Yu-Cheng Chang, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Sleeper/Breakout

Yu-Cheng Chang did not crack my Top 100 Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings and I haven’t mentioned him in any of my Weekly Prospect Rundowns. That is how much of a sleeper he is. Even the guy writing this sleeper article (me) is sleeping on him. But 20-year-old shortstops with a .267/.336/.488 triple-slash, to go along with 10 homers and 9 steals in High-A, do not get slept on for long. So it’s time to dig deeper and see what Chang is all about.

Chang was one of the top Asian amateur free agents in 2013, signing with the Cleveland Indians for $500,000. He immediately proceeded to rip up Rookie-Ball in his professional debut in 2014, slashing .346/.420/.566 with 6 homers and 6 steals in 42 games. Last season was a different story, though, and it completely halted any and all hype that he built up from the year before. Chang slashed .232/.293/.361, with 9 homers, 5 steals, and a 103/27 K/BB in 105 games at Single-A. Combine the poor numbers with the fact that he didn’t really have a standout tool, and everyone was rightfully down on him coming into this season. But as you know from my opener, he has turned things around this year, and we are starting to see the player he is going to become.

Chang has quick bat speed and a level swing that allows him to hit the ball with authority to all fields.  He will never be a true power hitter, but I can see him perennially hitting in the mid-teens. Along with his power, he has improved his K rate by 2.3% (21% on the season) and his BB rate by 3.4% (9.5%). His speed grades out as above average, so he should steal his fair share of bases, as well. The biggest downside is that he is likely to be moved off SS, especially if he stays with Cleveland (hello, Francisco Lindor), with 2B, 3B, and CF all possibilities down the line.

I don’t think Chang will ever become a star, but he can end up being a very solid 5-category producer at a valuable position. I will give him a prime projection of 84/16/78/.271/12. You can likely pick him up now for nothing, even in deep leagues, but once he reaches Double-A and continues to hit well, it might not be that easy.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

2016 Mid-Season Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakouts (not on my off-season top 100 rankings)

This list would have been a lot easier if I could have just included Derek Fisher, Josh Hader, Willie Calhoun, Harrison Bader, and Tyler O’Neill. Unfortunately, I already had all of them ranked on my off-season Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings (#20, #21, #43, #51, and #78, respectively), and also in my pre-season Top 12 Dynasty League Prospect Sleepers post. Plus, all of these guys are starting to get their fair share of hype, so it is time to dig deeper and focus on the next group of up and comers. Here are the 2016 Mid-Season Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakouts:

1) Chase Vallot KC, C – I might have jinxed Vallot, because since I wrote a Chase Vallot, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout post earlier this month, he has had one freak injury after another. Here is the Cirque du Soliel, acrobatic collision at home plate that he had the same night I wrote the breakout post, which resulted in a two week back injury. And here are the nasty results of taking a 93 MPH fastball right to the mouth on the very first day he returned from the back injury this week. Selfishly, these injuries might actually help fantasy owners who have off-season prospect drafts, because it will keep his overall numbers down.

2) Christin Stewart DET, OF – I’ve been kicking myself for not being higher on Stewart in the off-season, as he was literally right in my favorite prospect sleeper wheelhouse. He triple-slashed .311/.443/.633 with 15 bombs his junior year of college before being drafted 34th overall by Detroit in last year’s draft, and then he crushed 10 dingers directly upon reaching pro ball. It’s been more of the same this year, as he is slashing .239/.389/.509, with 16 homers, and a 69/48 K/BB in 65 games at High-A. He will likely never hit for a high average, but 20+ homers with a good OBP is a fair expectation once he reaches the majors.

3) Travis Demeritte TEX, 2B – I wrote a Travis Demeritte, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout post way back in the first week of the season, and he has continued his assault on High-A pitching since then. He is slashing .253/.342/.549, with 16 homers, and 10 steals in 64 games. His 90/33 K/BB is a bit concerning, and he will definitely need to cut down on his K’s some, but Demeritte is like the 2B version of Trevor Story.

4) Dylan Cozens PHI, OF – As I’ve mentioned a few times in my Weekly Prospect Rundowns, Cozens does not possess that super quick, direct path to the ball swing that I love. There probably isn’t much he can do about that, seeing as he is 6’6’’, 235 pounds, and oftentimes tall guys inevitably have long swings. He also plays in a hitter’s park, his K numbers have ballooned this year, and he might ultimately end up at 1B. Having said that, the numbers he is putting up right now are undeniable, slashing .294/.371/.595, with 19 homers, and 13 steals in 65 games at Double-A. He deserves a high spot on this list.

5) Josh Ockimey BOS, 1B – Ockimey is like the Babe Ruth of Twitter, constantly calling his shot. On February 4th he tweeted, “This is the year,” and then just a few weeks ago he tweeted, “Underrated temporarily for the moment.” Maybe it is more of a self-fulfilling prophecy sort of thing, because the 20-year-old Ockimey’s breakout is very real. He is slashing .285/.424/.500, with 9 homers, and a 59/49 K/BB in 58 games at Single-A. Barring a trade, he has the inside track to be Boston’s 1B of the future.

6) Ronald Guzman TEX, 1B – Here is what I wrote about Guzman in my Week 6 Fantasy Prospect Rundown, “The Rangers paid the 6’5’’, 205 pound Guzman $3.5 million back in 2011, and it is just now starting to pay off in a big way. Guzman is slashing .319/.382/.529, with 5 homers, and a 29/10 K/BB in 32 games at Double-A this season. He has a sweet lefty swing and has always had a reputation for being a pure hitter. He doesn’t have huge power right now, but I don’t think it is a stretch to assume it will come as he continues to age and get stronger. You don’t have to squint all that hard to see Nomar Mazara-lite here, and Guzman is another excellent deep league sleeper.” He has continued his strong season since then, and is now slashing .287/.355/.498 with 9 homers in 62 games. Considering his $3.5 million price tag, I assume the Rangers are definitely going to want to give him a real shot.

7) Eloy Jimenez CHC, OF – Jimenez was another highly touted International free agent, signing for $2.8 million with the Cubs in 2013. He always had super quick bat speed and prodigious raw power, and it is starting to really show up in his numbers this year, slashing .332/.370/.526, with 8 homers, and 4 steals in 62 games at Single-A. His 62/15 K/BB is pretty weak, so I doubt he keeps up the high average, but this is just the beginning for the 19-year-old Jimenez. He might end up ranking higher than a few of the guys ranked above him on this list in my mid-season top 100.

8) Mitch Keller PIT, RHP – Keller was the 64th overall pick of the 2014 draft, and after showing promise in his first year of pro ball, he struggled with a forearm injury last season. This season has been an entirely different story, as Keller has displayed insane command with a minuscule 0.9 BB/9, to go along with a pitching line of 2.42/0.81/76 in 67 IP at Single-A. He only throws in the low 90’s, but he does so with an extremely easy and repeatable delivery. He also gets a bump for being in a great situation for pitchers in Pittsburgh.

9) Chris Shaw SFG, 1B – Shaw has cooled down a bit since his smoking hot start, but the overall numbers still look good, slashing .273/.340/.517 with 13 homers in 62 games at High-A. Full credit goes to “The Baltimoron” for scoping him out in the comments section of my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article. I would still be a little cautious, though, because San Francisco has one of the top pitcher’s parks in the majors.

10) Phil Bickford SFG, RHP – Bickford is an absolute strikeout machine. He struck out 166 batters in 86.2 IP in JuCo last season, and he carried that success over to pro ball, putting up a line of 2.70/1.07/69 in 60 IP at Single-A this year. He also has solid control (2.2 BB/9). He does have a high effort delivery that creates some bullpen risk, but in fantasy baseball, I don’t really care about a pitcher having a safe (low K) floor. I’ll take the high K’s and bullpen risk.

*) My 1-year-old Nephew – I just got him to start throwing food with his left hand. Is it probably a little too early to call him a 2016 fantasy baseball prospect breakout? … No, the kid is already making adjustments at 13 months old!

Honorable Mentions: Dan Vogelbach, Drew Ward, Ronald Acuna, Rhys Hoskins, Chris Paddack, Anthony Banda, Mike Soroka, Ryan O’Hearn

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Willie Calhoun, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout

Last January, I set out into the backwoods of the internet on a mission to find the next A.J. Reed, like random guys on the History Channel go into the real woods searching for Big Foot. Only difference is, I found him (actually, I found two of them). Harrison Bader, St. Louis Cardinals, was the first to reveal himself to the world, dominating Double-A from the word go. He is currently triple-slashing .312/.363/.549, with 13 homers, and 7 steals in 54 games. And now, Willie Calhoun, Los Angeles Dodgers, is having a coming out party of his own, smashing two more homers last night, bringing his triple-slash up to .271/.338/.493, with 10 homers, and a 29/19 K/BB in 55 games at Double-A. It turns out that finding underrated prospects might be easier than finding a mythical beast. Nonetheless, Calhoun has been on fire of late, and he has officially graduated from a sleeper, to a breakout.

Willie got off to a slow start this season, hitting bottom in mid-May, which prompted me to label him a 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospect Faller (he “fell” to top 60-ish overall, which was still much higher than where anyone else had him). He must have taken that criticism to heart, because he has hit like a man possessed since then, slashing .329/.400/.696, with 8 homers, and a 12/10 K/BB in 22 games. Those numbers are exactly in line with what he did last year in the lower levels of the minors, and his combination of power and contact skills can rival any prospect right now. Check out this homer he hit earlier this year in late April. He was off balance and didn’t even get all of it, yet he still smoked a line drive which left the park. That is the perfect example of his bat to ball skills and easy power.

The biggest issue with Calhoun is his defense. Los Angeles is attempting to turn him into a second baseman, but the reports have been less than glowing so far. That isn’t exactly unexpected, though, as I assumed he was going to end up in the outfield when I ranked him #43 overall in my pre-season top 100. Scouts have also dinged him for what they like to call a lack of “physicality,” which is the politically correct way of saying they think the 5’8’’, 187-pound Calhoun is too small. I’ve ignored that criticism from the beginning, as bat speed is much more important in generating power than size, and Calhoun has top end bat speed.

With Calhoun and Bader both currently destroying Double-A, I can officially call my off-season hunting expedition a rousing success. I recently cashed in Bader as part of a deal for 4 cheap years of Yu Darvish, as hard as it was to part with him. Unfortunately for me, finding Big Foot would have come with a reward for up to $10 million, which after doing a few quick calculations, turns out to be slightly more valuable than owning Darvish in fantasy. Maybe I should strap on the real hiking boots next off-season.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Chase Vallot, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout

When your girlfriend’s Twitter handle is @craycray_tayy, it is no wonder that Single-A pitching has been no problem for Chase Vallot to handle this season 😉 The 19-year-old Vallot, Kansas City Royals, is triple-slashing .291/.394/.539, with 8 homers, and a 60/20 K/BB in 41 games, and he is quickly becoming one of my favorite fantasy baseball prospect sleepers. Here is what I wrote about Vallot a few weeks ago in my Week 6 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rundown:

Bat speed, power, and strikeouts make for some of my favorite prospect sleepers (remember my 30th ranked prospect Trevor Story?), and the 19-year-old Vallot checks all of those boxes. The 40th overall pick of the 2014 draft, Vallot crushed 13 homers in 80 games at Single-A last season, and he is off to a strong start this season, slashing .279/.391/.529, with 6 homers, and a 43/16 K/BB in 31 games. Here is a scouting video of him in high school displaying that super quick bat speed, and here is a video of him absolutely crushing a homer earlier this year. He is built like a brick shit house, and even if he doesn’t stick at catcher, I feel pretty confident in saying Vallot is going to continue to hit the ball very hard when he isn’t striking out. He is a great deep league sleeper.

Power has always been Vallot’s calling card. He won the home run derby in the Perfect Game National while in high school, and hit 13 homers in 99 at-bats his senior year as the second youngest player in his draft class. The Royals fell in love with him after he crushed the longest home run of all the players they worked out for the draft, and judging by that above linked “Chase Vallot KILLS this baseball” Youtube video, he is still impressing with his insane power. He is still raw defensively behind the plate, but the fact that this kind of power bat even has a chance of sticking at catcher is only a positive. He will be an impact fantasy hitter regardless of position.

Vallot will definitely move into my mid-season top 100 fantasy prospects update, and he should be on the radar of fantasy owners in Dynasty Leagues of all formats and sizes. You can follow him on Twitter @Chase_Vallot, and I wish him and his girlfriend all the best 🙂

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Harrison Bader, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout

Harrison Bader first caught my eye when I went searching for the next A.J. Reed way back in January. Then, I ranked him 51st overall in my Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects post in February. Finally, I smacked the “sleeper” label on him, ranking him 7th in my Dynasty League Prospect Sleepers article in early April. But now, he has graduated to an entirely new level. He is officially being promoted to a full blown breakout. And with that, comes even more hype.

The St. Louis Cardinals pushed the 21-year-old Bader, OF, all the way to Double-A to start the 2016 season. They likely saw what I saw, that Bader can flat out hit. He raked at the University of Florida last year, slashing .297/.393/.566, with 17 homers, and 8 steals in 67 games, and then raked immediately upon reaching pro ball, slashing .311/.368/.523, with 11 homers, and 17 steals in 61 games splitting time between Low-A and Single-A. Even with those eye popping numbers, it would have been reasonable to think he would struggle a bit in his first taste of Double-A. He hasn’t. After blasting homers in back-to-back games, Bader’s season line stands at .342/.398/.539, with 4 homers, and 2 steals in 19 games. While his highly drafted contemporaries from the 2015 draft, Andrew Benintendi (7th overall) and Ian Happ (9th overall), have been putting up cute numbers in High-A, Bader (100th overall) is doing the same thing in a grown man’s league.

Bader’s excellent start is not without a red flag or two. He has struck out 22 times and walked only 4 times. While he has hit 4 homers, he has only 3 other extra base hits. His BABIP sits at .440.  In other words, his batting average is due to drop precipitously. He has also been caught stealing 5 times. For a guy who is not known as a burner, and more of an opportunistic base stealer, his poor stolen base percentage exposes his lack of true stolen base upside once he reaches the majors.

The positives still far outweigh the negatives. Leave it to St. Louis to unearth another underrated gem. It is obvious they value bat speed and exit velocity to the utmost degree, and Bader possesses both in spades. Maybe the rest of the league will catch up one day. If you were waiting to see more from Bader before picking him up, consider his dominance at Double-A your more. He is a future 5-category producer with more power than speed, and should break into the majors sometime in 2017.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Travis Demeritte, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout

Travis Demeritte is the Minor League version of Trevor Story. Like Story, he has been red hot to start the season, triple-slashing .435/.481/1.304, with 5 homers, and 2 steals in his first 6 games at High-A. Like Story, he absolutely crushes the ball when he makes contact, but has a history of struggling to make contact in the first place. And most importantly, like Story, he has a last name that is low hanging fruit for people that like to make corny puns. Don’t worry, I’ll spare you … this time. So why isn’t everyone hyping Demeritte to death like they are Story? Well, probably because nobody plays in a MiLB Fantasy League. But we do play in Dynasty Leagues, and now is the time to jump on the Demeritte bandwagon.

The Texas Rangers selected Demeritte, 2B, out of high school with the 30th overall pick in the 2013 draft. He showed his considerable talent right off the bat, putting up an .856 OPS, with 4 homers, and 5 steals in 39 Rookie ball games. It also came with a 28% K%. He then cranked up the power and strikeouts even more in 2014 at Single-A, jacking 25 homers with a 36.7% K%. Even with his considerable strikeout issues, the power surge made Demeritte an interesting sleeper candidate going into 2015. It turned out he would have bigger problems than strikeouts to deal with.

After displaying that same power/strikeout profile in the first 48 games of 2015, Demeritte got popped for taking the banned substance furosemide, a known masking agent for other drugs, and was suspended for 80 games. Coming into 2016, it was fair to wonder how much of that power was natural, and how much was drug induced. But as you know from my opener, we don’t have to wonder anymore, as the power is very real (or he found a better masking agent). He is still striking out 29.6% of the time, but if Story has taught us anything, it is that players with strikeout issues can succeed if they smack the crap outta the ball when they do make contact, and Demeritte does just that.

I give myself 3 demerits for not being higher on Demeritte this preseason (sorry, I couldn’t resist!), but any questions I had coming into this year have been answered. He is a boom or bust power hitting middle infielder with opportunistic speed. If you don’t mind some strikeout risk with your prospects, Demeritte is certainly one to jump on before word of his scorching start gets out.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

2016 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty League Prospect Sleepers

Opening Day is here! No, MLB is not having another Opening Day (they’ve already had two). Today is the kick off to the 2016 MiLB season, and for Dynasty league owners, it can be just as exciting as MLB Opening Day(s). So please take a minute to stop rosterbating over your brilliant Trevor Story pick up – who I touted way back in February as a top 30 prospect (you’re welcome), but also told you to not get too excited for this year (oops … although my concerns still stand, clearly it is ok to be excited) –  and start getting ready to find the next under hyped, underrated stud. Here are the 2016 fantasy baseball dynasty league prospect sleepers that you should keep your eye on, if you haven’t scooped them already:

1) Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B – Bradley fell to the 3rd round of the 2014 draft, but that was solely due to his big signing bonus demands, and not his talent level. All he has done is rake once reaching pro ball, jacking 8 homers in 39 rookie ball games in 2014, and 27 homers in Single-A last season. The 19-year-old Bradley will start this season with the High-A Lynchburg Hillcats, and it won’t take long before the hype starts to catch up with the talent. I ranked Bradley 18th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

2) Derek Fisher HOU, OF – Wrote a Derek Fisher, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 20th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

3) Josh Hader MIL, LHP – A funky delivery and bullpen concerns have kept the hype for Hader in check, but considering the position the Brewers are in right now, they have every incentive to continue to develop him as a starter. The lanky 6’3’’ Hader is a strikeout machine (10.3 K/9 in Double-A last season), who relies heavily on his big fastball. If he can show improvement with his slider and/or changeup this year, more people will turn into believers. I ranked Hader 21st in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

4) Tom Murphy COL, C – Murphy hit 20 homers in 105 games last season splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, and then he hit 3 dingers in just 39 MLB PA. His defense has also improved to the point that nobody doubts he can stick at catcher. Nick Hundley’s contract runs out after this season, so the door is wide open for Murphy to win the starting job next year. His high strikeout numbers are the reason he is not more highly touted, but a poor average in not a killer at the catcher position, especially with the power he should provide at Coors. I ranked Murphy 32nd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

5) Alen Hanson PIT, 2B – Wrote an Alen Hanson, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 33rd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

6) Willie Calhoun LAD, 2B/OF – Covered Calhoun in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 43rd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

7) Harrison Bader STL, OF – Covered Bader in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 51st in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

8) Jacob Faria TB, RHP – Put up a pitching line of 2.51/1.09/96 in 75.1 IP in Double-A last season. Doesn’t have the big fastball, but his delivery creates a lot of deception. Also gets a bump due to Tampa Bay’s success with developing pitchers like him. If he can keep up those strikeout numbers this season, people won’t be sleeping on him anymore. I ranked Faria 68th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

9) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP – We can “own” prospects in fantasy, but we still need to rely on actual baseball teams to develop them, and there isn’t a better team at player development than the St. Louis Cardinals. Flaherty struck out 97 batters in 95 IP in his first full season of pro ball at Single-A. His fastball sat in the low 90’s last year, but if it ticks up a bit after adding strength this offseason, he could rocket up prospect lists. I ranked Flaherty 69th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

10) Justus Sheffield CLE, LHP – Cleveland has been on fire of late developing starting pitchers. Time to jump on the bandwagon. Sheffield struck out 138 batters in 127.2 IP in Single-A last season, and actually got better as the season went along, dominating in August and September. He is undersized for a starter at 5’10’’, which is probably why he has flown under the radar, but if he keeps putting up big strikeout numbers, he will force people to take notice. I ranked Sheffield 70th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

11) Tyler O’Neill SEA, OF – Wrote a Tyler O’Neill, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 78th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

12) Austin Byler ARI, 1B – Covered Byler in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 99th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post. (He is suspended for the first 50 games after testing positive for an amphetamine stimulant.)

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Tyler O’Neill, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Sleeper

First, the bad news. Tyler O’Neill, OF, is a Seattle Mariners power hitting prospect. The prospect corpses of Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Mike Zunino, and Jesus Montero still hover over this franchise. The 2014 6th overall pick, Alex Jackson, has actually regressed since joining Seattle. Their history isn’t pretty, and Mariner fans deserve our pity … and Seattle is a rainy city (ok, I think that will begin and end my foray into the poetry game). The bad news does not end there. O’Neill strikes out a ton (30.5% K%) and doesn’t walk much (6.5% BB%), either. So why would I like this guy at all? Because when O’Neill does make contact, he absolutely scorches the ball, and he is still only 20 years old, so there is plenty of time for improvement.

O’Neill triple-slashed, .260/.316/.558, with 32 homers, and 16 steals in 106 games played in the High-A California League last season, a hitter’s paradise. He made legitimate improvements during the season, doing his best work after returning from the 2015 Pan-Am games on July 23rd. From that point forward, he slashed, .280/.381/.702, with 16 homers in only 41 games. O’Neill credited his improvement to a new batting stance that allowed him to cover more of the plate, unlocking his power to all fields. He then put up .733 slugging percentage in the Arizona Fall League, jacking 3 homers in 31 PA. And about those Pan-Am games I mentioned earlier, he only won a gold medal with Team Canada, hitting 3 homers, one of which was a 3-run bomb to give Canada a 3-1 win over Cuba.

O’Neill’s best underlying skills are his plus bat speed and exit velocity, which have become the sexy stats du jour in the baseball community, especially with strikeouts sky rocketing around MLB. No longer is striking out the kiss of death, but when you do make contact, you better make it count. O’Neill also has a reputation for being an extremely hard worker. He wanted to improve his speed last off-season, and he did just that, stealing a career high 16 bases in 2015.

The risks are very real, but in fantasy baseball it is all about upside, and Tyler O’Neill is pure upside right now. In his prime, I will give him the projection of 73/25/88/.249/9, with room for much more if he can cut down on his strikeouts. His ETA is 2017-18.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Jung-ho Kang, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

Consider the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Jung-ho Kang’s knee injury a blessing in disguise, as it creates the last opportunity fantasy owners will have to draft Kang at anything that can be considered a value. Kang tore his left MCL and fractured his left tibia in a game last September, after being taken out at 2nd base by Chris Coghlan during a double play. His exact return date for next season is still uncertain, but he is expected to miss only a few weeks. Just enough time to scare off some of your opponents from drafting him, but not enough time to seriously hurt his overall 2016 fantasy value. And for Dynasty leagues, the missed time should not even make you blink an eye.

Kang is getting some love in the fantasy community, but not nearly enough. He can flat out hit. In only 54 post all-star break games last season, he triple-slashed, .310/.364/.548, and hit 11 homers. That was good for a .913 OPS. In 2014, he hit 40 homers in Korea. I would not be surprised if he ended up with the highest OPS of any SS eligible player this season. Not that I would bet on it, but I think it is a very realistic scenario. People are talking about Kang like he is a solid hitter that should provide decent value, but the numbers dictate he can be much more than that. Solid hitter is his floor.

Kang comes with 3B eligibility, as well. While his true value lies at SS, you never know when positional flexibility will come in handy. The knee injury will most likely limit his stolen base totals for next season, but he was not known as a burner anyway, so it shouldn’t affect his value too much.

Pittsburgh absolutely stole Kang right out from under the league’s nose last off-season, signing him to a 4-year deal, with only $11 million guaranteed. There is also a fifth year team option for $5.5 million. The knee injury gives fantasy owners the same opportunity for 2016. I will give Kang the projection of 70/20/70/.284/4 in 130 games played. In Dynasty leagues, Kang should be your number one target after all of the flashy names are off the board.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

John Lamb Out Until Mid-April After Off-Season Back Surgery

I was literally in the middle of writing a “John Lamb, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper” post, when news broke that LHP John Lamb, Cincinnati Reds, will likely be out until mid-April after undergoing off-season back surgery last December. He was originally expected to be ready by Opening Day, but it was recently revealed he is behind schedule, and mid-to-late April is now the more likely return date.

This certainly puts a major damper on Lamb’s 2016 fantasy value. Cincinnati does not have a shortage of young starting pitcher options they can now turn to, and there is no guarantee Lamb’s rotation spot will be waiting for him when he returns. The door is open for Michael Lorenzen, Tony Cingrani, Brandon Finnegan, Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed, or Amir Garrett to grab hold of that final rotation spot before Lamb can even get healthy. Lamb might have to wait for an injury to regain his spot.

This also raises some doubts about his overall future fantasy value. Lamb has an ugly injury history to begin with. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2011, he didn’t fully recover until last season. In 2013, his once dominant fastball barely cracked the mid 80’s. In 2014, he built himself back up to the point where he was hitting the low 90’s, and then in 2015, he was hitting 95 MPH on occasion. He put up a pitching line of 2.67/1.17/117 in 111.1 IP at Triple-A last year. He struggled in his major league debut, especially with the long ball, but there were some positive signs. He struck out 58 batters in 49.2 IP, and his 4.16 FIP looked much better than his 5.80 ERA. He pitched a career high of 161 innings, and had seemingly put his injury problems behind him. Except, as we just found out, he didn’t.

Lamb still has a bright future, but this definitely is a cold reality check that we can’t ignore his serious injury red flags. For 2016, his value plummets, and looks more like a good waiver add. In Dynasty Leagues, his value doesn’t drastically change, but I would move him down a few slots.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com