, 30.2 – Couldn’t maintain his 2019 strikeout explosion with his K% dropping 8.1% to 22.1%. He got hit up for a 6.71 ERA. 2021 Projection: 9/4.42/1.36/171 in 165 IP

330) Jordan Montgomery NYY, LHP, 28.4 – 5.11 ERA in 44 IP, but the underlying stats looked much better. Velocity reached a career high on his sinker (92.5 MPH) and 4-seamer (92.6 MPH) while holding opponents to an elite 84.6 MPH exit velocity against. 24.6 K% and 4.7% BB% also portend good things for the future. 2021 Projection: 10/4.03/1.28/152 in 158 IP

331) Justus Sheffield SEA, LHP, 24.10 – Ditched the 4-seamer in favor of a sinker which led to a 3.58 ERA in 55.1 IP. The underlying numbers were not quite as good with a well below average 19.8% whiff% and 4.18 xERA. 2021 Projection: 8/4.08/1.31/151 in 160 IP

332) Caleb Smith ARI, LHP, 28.8 – Catching Covid limited Smith to 14 IP. The stuff looked good with a 35.4% whiff%, and while a 20% BB% is obviously ridiculous, he’s had control problems throughout his career (10.3% career BB%). 2021 Projection: 8/4.24/1.28/158 in 148 IP

333) Michael Lorenzen CIN, RHP, 29.3 – Currently penciled in as the 5th starter. Lorenzen throws a 6 pitch mix headlined by a 96.8 MPH 4-seamer. Changeup and slider are his go to strikeout weapons with a 45.5% whiff% and 52.1% whiff%, respectively. Control has been an issue throughout his career, and it hit a career worst 11.6% in 2020. 2021 Projection: 6/4.21/1.35/121 in 125 IP

334) Victor Reyes DET, OF, 26.6 – Exit velocity jumped 2.4 MPH to 90 MPH which resulted in a small bump in homer power with 4 homers in 213 PA (3 homers in 292 PA in 2019). Sprint speed dropped from 28.9 ft/sec to 27.9 ft/sec, but it didn’t impact his stolen base totals with 8 steals. 2021 Projection: 76/14/59/.268/.303/.412/16

335) Maikel Franco FA, 3B, 28.8 – Posts excellent contacts numbers (15.6% K%) with above average power (94.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity), but the overall numbers remain more solid than standout with a 106 wRC+. 2021 Projection: 66/23/78/.268/.322/.461/0

336) Jonathan Schoop DET, 2B, 29.6 – Continues to post above average power numbers (8 homers in 44 games) even with below average exit velocity (87.2 MPH). 2021 Projection: 69/22/66/.263/.311/.459/1

337) Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 25.9 – Career best 27.4% K% but a .189 BABIP tanked his BA (.173). Continued to hit the ball hard (95.4 MPH FB/LD exit velocity) and in the air (15.1 degree launch), to go along with blazing fast speed (29.6 ft/sec sprint speed), so the ingredients are there for a monster breakout if he can lock down playing time without Fowler in the mix. 2021 Projection: 68/23/66/.244/.317/.463/8

338) Manuel Margot TB, OF, 26.6 – Power absolutely detonated in the postseason with 5 homers in 19 games, which is nice to see after hitting only 1 in 47 games during the regular season. He ran a ton with 14 steals in 66 total games and tied a career high in exit velocity at 89.4 MPH. I’ve been calling Margot a later career breakout type in the mold of Lorenzo Cain in my last two top 1,000’s and still think he is on that path. 2021 Projection: 68/14/59/.267/.331/.406/17

339) Franchy Cordero KC, OF, 26.5 – A severe right wrist sprain which required a procedure limited Cordero to 16 games. Extremely high strikeout rates have been holding his plus power/speed combo back, but he managed to put up a 9.5% K% in 42 PA in 2021, which is a good sign even if the sample is extremely small. 2021 Projection: 69/20/66/.248/.315/.445/10

340) Oscar Mercado CLE, OF, 26.4 – Slow start got Mercado sent back down to alternate camp in August and he wasn’t any better when returning in September. Sprint speed tanked from 29.5 ft/sec in 2019 to 28.1 ft/sec in 2020, so maybe something wasn’t right. Cleveland’s OF is a total crapshoot right now, so he can work his way back into playing time with a rejuvenated 2021. 2021 Projection: 58/11/51/.258/.307/.406/13

341) Travis d’Arnaud ATL, C, 32.2 – .321 BA is a mirage with a .411 BABIP and a career worst 27.2% K%, but the power is legit with a blazing 93.4 MPH exit velocity and 9 homers in 44 games. 2021 Projection: 57/22/65/.264/.328/.463/1

342) Roberto Osuna FA, Closer, 26.2 – Suffered from right elbow soreness early in the season which limited Osuna to 4.1 IP. The initial diagnosis recommended Tommy John surgery, but as of now he will try the rest and rehab route. It goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway, the injury risk is high. 2021 Projection: 2/3.34/1.06/31/15 in 30 IP

343) Trevor Rogers MIA, LHP, 23.5 – 6.61 ERA in 28 IP but the underlying numbers looked much better with a 30% K%, 5.3% barrel%, and 3.49 xERA. He throws a dominant changeup (.203 xwOBA), a high spin rate 93.6 MPH fastball, an average slider, and a little used sinker. 2021 Projection: 7/4.22/1.35/131 in 125 IP

344) Simeon Woods Richardson TOR, RHP, 20.6 – Coaches at alternate camp talked up Richardson’s good feel to pitch and potential for 4 plus pitches, coming away particularly pleased with the progress he made on his curveball and changeup. He doesn’t have the mid 90’s heat right now, but everything else is there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 13/3.81/1.18/195 in 183 IP

345) Renato Nunez FA, 1B, 27.0 – Non-tendered by Baltimore despite cranking 12 homers in 52 games. I warned you in the 2020 Top 1,000 that holding down a starting job was going to be an issue for Nunez despite the no doubt power, writing, “Playing time is the main concern, not only this year but in the future, because he is a very bad defensive player. The power isn’t a question.” 2021 Projection: 69/24/75/.243/.316/.463/1

346) Ronny Mauricio NYM, SS, 20.0 – You’re betting on the considerable raw talent to blossom from the 6’3”, 166 pound Mauricio, because the current production is lacking with high groundball rates (52.8%) and not much power (4 homers in 116 games at Full-A). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/24/83/.273/.334/.457/5

347) Tyler Freeman CLE, 21.10 – Elite contact rates transferred to full season ball in 2019 with a 10.3% K% at Full-A and 9.1% K% at High-A. He doesn’t have an overly high ground ball rate, so when he inevitably gains strength as he matures, the home runs will come. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 88/16/63/.291/.338/.434/14

348) Matt Allan NYM, RHP, 19.11 – Drafted 89th overall in 2019, but received the 2nd highest bonus for a high school pitcher. Allen is physically mature at 6’3”, 225 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and a plus, high spin rate curveball. Reports from alt camp were positive about the development of his changeup, now giving him the chance for 3 plus pitches. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 14/3.68/1.25/190 in 180 IP

349) Josiah Gray LAD, RHP, 23.2 – Electric fastball/slider combo with plus command. Getting away from the competition of real games at alternate camp allowed him to really focus on his secondary pitches and showed improved shape on his curve and slider. 2021 Projection: 2/4.30/1.28/52 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.63/1.18/176 in 172 IP

350) Gilberto Jimenez BOS, OF, 20.9 – Showed up to instructs with added strength and size, while continuing to display a good feel to hit and double plus speed. If the power really does come around, Jimenez is going to fly up lists. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/14/63/.275/.336/.408/28

351) Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 21.5 – Uptick in velocity and was named the most improved and exciting player at Cardinals alternate camp, emphasizing all the work he put in with the analytics department. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.77/1.23/181 in 178 IP

352) Edward Cabrera MIA, RHP, 23.0 – Experienced arm discomfort which shut Cabrera down for over a month. He throws a nasty upper 90’s fastball with a plus curve and improving change. 2021 Projection: 3/4.33/1.34/69 in 72 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.24/183 in 176 IP

353) AJ Puk OAK, LHP, 25.11 – Oakland announced Puk will be a part of the starting rotation, but it might be wishful thinking with the arm injuries piling up. He underwent shoulder surgery in September, which comes off needing Tommy John surgery in August 2018. He is expected to be ready by Spring Training, and he’ll need a strong showing in order to lock in that starting role considering how nasty he could be out of the pen. 2021 Projection: 6/3.98/1.33/121 in 110 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.30/173 in 156 IP

354) Jordan Balazovic MIN, RHP, 22.7 – Showed up to camp with added weight, and it resulted in his fastball ticking up from the low 90’s to the mid 90’s while maintaining the ability to locate it. He uses an above average curve to get whiffs to go along with an average change. 2021 Projection: August- 3/4.26/1.29/42 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.22/185 in 178 IP

355) Ryan Yarbrough TB, RHP, 29.2 – Doesn’t throw gas (87.3 MPH sinker) or rack up strikeouts (7.1 K/9), but is among the best in the league at inducing weak contact (82.6 MPH exit velocity against). 2021 Projection: 11/3.92/1.23/129 in 155 IP

356) Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 24.7 – Duran made an adjustment to his swing to unlock more power and it worked like gangbusters with 8 homers at the alt site. Here he is absolutely cranking a homer to RF. Combine that with double plus speed and a good feel to hit, and he is one of the top 2020 breakouts. 2021 Projection: 28/4/23/.252/.304/.411/7 Prime Projection: 80/20/80/.260/.323/.442/21

357) Deivi Garcia NYY, RHP, 21.10 – Pounded the strike zone with a 4 pitch mix in his MLB debut, putting up a pitching line of 4.98/1.19/33/5 in 34.1 IP. Whiff% (22.8%) and velocity (91.9 MPH) were on the underwhelming side, and his slight frame at 5’9”, 163 pounds is still a concern, but he understands the art of pitching and has the ability to hit his spots. 2021 Projection: 5/4.34/1.30/96 in 98 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.88/1.24/176 in 171 IP

358) Jordan Hicks STL, Setup, 24.7 – Opted out of the 2020 season coming off Tommy John surgery in June 2019. He’ll have to win back his closer job in Spring, and he’s more than capable of doing that with a 101.1 MPH sinker and plus slider. 2021 Projection: 3/3.48/1.14/71/18 in 60 IP

359) Austin Nola SD, C, 31.3 – Doesn’t truly standout in any one way, but does a lot of thing really good (18.5% K%, 9.8% BB%, 89.7 MPH exit velocity, .273 batting average, 7 homers in 48 games). You get the point, Nola is an above average all around hitter. 2021 Projection: 72/19/76/.270/.345/.453/2

360) Kody Hoese LAD, 3B, 23.9 – Reported to be the best hitter at alternate camp showing a good feel to hit and power to all fields. He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds and was the 25th overall pick in the 2019 draft, so he has the build and pedigree to back up the alternate camp praise. ETA: Late 2021/22 Prime Projection: 76/24/82/.268/.333/.452/3

361) Tejay Antone CIN, RHP, 27.4 – Better in the majors than he ever was in the minors with a 2.80 ERA and 11.5 K/9 in 35.1 IP (8.2 K/9 at Double and Triple-A in 2019). Antone rocks a 95.6 MPH sinker, plus slider, and an untouchable curveball (.118 xwOBA) that he threw only 16.7% of the time. Not projected to start the year in the rotation, but he’ll be among the first in line when a spot inevitably opens. 2021 Projection: 6/3.99/1.30/135 in 128 IP

362) Lorenzo Cain MIL, OF, 35.0 – Opted out of the season after 5 games. Sprint speed dropped to 26.1 ft/sec in those games, and while it’s not a great sign considering his age, it was an extremely small sample of only 10 competitive runs. 2021 Projection: 79/13/48/.274/.345/.409/17

363) Kole Calhoun ARI, OF, 33.6 – Crushed 16 homers in 54 games on the back of a career high 17 degree launch angle. 2021 Projection: 79/27/77/.238/.332/.461/3

364) Justin Upton LAA, OF, 33.7 – Power is still in peak form with 9 homers and a career high 91.7 MPH exit velocity in 42 games, but the batting average keeps getting worse at .204, and the speed is all but gone. 2021 Projection: 76/30/84/.228/.317/.451/3

365) David Peralta ARI, OF, 33.8 – Hits for a high batting average with a 20.6% K%, 6.4 degree launch angle and 88.5 MPH GB exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 62/20/71/.279/.343/.447/.2

366) Kwang Hyun Kim STL, LHP, 32.9 – Soft tossing lefty (89.9 MPH 4-seamer) who induces weak contact (87.1 MPH exit velo against), but a 15.6% K% and 5.5 K/9 is extremely low. 2021 Projection: 10/4.08/1.24/128 in 166 IP

367) Miles Mikolas STL, RHP, 32.7 – Missed all of 2020 after undergoing surgery on the flexor tendon in his right arm, but is expected to be fully healthy for 2021. He’s a low K pitcher with plus control. 2021 Projection: 9/4.13/1.24/129 in 160 IP

368) Raimel Tapia COL, OF, 27.2 – There isn’t very much power in the bat (85.3 MPH exit velocity), but Tapia is fast (8 steals with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint speed in 51 games), and made the best contact of his career in 2020 with an 18.9% whiff%. 2021 Projection: 77/8/58/.283/.334/.410/17

369) Robbie Ray TOR, LHP, 29.6 – Control is getting worse with a career high 17.9% BB% while K% hit a 5 year low (27.1%). It led to a disastrous 6.62 ERA. 2021 Projection: 10/4.48/1.41/205 in 170 IP

370) Jose Urquidy HOU, RHP, 25.11 – Covid limited Urquidy to 45.1 IP including the playoffs, and while the surface stats looked good (3.19 ERA), the underlying numbers were not as kind with a 29/14 K/BB and a regular season 5.22 xERA/5.36 xFIP (6.62 playoff x/FIP) 2021 Projection: 7/4.28/1.33/134 in 145 IP

371) Kyle Seager SEA, 3B, 33.5 – Strong contact numbers but has consistently posted low BABIP’s, particularly over the past 4 seasons. High launch angle with above average power ensures healthy home run totals. 2021 Projection: 72/26/85/.243/.328/.445/3

372) Eduardo Escobar ARI, 3B, 32.3 – I didn’t fully buy into the 2019 breakout due to the poor Statcast numbers, writing in my 2020 Top 1,000, “Huge season with 35 homers and 118 RBI but mediocre exit velocity numbers (91.1 MPH FB/LD exit velocity) keeps me hesitant from completely buying in.” The exit velocity numbers got even worse this year, dropping to a 89.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, and the power disappeared with only 4 homers in 54 games. 2021 Projection: 74/23/81/.261/.327/.455/3

373) Adam Eaton CHW, OF, 32.4 – A fractured left index finger ended Eaton’s season in September. Career low .260 BABIP was the main cause of Eaton’s down year (75 wRC+). 2021 Projection: 79/15/52/.271/.349/.421/12

374) Jackie Bradley Jr. FA, OF, 31.0 – Career low 22.1% K% which was backed up by a career low 26.1% whiff% led to a career best .283 BA. .343 BABIP helped a bit too. 2021 Projection: 73/19/69/.253/.331/.428/9

375) Yuli Gurriel HOU, 1B, 36.10 – Down year with a .658 OPS, which is always concerning for a 36 year old, but it looks like it mostly due to a .235 BABIP as the underlying numbers were in line with career norms. 2021 Projection: 74/22/82/.281/.325/.467/3

376) Joey Votto CIN, 1B, 37.7 – Changed his approach to hit for more power and it paid off with 11 homers in 54 games. Career low .226 BA was partly due to the approach change and partly due to a career low .235 BABIP. 2021 Projection: 86/23/78/.269/.371/.446/3

377) Brandon Belt SF, 1B, 33.0 – Underwent surgery in October 2020 to remove a bone spur in his right heel, putting his status for Opening Day in doubt. He finally had the power breakout we were all waiting for with a career high 90.7/95.1 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity which led to 9 homers in 51 games. Better late than never. 2021 Projection: 72/22/79/.270/.371/.469/3

378) Miguel Cabrera DET, DH, 37.11 – Exit velocity bounced back to beastly levels at 93.2 MPH which led to 10 homers in 57 games. Whiff% jumped to a career high 31.6% which led to his highest K% (22.1%) since his rookie year. 2021 Projection: 68/24/79/.269/.344/.454/0

379) Carlos Santana KC, 1B, 35.0 – Down year with a .199 BA and .699 OPS, and while most of it could be blamed on a .212 BABIP, his power was also slightly down with a 91.8 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 84/27/82/.245/.365/.450/2

380) Christian Vazquez BOS, C, 30.7 – Backed up his 2019 power breakout with 7 homers in 47 games, but with a 91.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity I would keep expectations in check. Career worst 22.8% K%, and needed a .341 BABIP to buoy his .283 BA. 2021 Projection: 62/20/69/.266/.330/.438/5

381) James McCann NYM, C, 30.9 – Backed up his 2019 power breakout by maintaining strong exit velocity numbers (90.5/94.7 MPH AVG/FB) while also bringing his launch angle back up to 15 degrees. 2021 Projection: 64/21/71/.247/.319/.448/2

382) Mitch Haniger SEA, OF, 30.3 – A ruptured testicle and back injury ended Haniger’s 2019 season in June. He then underwent two separate core surgeries and a back surgery over the off-season which knocked him out for all of 2020. He is expected to be ready to go for 2021, but in what condition is anyone’s guess. 2021 Projection: 74/23/71/.245/.330/.454/5

383) Gregory Polanco PIT, OF, 29.6 – Strikeout rate completely imploded with a career worst 37.4% K% and 43% whiff%. It might have been because he was trying to absolutely demolish the baseball with a 92.9/97 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. Hopefully he can find a happy medium in 2021. 2021 Projection: 76/23/82/.236/.304/.435/8

384) Alex Dickerson SF, OF, 30.10 – Strong side of a platoon power bat with a career .863 OPS vs. righties and .687 OPS vs. lefties. His relatively good feel to hit (17.6% K%) gives him legitimate breakout potential if given a full time job. 2021 Projection: 68/20/67/.279/.349/.481/1

385) Geraldo Perdomo ARI, SS, 20.5 – Elite plate approach transferred to full season ball in 2019 with a 67/70 K/BB in 116 games split between Full-A and High-A. Power hasn’t shown up yet, but at 6’3”, 184 pounds there is certainly more to come. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 87/18/73/.286/.362/.442/16

386) Taylor Trammell SEA, OF, 23.6 – Stats in 14 instructional league games were weak, hitting only .173, but coaches came away impressed with his at-bats and claimed he hit into some bad luck. He did put up a strong .346 OBP and led the team with 6 doubles. 2021 Projection: August-23/5/21/.241/.320/.396/6 Prime Projection: 79/17/71/.258/.332/.428/21

387) Jordyn Adams LAA, OF, 21.5 – I’m gonna do a few extra because in a normal year a bunch of prospects in the top 100 would have graduated already. Adams was a standout at alternate camp, showing the ability to make adjustments against advanced competition and started to get to more of his raw power. He’s a great athlete with plus speed, so news of continued refinement and more power is as good as it gets. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/21/74/.272/.343/.448/19

388) Xavier Edwards TB, 2B/SS, 21.8 – Stop me if you heard this one before, but Edwards has no clear path to playing time in Tampa’s never ending logjam. He has plus speed with elite contact rates and a patient plate approach, but has little to no power projection. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/7/51/.288/.347/.398/26

389) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 20.3 – Showed off his explosive stuff at alternate camp with a fastball that can reach triple digits and the potential for two plus breaking balls. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.75/1.26/190 in 178 IP

390) Luis Campusano SD, C, 22.6 – Smacked a homer and struck out twice in his 1 game MLB debut before hitting the IL with a wrist sprain. His power just started to blossom in 2019, and he’s shown a plus hit tool throughout his minor league career. 2021 Projection: June-38/11/43/.267/.329/.436/0 Prime Projection: 74/22/77/.276/.342/.460/0

391) Quinn Priester PIT, RHP, 20.7 – Priester throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by two potentially plus fastballs (4 and 2 seamer) and a plus curve. He looked good at the alt site, making improvements on his changeup and control/command. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.25/184 in 179 IP

392) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 19.4 – Impressive pro debut in stateside rookie ball in 2019, slashing .312/.407/.510 with 7 homers and a 37/21 K/BB in 42 games. He continued to impress at the alt site, showing off a good feel to hit and at least plus raw power. Alvarez has the chance to be one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 71/25/84/.272/.341/.467/2

393) Bryce Jarvis ARI, RHP, 23.3 – Selected 18th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Jarvis took a major step forward in 2020 with his fastball ticking up into the mid 90’s. He refined his breaking balls to become above average pitches and showed much improved control. He didn’t have the opportunity to prove he can do it for more than 27 IP, but he now has the chance for 4 above average pitches (fastball, curve, slider, change) with above average control/command. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.85/1.26/181 in 172 IP

394) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 15th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Abel is your prototypical projectable high school pitcher at 6’5”, 190 pounds with a potentially plus 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). He throws strikes but he’s more control over command right now. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.80/1.25/192 in 184 IP

395) Carlos Colmenarez TB, SS, 17.4 – At 5’10”, 175 pounds Colmenarez has a quick, compact lefty swing with natural loft that should lead to more power as he ages. He’s hit well in games and is an average runner with above average potential. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 80/22/80/.270/.340/.445/9

396) Robert Hassell SD, OF, 19.8 – Selected 8th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Hassell has the consensus top hit tool in the high school class but hasn’t hit for very much power and doesn’t project for huge power numbers down the line either. A 91 MPH top exit velocity mark at Perfect game events in 2019 isn’t bad, but it’s not great either. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/16/69/.286/.351/.425/15

397) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 19.10 – Struggled at the start of alternate camp against advanced competition, but was one of the most impressive players there by the end of it. Has the potential for average to above average tools across the board. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.267/.341/.456/10

398) Kolten Wong MIL, 2B, 30.6 – Doesn’t offer much power (1 homer in 53 games), but he makes good contact (14.4% K%), gets on base (9.6% BB%) and chips in some steals (5 steals). 2021 Projection: 67/10/48/.270/.348/.398/15

399) Devin Williams MIL, Setup, 26.6 – Best changeup in the game with a -13 run value, 61.1% whiff% and .110 xwOBA. 96.4 MPH fastball ain’t too shabby either. 2021 Projection: 4/3.27/1.01/98/4 in 61 IP

400) Drew Pomeranz SD, Closer Committee, 32.4 – Might share closer duties with Emilio Pagan. Pomeranz backed up his 2019 breakout in 2020 with a 1.45 ERA and 39.7% K%. 2021 Projection: 3/3.23/1.05/83/25 in 65 IP

401) Brad Keller KC, RHP, 25.8 – Has a history of outperforming his peripherals (2.47 ERA vs. 4.52 xERA) but that is a dangerous game to play with such a miniscule 16.3% K% and lack of pinpoint control (career 9.1% BB%). 2021 Projection: 10/4.13/1.31/126 in 165 IP

402) Jesus Sanchez MIA, OF, 23.6 – Even with going 1 for 25 in his MLB debut, Sanchez’ plus power was still able to shine through with an extremely small sample 95.4 MPH exit velocity. 11 strikeouts in 29 PA shows he needs more refinement. 2021 Projection: July-27/9/31/.243/.301/.432/4 Prime Projection: 76/24/83/.259/.329/.463/7

403) Greg Jones TB, SS, 23.1 – Late addition to the alternate site because of Tampa’s crazy depth. Jones is maybe the best athlete in the system with double plus speed and developing power. He’s had strikeout issues in his career (25.7% at Short-A), but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 81/14/60/.255/.332/.408/26

404) Dane Dunning TEX, RHP, 26.4 – Rock solid MLB debut with a pitching line of 3.97/1.12/35/13 in 34 IP. Throws a plus sinker/slider combo which produces high groundball rates (45.1% GB%) and high strikeout rates (9.26 K/9). 2021 Projection: 7/4.18/1.33/126 in 125 IP

405) Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 21.8 – He’s healthy after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2019, and reports from alternate camp were all positive. He’s a flamethrower with prototypical starter size and plus athletisism, but the secondaries are still raw. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 14/3.64/1.18/188 in 174 IP

406) Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 23.2 – Made tremendous strides with his changeup at alternate camp, now giving him the potential for two plus secondaries (curve, change), to go along with his low 90’s heat. 2021 Projection: 3/4.41/1.39/46 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.91/1.25/183 in 181 IP

407) Clarke Schmidt NYY, RHP, 25.1 – Features a high spin rate slider as his knockout pitch which he threw 37.3% of the time in his MLB debut. He compliments that with a 94.8 MPH sinker, 95 MPH 4-seamer and a lesser used changeup. He’ll compete for a rotation spot in the spring. 2021 Projection: 5/4.32/1.35/88 in 86 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.80/1.24/179 in 171 IP

408) Alejandro Kirk TOR, C, 22.5 – Contact skills transferred to the majors in his 9 game MLB debut with a 16% K%. Crushed the ball on the ground with a 97.3 MPH exit velocity, but he didn’t fair as well in the air at 91.6 MPH. 2021 Projection: 48/13/56/.274/.338/.436/1 Prime Projection: 72/19/79/.286/.352/.456/2

409) Robbie Grossman DET, OF, 31.6 – Power broke out with a career high 89 MPH exit velocity, which led to 8 homers in 192 PA. Combine that with some speed (8 stolen bases), a strong K/BB (19.8%/10.9%), and a full time job in Detroit, and Grossman is shaping up to be a nice late round sleeper. 2021 Projection: 76/18/63/.255/.349/.413/10

410) Chris Archer TB, RHP, 32.6 – Underwent surgery to relieve symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome in June and missed all of 2020. He was awful in 2019 (5.40 xERA), but re-signing with Tampa seems like the best possible team for a bounce back. 2021 Projection: 7/4.48/1.36/163 in 145 IP

411) Alex Reyes STL, RHP, 26.7 – Showed monster stuff (97.5 MPH) with monster control issues (6.4 BB/9). He’s coming to camp preparing as a starter, but ultimate role is still likely a late inning pen arm. 2021 Projection: 3/3.87/1.30/74/12 in 60 IP

412) Rougned Odor TEX, 2B, 27.2 – Batting average keeps getting worse with a new career low .167 BA. Exit velocity plummeted to 86 MPH, as did his BB% (4.7%). while K% remained elevated at 31.8%. He also gotten slower with a career worst 27 ft/sec sprint speed. 2021 Projection: 74/26/78/.228/.296/.426/7

413) Edwin Rios LAD, 3B, 26.11 – Make it two years in a row that Rios has absolutely mashed in very limited duty (12 homers and a .972 OPS in 139 career PA). He’s not a good defender and his whiff% remains in the danger zone (36.1%), but the power is unquestionable. 2021 Projection: 52/19/57/.235/.294/.450/1

414) Nico Hoerner CHC, 2B/SS, 23.11 – Struggled mightily in 2020, slashing .222/.312/.259 with 0 homers, 3 steals and a 24/12 K/BB in 126 PA. K% rose 5.6% to 19%. There were some silver linings, as his exit velocity rose 1.9 MPH to a not terrible 87.5 MPH, and BB% jumped 5.8% to 9.5%. 2021 Projection: 62/8/40/.267/.331/.396/11

415) Brayan Rocchio CLE, SS, 20.4 – Plus contact rates (13.6% K% at Short-A) with plus speed (14 steals in 69 games) and developing power (5 homers). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 85/16/69/.283/.338/.435/23

416) Liover Peguero PIT, SS, 20.3 – Struggled initially at alternate camp against advanced competition but was able to make adjustments and hold his own by the end of it. He’s an excellent athlete with plus speed and has shown an advanced feel to hit. 90 MPH average exit velocity in 2019 shows the power potential is in there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 84/20/73/.275/.336/.441/17

417) Bryan Reynolds PIT, OF, 26.2 – Could not back up his fantastic MLB debut in 2019 (.880 OPS). Exit velocity dropped 2 MPH to 87.5 MPH, K% rose 5.7% to 27.4%, and BABIP cratered to .231, all of which conspired against him to produce a triple-slash of .189/.275/.357. 2021 Projection: 73/17/66/.261/.333/.428/5

418) David Fletcher LAA, SS/2B, 26.10 – Purely a batting average play with elite contact rates (10.9%) and a career .292 batting average. 86.7 MPH FB/LD exit velocity shows very little power potential and he’s only attempted 17 steals in 283 career games. 2021 Projection: 81/7/57/.295/.352/.398/7

419) Chris Taylor LAD, 2B/OF, 30.7 – Playing time is still the biggest question mark as Taylor continues to display an average power/speed combo with patience and a batting average that won’t hurt you. 2021 Projection: 79/19/77/.260/.340/.460/9

420) Garrett Richards BOS, RHP, 32.11 – The stuff looked good in his first “full” season back from Tommy John surgery, showing off a 95.1 MPH 4-seamer and a plus slider that put up a .264 xwOBA. The overall results were mixed with a 4.03 ERA and a move to the bullpen in the 2nd half of September. 2021 Projection: 8/4.12/1.30/137 in 145 IP

421) Mauricio Dubon SF, OF, 26.8 – 27.3 ft/sec sprint speed and going 2 for 5 on steal attempts in 54 games is not a great sign for his future stolen base totals. Below average power with an above average hit tool. 2021 Projection: 65/13/53/.271/.328/.406/13

422) Elvis Andrus OAK, SS, 32.7 – Trade to Oakland opens up a full time job for him. Career low 26.3 ft/sec sprint speed is not a good sign as he gets deeper into his 30’s, although he has never been the fastest guy so hopefully the steals don’t dry up completely. 2021 Projection: 76/11/59/.255/.306/.387/16

423) Stephen Piscotty OAK, OF, 30.2 – K% skyrocketed 9.6% to 31% which led to his worst season in the Majors (73 wRC+). 2021 Projection: 69/20/73/.251/.320/.446/4

424) Avisail Garcia MIL, OF, 29.10 – Career worst 87.4 MPH exit velocity led to a down year (81 wRC+). He did notch a career high 9.7% BB%, so there is something to build on if the exit velocity pops back up in 2021. 2021 Projection: 68/21/74/.251/.328/.436/7

425) Starlin Castro WASH, 2B, 31.0 – Underwent surgery to repair a broken right wrist in August which limited Castro to 16 games. His launch angle did rise considerably to 16.8 degrees, but it’s too small a sample to really extract anything from that. 2021 Projection: 69/20/74/.272/.317/.440/3

426) Niko Goodrum DET, 2B/SS, 29.1 – The power/speed combo shined through with 5 homers and 7 steals in 43 games, but the strikeout rate mushroomed 9.3% to 38.5% leading to a .184 BA. 2021 Projection: 65/19/73/.232/.318/.428/13

427) Taijuan Walker FA, RHP, 28.8 – Underlying stats (4.87 xERA/4.82 xFIP) don’t back up the excellent pitching line of 2.70/1.16/50/19 in 53.1 IP. On the plus side, his stuff looks all the way back after Tommy John surgery and then a shoulder injury essentially wiped out all of 2018-2019. 2021 Projection: 8/4.24/1.32/137 in 150 IP

428) Sam Hilliard COL, OF, 27.1 – Couldn’t maintain the reasonable contact rates he managed in 2019 with his K% soaring to 36.8% and BA dropping to .210. Even with Dahl gone there is no guarantee of consistent playing time. 2021 Projection: 58/18/55/.238/.302/.439/10

429) Isaac Paredes DET, 3B, 22.1 – Absolutely destroyed Mexican Winter League, slashing ..379/.480/.579 with 4 homers and a 12/27 K/BB in 42 games. His MLB debut didn’t go as well with a .568 OPS in 108 PA. He’s a plus hitter with an advanced plate approach and average power. 2021 Projection: 66/15/63/.258/.319/.403/2 Prime Projection: 83/21/77/.282/.350/.461/2

430) Dean Kremer BAL, RHP, 25.3 – The strikeout stuff transferred to the majors with 22 K’s and an above average 26.4% whiff% in 18.2 IP. He doesn’t overpower batters with a 92.8 MPH fastball and got hit hard with a 90.8 MPH exit velocity against, but his K upside makes him a nice late round target. 2021 Projection: 9/4.32/1.36/157 in 155 IP

431) Kris Bubic KC, LHP, 23.8 – Couldn’t maintain the extreme strikeout rates from the minors (11.4 K/9) in his MLB debut (8.82 K/9). Bubic throws a 91.4 MPH fastball with a potentially plus changeup and a curve that put up a .220 xwOBA in 2020. 2021 Projection: 9/4.37/1.36/161 in 157 IP

432) Adbert Alzolay CHC, RHP, 26.1 – Threw his plus slider 39.8% of the time, putting up a .155 xwOBA with the pitch, and while he threw his changeup only 8% of the time, it showed potential with a 58.3% whiff%. Control/command is an issue with a 14.9% BB%. 2021 Projection: 8/4.42/1.41/143 in 145 IP

433 Jon Gray COL, RHP, 29.5 – Shoulder inflammation ended Gray’s season in early September after a terrible 39 IP (6.69 ERA). Velocity was down 2 MPH on the 4 seamer. The good news in that he will be a free agent after this season. 2021 Projection: 8/4.44/1.37/150 in 150 IP

434) Adrian Houser MIL, RHP, 28.2 – Velocity dropped 1.1 MPH on the sinker to 93.2 MPH and couldn’t maintain the 25.3% K% he put up in 2019 with it dropping to 17.9%. It led to a 5.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. 2021 Projection: 9/4.23/1.32/134 in 150 IP

435) Josh Lindblom MIL, RHP, 33.10 – 5.16 ERA wasn’t great but the underlying numbers looked a bit better than that with a 6 pitch mix that put up a respectable 27.2% K% and a 4.01 xERA. 2021 Projection: 9/4.33/1.29/165 in 170 IP

436) Tanner Houck BOS, RHP, 24.9 – Slider was dominant in his 17 inning MLB debut a .182 xwOBA and 47.2% whiff%. Control/command are below average (14.3% BB%), and needs to further develop his splitter. 2021 Projection: 8/4.44/1.41/143 in 150 IP

437) Shane Baz TB, RHP, 21.10 – Improved his changeup at alternate camp but it is still well behind his upper 90’s fastball and at least plus slider. How much he can improve his below average control/command will determine his ultimate upside. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/3.83/1.31/158 in 152 IP

438) Heriberto Hernandez TB, 1B/OF, 21.4 – 19 years old is on the old side to get excited by rookie ball numbers, but he did impress with double plus bat speed, a .344/.433/.646 triple slash, 11 homers and a 57/27 K/BB in 50 games in 2019. Tampa obviously liked what they saw by targeting him in their trade with Texas. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/23/78/.268/.340/.472/3

439) Dallas Keuchel CHW, LHP, 33.3 – 1.99 ERA in 63.1 IP, but it came with an 8 year low in K% (16.3%) and a career low velocity (87.2 MPH sinker). 2021 Projection: 10/4.14/1.30/133 in 170 IP

440) Domingo German NYY, RHP, 28.8 – Was suspended for all of 2020 and role is up in the air for 2021. He throws a 4 pitch mix leaning heavily on his plus curveball. 2021 Projection: 8/4.32/1.27/132 in 130 IP

441) Shane McClanahan TB, LHP, 23.11 – Throws mid 90’s heat with two plus breaking balls and an improving changeup. Control took a big step forward in 2019, bringing his walk rate down to 3.4 BB/9. May never rack up innings, especially pitching for Tampa, but the upside is considerable. 2021 Projection: July-2/3.93/1.31/37 in 33 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.72/1.25/172 in 157 IP

442) Spencer Turnbull DET, RHP, 28.6 – Hard throwing (94.8 MPH sinker), groundball pitcher (50% GB%) with control issues (12% BB%) 2021 Projection: 9/4.41/1.37/145 in 155 IP

443) DJ Stewart BAL, OF, 27.4 – Power and patience exploded with a 4.9 degree increase in launch angle (17.8 degrees), 3.5 MPH increase in exit velocity (91.4 MPH), and 8% increase in BB% (17.9%), but strikeout rate exploded along with them (33.9%). It resulted in 7 homers and a .193/.355/.455 triple-slash in 31 games. Career .683 OPS vs. lefties (.535 OPS in 2020) could limit him to a platoon role. 2021 Projection: 65/21/72/.233/.331/.447/4

444) Daulton Jefferies OAK, RHP, 25.8 – With news that Puk will be in the 2021 starting rotation, Jefferies will be moved to next man up, and he’s sure to rack up innings with Oakland’s injury prone rotation. He got roughed up in his 2 inning MLB debut (22.50 ERA), but more importantly his stuff looked good with a 94.5 MPH fastball and 5 pitch mix. He’s shown plus control and command in the minors (1.0 BB/9 in 2019) with his changeup as the money pitch. 2021 Projection: 7/4.26/1.28/116 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.85/1.22/160 in 160 IP

445) Craig Kimbrel CHC, Closer, 32.10 – BB% skyrocketed to 17.4% which led to a 1.44 WHIP and a 5.22 ERA. 2021 Projection: 2/3.71/1.26/90/29 in 58 IP

446) Richard Rodriguez PIT, Closer, 31.1 – Slider put up an insane 63.6% whiff% en route to a career high 36.6% K% and 5.4% BB%. 2021 Projection: 4/3.45/1.17/76/28 in 65 IP

447) Ryan McMahon COL, 2B/3B/1B, 26.4 – Career worst 34.2% K% led to a .215 BA. Hits it hard with a 90.1 MPH exit velocity, but a 50.5% GB% will put a cap on his power production. Arenado trade opens up playing time. 2021 Projection: 63/20/68/.242/.318/.431/3

448) Jake Diekman OAK, Closer, 34.2 – Favorite for the closer job with Hendricks gone. Diekman has a dominant fastball/slider combo that puts up big strikeout and walk totals. 2021 Projection: 3/3.42/1.28/79/28 in 61 IP

449) Daniel Vogelbach MIL, 1B, 28.4 – Had a great September for Milwaukee after being picked up off waivers, slashing .328/.418/.569 with 4 homers and an 18/8 K/BB in 67 PA. Still had only a .209 BA on the season and will need a DH to hold value. 2021 Projection: 51/18/54/.236/.348/.446/0

450) JaCoby Jones DET, OF, 29.1 – A fractured left hand wiped out the 2nd half of Jones season. He was in the midst of a surface stat breakout (127 wRC+), but the underlying numbers were the same as years past and his speed declined with a career low 27 ft/sec sprint speed and 1 steal in 30 games. 2021 Projection: 68/18/65/.238/.307/.431/7

451) JP Crawford SEA, SS, 26.3 – Brought K% down to 16.8% and continued to post high walk rates, but doesn’t hit the ball hard enough (85.8 MPH) or have enough speed (26.6 ft/sec sprint speed) to take advantage of the plus plate approach skills. 2021 Projection: 83/13/52/.251/.336/.377/9

452) Harrison Bader STL, OF, 26.10 – Continues to struggle vs righties (.668 OPS), but excellent CF defense keeps him on the field. Speed (29.4 ft/sec sprint speed), patience (10.4% BB%), and pop (15.7 degree launch + 94.4 MPH FB/LD exit velo) are all ready to explode if he can make improvements vs same side pitchers. 2021 Projection: 68/16/53/.240/.332/.423/13

453) Lewin Diaz MIA, 1B, 24.4 – Weak MLB debut with an 11 wRC+, 29.3%/4.9% K%/BB%, and an 86.4 MPH exit velocity, but the 41 PA sample is too small to draw any conclusions. He’s shown a good feel to hit throughout his minor league career and has plus raw power that he just started to tap into in 2019. 2021 Projection: July-26/9/31/.248/.302/.425/0 Prime Projection: 67/24/78/.271/.329/.462/1

454) Sherten Apostel TEX, 3B, 22.1 – Didn’t do much in his MLB debut with 2 hits in 21 PA, but the power still shined through on statcast with an 88.8/96.5 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. The 50% whiff% shows the risk. 2021 Projection: August-18/6/21/.225/.298/.416/1 Prime Projection: 73/28/85/.247/.339/.481/4

455) Cal Quantrill CLE, RHP, 26.2 – Will compete for the 5th starter job, and there isn’t a better place to be for a pitcher than Cleveland as they seem to have the magic touch. 1.84/1.09/13/2 pitching line in 14.2 IP in Cleveland debut does nothing to quell that hope. 2021 Projection: 7/4.10/1.28/126 in 135 IP

456) Michael Chavis BOS, 1B/OF, 25.8 – Was not able to build off a solid MLB debut in 2019. Whiff% remained far too high (38.3%) and BB% dropped 3% to 5.1%. He hits the ball hard (88.3 MPH exit velocity), but not hard enough to overcome the poor plate approach numbers. Poor defense is another thing he will have to overcome to remain in the lineup long term. 2021 Projection: 45/14/47/.233/.298/.423/3

457) Brent Rooker MIN, OF, 26.5 – Strong 21 PA MLB debut, slashing .316/.381/.579 with a 5/0 K/BB and an 89.1/98.8 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. It’s nice to see the power show up, but that wasn’t really in question, and the sample is too small to read anything into the 23.8% strikeout rate. 2021 Projection: 38/12/43/.242/.320/.451/1 Prime Projection: 67/25/81/.255/.342/.493/2

458) Alexander Canario SF, OF, 20.11 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn left labrum in November 2020. He received high marks at alternate camp by refining his plate approach and maturing as a hitter, which is good to hear considering the raw talent and plus power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/29/88/.251/.331/.492/10

459) Austin Wells NYY, C, 21.9 – Selected 28th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the lefty hitting Wells is an offensive minded catcher with a patient approach and power to all fields. College home run totals don’t exactly jump out at you (14 homers in 112 games including the Cape) and there are strikeout issues (103 K’s), but the Yankee Stadium short porch should help the power play up and his ability to hit to all fields gives him the chance to hit for average even with high strikeout totals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/24/79/.258/.343/.454/5

460) Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 10th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Detmers is a 6’2” lefty with plus command over low 90’s heat and a deadly curveball. He’s polish over stuff, but it didn’t stop him from piling up K’s in college (19.6 K/9 in 22 IP in 2020). Change has the potential to be above average while the slider lags behind. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.26/192 in 184 IP

461) Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C, 19.4 – Selected 26th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Soderstrom is an offensive minded catcher with the potential to hit for both average and power, but is not a lock to stick behind the plate. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/23/76/.268/.335/.451/4

462) Yoelqui Cespedes CHW, OF, 23.6 – Recently packed on muscle weight and revamped his swing in order to get more power out of his 5’9”, 205 pound frame. He’s a plus runner and he has the bloodlines, but is mostly still a mystery. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/19/71/.255/.323/.428/15

463) Pedro Leon HOU, OF, 22.10 – Leon is an explosive athlete who has dominated in Cuba over two seasons, slashing .359/.420/.678 with 21 homers, 8 steals and a 46/20 K/BB in 65 games. He doesn’t have a long professional track record and the hit tool is questionable, but the upside is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/22/71/.243/.326/.443/12

464) Pedro Pineda OAK, OF, 17.7 – Pineda has possibly the highest upside in the international class with a plus power/speed combo and a quick bat that is geared for flyballs. He’s had some swing and miss problems and is still raw at the plate, so the risk is high. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.248/.327/.458/15

465) Misael Urbina MIN, OF, 18.11 – Proved his mature plate approach and plus contact ability will translate against advanced competition at instructs. He’s your prototypical top of the order bat. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/15/63/.282/.351/.434/21

466) Maximo Acosta TEX, SS, 18.5 – Acosta is known for his advanced plate approach and feel to hit with the potential for above average speed and power. The skills are there for him to fly up prospect lists with a good pro debut. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/21/81/.277/.339/.448/16

467) Reginald Preciado CHC, SS, 17.10 – Preciado performed well at instructs against much older competition. He is 6’4”, 185 pounds with a consistent track record of hitting, and his projectable frame gives him the chance to grow into plus power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/25/85/.274/.346/.473/6

468) Ethan Hankins CLE, RHP, 21.10 – Continued to refine his secondaries at alternate camp which is the key to unlock his full potential. He’s 6’6”, 200 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and plus athleticism. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.28/181 in 173 IP

469) Brice Turang MIL, SS, 21.4 – Turang came to the alt site with added strength and started to hit the ball harder. He is a prototypical leadoff hitter with a good feel to hit, plus plate approach, and plus speed. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/15/58/.273/.345/.411/23

470) Peyton Burdick MIA, OF, 24.1 – Impressed at alternate camp with his prodigious power and good feel to hit. He hit 10 homers with a 91 MPH average exit velocity in 63 games at Full-A in 2019. He was a popular sleeper pick coming into 2020 and he seemed to live up to the hype if the reports are accurate. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/25/82/.256/.332/.464/9

471) Hudson Head PIT, OF, 20.0 – Hamstring injury limited Head in 2020. He is an aggressive player with plus speed and plus bat speed that generates the potential for plus power at peak. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/20/76/.261/.332/.432/23

472) Chris Rodriguez LAA, RHP, 22.8 – Stress reaction in his back which required surgery in May knocked out all of his 2018 and all but 9.1 innings in 2019. His stuff is absolutely nasty when he is the mound with the potential for 4 plus pitches headlined by mid 90’s heat. High risk, high reward prospect. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/3.89/1.27/152 in 145 IP

473) Kyle Muller ATL, LHP, 23.6 – Throws a double plus mid 90’s fastball with high spin rates, but needs to improve his secondaries and his control to remain a starter. 2021 Projection: 1/4.51/1.42/29 in 28 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.92/1.33/175 in 168 IP

474) Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 23.3 – Manoah is 6’6”, 260 pounds with a plus mid 90’s fastball, a potentially plus slider, and a developing change that he focused on improving at the alt site. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.89/1.27/176 in 169 IP

475) Blake Walston ARI, LHP, 19.9 – Walston is a projectable 6’5”, 195 pounds with a 4 pitch mix headlined by a fastball than can already reach the mid 90’s and a plus slider. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.26/179 in 173 IP

476) Aaron Sabato MIN, 1B, 21.10 – Selected 27th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Sabato is a 6’2”, 230 pound 1B only prospect who smashed 25 homers in 83 games in the ACC. He’s a patient hitter with some swing and miss concerns. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/25/81/.252/.337/.469/0

477) Rece Hinds CIN, 3B, 20.7 – Hinds has at least double plus power, and with news of an improved hit tool at the alt site and instructs, he has a chance to fly up prospect lists in 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/28/77/.242/.314/.473/2

478) Cade Cavalli WASH, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 22nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Cavalli has a prototypical starter build at 6’4”, 226 pounds with mid 90’s heat, two swing and miss breaking balls, and a developing changeup. He’s had injury issues which has prevented him from pitching very much and there are control problems too, so the risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.06/1.33/151 in 156 IP

479) Matt Barnes BOS, Closer, 30.10 – Control is an issue with a 13.7% BB% and while his K% is still good, it dropped 8.2% to 30.4% 2021 Projection: 4/3.94/1.35/91/28 in 63 IP

480) Myles Straw HOU, OF, 26.5 – Light hitting, speedy fourth outfielder who is currently slated to be Houston’s starting CF. 2021 Projection: 73/4/41/.252/.328/.353/22

481) Cesar Hernandez CLE, 2B, 30.11 – Didn’t attempt a single steal in 58 games which is not a good sign as he enters his 30’s. 2021 Projection: 77/13/62/.274/.346/.403/7

482) Orlando Arcia MIL, SS, 26.8 – Career best 16.9% K% and 96 wRC+. Power/speed aren’t going to win you any titles, but he could be serviceable in deeper leagues. 2021 Projection: 68/15/66/.265/.320/.402/8

483) Jon Berti MIA, 2B/OF, 31.2 – Whiff% dropped 5% to a career best 19.6% and BB% soared 7% to a career high 15.4%. Remained one of the fastest players in the game with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed and 9 steals in 34 games. 2021 Projection: 68/8/51/.270/.351/.389/23

484) Jose Leclerc TEX, Closer, 27.3 – Shoulder strain ended his season after 2 IP. When healthy, Leclerc has explosive stuff that has produced high strikeout and walk rates. 2021 Projection: 3/3.81/1.29/84/27 in 58 IP

485) Hunter Harvey BAL, Closer, 26.5 – Injuries reared their ugly head again with elbow soreness limiting him to 8.2 IP. He is the favorite to close in 2021 with his 97.3 MPH fastball. 2021 Projection: 3/4.11/1.26/59/24 in 57 IP

486) Brendan McKay TB, LHP, 25.4 – Underwent shoulder surgery in August. There is no timetable, but it’s doubtful he will be ready for the start of 2021 at the very least. Before the injury, he showed plus command of a 4 pitch mix, but none of his pitches were standout. 2021 Projection: 2/4.21/1.28/46 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.77/1.22/171 in 167 IP

487) Yoshi Tsutsugo TB, 3B/OF, 29.4 – The power and patience translated with a 14.1% BB%, 8 homers, 17.2 degree launch, and 90.2/95.2 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity in 185 PA. .197 BA dropped his overall line, but a lot of that was likely bad luck (.230 BABIP), and a 23.2% whiff% is actually above average. 2021 Projection: 63/24/66/.248/.349/.465/1

488) CJ Cron FA, 1B, 31.3 – Underwent season ending knee surgery in August after playing in only 13 games. Could be a battle for playing time depending on who he signs with. 2021 Projection: 53/23/62/.247/.314/.465/1

489) Josh Naylor CLE, OF, 23.10 – Made excellent contact (11.5% K%) but weak exit velocity (86.8 MPH) led to 4 extra base hits in 104 PA. He hit the ball much harder last year (89.6 MPH) and was known for plus raw power in the minors, so the ingredients are there for a possible breakout. 2021 Projection: 62/15/67/.268/.335/.429/3

490) Trevor Rosenthal FA, Closer, 30.10 – Major bounce back season with a pitching line of 1.90/0.85/38/8/11 saves in 23.2 IP. He throws 97.9 MPH heat with a plus slider. 2021 Projection: 3/3.58/1.31/78/28 in 55 IP

491) Chris Martin ATL, Closer Committee, 34.10 – Should have at least a share of the closer job. Martin killed it in 2020 with a pitching line of 1.00/0.61/20/3 in 18 IP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.35/1.11/66/25 in 57 IP

492) Luis Medina NYY, RHP, 21.11 – Dominated in the Puerto Rico Winter League with a 15/2 K/BB, 3 hits, and 0 ER in 7 IP. Continuing to improve control/command will be key as he has some of the best swing and miss stuff in the minors with upper 90’s heat and the potential for two plus secondaries (curve, change). ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.33/189 in 168 IP

493) Khris Davis TEX, DH, 33.3 – Turned into a short side of a platoon player in 2020 due to struggles vs. righies (.513 OPS in 2020 and .589 OPS in 2019). 2021 Projection: 61/25/71/.231/.316/.472/0

494) Mike Minor KC, LHP, 33.2 – Velocity was down 1.9 MPH on the 4-seamer to a career low 90.6 MPH, and it resulted in a 5.56 ERA in 56.2 IP. On the plus side, Minor was still able to miss bats with a 27.3% whiff% and 9.8 K/9. 2021 Projection: 10/4.26/1.25/161 in 170 IP

495) Willi Castro DET, SS, 24.0 – Power broke out with 6 homers in 36 games but a 85.3/89.1 MPH average/FB exit velocity leaves me extremely hesitant to buy in. 2021 Projection: 69/15/67/.256/.311/.413/7

496) Yandy Diaz TB, 3B, 29.8 – Took his groundball ways to another level with a 66% GB% and a negative 7.6 degree launch angle. Notched career highs in K% (12.3%) and BB% (16.7%), but exit velocity dropped 3.4 MPH to 88.3 MPH. 2021 Projection: 73/15/56/.276/.359/.415/2

497) Danny Santana TEX, 1B/OF, 30.5 – Arm issues tanked his season and ultimately underwent a form of Tommy John surgery in September with a 7-8 month timetable. He was still hitting the ball hard in the 15 games he did play in (90.9 MPH exit velocity), but his speed fell (26.8 ft/sec sprint speed) and K% skyrocketed (38.1%) 2021 Projection: 32/10/34/.235/.295/.413/7

498) Yasel Antuna WASH, SS, 21.6 – Missed almost all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery and leg injuries, but was able to show off his monster potential at the alt site in 2020, impressing with his hitting ability and power potential. Antuna has a chance to be a big riser in 2021. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/23/81/.271/.338/.457/8

499) Dylan Cease CHW, RHP, 25.3 – 4.01 ERA was far better than he deserved with a 44/34 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP and 6.65 xERA in 58.1 IP. 25.3% whiff% wasn’t nearly as bad as his 17.3% K%, and velocity hit a career high 97.5 MPH, so there are some silver linings to take away. 2021 Projection: 8/4.38/1.40/147 in 150 IP

500) David Peterson NYM, LHP, 25.7 – 3.44 ERA outpaced his 4.39 xERA, but overall it was a solid MLB debut for Peterson showing the ability to induce groundballs (44.4% GB%) and weak contact (87.4 MPH exit velo against). 19.5% K% is weak, but a 26.2% whiff% shows the potential for more. 2021 Projection: 9/4.36/1.36/133 in 150 IP

501) Aaron Schunk COL, 3B, 23.8 – Schunk’s game power broke out his junior year in the SEC, hitting .339 with 15 homers and a 29/14 K/BB in 57 games. He kept it going at Short-A in his pro debut, slashing .306/.370/.503 with 6 homers and a 25/14 K/BB in 46 games. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 77/20/76/.273/.335/.431/6

502) Michael Toglia COL, 1B, 22.7 – Switch hitter who is stronger from the left side, but made adjustments to his right handed swing at alternate camp which resulted in 3 homers from the right side to close out the “season.” ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 73/26/84/.252/.334/.466/2

503) Jackson Kowar KC, RHP, 24.6 – Double plus changeup with a mid 90’s fastball, but breaking ball lags behind. 2021 Projection: 3/4.41/1.38/63 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.96/1.32/168 in 174 IP

504) Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Selected 14th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Foscue has the potential for plus hit but doesn’t have big power or speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/19/71/.276/.339/.434/5

505) Ed Howard CHC, SS, 19.8 – Selected 16th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Howard’s best skill is his plus shortstop defense. The bat isn’t as strong, although he has hit well against top competition and will certainly add power at 6’2”, 185 pounds. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/20/77/.264/.335/.444/9

506) Nick Bitsko TB, RHP, 18.10 – Selected 24th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Bitsko is one of the youngest players in the draft due to reclassifying and coming out a year early. At 6’4”, 220 pounds he has prototypical starter size with a fastball that has touched 98 MPH and features a nasty curveball as his money pitch. He throws strikes and shows good feel on his lesser used changeup. Underwent surgery to repair a labrum issue in December and is expected to miss some of 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/181 in 178 IP

507) Isaiah Greene NYM, OF, 19.7 – Selected 69th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Greene is a 6’1”, 180 pound lefty with plus speed and a swing geared for contact. He’s a great athlete with room to fill out his frame, so the power may come. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/18/71/.267/.333/.431/20

508) Freddy Peralta MIL, Setup, 24.10 – Served in the long man role but could easily find his way back into the rotation at some point in 2021. He’s always struck a ton of guys out, but he took it to the next level in 2020 with career highs in whiff% (up 10.3% to 39.8%) and K/9 (14.4). 2021 Projection: 5/3.87/1.24/129 in 91 IP

509) Brusdar Graterol LAD, Setup, 22.7 – The big stuff was there in 23.1 IP with a 99.3 MPH sinker and plus slider, but the strikeouts weren’t with a 15.2% whiff% and 5.01 K/9. The whiff% was weak in 2019 too at 8.7% in 9.2 IP, so it might not be a complete aberration. 2021 Projection: 3/3.73/1.16/61 in 67 IP

510) Kyle Wright ATL, RHP, 25.9 – The great stuff doesn’t match the results with another rough season, putting up a pitching line of 5.21/1.55/30/24 in 38 IP. He’s still only pitched 63.2 innings in his career, so it’s too early to throw in the towel. 2021 Projection: 7/4.59/1.41/117 in 130 IP

511) Wilmer Flores SF, 1B/2B, 29.8 – FB/LD exit velocity jumped 2.8 MPH to 92.1 MPH en route to 12 homers and a career high .247 ISO. It came at the cost of some swing and miss with his K% jumping 6% to a still very good 16.9%. 2021 Projection: 63/18/67/.274/.325/.470/1

512) Jose Garcia CIN, SS, 23.0 – Struggled across the board in his 68 PA MLB debut with poor marks in exit velocity (86.6 MPH), K% (38.2%), BB% (1.5%), and speed (26.7 ft/sec). His bat wasn’t ready at all. 2021 Projection: 66/13/58/.248/.297/.391/8 Prime Projection: 72/18/74/.263/.318/.416/9

513) Jared Oliva PIT, OF, 25.4 – Went 3 for 16 with 6 strikeouts in his MLB debut, but statcast was kinder to him with a 29 ft/sec sprint speed and 93.2 MPH exit velocity. Plus speed and defense are his calling cards. 2021 Projection: 38/4/32/.248/.310/.385/9 Prime Projection: 77/13/52/.263/.328/.401/24

514) Ty France SEA, 2B, 26.9 – Exit velocity plummeted 3.2 MPH to 85.7 MPH leading to only 4 homers in 155 PA. .390 BABIP buoyed a .305 BA. 2021 Projection: 52/16/57/.268/.329/.435/1

515) Brent Honeywell TB, RHP, 26.0 – Underwent a 4th elbow surgery in December 2020 which Tampa is calling a minor procedure. He had surgery in June 2019 to repair a fractured right elbow which he suffered while rehabbing from 2017 Tommy John surgery. The elbow problems are making it hard to keep the faith. 2021 Projection: July-2/4.45/1.36/28 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 7/4.11/1.31/138 in 138 IP

516) Jackson Rutledge WASH, RHP, 22.0 – Rutledge is 6’8”, 250 pounds with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and the potential for three quality secondaries, most notably his plus slider. He worked on improving his control and command in 2020. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.76/1.28/167 in 165 IP

517) Miguel Hiraldo TOR, SS, 20.7 – Power took a step forward in 2019, hitting 7 homers in 56 games in the Appy League while maintaining strong contact numbers (14.1%). He was considered one of the better hitters in the 2017 international class and has lived up to his reputation. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.272/.334/.458/7

518) Kameron Misner MIA, OF, 23.3 – Physical specimen at 6’4”, 219 pounds, Misner has a plus power/speed combo but currently has more raw power than game power. He is ultra patient at the plate, sometimes to his detriment. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 82/23/76/.256/.342/.448/16

519) Braxton Garrett MIA, LHP, 23.8 – Showed off his dominant curveball in his 7.2 IP MLB debut with a 50.7 whiff%, and the change played well too (40% whiff%), but his 89.6 MPH fastball got absolutely crushed with a 1.133 slugging against. 2021 Projection: 4/4.38/1.34/76 in 81 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.96/1.31/169 in 173 IP

520) Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS, 19.1 – Has hit really well at instructs but without much power, and at 5’10”, 155 pounds there is a question as to how much power potential there is down the line. He does have speed and it’s tough not to love the bloodlines. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/14/66/.283/.352/.419/20

521) Ryan Jeffers MIN, C, 23.10 – Stepped in when Mitch Garver went down and he took advantage of the opportunity, slashing .273/.355/.436 with 3 homers and a 91.6/99.4 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. 30.6% K% was high, but his minor league numbers show the potential for that to come down. 2021 Projection: 36/10/38/.247/.323/.431/0 Prime Projection: 64/23/69/.261/.337/.462/1

522) Seth Beer ARI, 1B, 24.7 – The DH will be crucial for Beer’s playing time projections. Even with a DH, we’ve seen players like this struggle to get playing time even if they rake. 2021 Projection: July-23/10/28/.254/.325/.456/0 Prime Projection: 63/26/75/.269/.338/.483/1

523) Keibert Ruiz LAD, C, 22.8 – Focused on increasing his power production at alternate camp, and it paid off immediately with him uncorking a dinger in his 2 game MLB debut. He has plus hitting ability with elite contact rates, so increased power can take him to the next level.. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 68/17/64/.280/.331/.422/0

524) Mark Vientos NYM, 3B, 21.4 – Came to alternate camp showing increased strength and the ability to hit the ball out of the park going the other way. He’s 6’4”, 185 pounds and was already smoking the ball with a 91 MPH exit velocity in 2019, so the power potential is considerable. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/28/85/.254/.326/.477/3

525) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 21.5 – Showed up to alternate camp in the “best shape of his life” and continued to show off his all fields power and selective plate approach. How much the hit tool can improve will dictate his ceiling. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/26/83/.254/.341/.473/2

526) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 23.7 – Has one of the best changeups in the minors and now his fastball ticked up into the mid 90’s at alternate camp. He’s had control problems throughout his career, and will need to prove he can hold that velocity over the course of a full season. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/3.90/1.32/176 in 164

527) Sam Huff TEX, C, 23.3 – The power was not undersold as Huff smashed 3 homers with a 100.8 MPH FB/LD exit velocity in his 33 PA MLB debut. The strikeouts weren’t undersold either as he notched a 40.7% whiff%, while a .471 BABIP buoyed his .355 BA. 2021 Projection: 33/12/39/.231/.291/.429/1 Prime Projection: 62/25/77/.242/.309/.453/3

528) Corey Dickerson MIA, OF, 31.10 – Exit velocity dropped 1.6 MPH to a well below average 85.5 MPH which led to a .258 BA. 2021 Projection: 74/19/63/.275/.326/.446/4

529) Garrett Cooper MIA, 1B, 30.3 – Posted career bests in K% (23.3%) and ISO (.217). He doesn’t hit that many fly balls (28.1% FB%), but he has consistently produced high BABIP’s (career .358 BABIP). 2021 Projection: 66/18/64/.268/.337/.444/1

530) Adam Duvall FA, OF, 32.7 – He mashes but it comes with playing time concerns and a low BA and OBP. 2021 Projection: 53/22/61/.240/.306/.481/1

531) Enrique Hernandez BOS, 2B/OF, 29.7 – Makes good contact (20.9% K%), hits the ball hard (88.5 MPH exit velocity), and hits it in the air (16.2 degree launch angle). He’ll have the first shot to hold down the 2B job in Boston. 2021 Projection: 61/17/63/.243/.314/.444/3

532) Chad Pinder OAK, 2B/OF, 29.0 – Continues to absolutely smash the ball with a 92.3/96.8 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. Notched career bests in K% (21.3%),BB% (8.2%), and launch angle (13.7 degrees). 2021 Projection: 58/18/63/.248/.312/.448/0

533) Luis Urias MIL, 3B/2B, 23.10 – GB% spiked back up to 62.3% after dropping to 49.1% in 2019, and strikeout rate jumped 4.2% to 26.7%. It led to a poor season with 0 homers and a .239 BA in 120 PA. 2021 Projection: 57/11/53/.256/.332/.399/5

534) Shogo Akiyama CIN, OF, 33.0 – Poor MLB debut with 0 homers and a .245 BA, but there were some positive takeaways. 18.6%/13.7% K%/BB% is very strong and he showed a willingness to run with 7 steals in 54 games. He hits at the top of the order in the strong side of a platoon role. 2021 Projection: 63/10/46/.268/.351/.401/14

535) Colin Moran PIT, 1B, 28.6 – Power broke out with a 91.9 MPH exit velocity and 10 homers in 200 PA. He’s a strong side of a platoon bat who might see everyday at-bats because Pitt is devoid of talent. 2021 Projection: 65/20/73/.260/.327/.446/0

536) Jason Heyward CHC, OF, 31.8 – Built off 2019’s mini power resurgence by notching his highest ISO (.190) since 2012. He’s becoming a more patient hitter with his swing% dropping to a career low 36.7%. 2021 Projection: 74/18/67/.259/.351/.430/6

537) Ji-Man Choi TB, 1B, 29.11 – Homerun power dropped off with only 3 homers in 145 PA, and average exit velocity dropped 2.2 MPH to a career low 89 MPH, but his FB/LD exit velocity remained strong at 94.5 MPH so a bounce back is likely. 2021 Projection: 56/18/63/.255/.353/.453/1

538) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 26.6 – Plus speed (28.7 ft/sec sprint speed) with average pop (88.6 MPH exit velocity with a 15.6 degree launch) and a good feel to hit (22.8% whiff%), but will have to scratch and claw for playing time. 2021 Projection: 51/10/42/.261/.311/.407/13

539) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 20.4 – Prodigious power with 19 homers and a 53.5% FB% in 63 games in 2019. It comes with some strikeouts, but the hitting skills are there for that to improve, and he should chip in some stolen bases too. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/29/80/.247/.331/.471/6

540) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 18.10 – Selected 21st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Walker is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a quick, athletic swing and plus power. Like many hitters this tall, there are questions about the ultimate hit tool. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/24/75/.262/.335/.456/7

541) Jake Vogel LAD, OF, 19.6 – Selected 100th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Vogel’s calling card is his double plus speed and excellent athleticism. He’s only 5’11”, 165 pounds, but he has sneaky pop evidenced by a top exit velocity of 97 MPH at a 2019 Perfect game event which puts him in the top 4% of his class. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/16/71/.261/.327/.418/23

542) Hector Neris PHI, Closer Committee, 31.10 – Splitter continued to dominate with a 50% whiff%, throwing it 48.1% of the time. 2021 Projection: 3/3.82/1.29/74/25 in 65 IP

543) Taylor Rogers MIN, Closer Committee, 30.4 – Dominates with a plus sinker/slider combo. .400 BABIP was the main reason for the 4.05 ERA. 2021 Projection: 3/3.31/1.16/81/20 in 65 IP

544) Greg Holland KC, Closer, 35.4 – Rejuvenated season with a pitching line of 2.52/0.93/31.7 in 28.1 IP. He did it on the back of his plus slider, throwing it 51.3% of the time with a .209 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 3/3.91/1.31/59/24 in 56 IP

545) Rafael Montero SEA, Closer, 30.5 – Andres Munoz is lurking, but Montero is the favorite for saves in 2021. He throws mid 90’s heat with a plus changeup as his out pitch. 2021 Projection: 3/4.02/1.21/63/28 in 58 IP

546) Joakim Soria ARI, Closer Committee, 36.10 – He’ll compete for the closer job and is probably the favorite. K% was a bit on the low side and BB% on the high side compared to his career numbers, but production remained solid with a 2.82 ERA in 22.1 IP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.82/1.27/65/26 in 62 IP

547) Emilio Pagan SD, Closer Committee, 29.11 – Could win at least a share of the closer job. He struggled early in the season but closed the year out with a 1.64 ERA and 13/2 K/BB in 11 IP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.68/1.10/73/15 in 64 IP

548) Alex Colome MIN, Closer Committee, 32.3 – Threw his cutter 71.6% of the time and put up a .212 xwOBA on the pitch. He’ll be in the mix for saves in Minnesota. 2021 Projection: 3/3.51/1.19/59/18 in 65 IP

549) Diego Castillo TB, Closer Committee, 27.2 – Threw his plus slider 64.7% of the time, putting up a .198 xwOBA. 2020 Projection: 3/3.30/1.16/69/12 in 65 IP

550) Will Smith ATL, Closer Committee, 31.9 – Seems like the Braves prefer Smith in a setup role, but he should still his fair share of saves. He struggled with the long ball in 2020, giving up 7 homers with a 4.50 ERA in 16 IP, but the 18/4 K/BB was still strong. 2021 Projection: 3/3.48/1.12/75/10 in 62 IP

551) Isan Diaz MIA, 2B, 24.10 – Opted out of the 2020 season after the first 2 games, then had a change of heart in September only to suffer a season ending groin injury a few days later. Announced he will compete for the starting 2B job with Jazz Chisholm. 2021 Projection: 41/11/45/.231/.307/.402/3

552) Mitch Garver MIN, C, 30.2 – Intercostal strain knocked Garver out for a month, and he might have lost his starting job in the process with Ryan Jeffers stepping in and outplaying him (.791 OPS vs. .511 OPS). 2021 Projection: 41/13/45/.242/.327/.441/1

553) Justin Dunn SEA, RHP, 25.6 – Below average 19.2% K% and 15.7% BB% to go along with a 92 MPH exit velocity against and 21 degree launch angle is not a recipe for success. Fastball velocity was down to 91.2 MPH, so you can’t point to nasty stuff as a sign of hope. 2021 Projection: 6/4.68/1.43/124 in 141 IP

554) Reyes Moronta SF, Closer, 28.2 – Missed all of 2020 after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum and is expected to be healthy for 2020. He throws a 3 pitch mix headlined by a 97.2 MPH fastball and plus slider. No guarantee he wins the closer job but he seems to be the favorite. 2021 Projection: 2/3.73/1.29/66/21 in 53 IP

555) Amir Garrett CIN, Closer Committee, 28.11 – Has been very public about wanting the closer job. Garrett throws his slider 55.5% of the time and it put up a .227 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 3/3.61/1.29/73/15 in 60 IP

556) Stefan Crichton ARI, Closer Committee, 29.1 – He’ll compete for the closer job with Soria. He leans heavily on his sinker which he throws 60.4% of the time to go along with a plus curve. 2021 Projection: 3/3.90/1.27/55/14 in 58 IP

557) Evan Longoria SF, 3B, 35.6 – Exit velocity rose 2 MPH to a career high 91.7 MPH but it didn’t impact his overall numbers all that much with a .722 OPS. 2021 Projection: 66/22/76/.264/.321/.445/2

558) Miguel Andujar NYY, 3B/OF, 26.1 – Poor defense has Andujar on the outside looking in for playing time. He hasn’t been all that great with the bat either in limited opportunities (.632 OPS in 65 PA in 2020). 2021 Projection: 33/9/36/.268/.310/.466/1

559) Abraham Toro HOU, 3B, 24.4 – Hasn’t hit the ball very hard in 186 MLB PA spread across 2019 and 2020 with a 86.5 MPH exit velocity. He hasn’t had a problem making contact with a 22.6% K%, but he’s gonna need to hit the ball harder to make an impact. 2021 Projection: 28/6/31/.251/.322/.409/3 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.265/.336/.451/7

560) Luis Garcia WASH, 2B, 20.10 – Strong strikeout rates mostly transferred to the majors with a 20.9% K%, but so did his poor plate approach (3.6% BB%) and weak contact (83.4 MPH exit velocity). 2021 Projection: 49/8/38/.263/.302/.397/5 Prime Projection: 81/21/73/.283/.338/.444/10

561) Corbin Martin ARI, RHP, 25.3 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2019 and other than an oblique strain in August, all reports of his recovery were positive. He throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a 95.5 MPH fastball, and could be the next man up in Arizona. 2021 Projection: 4/4.34/1.36/85 in 86 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.98/1.31/175 in 170 IP

562) Daz Cameron DET, OF, 24.2 – Slashed .193/.220/.263 in 59 PA in his MLB debut, but the underlying numbers show there is hope. 26.5 whiff% is better than his 32.2% K%, and the exit velocity numbers weren’t too bad (87.1/93.5 MPH AVG/FB exit velo). He has above average speed and there are OF jobs in Detroit to be won. 2021 Projection: 43/8/36/.237/.309/.398/8 Prime Projection: 76/18/71/.253/.331/.427/15

563) Gabriel Arias CLE, SS, 21.1 – Came on in the 2nd half of 2019, slashing .355/.385/.565 with 10 homers and a 48/11 K/BB in final 51 games at High-A. He’s still raw at the plate, but has near plus raw power and an improving hit tool. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 67/22/74/.254/.310/.436/6

564) Bryson Stott PHI, SS, 23.5 – Stott has solid skills across the board but is without a carrying tool. Should chip in a little bit in every category. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 79/19/72/.268/.334/.427/14

565) Luis Rodriguez LAD, OF, 18.7 – Only reps he got this year was in the Dominican Instructional League. Rodriguez makes hard contact to all fields with a line drive approach and above average speed. At 6’2”, 175 pounds he has the chance to grow into more power, although it is not expected to be a major part of his game. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/20/72/.278/.347/.441/12

566) Yusniel Diaz BAL, OF, 24.6 – Performed well and showed good power at alt camp. Hasn’t had the full on breakout that would win him a full time job, but has the talent to slowly work his way into the lineup. 2021 Projection: 28/7/28/.251/.312/.419/1 Prime Projection: 72/22/77/.267/.331/.449/7

567) Luis Toribio SF, 3B, 20.6 – Worked on turning his considerable raw power into game power at instructs. Toribio is physically mature with an advanced plate approach and strong exit velocity readings. Here he is ripping a 111 MPH single. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/22/79/.264/.348/.452/3

568) Khalil Lee KC, OF, 22.9 – 28.2% K% and 59.3% GB% in 2019 is a horrible combination, but he has a plus power/speed combo and was 20/21 years old at Double-A. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 78/21/72/.253/.336/.443/17

569) Anderson Tejeda TEX, SS, 22.11 – Made his MLB debut in 2020 and played as advertised with high strikeout rates (39% K% in 77 PA) and plus power potential (98.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity with a 14.3 degree launch angle). 2021 Projection: 42/12/47/.228/.290/.423/6 Prime Projection: 69/25/81/.242/.321/.453/9

570) Kevin Kiermaier TB, OF, 30.11 – Plus defensive center fielder with plus speed and moderate power. Notched careers highs in K% (26.4%) and BB% (12.6%) in 2020. 2021 Projection: 58/13/54/.233/.305/.398/17

571) Tristen Lutz MIL, OF, 22.7 – Strikeout rates are high but he has double plus raw power and doesn’t sell out for homers. He continued to work on refining his approach in 2020. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 74/25/82/.263/.340/.473/6

572) Tanner Burns CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 36th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Burns has a history of excellent production in the SEC with a pitching line of 2.86/1.17/210/67 in 188.2 career IP. He has plus command over a fastball he can ramp up to 87 MPH, to go along with a plus breaking ball and average change. He’s on the small side at 6’0”, 215 pounds and had shoulder problems in 2019, so durability is a concern. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.15/1.27/162 in 168 IP

573) Maikol Hernandez BAL, SS, 17.6 – At 6’3”, 175 pounds, Hernandez has loads of upside with plus speed and the potential for plus power. He’s currently an all fields, line drive hitter who consistently makes hard contact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/78/.259/.327/.452/12

574) Travis Swaggerty PIT, OF, 23.9 – Showed off improved pull side power at the alt site to go along with plus outfield defense. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 77/18/71/.264/.331/.421/16

575) Ryan Vilade COL, SS, 22.1 – Made adjustments to unlock more of his plus raw power in 2019, lowering GB% 10% to 42.9% and hitting 12 homers in 128 games at High-A. He did so while maintaining a strong plate approach (16.2% K%/9.5% BB%) ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 77/19/73/.276/.340/.434/8

576) JJ Goss TB, RHP, 20.3 – Fastball ticked up at instructs and continued to show a swing and miss slider and good feel for a changeup. He throws strikes and knows how to pitch. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.81/1.24/173 in 171 IP

577) Alexander Ramirez NYM, OF, 18.3 – Signed for $2.05 million in 2019, Ramirez is a great athlete with a projectable 6’3”, 170 pound frame and a good feel to hit. He was one of my favorite late round targets in 2019/20 first year player drafts. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/22/76/.267/.341/.451/16

578) Jhoan Duran MIN, RHP, 23.3 – Fastball can reach triple digits and throws a plus low 90’s sinker/splitter hybrid. Bullpen risk is high ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 10/3.96/1.34/157 in 162 IP

579) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 22.0 – Selected 29th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a plus fastball that reaches the upper 90’s, a plus slider, and a potentially plus changeup. 2020 was the first year he was going to be a full time starter, and his delivery indicates some bullpen risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.29/149 in 151 IP

580) Ismael Mena CHC, OF, 18.4 – Signed for $2.2 million in 2019, Mena is a lean 6’3”, 185 pounds with a line drive approach, developing power, and plus speed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/18/71/.262/.330/.424/17

581) Josh Wolf CLE, RHP, 20.7 – Wolf is an athletic and projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds whose fastball should sit in the mid 90s at peak with a plus breaking ball and developing change. Trade to the pitching prospect paradise of Cleveland can only help his development. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.96/1.30/167 in 169 IP

582) Bo Naylor CLE, C, 21.1 – Played well at alt camp, showing off an advanced hit tool and mature plate approach. He only has about average power, but he does have some speed which gives him the chance to be an all category contributor from the catcher position. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/18/71/.271/.344/.432/7

583) Jeremy Pena HOU, SS, 23.6 – Played well in the Domincan Winter League, slashing .306/.349/.430 with 3 homers, 7 steals, and a 23/7 K/BB in 30 games. He is a plus defender with above average speed and a solid plate approach, but power remains below average. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 78/15/69/.262/.331/.405/14

584) Zach DeLoach SEA, OF, 22.7 – Selected 43rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, DeLoach exploded in the 2019 Cape Cod League with a .353/.428/.541 triple-slash after disappointing with a .611 OPS in the SEC earlier that year. He carried over the Cape Cod league success in 2020 with a 1.336 OPS, 6 steals and a 3/14 K/BB in 18 games. He doesn’t have any elite tools, but has the chance to be an all category contributor. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/20/74/.267/.333/.434/12

585) Alexander Vargas NYY, SS, 19.5 – Showed plus contact ability in 2019 (12.7% K%) with plus speed (13 steals) and should start hitting the ball with more authority as he gets stronger. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/14/62/.272/.338/.411/21

586) Brennan Malone PIT, RHP, 20.7 – Malone is a power pitcher who throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a potentially plus fastball/slider combo. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 13/3.83/1.26/187 in 178 IP

587) Tyler Callihan CIN, 2B/3B, 20.9 – Callihan has plus power with an aggressive approach at the plate and limited defensive value. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 67/25/81/.267/.328/.465/3

588) Ryan Weathers SD, LHP, 21.4 – Impressed San Diego enough at alt camp for them to put him on the postseason roster where he made his MLB debut with 1.1 scoreless IP. His stuff ticked up in 2020, giving him the potential for 3 above average pitches to go along with his advanced feel to pitch and plus control. 2021 Projection: 2/4.28/1.31/44 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.25/169 in 178 IP

589) Antoine Kelly MIL, LHP, 21.4 – Kelly impressed at the alternate site with added velocity and improved secondaries. He is 6’6”, 205 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball, plus slider and average change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.84/1.27/166 in 163 IP

590) Cole Winn TEX, RHP, 21.4 – Took a step forward in 2020 with his fastball ticking up into the mid 90’s and showing improved secondaries. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.95/1.29/174 in 178 IP

591) Bayron Lora TEX, OF, 18.6 – Signed for $3.9 million in 2019, Lora is 6’5”, 230 pounds with double plus raw power, but it comes with some swing and miss. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/28/82/.249/.326/.494/3

592) Alexfri Planez CLE, OF, 19.8 – Big time power potential with a raw, aggressive approach at the plate and above average speed. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/25/77/.254/.322/.471/8

593) Gilberto Celestino MIN, OF, 22.2 – Plus contact/speed profile with a 90 MPH average exit velocity. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 79/14/65/.273/.332/.408/16

594) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS, 20.10 – 13.5% K% and 18 steals in 46 games at Full-A in 2019. Peraza has plus athleticism with above average raw power that he hasn’t been able to fully tap into yet. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/14/65/.263/.322/.410/19

595) Jeremy De La Rosa WASH, OF, 19.2 – Advanced enough to go straight to stateside ball as a 17 year old in 2019, and Washington continued to push him in 2020 by bringing him to the alt site where he was able to hold his own against advanced competition. De La Rosa is an excellent athlete with the potential for average to above average production across the board. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.264/.336/.445/9

596) Braden Shewmake ATL, SS, 23.4 – Showed in 2019 that his plus contact skills and plus speed would transfer to pro ball with a 12.8% K% and 11 steals in 51 games at Full-A. At 6’4”, 190 pounds, there should be some more power in the tank as well. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 74/15/65/.272/.330/.421/16

597) Wilderd Patino ARI, OF, 19.9 – Made improvements to his swing and showed more pop at instructs in 2020. He hit a “huge home run” against Reid Detmers. He is a tooled up, high upside power/speed combo but there are concerns over the hit tool. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/21/72/.251/.333/.441/18

598) Parker Meadows DET, OF, 21.5 – Showed off his plus athleticism at alt camp in 2020. Full season debut in 2019 was underwhelming with a .221/.296/.312 triple-slash, but a 22.4% K% and 9.3% BB% is very encouraging considering the plus athleticism and power/speed combo. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 75/20/71/.253/.331/.432/14

599) Keoni Cavaco MIN, SS, 19.10 – High risk, high reward prospect with a plus power/combo but is a major hit tool risk (35/4 K/BB in 25 game pro debut in 2019). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 71/25/76/.241/.298/.449/11

600) Ethan Small MIL, LHP, 24.2 – Small doesn’t have big stuff but he racks up strikeouts with deception and plus command. He struck out 168 batters in 102 IP in the SEC and then came into pro ball in 2019 and did the same thing with a 36/4 K/BB in 21 IP at mostly Full-A. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/4.06/1.28/173 in 171 IP

601) Zack Thompson STL, LHP, 23.5 – Thompson throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a high spin rate, plus curveball. He has some injury red flags and needs to improve his command. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.32/171 in 164 IP

602) Jordan Nwogu CHC, OF, 22.1 – Selected 88th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Nwogu is 6’3”, 235 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and very strong numbers in his 3 years in the Big Ten, slashing .334/.430/.545 with 20 homers, 30 steals, and a 96/63 K/BB in 125 career games. There are some concerns over his swing, but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/23/77/.253/.325/.457/14

603) Yonny Chirinos TB, RHP, 27.3 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2020 and will miss all of 2021. 2021 Projection: OUT

604) Jack Kochanowicz LAA, RHP, 20.3 – Kochanowicz is 6’6”, 220 pounds with a plus fastball/curve combo and developing change. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.89/1.26/174 in 176 IP

605) Jhonny Piron TB, OF, 17.2 – At 6’1”, 165 pounds, Piron is tooled up with excellent athleticism, plus speed and power projection, but needs to continue refining his hit tool. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/20/74/.262/.331/.443/14

606) Jorge Alfaro MIA, C, 27.10 – Development has seemingly stagnated with no improvements in K% (36%), BB% (4%), or launch angle (2.8 degrees). Catchers have been known to break out offensively later in their careers due to how much they need to focus on defense, so that might be the path Alfaro is on. 2021 Projection: 48/16/59/.248/.301/.408/5

607) Carson Kelly ARI, C, 26.9 – Whiff% rose 3.8% to 26.8%, BB% tanked 8.5% to 4.7%, and exit velocity dropped 2.7 MPH to 86.3 MPH. He hits it in the air and still hit 5 homers in 39 games, but he took a step back in multiple areas. 2021 Projection: 45/16/49/.240/.320/.421/.0

608) Danny Jansen TOR, C, 26.0 – Exit velocity tanked to 85.1 MPH, killing any chance of a breakout despite a strong K% (21.1%), BB% (14.3%), and launch angle (16.3 degrees). 2021 Projection: 46/15/49/.234/.325/.413/0

609) Wilson Ramos DET, C, 33.8 – Underlying numbers were slightly down and BABIP was a little low which lead to a down year (.684 OPS). Nothing is setting off alarm bells, so a bounce back should be in order, but he’s not getting any younger at 33 years of age. 2021 Projection: 48/15/63/.270/.330/.437/0

610) Tyler Stephenson CIN, C, 24.8 – Smashed in his 20 PA MLB debut with 2 homers and a .294 BA. The power is nice to see as he’s always displayed a strong plate approach in the minors. 2021 Projection: 28/7/33/.251/.319/.406/1 Prime Projection: 61/18/67/.268/.337/.428/1

611) Edwin Encarnacion FA, DH, 38.3 – Exit velocity bottomed out to 85.4 MPH and whiff% hit a career worst 32.6%. It led to a cover your eyes .157/.250/.377 triple-slash in 44 games. He still managed to knock 10 homers, and his BABIP was an unsustainably low .156, so while it would be hard to deny he is in decline, there could be another useful year or two left in him. 2021 Projection: 62/24/67/.232/.320/.468/0

612) Jose Iglesias LAA, SS, 31.3 – Hit for a .373 BA on the back of an unsustainable .407 BABIP. Exit velocity did reach a career high 86.2 MPH, so combined with an elite 11.3% K%, some of that batting average gain was real. 2021 Projection: 65/11/62/.291/.328/.414/7

613) Isiah Kiner Falefa TEX, 3B/SS, 26.0 – Texas announced he will be their starting SS in 2020. Falefa is a contact hitter (14% K%) who will steal a handful of bags, but a 0.8 degree launch angle and 90.5 MPH FB/LD exit velocity does not give much hope for a power outbreak. 2021 Projection: 76/10/51/.271/.327/.376/13

614) Adam Frazier PIT, 2B/OF, 29.3 – Drilled 7 homers in 58 games but with a career low 85.5 MPH exit velocity, that pace is likely unsustainable. Career low .230 BA was due to a career low .246 BABIP. 2021 Projection: 73/12/67/.273/.335/.415/5

615) Andrelton Simmons MIN, SS, 31.7 – If only defense was a fantasy category … 2021 Projection: 68/11/61/.273/.325/.396/10

616) Keegan Akin BAL, LHP, 26.0 – Solid MLB debut with a 4.56 ERA and 30.2 K% in 25.2 IP. He relies heavily on his 91.9 MPH 4-seam fastball that he threw 62% of the time. 2021 Projection: 8/4.43/1.42/151 in 155 IP

617) Michael Baumann BAL, RHP, 25.7 – Flexor mass strain ended his season in August. He was impressing at alt camp before that with a mid 90’s fastball and 3 secondaries headlined by a plus slider. 2021 Projection: 2/4.46/1.39/50 in 55 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.07/1.30/162 in 165 IP

618) Adam Kloffenstein TOR, RHP, 20.8 – Kloffenstein is 6’5”, 243 pounds with an average to above average 4-pitch mix. Pitched well as an 18 year old at Short-A in 2019 with a pitching line of 2.24/1.09/64/23 in 64.1 IP. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.95/1.32/171 in 176 IP

619) Luis Gil NYY, RHP, 22.10 – High risk, high reward prospect with an upper 90’s fastball but control/command and secondaries are still raw. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/3.95/1.34/155 in 152 IP

620) Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 23.10 – Will compete for the 5th starter job in Spring. He throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a 94 MPH fastball and plus slider. 2021 Projection: 7/4.48/1.40/113 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.33/151 in 161 IP

621) David Bote CHC, 2B/3B, 28.0 – Hits the ball hard (92.4 MPH exit velocity) with a little speed (27.6 ft/sec sprint speed) and a high walk rate (11.7% BB%). 2021 Projection: 62/16/60/.242/.329/.420/6

622) Monte Harrison MIA, OF, 25.8 – 51% K% in his 51 PA MLB debut shows the extreme swing and miss issues he has had throughout his entire career. He’s a great athlete with a plus power/speed combo, but the risk is starting to overtake the reward. 2021 Projection: 27/5/23/.203/.271/.353/6

623) Jake Fraley SEA, OF, 25.10 – Has struggled two years in a row in small sample, cups of coffee on the MLB level, putting up a combined triple-slash of .152/.200/.227 with a 25/2 K/BB in 70 PA. Statcast numbers don’t provide a silver lining either with an 83.1 MPH exit velocity and average speed. 2021 Projection: 28/6/31/.231/.288/.391/3

624) Jeremiah Jackson LAA, SS, 21.0 – 33% K% as a 19 year old in rookie ball in 2019, which means the risk is sky high, but he also smacked a ridiculous 23 homers in 65 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/27/81/.241/.319/.451/10

625) Logan Davidson OAK, SS, 23.3 – Made gains in 2020 by improving his below average hit tool, giving hope he will be able to get to his plus power/speed combo. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 69/20/75/.249/.325/.443/12

626) Bryse Wilson ATL, RHP, 23.3 – Dominated the minors by commanding his plus fastball, but profiles more as a back end starter in the majors without a dominant secondary offering and below average whiff rates. 2021 Projection: 3/4.48/1.38/64 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.33/154 in 167 IP

627) Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 22.8 – Selected 25th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Shuster showed dramatically improved control in the 2019 Cape Cod League (1.4 BB/9 in 32 IP), and not only did he maintain that in 26.1 IP in 2020 (1.4 BB/9), but he also increased his fastball velocity by about 4 MPH with the ability to hit 97 MPH. His best pitch is a plus changeup to go along with an average slider. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.21/1.30/168 in 173 IP

628) Rich Hill FA, LHP, 40.1 – 3.03 ERA looked good, but the underlying stats told a different story with a 5.08 xERA and his K% dropping to 19.9%. Also missed some time with shoulder soreness. 2021 Projection: 6/4.13/1.28/108 in 115 IP

629) Jose Quintana LAA, LHP, 31.6 – Thumb and lat injuries limited Quintana to 10 IP. Stuff looked mostly the same with low 90’s heat and an above average curveball. 2021 Projection: 8/4.32/1.34/141 in 157 IP

630) JT Brubaker PIT, RHP, 27.4 – Solid MLB debut with an above average 27.6% whiff% and 4.39 xERA in 47.1 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 93.8 MPH sinker. 2021 Projection: 7/4.44/1.36/133 in 145 IP

631) Anthony DeSclafani SF, RHP, 31.0 – The wheels fell off with a 7.22 ERA and 25/16 K/BB in 33.2 IP. K% dropped to 15.8% but whiff% remained stable at 23.2% so some of that looks to be bad luck. Will get a ballpark upgrade moving away from Cincy. 2021 Projection: 8/4.41/1.35/143 in 158 IP

632) Michael Wacha TB, RHP, 29.9 – Got shelled with a 6.62 ERA in 34 IP but he did post career bests in K% (23.7%) and BB% (4.5%), so it wasn’t as bad as it looked. 2021 Projection: 7/4.42/1.42/129 in 142 IP

633) Jared Kelley CHW, RHP, 19.5 – Selected 47th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Kelley throws mid 90’s gas with a plus changeup, but lacks feel on his breaking ball. The upside is considerable if the breaking ball improves, but if it doesn’t he may end up in the pen. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.31/158 in 155 IP

634) Cole Wilcox SD, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 80th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Wilcox was starting to show improved control with only 2 walks in 23 IP before the season got shutdown (5.7 BB/9 in 2019). It’s a good sign as the stuff is nasty with a mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.33/161 in 158 IP

635) Hans Crouse TEX, RHP, 22.6 – Worked out on his own in 2020 due to a personal issue. His stuff took a step back in 2019 because of a bone spur in his elbow which required surgery after the season. Assuming he is back to 100% in 2021, he throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus slider and above average change. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.87/1.28/162 in 155 IP

636) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 22.1 – Selected 30th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Westburg has the raw talent to be a plus power/speed combo, but he hasn’t been able to tap into his raw power yet with only 10 homers in 124 NCAA games, and the hit tool is also a concern with high strikeout rates throughout his career. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/15/68/.246/.318/.420/13

637) William Contreras ATL, C, 23.3 – Worked on his defense in 2020 to the point he can now potentially be plus behind the dish. Offensively he continued to show a good feel to hit with plus raw power. Shea Langeliers is still lurking, so Contreras will likely need a trade to project for full time at-bats. 2021 Projection: 15/4/19/.242/.291/.392/0 Prime Projection: 52/22/61/.267/.328/.443/0

638) Andrew Knizner STL, C, 26.2 – Only received 17 PA in 2020 but proved he can put a charge into the ball with a 94.3 MPH average exit velocity. He’s also shown a good feel to hit throughout his minor league career, and looks to have first dibs on the Cardinals starting catcher job. 2021 Projection: 48/13/53/.258/.313/.405/2

639) Omar Narvaez MIL, C, 29.1 – Total collapse across the board with a 31% K%, 81.6 MPH exit velocity, and a .562 OPS. 2021 Projection: 46/11/41/.248/.339/.397/0

640) Yan Gomes WASH, C, 33.8 – Hit for a .284 BA with a career best 18.5% K% and 89.9 MPH exit velocity. Expected to catch 100+ games in 2021 as Washington’s primary catcher. 2021 Projection: 49/16/53/.251/.311/.430/1

641) Dillon Dingler DET, C, 22.6 – Selected 38th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Dingler was just starting to tap into his raw power in 2020 with 5 homers in 13 games. He’s a plus athlete for a catcher with the chance to steal a handful of bases, which is always nice to get from your catcher position. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/17/63/.260/.328/.424/7

642) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 21.5 – Advanced hitter who stood out at instructs, but has yet to tap fully into his raw power and has limited defensive value. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 68/20/75/.273/.348/.448/6

643) Clayton Beeter LAD, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 66th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Beeter has impressive stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and the potential for two plus breaking balls. 2020 was his first year as a starter in college, and while the numbers are impressive (2.14 ERA with a 33/4 K/BB), it came in only 21 IP and he had a 8.7 BB/9 in 20.2 IP in 2019. Reliever risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/3.83/1.32/141 in 127 IP

644) Miguel Amaya CHC, C, 22.1 – Focused on improving his defense at the alt site. 16.8% K% and 13.2% BB% as a 20 year old at High-A in 2019 shows his mature plate approach. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 63/19/66/.265/.342/.433/1

645) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 19.7 – One of the top international signings in 2018, Cartaya has an advanced plate approach with the potential to hit for both average and power. He is also a lock to stick behind the dish. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/20/73/.274/.340/.438/1

646) Bryan Mata BOS, RHP, 21.11 – Control took a major step forward in 2019, cutting his walk rate from 7.3 BB/9 in 2018 to 3.6 BB/9 in 2019. He continued to work on that in 2020 at the alt site. He has big time stuff headlined by a plus fastball/slider combo, but still needs to work on command and consistently. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/4.14/1.33/161 in 169 IP

647) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 22.3 – Selected 39th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Haskin has shown the ability to hit for hard contact with strong plate approach numbers at Tulane, slashing .363/.457/.612 with 11 homers and a 39/40 K/BB in 73 career games. He’s a plus defender with plus speed although it only resulted in 5 steals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/18/70/.267/.336/.433/11

648) Jared Jones PIT, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 44th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Jones is a great athlete with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. His control has been spotty and he doesn’t have ideal size at 6’1”, 180 pounds. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.34/154 in 151 IP

649) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 18.9 – Selected 45th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Caissie is young for high high school class and has plus raw power with above average speed at 6’4”, 190 pounds, but it comes with some strikeout issues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/24/79/.242/.327/.462/9

650) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 18.3 – Selected 89th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Jordan has been known for his prodigious raw power for years now, putting up impressive exit velocity numbers, but limited defensive value means he’s likely going to have to hit his ceiling to see everyday at-bats. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 62/24/71/.250/.325/.467/4

651) Carson Tucker CLE, SS, 18.2 – Selected 23rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Tucker has shown good feel to hit with plus speed and the ability to stick at SS. Power should develop but doesn’t project to be a major part of his game. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/14/64/.271/.326/.413/15

652) Manuel Beltre TOR, SS, 16.10 – Beltre in an advanced hitter with excellent contact rates and a history of performing against top competition at Perfect Game events. He doesn’t have the monster power/speed combo, but he should grow into more power, and the hit tool combined with all the exposure he’s gotten makes him much safer than other international prospects. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/22/79/.277/.345/.458/6

653) Slade Cecconi ARI, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 33rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Cecconi is 6’4”, 220 pounds with a plus fastball/slider combo, but has had trouble maintaining his stuff throughout his career and as he gets deeper into games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.18/1.33/154 in 162 IP

654) JT Ginn NYM, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 52nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Ginn underwent Tommy John surgery after exiting his first start of the season after 3 IP. He showed his dominance in 2019 with a pitching line of 3.13/1.05/105/19 in 86.1 IP in the SEC on the back of his plus fastball/slider combo and a changeup that flashes plus. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.26/174 in 166 IP

655) Will Wilson SF, SS, 22.8 – Impressed with his raw power at alternate camp and instructs which is nice to see after averaging only an 86 MPH exit velocity in his pro debut. He projects as a solid all around hitter. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 72/20/74/.265/.331/.440/4

656) Masyn Winn STL, SS/RHP, 19.0 – Selected 54th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Winn is a two way player with considerable upside at both SS and pitcher. He throws mid 90’s heat with the potential for two plus secondaries (breaking ball and changeup), and he has a plus power/speed combo at the dish. He’s only 5’11”, 180 pounds, so there are some concerns over his size as a pitcher, and he also needs to refine his hit tool at the plate. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 6/3.91/1.34/109 in 106 IP – 61/15/58/.241/.316/.420/11

657) Arol Vera LAA, SS, 18.7 – Signed for $2 million in 2019, the 6’3”, 187 pound Vera has shown a good feel to hit and has the chance to grow into plus power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/23/81/.268/.334/.452/6

658) Jairo Pomares SF, OF, 20.8 – Impressive pro debut in 2019, slashing .368/.401/.542 with 3 homers, 5 steals, a 90 MPH avg. exit velocity and a 26/10 K/BB in 37 games. He doesn’t project for huge home run or stolen base totals, but he has a chance to be solid 5 category player. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/19/76/.270/.331/.436/10

659) Joe Ryan TB, RHP, 24.10 – Pulverized 3 levels of the minors (A, A+, AA) in 2019 using mostly a plus fastball that he commands well, putting up a pitching line of 1.96/0.84/183/27 in 123.2 IP. Needs to improve secondaries to keep those numbers up at the major league level. 2021 Projection: 1/4.36/1.37/24 in 25 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.09/1.33/160 in 157 IP

660) Mike Siani CIN, OF, 21.8 – Full season debut in 2019 wasn’t great (.672 OPS), but he displayed a solid plate approach (20.5% K%/8.7% BB%) with plus speed (45 steals) and developing power (6 homers). Plus centerfield defense should give his bat time to develop. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/14/61/.263/.328/.409/25

661) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 19.4 – Selected 103rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Mayo has big raw power at 6’5”, 215 pounds but it comes with batting average concerns and limited defensive value. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 64/24/76/.240/.314/.466/4

662) David Calabrese LAA, OF, 18.6 – Selected 82nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Calabrese is one of the youngest players in the draft. His game is built around double plus speed and CF defense, and while he should grow into more power, at 5’11”, 160 pounds, it doesn’t figure to be a major part of his game. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/13/59/.265/.327/.406/24

663) Cristian Santana DET, SS, 17.3 – Santana stands out for his advanced plate approach and hit tool. Like most high priced international signings, he’s an excellent athlete with power projection: ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/20/74/.277/.352/.455/7

664) Miguel Rojas MIA, SS, 32.1 – Maintained an elite K% (12.6%) while his power (.192 ISO) and BB% (11.2%) blew up to career bests. 2021 Projection: 69/10/66/.280/.333/.397/8

665) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 19.0 – Selected 17th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Yorke has an advanced feel to hit and a mature approach at the plate, but doesn’t project for big power or speed totals. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/18/71/.278/.343/.442/6

666) Nick Ahmed ARI, SS, 31.0 – Steady but unspectacular 5 category production. 2021 Projection: 73/17/75/.257/.319/.426/8

667) Luis Arraez MIN, 2B, 24.0 – Hit zero homers in 32 games but a 90.6 MPH FB/LD exit velocity with a 12.1 degree launch angle isn’t so bad that he can’t run into a handful of dingers. Continued his elite contact hitting ways with a 9.1% K% and .321 BA. Andrelton Simmons signing hurts his playing time projection. 2021 Projection: 73/5/59/.308/.367/.424/4

668) Donovan Solano SF, 2B, 33.3 – Backed up his 2019 breakout in 2020, slashing .326/.365/.463 with 3 homers and a 39/10 K/BB in 54 games. BABIP was unsustainably high both years (.396 in 2020), and there isn’t much power or speed. 2021 Projection: 72/10/68/.288/.326/.405/1

669) Kevin Newman PIT, SS/2B, 27.8 – Was able to maintain elite contact rates with a 12.2% K%, but power and speed dropped off a cliff with 1 homer and 0 steals in 44 games. 2021 Projection: 49/8/46/.272/.322/.391/8

670) Kohei Arihara TEX, RHP, 28.8 – Arihara pounds the strike zone with a 7 pitch mix that hasn’t produced very many strikeouts in Japan (7.2 K/9 in 2020). He features a splitter as his best secondary while his fastball sits in the low 90’s, ultimately profiling as back end starter. 2021 Projection: 8/4.37/1.32/131 in 157 IP

671) Daniel Johnson CLE, OF, 25.9 – Will compete for a likely strong side of a platoon role in Spring. He went 1 for 13 in his MLB debut in 2020. Plus power/speed combo, but a questionable hit tool could limit him to a part time role. 2021 Projection: 38/9/41/.243/.306/.425/6 Prime Projection: 62/16/66/.252/.318/.450/9

672) Jahmai Jones BAL, 2B, 23.8 – Changing his swing to unlock more power didn’t take in 2019, and he looked much better in 2020 going with his natural line drive approach. 2B job is wide open in Baltimore. 2021 Projection: 46/8/41/.241/.307/.390/7 Prime Projection: 67/13/61/.268/.327/.412/11

673) Kyle Isbel KC, OF, 24.1 – Hamstring and hamate injuries tanked Isbel’s 2019 season, leading to a 86 wRC+ in 52 games at High-A, but he looked much better in the Fall League with a .315 BA, 1 homer, 6 steals and a 20/14 K/BB in 91 PA. Plus defense and plus speed are his best skills. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 79/16/67/.268/.325/.417/19

674) Seth Corry SF, LHP, 22.5 – Dominated in his full season debut in 2019 with a pitching line of 1.76/1.07/172/58 in 122.2 IP. He has the potential for 3 above average pitches, but command will have to take a step forward to remain a starter (4.3 BB/9). ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 7/4.02/1.34/109 in 111 IP

675) Thad Ward BOS, RHP, 23.2 – Velocity ticked up and developed a plus cutter en route to a dominant season in Full-A and High-A in 2019. Throws a 5 pitch mix with mid rotation upside. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/4.23/1.33/159 in 164 IP

676) Alexander Vizcaino NYY, RHP, 23.10 – Mid 90’s fastball with a plus changeup and a slider that took a step forward at alt camp. He put up a 128/38 K/BB in 115 IP split between Full-A and High-A in 2019. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/4.10/1.33/166 in 168 IP

677) Jay Groome BOS, LHP, 21.7 – Tommy John wiped out almost all of Groome’s 2018 and 2019, but he looked solid at the alt site in 2020 with a potentially plus fastball/curve combo. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/3.94/1.28/157 in 154 IP

678) Thomas Szapucki NYM, LHP, 24.10 – Returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019 after missing all of 2018 and proved his plus fastball/curve combo is still intact with 72 strikeouts in 61.2 IP at mostly High-A. He stayed healthy all year in 2020 showing off the same stuff. 2021 Projection: 1/4.43/1.38/35 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 8/4.03/1.31/152 in 150 IP

679) Kyle Harrison SF, LHP, 19.8 – Selected 85th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Harrison pounds the strikezone with a potentially plus 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). He knows how to pitch and could be a big riser in 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.24/176 in 173 IP

680) Jake McCarthy ARI, OF, 23.8 – Here is what Arizona’s farm director, Josh Barfield, said about McCarthy in this MLB.com article, “But to Jake’s credit, he came back from the shutdown and was a completely different guy … as drastic of a change in a guy as you’ll see. He put on 25 pounds of muscle and made a radical swing change. He has been mashing, just pummeling the baseball.” He was the 39th overall pick in 2018 and has hit for solid batting averages with high stolen base totals in his short pro career, so reports of added power is great to hear. Could be big 2021 breakout. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 73/20/76/.254/.322/.438/16

681) Oscar Colas FA, OF/LHP, 22.6 – Colas is a two way player with mid 90’s heat, but has only pitched 3.1 professional innings and didn’t pitch at all last season in Japan’s minor leagues. On the offensive side, he’s been hitting for power since 17 years old in Cuba, and was able to launch 12 homers in 73 games in Japan in 2019, but it has come with a healthy amount of strikeouts. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/23/75/.247/.318/.435/8

682) Colton Welker COL, 3B, 23.6 – Raw power needs to take a step forward to fully take advantage of his good feel to hit. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 71/20/73/.270/.328/435/3

683) Canaan Smith PIT, OF, 22.1 – Known for his plus walk rates since high school, and has present raw power at 6’0”, 215 pounds that he hasn’t yet turned into big time home run totals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/21/74/.259/.347/.441/6

684) Jhon Diaz TB, OF, 18.6 – Struggled at instructs which isn’t too concerning considering his age. He signed for $1.5 million in 2019 and projects for solid production across the board. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/19/74/.272/.335/.432/10

685) Luis Medina MIL, OF, 18.1 – Worked on catching up to elite velocity at instructs. He signed for $1.3 million in 2019 because of a smooth lefty swing that generates easy plus power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 65/23/72/.248/.326/.462/5

686) Francisco Morales PHI, RHP, 21.5 – Great stuff with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider, but changeup lags behind and has major bullpen risk. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.34/159 in 153 IP

687) Kevin Pillar FA, OF, 32.3 – Moderate power/speed combo whose swing and miss is trending up and defense trending down. He isn’t guaranteed to find a full time job, 2021 Projection: 63/16/54/.262/.305/.432/12

688) Luis Garcia HOU, RHP, 24.4 – Mediocre MLB debut with a 9/5 K/BB in 12.1 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a plus changeup. Mid-rotation upside if his control/command can improve. 2021 Projection: 2/4.54/1.38/49 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.32/166 in 165 IP

689) Tom Murphy SEA, C, 30.0 – Fractured his left foot in July which wiped out his entire 2020. Murphy will give you big time power with a low BA. Likely looking at some kind of time share with Luis Torrens. 2021 Projection: 38/15/49/.229/.294/.438/2

690) Pavin Smith ARI, 1B, 25.2 – Solid MLB debut, slashing .270/.341/.405 with 1 homer and an 18.2%/11.4% K%/BB% in 44 PA. Smith has displayed at least plus contact rates everywhere he has played, and has slowly started to tap into a little more power. 2021 Projection: 29/5/26/.262/.328/.406/1 Prime Projection: 76/17/72/.281/.348/.436/2

691) Cal Raleigh SEA, C, 24.4 – Plus power hitting catcher with 50%+ flyball rates. Drilled 29 homers in 121 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2019, and the power played well at instructs in 2020 as well. 2021 Projection: 8/2/11/.215/.281/.418/0 Prime Projection: 58/22/66/.238/.314/.441/1

692) Ender Inciarte ATL, OF, 30.5 – Was a part time player in 2020 and his production bottomed out with a .190 BA. 2020 Projection: 65/8/38/.251/.322/.386/14

693) Lane Thomas STL, OF, 25.8 – Missed most of the 1st half of the season with Covid, and didn’t perform very well when he returned in September. He’s fast (28.3 ft/sec sprint speed) and hits the ball hard (91 MPH exit velocity), but needs to improve his hit tool to earn a full time job. 2021 Projection: 31/8/30/.245/.308/.412/5

694) Christopher Morel CHC, 3B, 21.9 – Reports from alt camp talked about Morel’s improved hit tool, which is great to hear considering his plus power/speed combo. If the gains are real, Morel has a chance to breakout in 2021, especially for fantasy. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 65/21/71/.242/.308/.441/11

695) Alexander Mojica PIT, 3B, 18.8 – One of the best hitters in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, slashing .351/.468/.580 with 8 homers and a 34/37 K/BB in 55 games. Has a patient hitter with plus raw power. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 66/19/69/.268/.337/.461/3

696) Brenton Doyle COL, OF, 22.11 – Doyle has completely demolished the competition in his 3 years in Division II and then in his pro debut in the Pioneer League. He has a plus power/speed combo, but he has yet to consistently face advanced competition and the hit tool is a bit of a question mark. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 63/17/68/.243/.325/.442/11

697) Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 18.10 – Got bigger and stronger in 2020, which is great to see after he displayed a good feel to hit and plus speed in his pro debut in 2019. He could be a major riser in 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/14/68/.269/.336/.414/23

698) Daniel Cabrera DET, OF, 22.7 – Selected 62nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Cabrera has been known for his sweet swing and potentially plus hit tool since high school, but he lacks impact power or speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/14/.66/.276/.338/.427/8

699) Ezequiel Duran NYY, 2B, 21.10 – Power broke out at Short-A in 2019 with a league leading 13 homers in 66 games. He’s raw at the plate, but he’s a good athlete and scorches the ball ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 73/22/77/.251/.326/.461/8

700) Austin Beck OAK, OF, 22.5 – Reports of improved pitch recognition and power at instructs in 2020. Strikeout rate spiked to 34.3% at High-A in 2019 and remains all around raw in his game. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 79/21/77/.242/.314/.435/9

701) Mason Martin PIT, 1B, 21.10 – Slashed .254/.351/.558 with 35 homers and a 168/68 K/BB in 131 games split between Full-A and High-A in 2019. Poor defensive 1B, so finding playing time will be his biggest hurdle, although it shoudn’t be a problem early in his career with the depleted Pirates. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 68/26/79/.235/.328/.475/3

702) Bryce Ball ATL, 1B, 22.9 – Drafted 727th overall in 2019, Ball has double plus raw power and showed that off in his pro debut, slashing .337/..367/.547 with 4 homers and a 20/4 K/BB in 21 games at Full-A. He destroyed the Appy League too with 13 homers in 41 games. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 53/18/61/.244/.316/.452/0

703) Yeison Santana CHC, SS, 20.4 – Santana has displayed a good feel for contact with solid tools across the board. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/18/69/.276/.347/.426/13

704) Kyren Paris LAA, SS, 19.5 – Paris has above average speed with a patient plate approach and developing power. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/16/72/.267/.343/.416/16

705) Yimi Garcia MIA, Closer Committee, 30.7 – In position to have at least a share of the closer job in Miami. He throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a 94.4 MPH fastball that he throws 49.4% of the time. 2021 Projection: 3/3.65/1.16/65/17 in 61 IP

706) Archie Bradley ARI, Closer Committee, 28.8 – At the least he is next man up and he could earn a share of the closer job. Velocity was down over 1 MPH on all of his pitches, but he still pitched well with a pitching line of 2.95/1.09/18/3 in 18.1 IP 2021 Projection: 3/3.68/1.24/68/10 in 65 IP

707) Lucas Sims CIN, Closer Committee, 26.11 – In competition for the closer job, but he’s experiencing some elbow tightness which will put him a little bit behind coming into Spring. Sims throws 2 devastating breaking balls (curve, slider) with a 93.9 MPH 4-seamer. Put up a 33% K% in 2020. 2021 Projection: 3/3.73/1.28/68/10 in 55 IP

708) Mark Melancon FA, Closer, 36.0 – Groundball pitcher with a plus cutter/curveball combo. Value will swing majorly based on if he can find a closer job. 2021 Projection: 3/3.64/1.28/54/15 in 61 IP

709) Andres Munoz SEA, Setup, 22.3 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in late March 2020 and is expected to be back for the 2nd half of 2021. When healthy, he throws a 100.2 MPH fastball with a plus slider. He’s the favorite to be Seattle’s long term closer. 2020 Projection: 1/4.03/1.26/29 in 24 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.31/1.15/97/33 in 68 IP

710) Giovanny Gallegos STL, Setup, 29.9 – St. Louis could go in any number of different directions for saves, but Gallegos should at least be in the mix after putting together another strong season on the back of his dominant slider (.159 xwOBA). 2021 Projection: 3/3.42/1.03/81/15 in 62 IP

711) Nick Loftin KC, SS, 22.6 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Loftin stands out for his ability to get the bat on the ball (48 K’s in 122 NCAA games) and his defensive versality. Homer and steal totals will be average at best. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/14/62/.275/.328/.406/8

712) Seth Johnson TB, RHP, 22.6 – Johnson is a converted infielder and relatively new to pitching, but the stuff is excellent with a mid 90’s fastball and potentially plus slider. Curve and change have also shown signs of development. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 8/3.91/1.33/138 in 142 IP

713) Tainer Rainey WASH, Setup, 28.3 – Next man up in Washington. Rainey throws a 96.5 MPH fastball with a plus slider that put up a ridiculous 72.9% whiff% 2021 Projection: 3/3.52/1.21/88 in 60 IP

714) Seth Lugo NYM, RHP, 31.5 – Transitioned into the starting rotation in the 2nd half of the season and the results were a mixed bag with him getting absolutely bombed in two starts while mostly dominating in the others. With all of the Mets recent additions, he is slated to be back in a setup role. 2021 Projection: 3/3.52/1.16/81 in 72 IP

715) Emmanuel Clase CLE, Setup, 23.0 – Missed all of 2020 with a PED suspension. Clase’s 99.4 MPH fastball and 90.6 MPH slider are super impressive, although his strikeout rates haven’t popped as much as you would think (8.10 K/9 in MLB and 9.32 at Double-A). 2020 Projection: 3/3.72/1.20/69 in 65 IP

716) Zack Britton NYY, Setup, 33.3 – Next man up in New York. Groundball machine (negative 6.8 degree launch angle against) who leans heavily on his plus sinker that he throws 80.3% of the time. 2020 Projection: 3/3.28/1.21/53/6 in 62 IP

717) Josh Fleming TB, LHP, 24.10 – Had an excellent MLB debut with a pitching line of 2.78/1.08/25/7 in 32.1 IP. He relies heavily on a sinker he throws 53.4% of time to go along with 2 effective secondaries (slider, change). 2021 Projection: 6/4.22/1.34/88 in 125 IP

718) Petey Halpin CLE, OF, 18.10 – Selected 95th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Halpin is a good overall hitter with plus speed and questionable power potential. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/14/66/.273/.335/.408/14

719) Dax Fulton MIA, LHP, 19.6 – Selected 40th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Fulton underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2020. He’s a 6’6”, 225 pound lefty with a plus, high spin curveball, a low 90’s fastball that he gets great extension on, and a developing change. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/4.09/1.29/163 in 161 IP

720) CJ Van Eyk TOR, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 42nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Van Eyk racked up K’s in the ACC with a fastball he can ramp up to 95 MPH, a plus breaking ball, and average change. Control has been a problem with a career 4.2 BB/9 in 176.2 IP (5.2 BB/9 in 20.2 IP in 2020). 2021 Projection: 10/4.27/1.35/166 in 175 IP

721) Alex De Jesus LAD, SS, 19.0 – De Jesus impressed in his pro debut in 2019 and moved quickly to stateside ball. He showed an ability to lift the ball with developing plus power. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 75/24/83/.261/.332/.457/4

722) Freddy Zamora MIL, SS, 22.5 – Selected 53rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Zamora is a potentially plus defensive shortstop who has shown strong bat to ball skills in the ACC (45/55 K/BB in 104 career games). He doesn’t have plus power or speed, but he was starting to tap into more power in 2019, and has been an aggressive base stealer with 33 steals in 40 attempts. A knee injury knocked out his entire 2020 season. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/15/65/.264/.326/.418/13

723) Casey Martin PHI, SS, 22.0 – Selected 87th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Martin has a plus power/speed combo with considerable upside, but is still very raw at the plate with a 101/40 K/BB in 81 SEC games over the last two years. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/19/69/.241/.316/.428/13

724) Gage Workman DET, 3B, 21.5 – Selected 102nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Workman is young for his college class and has impressive raw tools at 6’4”, 195 pounds, but is still very raw overall with a mediocre 138/48 K/BB in 124 career Pac 12 games (21/5 K/BB in 17 games in 2020). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 64/22/71/.245/.318/.437/7

725) Aaron Ashby MIL, LHP, 22.10 – Fastball ticked up in 2020 and is now sitting in the mid 90’s, but secondaries and control need to improve for him to remain in the rotation. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 8/4.12/1.35/155 in 148 IP

726) Tahnaj Thomas PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Mid 90’s fastball with a slider that flashes plus and developing change. Has only been pitching for a few years. Broke out in 2019 in the Appy League with a pitching line of 3.17/1.12/59/14 in 48.1 IP ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/3.91/1.33/125 in 121 IP

727) Cole Henry WASH, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 55th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Henry is a power pitcher at 6’4”, 211 pounds with a plus mid 90’s fastball, but struggles with consistency and locating his secondaries. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.16/1.31/159 in 165 IP

728) Johnny Cueto SF, RHP, 35.1 – Hasn’t been the same since his fastball dropped from about 93 MPH to 91 MPH. 5.40 ERA is backed up by a 4.84 xERA. 2021 Projection: 7/4.46/1.34/132 in 155 IP

729) Alex Wood SF, LHP, 30.3 – Return to LA was not able to rejuvenate Wood, as shoulder inflammation limited him to 12.2 IP with a 6.39 ERA. 2021 Projection: 6/4.49/1.35/116 in 130 IP

730) Buster Posey SF, C, 34.0 – Opted out of the 2020 season, but it was announced he will be the primary catcher in 2021. Maybe the year off can rejuvenate Posey because he was in a decline phase in 2018 (.741 OPS) and 2019 (.688 OPS). 2021 Projection: 52/10/51/.265/.335/.396/1

731) Ross Stripling TOR, RHP, 31.4 – Whiff% dropped 5.6% to a career low 18.9% en route to a down season with a 5.84 ERA. No guarantee of a rotation spot. 2021 Projection: 7/4.35/1.32/118 in 130 IP

732) Joey Wendle TB, 3B/2B/SS, 30.11 – Strong side of a platoon/super utility/Tampa mish mosh role. He’ll chip in some average and steals, but unless he can lock down a full time role hitting at the top of the order, his value will be very limited. 2021 Projection: 58/8/51/.267/.324/.405/12

733) Estevan Florial NYY, OF, 23.6 – Explosive tools with a major hit tool problem that he reportedly worked on at alternate camp. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 73/17/66/.234/.312/.422/13

734) Kevin Alcantara NYY, OF, 18.9 – Huge raw talent at 6’6”, 188 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, but a .665 OPS in his pro debut shows there is a long way to go. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 66/21/73/.262/.325/.462/12

735) Angel Martinez CLE, SS, 19.2 – Lived up to his advanced plate approach scouting report in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, slashing .306/.402/.428 with 1 homer, 11 steals, and a 29/29 K/BB in 56 games. Power should develop as he matures. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/18/71/.274/.345/.421/14

736) Andry Lara WASH, RHP, 18.3 – Signed for $1.25 million in 2019, the 6’5”, 235 pound Lara has a fastball that can reach 96 MPH with an advanced feel for pitching and the potential for two quality secondaries in his slider and change. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.84/1.25/178 in 174 IP

737) Eddy Yean PIT, RHP, 19.9 – Fastball sits in the mid 90’s with a potentially plus slider and developing change. Upside is considerable but is still on the raw side. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.32/168 in 167 IP

738) Mason Denaburg WASH, RHP, 21.4 – Has been injury prone with biceps tendinitis in 2018 and minor shoulder surgery in 2019. He’s 6’4”, 195 pounds with big stuff, but health concerns has dimmed the hype a bit. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.27/160 in 160 IP

739) Ryan Jensen CHC, RHP, 23.4 – Jensen throws both his 4 seamer and 2 seamer at 96 MPH with a potentially above average slider and developing changeup. He doesn’t have a long history as a starter and needs to improve his control, so reliever risk is high. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 7/3.91/1.33/120 in 115 IP

740) Daniel Vazquez KC, SS, 17.3 – At 6’2”, 158 pounds, Vasquez stands out for his good feel to hit and quick swing. Power and speed both project to be in the average to above average range. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/18/69/.278/.340/.426/12

741) Shalin Polanco PIT, OF, 17.2 – Polanco has a sweet lefty swing that projects to produce power in the future as his 6’0”, 170 pound frame fills out. The ingredients for plus hit and speed are there as well. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/22/79/.268/.330/.447/9

742) Yiddi Cappe MIA, SS, 18.6 – Cappe is athletic and projectable at 6’3”, 175 pounds. Ultimate projection could take on any number of different directions depending on how his body fills out. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 71/20/74/.263/.324/.441/12

743) Alejandro Pie TB, SS, 19.2 – Signed for $1.4 million in 2018, Pie has a potentially plus power/speed combo and had a solid pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2019. At 6’4”, 175 pounds, he’s a high upside lottery ticket. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/21/76/.258/.320/.445/16

744) Ambioris Tavarez ATL, SS, 17.4 – Tavarez is 6’2”, 175 pounds with a quick and powerful swing that foreshadows at least plus power potential. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.246/.325/.457/8

745) Seth Brown OAK, 1B/OF, 28.9 – Khris Davis trade opens up playing time at DH, but there will be a lot of competition for at bats. Brown is a low average power hitter with above average speed. 2021 Projection: 33/9/37/.228/.390/.419/4

746) Sheldon Neuse OAK, 2B/3B, 26.5 – Will compete for 2B at-bats in the Spring. Neuse hits it hard with a line drive approach and a high strikeout rate. 2021 Projection: 44/12/47/.251/.301/.411/0

747) Ian Desmond COL, OF, 35.6 – Opted out of the 2020 season. He’ll be in competition for playing time and could end up in the short side of a platoon role. 2021 Projection: 54/15/53/.253/.311/.434/6

748) Michael Taylor KC, OF, 30.0 – Plus power/speed combo whose high strikeout rates have prevented a breakout. He did have a career low 28.7% whiff% in 2020, and has a shot at playing time in KC, so he is not the worst late round pick in deep leagues. 2021 Projection: 49/13/49/.235/.295/.395/15

749) Tyler Duffey MIN, Setup, 30.3 – Utterly dominated for the 2nd year in a row with a pitching line of 1.88/0.79/31/6 in 24 IP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.41/1.11/73/7 in 60 IP

750) Ken Giles FA, Setup, 30.6 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in September and will miss all of 2021. No guarantee he will be handed a closer job when he returns. 2021 Projection: OUT

751) Danny Duffy KC, LHP, 32.3 – K% ticked up to a 4 year high at 23.6%, but it didn’t help his ERA at all with a 4.95 ERA. 2021 Projection: 8/4.56/1.34/140 in 150 IP

752) Randy Dobnak MIN, RHP, 26.2 – Groundball pitcher (1.2 degree launch angle against) with a low strikeout rate (13.5%). 2020 Projection: 8/4.25/1.34/100 in 150 IP

753) Steven Matz TOR, LHP, 29.10 – Move to Toronto opens up a rotation spot but he enters a tough environment for pitchers in the AL East. He got rocked for a 9.68 ERA in 30.2 IP, but to find a silver lining his 4-seam velocity ticked up 1.2 MPH to 94.5 MPH. 2021 Projection: 8/4.52/1.39/148 in 155 IP

754) Kyle Gibson TEX, RHP, 33.5 – K% dropped to 19.3% after ticking up the last two seasons and hit a career worst 10% BB%. Velocity on all of his pitches dropped about 1 MPH from 2019 en route to a 5.35 ERA in 67.1 IP 2021 Projection: 9/4.58/1.43/150 in 165 IP

755) Brandon Crawford SF, SS, 34.3 – Career high .209 ISO and 24.4% K%. Maybe the power uptick is partly real after the Giants ballpark modifications. 2021 Projection: 68/17/72/.246/.315/.408/3

756) Alerick Soularie MIN, OF, 21.9 – Selected 59th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Soularie projects as a solid overall hitter with a moderate power/speed combo. He put up strong K/BB numbers throughout his amateur career, but his production has been a bit up and down. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 71/17/67/.271/.328/.418/8

757) Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 22.7 – Selected 56th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Allen pounds the strike zone with low 90’s heat, a plus changeup, and an average curve. He dominated all 3 seasons in Conference USA with a pitching line of 3.33/1.14/246/47 in 183.2 IP. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.17/1.28/165 in 173 IP

758) Tyler Keenan SEA, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 107th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Keenen raked all 3 years in the SEC with 31 career homers in 139 games (7 homers in 17 games in 2020). At 6’4”, 250 pounds the power is certainly for real, but limited defensive value puts pressure on the bat. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 52/18/61/.244/.322/.456/1

759) Shea Langeliers ATL, C, 23.5 – Plus defensive catcher who will get ranked higher on real life lists than fantasy. The bat isn’t expected to be a difference maker. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 61/19/66/.262/.325/.426/1

760) Patrick Bailey SF, C, 21.10 – Selected 13th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Bailey is a plus defensive catcher who is more valuable in real life than fantasy. He does have average to above average power, but it is not likely to come with a good batting average. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 55/17/63/.242/.314/.429/1

761) Armando Cruz WASH, SS, 17.2 – Expected to receive a signing bonus of around $4 million, Cruz’ best comps are Andrelton Simmons and Jose Iglesias. He’s known for his slick defense, and should hit for a solid average with below average power and average speed. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/13/61/.273/.321/.402/11

762) Victor Acosta SD, SS, 16.10 – Acosta projects as a plus defense shortstop with the offensive tools to hit at the top of the order. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/14/66/.263/.324/.413/15

763) Daniel Bard COL, Closer, 35.9 – Won the comeback player of the year after not having pitched in the majors since 2013. Bard throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a 97.1 MPH fastball. 2021 Projection: 2/4.21/1.36/55/23 in 55 IP

764) Tyler Ivey HOU, RHP, 24.11 – Had no issues in Double-A in 2019 with a pitching line of 1.57/0.96/61/16 in 46 IP. Throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a plus fastball/curveball combo. 2021 Projection: 2/4.56/1.37/46 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 7/3.82/1.29/118 in 111 IP

765) Juan Then SEA, RHP, 21.2 – Then has good control over his mid 90’s heat and has the potential for two quality secondaries in his slider and change. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/4.23/1.31/161 in 165 IP

766) Gregory Soto DET, Closer Committee, 26.2 – In the mix for saves. Slings a 97.3 MPH fastball with a plus slider. 2021 Projection: 3/4.17/1.35/66/17 in 60 IP

767) Andrew Miller STL, Closer Committee, 35.11 – Saved 4 games in 2020 and should be in the mix for saves in 2021. Velocity declined for the 4th year in a row, and dropped over 2 MPH just this season, but it hasn’t prevented his slider from being as dominant as ever (.124 xwOBA). 2021 Projection: 3/3.92/1.28/61/9 in 52 IP

768) Micker Adolfo CHW, OF, 24.6 – Has been riddled with injuries since 2015. When healthy, he’s shown at least plus raw power, although the strikeout rates have been consistently high. 2021 Projection: 22/6/25/.220/.290/.401/1 Prime Projection: 67/23/76/.248/.324/.451/2

769) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 18.1 – Signed for $2.5 million in 2019, Rodriguez is 5’11”, 200 plus pounds who should hit for plus power at peak and has an advanced feel at the dish. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/25/84/.261/.341/.473/7

770) Benyamin Bailey CHW, OF, 19.6 – 6’4”, 215 pound beast with the potential for plus power. Performed well in his pro debut in 2019 in the Dominican Summer League, slashing .324/.477/.454 with 2 homers, 10 steals, and a 40/52 K/BB in 55 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/23/79/.253/.338/.474/8

771) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 20.1 – Held his own against advanced competition at the alt site and stood out for his athleticism at instructs. He had a beastly pro debut in rookie ball, slashing .349/.403/.514 with 2 homers, 5 steals and a 20/9 K/BB in 31 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 79/21/75/.258/.326/.434/16

772) Bryan Garcia DET, Closer Committee, 25.11 – Notched 4 saves in September. Relies heavily on his 94.4 MPH sinker 2021 Projection: 3/4.33/1.37/54/13 in 60 IP

773) Sean Doolittle CIN, Closer Committee, 34.6 – Right knee inflammation and an oblique strain limited Doolittle to 7.2 IP in 2020. He didn’t pitch well in those innings either with a 5.87 ERA and a 2.8 MPH velocity decline. He’ll compete for saves in Cincy. 2021 Projection: 2/4.11/1.34/46 in 48 IP

774) Jacob Stallings PIT, C, 31.3 – K% mushroomed 9% to 28% and FB/LD exit velocity dropped 1.4 MPH to 91 MPH. 2021 Projection: 42/11/45/.252/.318/.385/0

775) Max Stassi LAA, C, 30.0 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip in October with a 4-6 month timetable. Power exploded (91.6 MPH exit velocity) and K% plummeted (20%) en route to a career year with 7 homers and a .278 BA in 31 games. 2021 Projection: 37/12/41/.239/.321/.409/0

776) Jordan Luplow CLE, OF, 27.6 – Short side of a platoon role. Luplow struggles mightily vs righties (.589 career OPS) and mashes lefties (.982 career OPS). 2021 Projection: 49/14/47/.248/.337/.451/4

777) Jose Marmolejos SEA, OF, 28.3 – Strong side of a platoon bat at best. Hit it hard in his MLB debut with 6 homers and a 90.5 MPH exit velocity in 115 PA. He’s also shown a good feel to hit with reasonable strikeout rates throughout his minor league career. 2021 Projection: 36/12/41/.241/.294/.413/1

778) Rio Ruiz BAL, 3B, 26.10 – Strong side of a platoon. He’ll provide a bit of pop and that is about it. 2020 Projection: 49/15/56/.242/.311/.413/0

779) Bradley Zimmer CLE, OF, 28.4 – Will compete for an OF job in the spring, but his lack of a hit tool (.162 BA in 50 PA in 2020) continues to hold back his power/speed combo. 2021 Projection: 33/7/31/.221/.308/.376/12

780) Zack Collins CHW, C, 25.2 – No clear path to playing time with Chicago and will need a trade to get full time at bats. He has plus power and patience, but retaining catcher eligibility throughout his career is a major question mark. 2021 Projection: 32/9/35/.223/.316/.403/0 Prime Projection: 52/18/55/.241/.333/.434/0

781) JA Happ MIN, LHP, 38.5 – Bounced back from a down 2019 with a pitching line of 3.47/1.0542/15 in 49.1 IP. He doesn’t hold much dynasty value as a 38 year old pitcher with below average K rates, but he can provide solid innings, especially in deeper leagues. 2021 Projection: 8/4.31/1.33/133 in 158 IP

782) Adam Wainwright FA, RHP, 39.7 – Surface stats bounced back with a 3.15 ERA, but a .247 BABIP and 4.52 xERA shows it was mostly good fortune. 2021 Projection: 9/4.32/1.35/130 in 155 IP

783) Jon Lester WASH, LHP, 37.3 – Velocity decline continued to a career low 89.4 MPH and it resulted in a 5.16 ERA in 61 IP. 2021 Projection: 8/4.65/1.36/124 in 153 IP

784) Chase Strumpf CHC, 2B, 23.1 – Strumpf has solid tools across the board but nothing standout. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 79/21/77/.268/.339/.442/5

785) Miguel Yajure PIT, RHP, 22.11 – Yajure has performed well throughout his minor league career with a 2.47 ERA in 291.2 IP, and that continued in his 7 IP MLB debut with a 1.29 ERA and a 8/5 K/BB. He throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 92.4 MPH and two swing and miss secondaries (change and curve). 2021 Projection: 2/4.36/1.34/48 in 52 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.07/1.30/156 in 163 IP

786) Hanser Alberto KC, 2B/3B, 28.5 – Will compete for the 2B job in Spring. Elite contact hitter with below average speed and very low exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 59/8/44/.286/.310/.392/5

787) Gabriel Rodriguez CLE, SS, 19.1 – Highly touted international prospect in 2018 who showed a good feel to hit and advanced approach, but doesn’t have big power or speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/20/76/.262/.329/.437/8

788) Tim Cate WASH, LHP, 23.6 – Changeup showed improvement at alternate camp to go along with his plus curveball and low 90’s fastball. Profiles as a back end starter. 2021 Projection: 1/4.55/1.44/32 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.29/148 in 154 IP

789) Bryan Abreu HOU, RHP, 24.0 – Throws two plus breaking balls with rack up strikeouts, but lack of fastball control could relegate him to a high K pen option. 2021 Projection: 2/4.12/1.33/47 in 42 IP Prime Projection: 6/3.75/1.29/111 in 97 IP

790) Cole Roederer CHC, OF, 21.6 – Performed well at instructs by increasing his power and letting it come more naturally with an up the middle approach. Also looked better vs secondary pitches. Roederer has the potential to be an all category contributor with some platoon risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/21/75/.262/.338/.453/11

791) Connor Scott MIA, OF, 21.6 – High upside prospect whose career pro numbers were mediocre in 2018-2019 (.652 OPS), but he has plus speed with the ability to grow into above average power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/18/73/.260/.322/.423/21

792) Alex Santos HOU, RHP, 19.2 – Selected 72nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Santos is 6’3”, 215 pounds with the potential for 3 quality pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and has the ability to throw strikes, but is still on the raw side. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.26/1.32/158 in 163 IP

793) Colt Keith DET, SS, 19.8 – Selected 132nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Keith is a two way player but is likely to be a position player long term. He’s 6’3”, 195 pounds with a potentially plus power/speed combo and average hit tool. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/21/77/.253/.321/.442/9

794) Carmen Mlodzinski PIT, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 31st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Mlodzinski features a heavy, sinking fastball that induces lots of grounders. His secondary pitches have been inconsistent, and a 7.8 K/9 in 25.1 IP in 2020 shows he doesn’t project for huge strikeout totals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.25/1.34/149 in 165 IP

795) Yadier Molina FA, C, 38.9 – Power declined with a career low 84.7 MPH exit velocity, and while his K% remained strong at 13.5%, his whiff% hit a career worst 23.9%. 2021 Projection: 49/12/56/.259/.309/.398/2

796) Noah Song BOS, RHP, 22.10 – It is unclear when or if Song with be available to pitch in 2021 due to his military service. He fell in the draft to 137th overall because of that risk, but on merit alone he likely would have been drafted within the first two rounds. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a slider and changeup that flash plus, but due to the lost development time, he may end up the bullpen. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 7/4.23/1.35/103 in 96 IP

797) Gabriel Moreno TOR, C, 21.2 – Showed elite contact rates (11.1%) with developing power (12 homers in 82 games at Full-A) in 2019, and he continued that success by impressing in his short stint at alternate camp in 2020. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 52/18/59/.273/.325/.426/2

798) Lucius Fox KC, SS, 23.9 – Double plus speed and being consistently young for his level are the two best things going for him. He also has below average power and a potentially average hit tool. 2021 Projection: 28/2/21/.228/.287/.342/7 Prime Projection: 67/7/48/.252/.315/.389/21

799) Ji-Hwan Bae PIT, 2B/SS, 21.8 – Prototypical lead off hitter with double plus speed and little power. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 78/8/53/.276/.343/.389/24

800) Tucupita Marcano SD, SS/3B/2B, 21.7 – Elite contact numbers translated to full season ball in 2019 with a 8.9% K%. Has plus speed but going 15 for 31 on the base paths show the base stealing skills need work. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/8/52/.283/.331/.391/15

801) Nick Allen OAK, SS, 21.6 – Not going to win you any leagues, but his plus defense gives him a chance to win a full time job eventually. Plus speed with a good feel to hit. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 78/9/55/.276/.339/.375/18

802) Jose Devers MIA, SS, 21.4 – Continued to show off his plus hit tool and plus speed at the alt site in 2020, but his power is projected to be well below average. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/7/48/.278/.335/.388/17

803) Luis Garcia PHI, SS, 20.6 – Showed increased power in 2020 which was necessary after a disaster 2019 season. He’s a plus defensive shortstop with the chance for solid offensive production across the board. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/15/65/.265/.326/.408/10

804) Chris McMahon COL, RHP, 22.2 – Selected 46th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, McMahon has the potential for 3 plus pitches, but sadly it doesn’t really matter because any pitcher picked by Colorado should be avoided in dynasty. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.33/1.35/158 in 165 IP

805) Mike Brosseau TB, 1B/3B, 27.1 – Super utility player with some pop and speed, but strikeout rates have been high in the majors. 2021 Projection: 48/13/48/.256/.318/.440/6

806) Luis Barrera OAK, OF, 25.4 – Barrera has plus speed with an aggressive line drive approach at the plate. He’s knocking on the door of the majors. 2021 Projection: 23/2/18/.244/.298/.386/4 Prime Projection: 67/12/61/.264/.321/.403/15

807) Mario Feliciano MIL, C, 22.4 – Power showed up at High-A in 2019 with a career high 19 homers and career low 38.4% GB% in 116 games. 28.8% K% and 6% BB% shows he is still raw at the plate. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 58/20/64/.244/.312/.422/1

808) Dexter Fowler LAA, OF, 35.0 – Missed the 2nd half of the season due to a compromised immune system. Career worst 84.5 MPH exit velocity, 27.7% K%, 9.9% BB%, and 26.6 fts/sec sprint speed. 2021 Projection: 65/16/63/.236/.322/.400/5

809) Michael Fulmer DET, RHP, 28.0 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in late March 2019, which came off surgery to repair a torn meniscus in September 2018. The rust showed in 2020 as Fulmer got absolutely slammed with a 8.78 ERA in 10 starts, never throwing over 65 pitches in any start. Velocity was down 2.7 MPH to 93 MPH on his sinker. 2021 Projection: 6/4.91/1.40/101 in 130 IP

810) Chad Kuhl PIT, RHP, 28.7 – Pitched well coming off Tommy John surgery with a 4.27 ERA and 44 K’s in 46.1 IP, but velocity was down 1.4 MPH on his sinker and his control was off with a 14.2% BB%. 2021 Projection: 6/4.58/1.42/125 in 135 IP

811) Steven Brault PIT, LHP, 28.11 – Surface stats looked good with a 3.38 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 42.2 IP, but a 38/22 K/BB and 4.85 xFIP are not as encouraging. 2021 Projection: 6/4.62/1.44/125 in 143 IP

812) Merrill Kelly ARI, RHP, 32.6 – Underwent surgery in September for thoracic outlet syndrome and is expected to be healthy for 2021. He was pitching really well before the injury with a pitching line of 2.59/0.99/29/5 in 31.1 IP, but the shoulder surgery is concerning. 2021 Projection: 7/4.48/1.35/120 in 140 IP

813) Kevin Padlo TB, 3B, 24.9 – Broke out at Double-A and Triple-A in 2019, slashing .265/.389/.538 with 21 homers, 12 steals and a 116/68 K/BB in 110 games. He’s going to have to hack and claw his way to get through Tampa’s extreme depth. 2021 Projection: 15/4/11/.225/.308/.424/2 Prime Projection: 68/20/64/.248/.335/.447/6

814) Jonathan Stiever CHW, RHP, 23.11 – Got rocked in his 6.1 IP MLB debut with a 9.95 ERA. He throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a potentially plus curveball. 2021 Projection: 2/4.51/1.36/52 in 56 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.10/1.31/161 in 169 IP

815) Matt Canterino MIN, RHP, 23.4 – Canterino throws a 4 pitch mix and has good but not great stuff. Likely profiles as a back end starter. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/4.22/1.32/152 in 163 IP

816) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 20.10 – Herrera has a potentially plus hit tool with a mature approach at the plate and developing power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 65/16/63/.272/.341/.414/1

817) Luis Frias ARI, RHP, 22.10 – Mid 90’s fastball with a plus curveball, but lacks a third pitch and control/command needs work, so reliever risk is high. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 6/4.14/1.35/122 in 120 IP

818) Matthew Thompson CHW, RHP, 20.8 – Thompson is a great athlete at 6’3”, 195 pounds with a plus fastball/curve combo and average change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.01/1.32/165 in 166 IP

819) Ian Seymour TB, LHP, 22.4 – Selected 57th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Seymour was dominating before the season got shut down with a 2.21 ERA and 40/5 K/BB in 20.1 IP. He has a plus fastball/changeup combo but needs to improve his breaking ball. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 8/4.07/1.30/148 in 152 IP

820) Nick Swiney SF, LHP, 22.2 – Selected 67th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Swiney moved into the rotation in 2020 and excelled in 4 starts with a 1.29 ERA and 46/6 K/BB. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, sitting in the low 90’s, but his curveball and changeup both have the potential to be at least above average offerings. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.15/1.33/156 in 162 IP

821) Kyle Nicolas MIA, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 61st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Nicolas showed improved control of his mid 90’s fastball in 2020, bringing his BB/9 down from 8.3 to 2.7. He throws 3 secondaries with his slider as the money pitch. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 8/3.97/1.36/158 in 149 IP

822) Joey Cantillo CLE, LHP, 21.3 – Throws a plus changeup and dominated at Full-A in 2019 with a pitching line of 1.93/0.87/128/27 in 98 IP. High 80’s/low 90’s fastball will likely have to tick up for him to take the next step. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.13/1.32/158 in 163 IP

823) Hayden Cantrelle MIL, SS, 22.4 – Selected 151st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Cantrelle put up big OBP and stolen base numbers throughout his college career (career .405 OBP with 50 steals in 135 games). It comes with some strikeouts and he was only hitting .136 before the Covid shutdown. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 70/12/53/.247/.330/.403/17

824) Trevor Hauver NYY, OF, 22.4 – Selected 99th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Hauver is a high OBP hitter (career .426 OBP at Arizona State) with at least average power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/18/68/.253/.327/.426/2

825) Tucker Davidson ATL, LHP, 24.0 – Throws a 4 pitch mix with the chance for 3 average to above average pitches, and has pitched well in the upper levels of the minors, but Atlanta has so much pitching depth, there is a good chance he ends up in the pen. 2021 Projection: 1/4.52/1.42/21 in 22 IP Prime Projection: 6/4.09/1.30/96 in 93 IP

826) Colin Barber HOU, OF, 20.4 – Barber has a quick bat with above average raw power and speed. Solid pro debut in 2019, slashing .263/.387/.394 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 29/19 K/BB in 28 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/15/67/.258/.325/.416/11

827) Casey Schmitt SF, 3B/RHP, 22.1 – Selected 49th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Schmitt has the potential to become a power hitting third baseman and/or a bullpen arm if the hitting doesn’t work out. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: Hitting-51/15/55/.247/.312/.422/2 – Pitching-1/4.16/1.32/13 in 15 IP

828) Alex Faedo DET, RHP, 25.5 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in January 2021 and is expected to miss all of 2021. When healthy he throws an above average fastball/slider combo with a developing change. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 8/4.29/1.33/149 in 156 IP

829) Yoendrys Gomez NYY, RHP, 21.5 – A projectable 6’3”, 175 pounds, Gomez has a mid 90’s fastball with a potentially plus curve, developing change, and the ability to throw all of them for strikes. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.18/1.31/158 in 163 IP

830) Kohl Franklin CHC, RHP, 21.7 – Franklin is a projectable 6’4”, 190 pounds with a plus fastball/change combo and an average curve, but needs to improve his control and command. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.34/156 in 163 IP

831) Nicky Lopez KC, 2B, 26.1 – Strikeout rate spiked to 21.4% and was 0 for 5 in stolen base attempts in 56 games. 2021 Projection: 49/3/36/.252/.318/.344/6

832) Mike Tauchman NYY, OF, 30.4 – Power completely disappeared with 0 homers and an 84.9 MPH exit velocity in 111 PA. Strong BB% (12.6%) and speed (6 steals), were still there, so if the power bounces back he could carve out a role in the Yanks righty heavy lineup. 2021 Projection: 39/7/37/.255/.351/.401/6

833) Matt Wallner MIN, OF, 23.4 – Wallner has double plus raw power that he had no problem getting to in Conference USA (58 homers in 3 years) and in his pro debut in 2019 (8 homers in 65 games in mostly the Appy League), but it comes with a high strikeout rate (27% K%). ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 70/22/79/.248/.331/.462/2

834) Tim Locastro ARI, OF, 28.9 – Blazing fast with a 30.7 sprint speed and continued his perfect streak on the base paths, going 4 for 4 (26 for 26 in his career). 2021 Projection: 45/5/23/.261/.333/.393/15

835) Roman Quinn PHI, OF, 28.1 – Elite 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed with 12 steals in 116 PA, but strikeout rate hit a career worst 33.6%. He’ll have to compete for playing time. 2021 Projection: 32/5/25/.233/.298/.362/17

836) Aristides Aquino CIN, OF, 26.11 – Couldn’t back up his 2019 breakout with a .170 BA and 32.1% K% in 56 PA in 2020. Power/speed combo is still there, but it will be a battle for playing time and a very short leash. 2021 Projection: 36/13/39/.229/.298/.445/4

837) Matt Carpenter STL, 3B, 35.4 – Coming off a down 2019 (.726 OPS), he bottomed out even more in 2020 with a .186 BA and .640 OPS. Arenado trade hurts his playing time projection. 2021 Projection: 57/14/55/.222/.333/.427/2

838) Adam Haseley PHI, OF, 25.0 – K% dropped to 18.5% in 92 PA, but he hit 0 homers with 0 steals and his sprint speed dropped to a below average 26.8 ft/sec. 2021 Projection: 36/5/30/.269/.330/.387/5

839) Anthony Alford PIT, OF, 26.8 – Fractured right elbow ended his season in September. Alford has plus speed (29.7 ft/sec sprint speed) but power and hit tool have not developed. Pitt’s lack of talent gives him a shot at playing time and the opportunity to reach his potential. 2021 Projection: 46/8/41/.232/.298/.377/12

840) Taylor Walls TB, SS, 24.9 – Plus defensive shortstop with a good feel to hit, high walk rates, and some speed. 2021 Projection: 11/1/9/.246/.315/.372/2 Prime Projection: 74/13/62/.268/.343/.402/13

841) Vince Velasquez PHI, RHP, 28.10 – The high strikeout rate (29.9% K%) makes for enticing upside, but 2020 was the fourth year in a row he had an ERA 4.85 or higher. .373 BABIP and 4.30 xERA gives some hope there are better days ahead. 2021 Projection: 7/4.52/1.40/148 in 130 IP

842) Robert Dominguez NYM, RHP, 19.4 – Dominguez has a huge fastball that has reached 99 MPH with a good feel for spin and a developing changeup. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.33/168 in 160 IP

843) Lenny Torres CLE, RHP, 20.6 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2019 and didn’t pitch much in 2020. When healthy, Torres has a plus fastball/slider combo with a developing change and looked more refined than expected in his 2018 pro debut. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.85/1.29/168 in 159 IP

844) Maikol Escotto PIT, 2B, 18.10 – Dominican League standout in 2019, slashing .315/.429/.552 with 8 homers, 13 steals and a 57/32 K/BB in 45 games. Escotto is a good athlete with plus speed and developing power. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/20/71/.255/.323/.439/13

845) Edward Olivares KC, OF, 25.1 – Made his MLB debut in 2020, and the only thing to standout was his plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint speed), but even that didn’t result in any stolen bases (0 for 2 in 101 PA). He has the potential for solid production across the board, but there is major 4th OF risk. 2021 Projection: 28/5/25/.254/.310/.401/6 Prime Projection: 66/13/62/.268/.324/.425/14

846) Lou Trivino OAK, Setup, 29.6 – Next man up in Oakland and has a chance to take away some saves from the lefty Diekman. Trivino throws a 5 pitch mix leaning heavily on his 3 fastballs (4-seam, sinker, cutter). 2021 Projection: 3/3.98/1.26/65/9 in 62 IP

847) Nick Wittgren CLE, Setup, 29.10 – Will be in the mix for saves if Karinchuk struggles or gets hurt. 3.42 ERA was much better than his 4.73 xERA, but Wittgren has been rock solid for 5 years now. 2021 Projection: 3/3.82/1.21/68 in 65 IP

848) Adam Ottavino BOS, Setup, 35.2 – Next man up in Boston. Ottavino got hit up in 2020 with a 5.89 ERA, but a 3.75 xERA and 3.78 xFIP shows there was some bad luck in play. 2021 Projection: 3/3.97/1.29/73/7 in 61 IP

849) Jordan Romano TOR, Setup, 27.11 – Next man up in Toronto. Romano threw his plus slider 59.9% of the time and his 96.5 MPH fastball put up a 52.4% whiff%. 2021 Projection: 3/3.68/1.25/68 in 59 IP

850) Pete Fairbanks TB, Setup, 27.3 – Anderson and Castillo are the favorite for saves but Fairbanks could sneak in a few too. He throws 97.4 MPH heat with a plus slider that has led to high strikeout and walk rates. 2021 Projection: 3/3.66/1.28/80/8 in 63 IP

851) Chris Flexen SEA, RHP, 26.9 – Pitched well in Korea in 2020 with a pitching line of 3.01/1.09/132/20 in 116.2 IP, but he has a career 8.07 ERA in 68 IP in the majors. He did show improved stuff in the KBO with his fastball ticking up, so he could be worth a late round flier. 2021 Projection: 7/4.53/1.36/131 in 145 IP

852) Logan Webb SF, LHP, 24.5 – Knocked around with a 5.47 ERA and a 46/24 K/BB in 54.1 IP. He’s a back end starter with mid rotation upside. 2021 Projection: 7/4.51/1.41/118 in 140 IP

853) Trevor May NYM, Setup, 31.7 – Elite 39.6% K%. Hit a career high 96.3 MPH velocity on the fastball. 2021 Projection: 3/3.47/1.14/85 in 65 IP

854) Alex Cobb LAA, RHP, 33.6 – Doesn’t strike many guys out, and gets hit hard. The move from Baltimore to LA at least gives him the chance to be serviceable. 2021 Projection: 9/4.39/1.36/115 in 160 IP

855) Freddy Galvis BAL, 2B/SS, 31.5 – Days of chipping in stolen bases seem to be over with a 25.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 1 steal in 47 games. He’ll provide some pop and that is about it. 2021 Projection: 63/17/61/.242/.301/.402/4

856) Dakota Hudson STL, RHP, 26.7 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in September and will miss all of 2021. K/BB numbers and xFIP’s have been poor, but it hasn’t stopped him from posting a career 3.17 ERA in 241 IP. 2021 Projection: OUT

857) Joe Ross WASH, RHP, 27.10 – Opted out of the 2020 season. Favorite for the 5th starter job. He didn’t pitch well overall in 2019, but the results were better down the stretch with a 2.75 ERA and 32/20 K/BB in final 39.1 IP. 2021 Projection: 6/4.62/1.42/98 in 110 IP

858) Shed Long SEA, 2B/OF, 25.7 – He’ll have to prove himself in Spring Training to win at-bats after hitting .171 in 2020. He doesn’t hit the ball very hard (87.1 MPH exit velocity) and has an elevated K% (28.9%). 2021 Projection: 34/7/31/.242/.308/.391/5

859) Jorge Mateo SD, SS, 25.9 – Ticketed for a bench role with San Diego’s jam packed lineup. He struggled in his MLB debut with a 39.3% K% and .154 BA in 28 PA. 29 ft/sec sprint speed shows the speed is for real. 2021 Projection: 21/4/17/.233/.291/.373/9

860) Franklin Barreto LAA, 2B, 25.1 – Underwent shoulder surgery in September. Slated for a utility role in 2021. He has a plus power/speed combo but hasn’t been able to overcome a weak hit tool 2021 Projection: 25/7/25/.227/.290/.402/6

861) Greg Deichmann OAK, OF, 25.10 – Big time power with high strikeout rates. Crushed 9 homers in 23 games in the Arizona Fall League in 2019. These types of power bats always seems to work their way into Oakland’s lineup by their late 20’s. 2021 Projection: 12/3/15/.228/.297/.412/1 Prime Projection: 58/18/64/.243/.325/.450/6

862) Josh Staumont KC, Setup, 27.3 – Flings a 98 MPH fastball with a plus curve, but a 14.3% BB% makes it a tight rope act. 2021 Projection: 3/4.08/1.37/76/10 in 61 IP

863) Cole Tucker PIT, OF, 24.9 – Struggled for the 2nd year in a row in the majors, slashing .220/.252/.275 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 31/5 K/BB in 116 PA. The raw talent is there at 6’3”, 205 pounds with plus athleticism, but it hasn’t materialized yet. 2021 Projection: 33/5/30/.239/.299/.361/7

864) Burl Carraway CHC, LHP, 21.10 – Selected 51st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Carraway is a back end bullpen arm who has elite stuff with an upper 90’s fastball and put away curveball, but struggles with his control. Should be a fast mover. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 3/3.71/1.27/81 in 68 IP

865) Ryan Rolison COL, LHP, 23.9 – Mid rotation upside, but at Coors Field that is more like a back end fantasy starter. 2021 Projection: 2/4.77/1.45/41 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 12/4.33/1.32/167 in 173 IP

866) Michel Baez SD, 25.2 – With San Diego’s jam packed rotation it looks like Baez will need a trade to be given a shot as a starter. He fires a mid 90’s fastball with a potentially plus change. 2021 Projection: 2/4.08/1.34/51 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 5/3.93/1.32/96 in 91 IP

867) Elehuris Montero STL, 3B, 22.8 – Wrist injuries tanked Montero’s season at Double-A in 2019 with a .188 BA and 7 homers in 59 games. He’s still raw at the plate and it was a down year no matter how you slice it, but the plus bat speed and plus raw power still give him the ingredients to breakout with more experience and refinement. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 66/23/77/.252/.325/.461/2

868) Jack Herman PIT, OF, 21.6 – Hit tool didn’t look as good in 2019 at Full-A as it did in his pro debut in rookie ball (14.2% K% vs. 29.3% K%), but the game power broke out with 13 homers in 75 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/23/76/.244/.323/.458/5

869) Jerar Encarnacion MIA, OF, 23.5 – Made improvements to his plate approach and impressed with his power at alt camp. At 6′4”, 220 pounds, Encarnacion is a power hitting beast with hit tool concerns. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 62/22/71/.243/.310/.454/2

870) Freudis Nova HOU, SS, 21.3 – Still learning to refine his plate approach, but Nova has high upside with plus bat speed and plus power potential. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 72/21/79/.261/.322/.442/9

871) Ronaldo Hernandez TB, C, 23.5 – Plus raw power but there are hit tool and defense concerns. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 53/18/63/.253/.308/.435/2

872) Korey Lee HOU, C, 22.8 – Lee is a power hitting catcher who jacked 15 homers in 51 games in the PAC-12 in 2019, but he’ll need to start lifting the ball more to get to all of his raw power (52.3% GB% in his pro debut at Short-A). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 51/18/59/.258/.326/.422/4

873) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 22.7 – Brown throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a mid 90’s fastball and plus curveball, but will need to improve his control to remain a starter. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 5/3.95/1.35/103 in 100 IP

874) JB Wendelken OAK, Setup, 28.0 – Throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 94.6 MPH fastball and plus slider. 2021 Projection: 3/3.72/1.18/67 in 60 IP

875) Joely Rodriguez TEX, Setup, 29.5 – Lat and hamtring strains limited him to 12.2 IP, but he looked great in those innings with a pitching line of 2.13/1.03/17/5. Throws a 3 pitch mix headlined by a plus sinker and changeup. 2021 Projection: 3/3.47/1.18/68 in 57 IP

876) Rowan Wick CHC, Setup, 28.4 – Next man up in Chicago. Increased usage of his cutter which put up a .090 xwOBA to go along with mid 90’s heat and a plus curveball. 2021 Projection: 3/3.65/1.26/65 in 59 IP

877) Alec Mills CHC, RHP, 29.4 – Back end starter with high 80’s/low 90’s heat and good control. 2021 Projection: 8/4.42/1.31/121 in 145 IP

878) Francisco Mejia TB, C, 25.5 – The Rays look to be set on using Mejia as a catcher. He wiped out completely in 2020 with a .077 BA in 42 PA. He’s shown a good feel to hit with the ability to lift the ball in the past, so there is some talent in there for the Rays to work with. 2021 Projection: 22/6/25/.244/.301/.409/1

879) Lewis Brinson MIA, OF, 26.11 – Took a small step forward with a career best 26.8% K%, but it still only resulted in a .226 BA. Plus power/speed combo is still there, so a late career breakout is the hope here. 2021 Projection: 36/9/37/.232/.291/.392/5

880) Nomar Mazara FA, OF, 25.11 – Bottomed out in 2020 with a 29.5% K% and .589 OPS in 136 AB. Likely looking at a part time role at best. 2021 Projection: 42/13/47/.246/.312/.424/1

881) DJ Peters LAD, OF, 25.4 – Power, patience, and a ton of strikeouts. 2021 Projection: 9/2/11/.221/.298/.430/1 Prime Projection: 58/18/62/.237/.321/.452/3

882) Antonio Cabello NYY, OF, 20.5 – Couldn’t repeat his 2018 success in the more advanced Appy League in 2019, striking out .30.7% of the time, but the exciting raw tools are all still there. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 67/18/71/.256/.321/.446/12

883) Matt Moore PHI, LHP, 31.9 – Played in Japan in 2020 where he put up a pitching line of 2.65/1.12/98/26 in 85 IP. His fastball reportedly topped out at 95 MPH. 2021 Projection: 7/4.66/1.42/119 in 135 IP

884) Brandon Williamson SEA, LHP, 23.0 – Williamson has the chance for 4 quality pitches headlined by a plus curveball, but he has had trouble maintaining his velocity as he gets deeper into starts. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.34/134 in 143 IP

885) Taj Bradley TB, RHP, 20.0 – Fastball ticked up into the mid 90’s at instructs to go along with a potentially above average curve and developing change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 6/4.24/1.36/129 in 125 IP

886) Owen Miller CLE, SS, 24.4 – Jumped straight to Double-A in his first full season of pro ball in 2019 and performed well with a 15.4% K%, but with only average power and not much speed there isn’t much fantasy upside. 2021 Projection: 19/2/15/.258/.313/.395/1 Prime Projection: 72/14/61/.272/.331/.407/5

887) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 19.11 – Solid tools across the board. Potentially plus defense at SS was a major reason he was selected 30th overall in the 2019 draft. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/16/71/.264/.327/.414/16

888) Osleivis Basabe TB, SS, 20.7 – Performed well at Venezuelan Winter League, slashing .360/.385/.488 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 7/3 K/BB in 91 PA. Basabe has a good feel to hit with plus speed and developing power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/13/51/.267/.328/.402/14

889) Jose Salas MIA, SS, 17.11 – Signed for $2.8 million in 2019, Salas is a projectable 6’2”, 180 pounds with a quick bat and good athleticism. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/21/77/.261/.333/.436/11

890) Richi Gonzalez HOU, OF, 18.3 – Gonzalez is a projectable 6’3”, 185 pounds with a plus power/speed combo. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/21/77/.251/.317/.448/14

891) Will Benson CLE, OF, 22.10 – Monster power with above average speed and major hit tool issues. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 38/13/41/.221/.310/.453/6

892) Mickey Moniak PHI, OF, 22.11 – Impressed at that alt site with improved power and a mature plate approach. It earned him a callup where he notched a .389 OBP in 18 PA. 2021 Projection: 28/4/26/.244/.302/.378/2 Prime Projection: 73/15/67/.268/.331/.412/9

893) Terrin Vavra LAA, SS, 23.11 – 13.7% K%, 13.7% BB%, 10 homers and 18 steals in at 102 games at Full-A in 2019. He was on the old side for the level, and the power/speed combo is average, but the potential for all category production is there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 69/14/61/.273/.331/.413/10

894) Denzer Guzman LAA, SS, 17.2 – Advanced plate approach with a good feel to hit and developing power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/18/71/.273/.344/.428/6

895) Jeisson Rosario BOS, OF, 21.6 – Rosario is an excellent athlete with a plus plate approach, but needs to start hitting the ball harder to make a true impact. ETA: 2023 2020 Projection: 78/11/61/.265/.341/.391/14

896) Drew Mendoza WASH, 1B, 23.6 – Made improvements to his hit tool and started to tap into more of his considerable raw power at alt camp. He’s a 6’5”, 230 pound lefty with limited defensive value. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 63/18/69/.242/.328/.451/3

897) D’Shawn Knowles LAA, OF, 20.2 – Switch hitter with double plus speed and developing power but hit tool is still raw. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 71/14/62/.250/.322/.410/16

898) Jeferson Espinal ARI, OF, 18.10 – Excellent athlete with plus speed. Currently more of a slap hitter with high groundball rates, but he’s so young it’s hard to put a cap on his possible development paths. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/15/69/.262/.332/.413/17

899) Anderson Espinoza SD, RHP, 23.1 – Underwent his second Tommy John surgery in April 2019. Returned in 2020 and his fastball was back to sitting in the mid 90’s at the alt site, but the secondaries were not there yet and he is obviously a major injury risk. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 6/4.22/1.35/103 in 110 IP

900) Eduardo Garcia MIL, SS, 18.9 – Fractured ankle limited him to only 10 games in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, but he played well in those 10 games with a good feel to hit and advanced plate approach. Plus defense is his calling card. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/16/71/.263/.331/.405/9

901) Landon Knack LAD, RHP, 23.8 – Selected 60th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Knack’s stuff ticked up in 2020 and he put up a ridiculous 51/1 K/BB in 25 IP at East Tennessee State. He throws strikes with a mid 90’s fastball that is his best pitch, but he is old for the class and secondaries still need improvement, ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 6/4.02/1.28/123 in 125 IP

902) Blayne Enlow MIN, RHP, 22.0 – Enlow is 6’3”, 210 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and improved changeup. Throws a 4 pitch mix but neither of his breaking balls stand out. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/4.28/1.35/155 in 163 IP

903) Ben Hernandez KC, RHP, 19.9 – Selected 41st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Hernandez dominates with an at least plus curveball and an advanced feel to pitch, but still needs to improve his breaking ball. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.31/147 in 155 IP

904) Zach Daniels HOU, OF, 22.2 – Selected 131st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Daniels has a plus power/speed combo and was in the midst of breaking out in 2020 with a 1.228 OPS, 4 homers, 3 steals, and a 14/13 K/BB in 17 games. His numbers looked rough before this season with a career .710 OPS, so the risk is very high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 61/15/65/.241/.308/.403/8

905) Jimmy Glowenke SF, SS, 21.10 – Selected 68th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Glowenke has hit everywhere he has played with a career .340 BA at Dallas Baptist and a .296 BA in the Cape Cod League in 2019. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 72/14/66/.278/.331/.406/3

906) Jesse Franklin ATL, OF, 22.4 – Selected 97th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Franklin broke his collarbone in a skiing accident and missed all of the shortened 2020 season. He performed well from the moment he stepped foot in the Big Ten with a .967 OPS his freshman year (.865 OPS Sophomore year), and has the potential to be a solid all around player. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 63/16/61/.245/.318/.418/6

907) Richie Martin BAL, SS, 26.3 – Missed all of 2020 after fracturing his wrist in July. Speed is his best asset with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed. 2021 Projection: 42/4/38/.232/.293/.355/10

908) Jaime Barria LAA, RHP, 24.8 – Pitched well in 2020 on the back of his slider which he threw 45.8% of the time, putting up a .196 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 6/4.41/1.33/99 in 110 IP

909) Trevor Richards TB, RHP, 27.11 – Back end starter/opener/follower/who knows. Throws a 3 pitch mix headline by a plus changeup. 2021 Projection: 6/4.51/1.37/93 in 100 IP

910) Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B, 24.10 – Struck out 40.8% of the time in his 49 PA 2019 MLB debut. He has big power, but it’s going to be a career long struggle for playing time with limited defensive value. 2021 Projection: 12/5/15/.227/.299/.426/0 Prime Projection: 46/15/52/.241/.318/.463/0

911) Jake Bauers CLE, OF/1B, 25.6 – Didn’t make the MLB roster in 2020 and will be in competition for a strong side of a platoon role at best in 2021. 2020 Projection: 36/9/34/.242/.331/.404/5

912) Esteury Ruiz SD, 2B, 22.1 – Plus athlete with plus speed but is still raw at the plate and hasn’t fully tapped into his raw power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 66/14/69/.249/.314/.438/16

913) Hudson Potts BOS, 3B, 22.5 – Low average, low OBP slugger who struggled against more advanced competition at Double-A in 2019. Strikeout rate jumped to 28.6% but still managed to knock 16 homers in 107 games. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 65/19/73/.240/.304/.455/2

914) Josh Smith NYY, SS, 23.8 – Smith hit well all three years in the SEC and then did the same in his pro debut at Short-A in 2019. He doesn’t have any standout tools, but the guy has hit everywhere he has been. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 61/14/58/.267/.328/.417/8

915) Rafael Morel CHC, SS, 19.5 – Plus hit, plus speed profile who hit well in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League, slashing .283/.373/.448 with 4 homers, 23 steals and a 38/26 K/BB in 60 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/11/57/.269/.326/.393/15

916) Brainer Bonaci BOS, SS, 18.9 – Advanced feel to hit with a mature plate approach, developing power and plus speed. He held his own against advanced competition at instructs. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/15/71/.268/334/.417/14

917) Jorge Ona SD, OF, 24.3 – Ona is 6’0”, 220 pounds with plus power, a questionable hit tool, and limited defensive value. He impressed enough at alternate camp for San Diego to call him up in September where he went 3 for 12 with a dinger and a 7/2 K/BB. 2021 Projection: 11/4/13/.221/.288/.419/0 Prime Projection: 46/14/53/.238/.302/.441/1

918) Ronnier Quintero CHC, C, 18.5 – Signed for $2.9 million in 2019, Quintero is an offense first catcher who has the potential to hit for both power and average, but is not a lock to stick behind the plate. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 65/20/71/.264/.332/.438/2

919) Danny De Andrade MIN, SS, 17.0 – De Andrade has a lightening quick swing with plus power potential and the ability to hit for average. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 71/20/77/.266/.328/.447/6

920) Justin Lange SD, RHP, 19.7 – Selected 34th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Lange throws a huge fastball that can reach the upper 90’s but secondaries and control are still very raw. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 6/4.21/1.36/114 in 120 IP

921) Jackson Chourio MIL, SS, 17.1 – Chourio is a projectable 6’1”, 165 pounds with the potential for a plus power/speed combo and an advanced hit tool. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/18/72/.268/.334/.428/13

922) Starlin Aguilar SEA, SS, 17.2 – Nicknamed “Baby Devers,” Aguilar has a quick lefty swing with the ability to hit for both average and power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/22/79/.268/.336/.451/5

923) Johan Rojas PHI, OF, 20.8 – Strong stateside debut in 2019, slashing .311/.393/.527 in the Gulf Coast League before inevitably struggling against more advanced competition at Short-A. Plus speed with a potentially above average hit tool and developing power that took at step forward in 2020. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/15/67/.258/.311/.415/16

924) Yhoswar Garcia PHI, OF, 19.7 – Garcia projects as a top of the order hitter with a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power at 6’1”, 150 pounds. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/14/68/.264/.326/.402/18

925) Brayan Buelvas OAK, OF, 18.10 – Pushed aggressively to stateside rookie ball in 2019 and responded with a .300/.392/.506 slash, 3 homers, 12 steals, and a 46/22 K/BB in 44 games. Has the potential for across the board production. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/16/72/.271/.338/.429/16

926) Blake Treinen LAD, Setup, 32.9 – Could be next in line for saves in LA. Treinen partly bounced back after a terrible 2019 with a 3.86 ERA and 22/8 K/BB in 25.2 IP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.60/1.22/58 in 61 IP

927) Matt Shoemaker FA, RHP, 34.6 – Right shoulder inflammation limited Shoemaker to 28.2 IP. He’s pitched over 136 innings only once in his career, but he’s proven to be a solid #4 type starter when healthy. 2021 Projection: 7/4.41/1.32/116 in 125 IP

928) James Kaprielian OAK, RHP, 27.1 – Injury history and lost development time makes Kaprielian a major pen risk, but the stuff is almost all the way back, showing off a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 95.1 MPH fastball in his MLB debut. 2021 Projection: 2/4.33/1.36/38 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.82/1.28/81 in 75 IP

929) Martin Perez BOS, LHP, 30.0 – Back end starter who does not strike many guys out. 2021 Projection: 8/4.71/1.48/120 in 160 IP

930) Nick Pivetta PHI, RHP, 29.1 – Closed out the season with two solid starts with Boston, giving him the inside track for the 5th starter job. His velocity dropped 1.8 MPH to 92.8 MPH, so I’m not sure there is much hope for the one time popular sleeper pick. 2020 Projection: 5/4.78/1.46/114 in 120 IP

931) Kolby Allard TEX, LHP, 23.8 – Fastball dropped back 0.9 MPH to 91.5 MPH and he doesn’t have a true put away pitch. It led to a 7.75 ERA in 33.2 IP 2021 Projection: 6/4.77/1.44/112 in 130 IP

932) Wil Crowe PIT, RHP, 26.7 – Trade to Pitt gives him a shot at a rotation spot. Got demolished in his MLB debut with an 11.88 ERA in 8.1 IP. He’s a back end starter with low 90’s heat and a 5 pitch mix. 2021 Projection: 4/4.88/1.51/92 in 120 IP

933) Yu Chang CLE, 3B, 25.5 – Likely ticketed for a utility role. Chang has a moderate power/speed combo, but hasn’t been able to hit enough in the majors (.179 BA in 97 career PA) to hold down a job. 2021 Projection: 21/5/19/.220/.295/.379/2

934) Jose Urena DET, RHP, 29.6 – Covid limited Urena to a rough 23.1 IP (5.40 ERA). He’s a low K back end starter. 2021 Projection: 6/4.80/1.42/105 in 140 IP

935) Jordan Lyles TEX, RHP, 30.6 – K% completely tanked to 13.5% (24.4% in 2019) which led to a 7.02 ERA in 57.2 IP. 2021 Projection: 7/5.11/1.48/112 in 140 IP

936) Reynaldo Lopez CHW, RHP, 27.3 – Hopes of a breakout are fading with another year of terrible production. Might be losing his rotation spot to Michael Kopech. 2021 Projection: 6/4.83/1.41/106 in 120 IP

937) Robinson Cano NYM, 2B, 38.5 – Suspended for the entire 2021 season after testing positive for a PED. He was in the midst of a bounce back season with an .896 OPS, and I guess we know why now. 2021 Projection: SUSPENDED

938) Albert Pujols LAA, 1B, 41.2 – Was no longer an everyday player in 2020, but he stills has strong contact numbers and some power. 2020 Projection: 42/15/50/.235/.294/.403/2

939) Tony Kemp OAK, 2B/OF, 29.5 – Strong side of a platoon role, but offers little upside offensively. 2021 Projection: 45/7/32/.246/.332/.373/9

940) Josh VanMeter ARI, 2B, 26.1 – Strikeout rate exploded to 30.4%, but underlying power numbers still looked good with an 89/93.3 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity and 15.1 degree launch angle. Playing time will be tough to find, but he has some fantasy friendly skills. 2021 Projection: 33/8/31/.246/.319/.425/5

941) Martin Maldonado HOU, C, 34.7 – In a timeshare with Jason Castro. He’ll provide average pop with a low BA. 2021 Projection: 42/12/45/.219/.301/.372/1

942) Jon Duplantier ARI, RHP, 26.9 – Elbow discomfort knocked out his entire 2020. He experienced bicep tendinitis in 2018 and shoulder inflammation in 2019. The injuries are piling up. 2021 Projection: 2/4.61/1.41/42 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 5/4.31/1.36/110 in 115 IP

943) Joe Palumbo TEX, LHP, 26.5 – Make that two disastrous years in a row in the majors with a 9.18 ERA in 16.2 IP in 2019 and an 11.57 ERA in 2.1 IP in 2020. He is a depth starter for the Rangers at this point. 2021 Projection: 2/4.51/1.42/55 in 55 IP

944) Seth Romero WASH, LHP, 25.0 – After missing all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Romero made his MLB debut in 2020 showing greatly reduced velocity with a 91.7 MPH fastball and 13.50 ERA in 2.2 IP. His season ended when he fractured his non pitching hand by slipping on steps. 2021 Projection: 1/4.71/1.40/26 in 25 IP Prime Projection: 6/4.34/1.33/131 in 125 IP

945) Pedro Severino BAL, C, 27.8 – His days are numbered as Baltimore’s primary catcher with Adley Rutschman knocking on the door. 2021 Projection: 32/9/36/.248/.320/.409/1

946) Chance Sisco BAL, C, 26.1 – Like Pedro Severino, he is just keeping the seat warm for Adley Rutschman 2021 Projection: 28/7/26/.222/.319/.406/1

947) Roberto Perez CLE, C, 32.3 – Numbers fell off a cliff in 2020 (.480 OPS) after a career year in 2019. 2020 Projection: 36/9/41/.216/.302/.372/0

948) Joey Wentz DET, LHP, 23.6 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and will be out until at least the 2nd half of 2021. When healthy, he throws a traditional 3 pitch mix headlined by a plus changeup. Unless he can add MPH to his low 90’s fastball, he will likely be a back end starter. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 8/4.32/1.34/135 in 142 IP

949) Anthony Bass MIA, Closer Committee, 33.5 – Could be in the mix for saves. Bass throws a plus sinker/slider combo. 2021 Projection: 3/ 4.02/1.28/50/8 in 56 IP

950) Elias Diaz COL, C, 30.4 – Makes good contact (career 17% K%) and has a little bit of pop (career 88.1 MPH exit velocity). 2021 Projection: 41/8/41/.248/.299/.382/0

951) Wade Miley CIN, LHP, 33.5 – Groin injury and shoulder strain limited him to 14.1 IP with a 5.65 ERA. Velocity on his cutter was down 1.5 MPH to 85.8 MPH. 2021 Projection: 6/4.75/1.43/126 in 145 IP

952) Rick Porcello FA, RHP, 32.3 – Rocked for the 2nd year in a row with a 5.64 ERA in 59 IP (5.52 ERA in 2019). He throws a 5 pitch mix relying heavily on his 90.1 MPH sinker. 2021 Projection: 9/4.72/1.40/145 in 165 IP

953) Mike Leake FA, RHP, 33.5 – Opted out of the 2020 season. He is a back of the rotation innings eater with a very low strikeout rate. 2020 Projection: 9/4.48/1.33/103 in 165 IP

954) Stuart Fairchild ARI, OF, 25.0 – Brought his K% down to 12.8% at Double-A in the 2nd half of 2019, and has shown the ability to lift the ball with above average speed. 2021 Projection: 14/2/12/.237/.300/.374/2 Prime Projection: 55/10/49/.253/.312/.421/8

955) Eric Lauer MIL, LHP, 25.10 – Got absolutely shelled with a 13.09 ERA in 11 IP. He was a former favorite of mine, but he’s looking like a back end starter at best. 2021 Projection: 6/4.68/1.40/112 in 120 IP

956) Griffin Conine MIA, OF, 23.9 – Put up great power numbers at Full-A in 2019 with 22 homers and a .946 OPS, but a 35.9% K% as a 21/22 year old at that level is very concerning. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 52/16/64/.232/.315/.443/3

957) Luis Alexander Basabe SF, OF, 24.7 – Displayed above average speed (27.9 ft/sec sprint speed with 2 steals in 18 PA) and high walk rates (22.2% K%), but hit tool and/or power will have to take a step forward to carve out playing time. 2021 Projection: 11/1/8/.222/.308/.368/3 Prime Projection: 58/12/55/.241/.322/.418/12

958) Corey Ray MIL, OF, 26.6 – He’s still tooled up with a plus power/speed combo, but the very high strikeout rate puts him on a late career breakout path at best. 2021 Projection: Prime Projection: 51/12/49/.225/.306/.408/10

959) Bubba Thompson TEX, OF, 22.10 – Great athlete but the hit tool is just not coming around. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 46/9/41/.232/.291/.402/11

960) Grant Lavigne COL, 1B, 21.7 – Stock took a step back in his full season debut in 2019 with an 86 MPH average exit velocity and 7 homers in 126 games. At 6’4”, 220 pounds you can’t call him projectable either. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 51/13/56/.255/.328/.436/2

961) Josh Fuentes COL, 1B, 28.1 – Weak exit velocity (84 MPH) with a high stirkeout rate (28.2%). Worth a flier only because he is in Colorado and they make wacky lineup decisions. 2021 Projection: 26/5/29/.234/.281/.394/1

962) Kendall Simmons PHI, 2B/3B, 21.0 – Simmons is a plus athlete with plus power but the hit tool needs improvement. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 53/14/57/.242/.318/.433/5

963) Joey Lucchesi NYM, LHP, 27.10 – Will likely fill a long man/rotation depth role for the Mets. He’s a back end starter with a plus curve and an 89.9 MPH 4-seamer. 2021 Projection: 5/4.52/1.35/100 in 100 IP

964) Jordan Yamamoto NYM, RHP, 24.11 – Got shellacked with an 18.26 ERA in 11.1 IP. He throws a 6-pitch mix but his 4-seamer sat at only 89.7 MPH. 2021 Projection: 4/4.72/1.39/107 in 105 IP

965) Nick Neidert MIA, RHP, 24.5 – Got destroyed in his MLB debut with a 5.40 ERA and 4/2 K/BB in 8.1 IP. Changeup is his best pitch but it got rocked for a 1.286 slugging. 2021 Projection: 2/4.81/1.40/41 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 7/4.42/1.35/126 in 141 IPw

966) Elio Prado BAL, OF, 19.4 – Stock rose in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, slashing .300/.403/.396 with 3 homers, 12 steals and a 36/30 K/BB in 60 games. Advanced plate approach with an above average power/speed combo. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/15/68/.261/.332/.413/12

967) Adam Hall BAL, SS, 21.10 – Plus speed is his best skill, stealing 33 bases in 122 games at Full-A in 2019. He does have some feel to hit and there is a bit more power in there if he can raise his launch angle, but utility infielder is his most likely outcome. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 52/8/45/.264/.314/.394/15

968) Brady McConnell KC, SS, 22.10 – McConnell has a plus power/speed combo but it comes with major hit tool risk (39.1% K% in 38 games at rookie ball in 2019). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 48/13/51/.232/.291/.423/7

969) Dauri Lorenzo HOU, SS, 18.5 – Signed for $1.8 million in 2019, Lorenzo is a switch hitter who makes hard contact with a line drive approach and some speed. He showed increased strength in 2020. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/14/69/.273/.338/.416/11

970) Estiven Machado TOR, SS, 18.6 – Machado is a plus athlete with plus bat speed and a good feel to hit. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/16/66/.273/.337/.412/15

971) Tre Fletcher STL, OF, 19.11 – Fletcher is a great athlete with a plus power/speed combo (4 homers and 7 steals in 43 game pro debut in 2019), but has extreme strikeout issues (43% K%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 57/15/58/.228/.291/.436/11

972) Devin Mann LAD, 2B/3B, 24.2 – Showed plus power (19 homers with a 45.1% FB%) and a solid plate approach (21.9% K%/10.6% BB%) in 98 games at High-A in 2019. He was old for the level, but there is a lot to like in Mann’s offensive profile. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 44/14/48/.254/.328/.443/3

973) Jhon Torres COL, OF, 21.0 – Terrible full season debut in 2019 with a .167 BA, 38.7% K% and 0 homers in 21 games. Huge raw power that he hasn’t completely tapped into is his carrying tool. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 62/16/67/.246/.323/.448/5

974) Cody Bolton PIT, RHP, 22.9 – Bolton is 6’3”, 185 pounds with a fastball that ticked up in 2019 to a high of 97 MPH to go along with a plus curve, average change and the ability to throw strikes. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 8/4.13/1.31/145 in 155 IP

975) Austin Cox KC, LHP, 24.0 – 6’4”, 185 pound lefty whose stock took a big jump in 2019 with a pitching line of 2.76/1.15/129/38 in 130.2 IP split between Full-A and High-A. Plus control and plus curve are his best assets. 2021 Projection: 1/4.51/1.36/23 in 25 IP Prime Projection: 7/4.19/1.31/135 in 144 IP

976) Sammy Siani PIT, OF, 20.4 – Siani has plus speed with a good feel to hit and an uppercut swing that portends more power coming in the future. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/14/62/.265/.329/.406/15

977) Zach McKinstry LAD, 2B/SS, 25.11 – Super utility player who can play both infield and outfield. He has displayed a good feel to hit throughout his minor league career and his power started to blossom in 2019. 2021 Projection: 21/3/19/.248/.305/.389/1

978) Cole Hamels FA, LHP, 37.3 – Triceps and shoulder injuries limited Hamels to just 1 start but he intends to give it another go in 2021. 2021 Projection: 6/4.41/1.35/114 in 120 IP

979) Jeff Criswell OAK, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 58th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Criswell throws a mid 90’s fastball with two quality secondaries (slider, change), but needs to improve his control and consistency. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 5/4.26/1.37/98 in 110 IP

980) Kendall Williams LAD, RHP, 20.7 – Williams is a projectable 6’6”, 205 pounds with a low 90’s fastball and a plus changeup. Finding a consistent breaking ball and/or adding a few MPH to the fastball is the key to unlocking is upside ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 6/4.23/1.32/111 in 115 IP

981) Nick Garcia PIT, RHP, 21.11 – Selected 79th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the 6’4”, 215 pound Garcia became a full time starter for the first time in 2020 and impressed with a potentially above average 3 pitch mix. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 4/4.31/1.36/93 in 98 IP

982) Simon Muzziotti PHI, OF, 22.3 – Displayed plus contact rates (12.9% K%) and plus speed (21 steals) at High-A in 2019, but showed very little power (3 homers in 110 games). Plus defense will help him secure playing time. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 66/8/52/.264/.313/.372/13

983) Jason Castro HOU, C, 33.9 – In a timeshare with Martin Maldonado. He hits for power and has high walk rates. 2021 Projection: 42/11/40/.205/.301/.379/1

984) Chase Anderson PHI, RHP, 33.4 – Will compete for a rotation spot in Spring. Got demolished in 2020 with a 7.22 ERA. The only silver lining was a career best 24.7% K%. 2021 Projection: 5/4.78/1.38/92 in 105 IP

985) Nick Schnell TB, OF, 21.0 – Hit tool concerns are now magnified with a 36% K% in rookie ball and 40% K% at High-A in 2019, but the power/speed combo shined through with 5 homers and 5 steals in 55 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 51/16/54/.244/.312/.443/11

986) Joshua Mears SD, OF, 20.1 – Broken hamate bone limited his availability in 2020. Mears is 6’3”, 230 pounds with plus power and plus bat speed, but hit tool is raw. Smacked 7 homers with a 30.3% K% in 43 game pro debut in 2019. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 57/19/65/.235/.312/.452/4

987) Davis Wendzel TEX, 3B, 23.10 – Wendzel doesn’t have huge power or speed, but he’s a solid overall hitter whose plus defense could get him everyday at-bats. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 63/18/66/.265/.325/.428/5

988) Jhonkensy Noel CLE, 1B/3B, 19.9 – Power hitting beast who has been one of the youngest players in his league from 2018-2019. Cranked 10 homers in 64 games in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 and then hit 6 homers with a 18.7% K% in 47 games in stateside rookie ball in 2019. Limited defensive value puts major pressure on the bat. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 41/15/49/.248/.321/.469/2

989) Ryan Braun FA, OF, 37.5 – Sprint speed dropped to a career low 26 ft/sec and stole a single base in 39 games. Considering his age, it seems safe to say he is in the next stage of his decline. 2021 Projection: 45/16/51/.255/.316/.471/5

990) Brett Gardner FA, OF, 37.6 – Career low 28.2 ft/sec sprint speed and was 3 for 6 on steal attempts. 2021 Projection: 52/13/44/.242/.328/.410/8

991) Shin-Soo Choo FA, OF, 38.9 – Still hitting the ball hard with a 90 MPH exit velocity and while sprint speed is well below average, he still nabbed 6 bags in 33 games. 2021 Projection: 53/14/49/.248/.339/.415/7

992) Asdrubal Cabrera FA, 1B/3B, 35.5 – Playing time is not guaranteed, but he makes good contact (18.8% K%), hits the ball hard (89.4 MPH) and hits it in the air (37.9% FB%). 2021 Projection: 45/13/49/.255/.320/.431/2

993) Matt Beaty LAD, 1B/OF, 27.11 – Could not build on his strong MLB debut in 2019 with a 25.9% K% and .638 OPS in 2020. He still hit the ball hard with a 90 MPH exit velocity and his strikeout rate should bounce back, but playing time is the biggest issue. 2021 Projection: 21/5/24/.262/.320/.413/2

994) Mike Fiers FA, RHP, 35.10 – K/9 hit a career low 5.64 and 4 seamer velocity dropped 2.4 MPH to 88 MPH. 2021 Projection: 9/4.61/1.35/110 in 160 IP

995) Daniel Ponce de Leon STL, RHP, 29.2 – He could be the next man up in St. Louis’ rotation. Ponce relies heavily on his 93.1 MPH 4-seam fastball that he threw 61.1% of the time and notched a 34.4% whiff% on the pitch. 2021 Projection: 6/4.51/1.35/115 in 110 IP

996) Jake Arrieta FA, RHP, 35.1 – The decline continuee with his ERA rising for the 5th year in a row to 5.08 and his K% declining for the 6th year in a row to 16.8%. 2021 Projection: 7/4.68/1.44/110 in 140 IP

997) Ronny Polanco ARI, SS, 17.7 – Signed for $600,00 in 2019, Polanco has a quick bat with plus power, average speed and a history of performing well in international tournaments. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/21/76/.267/.332/.453/8

998) Kevin Made CHC, SS, 18.7 – Signed for $1.5 million in 2019, Made has plus bat speed with high contact rates and the potential for plus power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/20/78/.278/.342/.450/8

999) Allan Cerda CIN, OF, 21.4 – Cerda is an athletic and projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds. He’s hit for power with high flyball rates in the Dominican League in 2018 and stateside rookie ball in 2019, but the strikeout rates are high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 61/19/66/.243/.334/.456/7

1000) Victor Victor Mesa MIA, OF, 24.8 – Strong contact rates and speed translated to stateside ball at High-A and Double-A, but it came with a very low walk rate and absolutely zero power. Some of the lackluster numbers can be attributed to shaking the rust off after a long hiatus, but Mesa was clearly over-hyped. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 43/5/39/.254/.306/.374/14

1001) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 18.7 – Selected 50th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Carter is a projectable 6’4”, 190 pounds with a potentially plus power/speed combo. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/18/74/.257/.318/.426/12

1002) Jay Bruce FA, OF, 34.0 – Power bench bat. 2020 Projection: 42/16/49/.227/.289/.458/1

1003) Anibal Sanchez FA, RHP, 37.1 – Velocity was down 1 MPH to 89.2 MPH and got absolutely destroyed with a 6.62 ERA in 53 IP. 2021 Projection: 8/4.81/1.42/130 in 155 IP

1004) Julio Teheran FA, RHP, 30.2 – Put up a major dud in 2020 with a 10.05 ERA in 31.1 IP. His sinker dropped to a career low 88.7 MPH 2021 Projection: 6/4.93/1.43/111 in 130 IP

1005) Jeff Samardzija FA, RHP, 36.2 – 9.72 ERA in 16.2 IP in 2020. Velocity dropped to a career low 90.3 MPH on his 4-seamer. 2021 Projection: 8/4.98/1.39/121 in 145 IP

1006) Bryant Packard DET, OF, 23.6 – Packard’s power took a step back in 2019, but displayed a good feel to hit and advanced plate approach in both college and full season pro ball. He has no defensive value, so playing time will be another hurdle. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 53/16/58/.257/.335/.441/3

1007) Nasim Nunez MIA, SS, 20.7 – Nunez has plus speed with a good feel to hit, but has a very low 84 MPH average exit velocity. Plus glove and stole 28 bases in 51 games in his pro debut, so he may end up as a steals only guy. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/7/51/.262/.323/.385/19

1008) Jimmy Lewis LAD, RHP, 20.5 – Lewis is projectable 6’6”, 200 pounds with a low 90’s fastball that should tick up, a potentially plus curve and above average change. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.32/140 in 151 IP

1009) Rodolfo Castro PIT, SS/2B, 21.10 – Plus athlete who rocked 19 homers in 118 games split between Full-A and High-A in 2019, but is still raw with a 122/31 K/BB. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 59/16/64/.237/.311/.433/5

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 16, 2020November 17, 2020 by Michael Halpern

A Top 50 Sneak Peek of the 2021 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Welcome to the 3rd Annual Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings. We start today with the first of three posts in the Sneak Peek series, which will lead up to the full release of the Top 1,000 in late January/early February. 16-team, deep roster, 5×5 category league is what I had in my mind during the process. Here is A Top 50 Sneak Peek of the 2021 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings:

Click here for the 2020 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings
Click here for the 2019 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves

5) Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 25.9 – Down-ish year mostly due to a .245 BABIP, but exit velocity did drop 1.8 MPH to 89.3 so it wasn’t purely due to bad luck. More importantly, he maintained the major Whiff% gains he made in 2019 with a 23.3% mark. Considering the shortened season and the fact his underlying numbers were more or less in line with career norms, it would be silly to sell low on Bellinger. 2021 Projection: 105/41/105/.275/.371/.575/14

6) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 28.6 – Jumped on the first pitch 24% of the time in 2020, up from 16.4% in 2019. It just goes to show that even for the elite, you can never stop making adjustments. “If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” 2021 Projection: 121/33/100/.294/.367/.536/22

7) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 27.9 – Maintained 2019’s exit velocity gains, except this year it showed up in his home run total with 12 dingers in 59 games. The added power hasn’t impacted his speed at all with the 5th fastest sprint speed in the game. On top of all that, he notched a career best 13.9% K%. He’s peaking all over our faces. 2021 Projection: 105/26/88/.297/.362/.506/34

12) Francisco Lindor CLE, SS, 27.4 – Underwhelming season, and while there is nothing really setting off alarm bells in the underlying numbers, he did notch a career worst 20.4% whiff% along with a career worst 4.42 runtime to 1st. Don’t go panic selling, but it might be enough to knock Lindor out of that very elite tier. 2021 Projection: 98/30/88/.272/.341/.497/17

35) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 30.0 – Season was tanked by a shoulder injury that he suffered on July 29th. Was shut down in September when an MRI revealed inflammation in the AC joint and a bone bruise. Arenado battled a shoulder injury in 2018 as well, so this seems to be a recurring issue. 2021 Projection: 93/35/106/.288/.363/.552/2

36) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 30.10 – Played through a left wrist injury, and while he couldn’t match his elite 2019 career year, he got back to doing Yeoman’s work with a .286/.418/.497 triple-slash, 9 homers, and a 31/38 K/BB in 52 games. 2021 Projection: 91/30/102/.290/.388/.533/3

37) Trevor Bauer FA, RHP, 30.2 – Drastically increased the spin rate on every one of his pitches (other than his changeup which he basically ditched) which resulted in a career high 36% K% and career low 6.1% BB%. 2021 Projection: 14/3.40/1.17/239 in 191 IP

38) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 26.9 – Backed up 2019 breakout with an equally impressive 2020, relying mostly on his dominant fastball/changeup combo. 2021 Projection: 13/3.54/1.18/227 in 180 IP

39) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 25.10 – Never fully recovered from Covid and was dealing with a lack of energy and strength all season. I’m no virologist, so I have no idea what the chances are these issues will last until 2021, but I’m going to assume a return to full health. 2021 Projection: 89/26/85/.263/.344/.475/10

40) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 25.6 – The Cardinals Covid outbreak made an already tough season even tougher for Cardinals players, and Flaherty was never really able to get on track with a 4.91 ERA in 40.1 IP. One thing to keep an eye on is that Flaherty’s BABIP normalized this season (.281) after sitting abnormally low the past 2 seasons. 2021 Projection: 12/3.62/1.20/214 in 184 IP

41) George Springer FA, OF, 31.6 – Put up a career best 35.9% GB% (44.6% in 2019) while also improving his K% to a career best 17.1%. It led to 14 homers in 51 games (plus 4 homers in 13 playoff games). Combined with a career year in 2019, Springer is establishing himself as a near elite hitter. 2021 Projection: 99/34/91/.272/.363/.530/6

42) Gleyber Torres NYY, SS, 24.4 – Mediocre numbers on the season (.724 OPS), but this is a pretty clear case of one extended slump tanking your numbers due to the shortened season. If there was any question, he put up a 246 wRC+ in 30 postseason at-bats. 2021 Projection: 92/30/92/.275/.357/.504/4

43) Yu Darvish CHC, RHP, 34.7 – Improved control from the 2nd half of 2019 carried over to 2020 with a career best 4.7% BB%. Also notched a career high 96.2 MPH four seamer velocity. It all resulted in Darvish moving into the very elite tier of pitchers. 2021 Projection: 15/3.27/1.09/223 in 175 IP

44) Luis Castillo CIN, RHP, 28.4 – Made incremental improvements in K% (30.5%), BB% (8.2%), exit velocity against (86 MPH), and launch angle against (2.2 degrees). 2021 Projection: 13/3.56/1.21/222 in 185 IP

45) Blake Snell TB, LHP, 28.4 – Didn’t pitch more than 5.2 innings in any of his 17 starts, culminating in the now infamous decision to pull him after a dominant 5.1 innings in Game 6 of the World Series. Biggest concern is his elbow, which required arthroscopic surgery in 2019 and a cortisone shot in Feb 2020. 2021 Projection: 12/3.48/1.24/221 in 170 IP

46) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 28.11 – Battled through a stress fracture in his right rib, a right shoulder injury and a right calf strain which limited him to 28 games. The injuries resulted in a 3.8 MPH drop in exit velocity. He has power to spare, but he has to be on the field to take advantage of it. 2021 Projection: 89/34/86/.263/.361/.541/4

47) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 26.4 – Ripped 10 dingers in September to close out the season after underwhelming in the first half. Alonso is your classic low average slugger. 2021 Projection: 88/40/103/.249/.342/.531/1

48) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 28.2 – Fastball was just as dominant in 2020 as it was in 2019, ranking 2nd in baseball behind only Marco Gonzalez. Changeup, curve, and slider all took a step forward as well. 2021 Projection: 13/3.51/1.15/205 in 170 IP

49) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 25.8 – Built on his 2019 breakout in 2020. BB% dropped down to 8.6%, which is nice to see after the 10.8% mark he put up in 2019 was the biggest cause for concern coming into the year. 2021 Projection: 12/3.61/1.25/202 in 170 IP

50) Tyler Glasnow TB, RHP, 27.7 – K% exploded to 38.2%. Gave back some of the gains he made in BB% in 2019 (up 3.1% to 9.2%) and got hit up for a career worst 90.4 MPH exit velocity, but most of the underlying stats show the 4.08 ERA was unlucky (3.11 xERA and 2.75 xFIP). 2021 Projection: 11/3.48/1.20/205 in 159 IP

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)