Felix Hernandez for $46!?!?

I sit on the edge of my shitty wooden chair as the bidding for Felix Hernandez blows past all reasonable estimates. Said chair is at the head of a large, boardroom style table, overflowing with burgers, corned beef hash, cheese fries, beer, and 12 scheming, devious fantasy baseball fanatics who I call my friends. It is our annual dynasty league auction draft located in a private backroom at Smith & Wollensky’s Steakhouse in Manhattan, and you can cut the tension with a butter knife right now (because butter knives are all we have; if you thought $100/person would get you steak at a steakhouse, you thought wrong). The bidding for Felix is down to two people, me and Greg.

“I’ll go $41,” a stone faced Greg announces from the other end of the table.

“$42,” I quickly fire back. The time for games is over. Felix is the last available “ace” on the board. The only other aces who were free agents in this year’s auction, David Price and Zach Grienke, already sold for $45 and $44, respectively ($260 budget). I bowed out of the bidding on both of those guys once the price hit $40, thinking I might be able to get Felix at a slight discount. Hah!

A brief silence falls over the room. “$43,” Greg finally squeaks out, sounding pretty unsure of himself.

I know a bunch of teams have cap space this year, but this is getting out of control. Felix Hernandez had a down year last year! There are red flags! I’m supposed to get him at a discount, goddamnit! I bite down hard, and try to summon some throwaway wisdom to help me rationalize the reckless bid I am about to make. “Fortune favors the bold,” I meekly blurt out to the room. “$44.”

The silence stretches on for longer this time. Greg looks like he might be ready to call it quits. “Alright man, I think I’m going to …” he stops mid-sentence. “Actually, nevermind, I’m going $45.”

You have got to be kidding me! Just at this moment, our waiter rolls in a cart filled with the 12 tequila shots we ordered earlier. I am at my wit’s end. Throwaway wisdom is not going to do it anymore. I need liquid courage! I stand up from this fucking horribly uncomfortable wooden chair, grab one of the glasses filled with a little too much tequila, and fire the shot back like a champ. “Felix Hernandez for 46!?!?” I shout out to the amused faces staring back at me from around the table. I did it! Felix is all but mine. No way Greg goes $47, he almost quit at $45!

“$46.50,” Greg says …

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Trevor Story and Spring Training Exploits

Trevor Story is the 30th ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post that I wrote in early February. I’m higher on him than most. In fact, I think I’m higher on him than any other prospect list I have read. But if you didn’t acquire Story at good value back in February, it is probably too late, as he has absolutely destroyed spring training pitching to the tune of, .378/.451/.911, with 6 homers in 51 PA. It seems like everyone has boarded the hype train. But it brings up the question, should his spring training stats matter?

In the sense that it has won him the starting SS job in Colorado, at least until/if Jose Reyes returns, his spring stats clearly matter. And for people that were either completely unaware of Story, or very down on his potential, then yeah, his monster spring stats should certainly put him on your radar. But for those of us who already knew and believed in the 20/20 upside, should his fantastic spring boost his stock even more? In other words, should we consider him a top 12 SS option for this season? After digging through some minor league stats from past years, the conclusion I came to is that I’m not so sure it should matter at all.

It didn’t take much searching before I found a good comparable, Mike Zunino. Just last spring, Zunino triple-slashed, .353/.431/.882, and jacked 7 homers in 58 spring training PA. Maybe this was a sign that the talented young hitter would finally break out? Nope. He followed that up with a regular season line of .174/.230/.300. The spring stats meant nothing. Similar to Story, Zunino was a young hitter with real strikeout issues. It isn’t a perfect comp, as Zunino can’t draw walks quite as well as Story, and had a history of struggling in the big leagues already. But what it does say to me, is that even an extreme case of spring training success will not guarantee a safe floor, let alone it being a harbinger for great success in the regular season.

There are many more examples. Well regarded hitting prospect Brandon Drury triple-slashed, .435/.533/.957, with 3 homers in 30 spring training PA last year. He then went on to put up a .756 OPS, with 5 total homers in 567 minor league PA split between Double-A and Triple-A, before hitting .214/.254/.375 in his MLB cup of coffee last September. Is he still considered a good hitting prospect? Yes. But were those spring training stats a good indicator for what he might do in his first taste of the majors? No.

We all know the old adage that spring training stats don’t matter, but it doesn’t stop us from getting drawn in year after year. I needed to dig into past spring training stats to remind myself of that. Pitchers are working on specific things and have no interest in making adjustments to what the hitter is doing. If Trevor Story wasn’t on your radar before, consider this his coming out party, but if he was, his hot spring training shouldn’t mean much to you. He is a talented fantasy prospect (top 30 in my book) who can surely surprise right out of the gate, but the more likely scenario is that there will be some bumps along the way. Add in the uncertainly surrounding Jose Reyes’ situation, and I don’t think Story has a great chance of cracking the top 12 this season. For 2016, I will give him a projection of 55/13/51/.250/8. For dynasty leagues, the strong spring only reinforces my high hopes for Story, and I will stick with my prime projection of 79/20/83/.258/14.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

The Argument for Carlos Correa at #4 Overall

“Too risky,” they say. Who is they? Probably you. That’s right, you are a member of the ignominious “they” now. Doesn’t feel so good, does it? But I’m here to make one last ditch effort to try to get you to see the light. Here is the argument for Carlos Correa at #4 overall:

1) Correa’s competition isn’t as safe as they appear (Donaldson, Arenado, Rizzo, Machado, Stanton, Cabrera, McCutchen)

Let’s start with Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rizzo, and Manny Machado. All of these guys have exactly one year of elite fantasy production, and only Donaldson managed to even crack the top 5 last season. Arenado finished 10th on Yahoo’s player rater, Machado finished 13th, and Rizzo 23rd. Their track records, which I guess is the reason they are considered safer than Correa, include multiple seasons of non-elite production for each player. It would not be the first time we attribute a “breakout” season to a player, when it ends up being closer to a career year in reality. Not to say I don’t think these guys had real breakouts, I do, but you can’t completely ignore the risk of regression, either.

Which brings us to Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Cabrera, and Andrew McCutchen. The risk factor for Stanton is obvious, injury. He has played in under 125 games in 3 of his 5 full major league seasons. As for Cabrera and McCutchen, they present the best arguments for picking a safe player over Correa, but their track records are starting to get a little too long, as some age related red flags popped up for both of them last season. Cabrera’s came in the form of injuries. He played in only 119 games in 2015 after being a pillar of health his entire career. McCutchen’s came in the form of stolen bases. He stole a career low 11 bags, on a career low 16 attempts last season. This coming off establishing career lows in both categories in 2014. I actually have Cabrera and McCutchen ranked slightly higher than the general consensus, so I do value the safety of a long track record, but the longer the track record gets, the more wear and tear risks come into play.

2) 5-category production

Picking true 5-category producers in the early rounds, rather than pure power guys, will give you the flexibility to seek value in the later rounds, no matter what form it comes in. You won’t have to pass on your favorite sleepers, or that stud that keeps falling, because you ignored speed, or average, earlier in the draft. Arenado, Cabrera, and Donaldson are not going to give you much in the way of steals. Rizzo and Stanton fall more into the “sneaky” steals category, and don’t think you can count on them for true 5-category production like a 20+ steal Correa will provide. McCutchen’s declining stolen base totals and attempts were discussed above. Machado is the most interesting case. If I were more confident in his ability to steal bases, he very well might be deserving of the #4 spot (at least in a Yahoo league where he has SS eligibility), but his past history, poor stolen base percentage, and average speed grades suggest his 20 steal season in 2015 might be hard to repeat.

The 5-category production argument is also the major reason why I wouldn’t draft Clayton Kershaw ahead of Correa, either. Through no fault of his own, Kershaw is limited to being a 4-category producer. I also believe in an overarching draft strategy of favoring hitters over pitchers. I’m always going to take one of the elite hitters in the first round of a draft, no matter how dominant a pitcher is. I have been in many leagues where I have seen a pitching heavy strategy work, so I don’t think drafting Kershaw #4 overall is disastrous, but it is just not a strategy I will employ.

3) The much maligned positional scarcity

Positional scarcity should not be a major factor when you are drafting, and that’s the point, Correa can stand at #4 on his own merits, without the positional scarcity handicap. But it also doesn’t mean we should completely ignore it. The entire SS position is riddled with risk, starting with the moving away from Coors, oft injured Troy Tulowitzi, right on through to all of the highly touted youngsters (Xander Bogaerts, Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor). Ending up with Evan Longoria as your 3B, or Mark Teixeira/Brandon Belt as your 1B, is far safer than guys like Marcus Semien or Ketel Marte, as much as I like them as sleeper candidates myself. So while it may feel like you are going “safe” by passing on Correa in the first round, you are really just reallocating some of that risk to later in the draft.

4) Carlos Correa is a beast

As for Correa himself, he put up a fantasy line of 52/22/68/.279/14 in 432 MLB PA last season. He then played even better in the post season, putting up a .903 OPS with 2 homers in 25 PA. This coming off a MiLB hitting line of 44/10/44/.335/18 in 246 PA split between Double-A and Triple-A. And for the cherry on top, he is triple-slashing .419/.513/.774, with a 1.287 OPS and 3 homers in 39 PA so far this Spring. There is not a single scouting report that doesn’t absolutely love this kid. It is seriously looking like the riskier bet is actually betting against Correa to keep on hitting. And that 5-category production from the shortstop position is too risky to pass up after the big 3 are off the board.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

How to Bet Day 2 of the Sweet 16: March Madness Survivor and ATS

Last night’s smooth sailing with all of the favorites winning by double figures might have just been the calm before the storm, because tonight’s slate of games looks much more treacherous. But there is no room for fear in sports gambling, so I’ll look to avenge my Duke loss and even up my ATS record, and more importantly, survive to fight another day in March Madness Survivor.

Survivor Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs

My bracket buster pick coming out of the Midwest region has lived up to their billing, and with Michigan St. getting knocked off, the opportunity presents itself to use Gonzaga as a survivor pick as well. The tremendous play of their talented frontcourt duo, Sabonis and Wiltjer, plus the surprisingly good guard play they have received in the first two rounds, has only hardened my belief that Gonzaga was being underrated coming into the tournament. Their opponent, Syracuse, has also played very well in the first two rounds, but wins against Dayton and Middle Tennessee doesn’t exactly have me running to jump on the ‘Cuse bandwagon. I’m going to live or die with the Bulldogs tonight.

ATS Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels -5

It looks like the cream might finally be rising to the top in this “no clear favorite” tourney, as North Carolina has absolutely rolled so far. They come into this game vs. Indiana on a seven game winning streak, and a 9-0 record when playing games on a neutral court this season. I don’t love giving the 5 points, as Indiana is a good team that is not just going to lie down, but I’ll stick with my Tobacco road picks, and hope the luck evens out for me with the Tar Heels tonight.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Delayed Live Blogging Day 1 of the Sweet Sixteen: Part 3

How can something be live and delayed at the same time? I’m not exactly sure, but I’ll be writing it live, and posting it delayed.

5:55 – 7:11 pm
7:12 – 9:45 pm
10:04 – 12:15 am

10:04 pm – The refs once again call one of those ridiculous hanging on the rim techs on Maryland. I love 5’7’’ refs deciding when it is safe for 6’9’’ players hanging 10 feet off the ground to land. Officiating in the tournament has been spotty as usual.

10:10 pm – Kobe in the building at the Duke vs. Oregon game! He has gone through some transformation this year, huh. He went from the Black Mamba, to the … um … to an animal that is far more gentle than a Black Mamba. A sheep?

10:18 pm – Plumlee picks up his 2nd foul just 5 minutes into the game. Jeter is going to have to live up to his namesake if Duke wants to win this game.

10:39 pm – Brandon Ingram making a run at that #1 pick in the draft with two huge threes from the top of the key. Then completely bricks the classic “heat check” shot on his third attempt. Gotta respect the heat check no matter how misguided.

11:01 pm – Duke down 5 at the half and they are lucky to be down only that much. Remember when I said Jeter was going to need to step up? He didn’t. The guy has hands of stone. And stones are the ones that should take offense to that comparison.

11:27 pm – It seems like Kansas has been up by 7 for about 10 minutes now. Doesn’t really look like Maryland has a run in them.

11:32 pm – Duke goes down by 11. The good news is that two of my March Madness survivor teammates picked Oregon. Bad news, I hypothetically put down a small wager on Duke if gambling was legal.

11:43 pm – Kansas up 16 with under 4 minutes to play. Game over. Duke down 14 with 10 minutes to play. Game almost over.

12:03 am – Well, I was right that Ingram was going to be the best player on the court, and I was right that Coach K was the best coach, but I was wrong about everything else. Oregon is just a better team.

12:15 am – All the favorites are moving on tonight. I won my survivor pick and lost my bet. Can’t win ‘em all. I would rather survive, so I’ll take it. Can’t wait to do it all over again tomorrow night!

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Delayed Live Blogging Day 1 of the Sweet Sixteen: Part 2

How can something be live and delayed at the same time? I’m not exactly sure, but I’ll be writing it live, and posting it delayed.

5:55 – 7:11 pm
7:12 – 9:41 pm

7:12 pm – The camera caught Jim Larranaga tightening up the loafers and pulling the dress socks up high. Looks like he would get out there in full suit and tie if Miami needed him.

7:13 pm – Crowd looks completely empty behind Miami’s bench and jammed packed behind Nova. I guess even NCAA Tournament games have late arriving crowds these days.

7:30 pm – Ryan Arcidiacono is absolutely on fire. He has 13 of teams first 20 points. Timeout Miami. They need to respond.

7:40 pm – And respond they did, with a 12-0 run, capped off with a step back, Angel Rodriguez three. Other than a monster dunk, nothing is as sweet as the step back three.

7:54 pm – Nova player just drilled a shot from like 35 feet. I feel like Stephen Curry has somehow raised the collective shooting range of basketball players everywhere.

8:03 pm – Both games in commercial break. I just bought this Air Purifier for my insanely dusty apartment. If the color on the display is blue, that means the air is pure. Orange means medium pollutants are detected. Bright red is heavy pollutants detected. The thing has been bright red since I turned it on 6 hours ago. That can’t be good.

8:09 pm – Perfect time for the Nova/Miami game to go to halftime, right as my Survivor pick, Oklahoma, builds up a 10-point lead.

8:25 pm – Oklahoma goes into halftime up 19. A&M is going to need another miracle … I don’t see it happening.

8:26 pm – Is there a reason the sideline reporters need to be inches from the coaches faces? Tracey Wolfson was practically in Jay Wright’s armpit during their halftime interview. LaForce was going with the close talker from Seinfeld style. Can’t they just get a slightly wider camera angle to make it normal?

8:53 pm – The air purifier is down to orange! There is hope … for me, but not for Miami. Arcidiacono just nailed another 3 to put Nova up 20 with 5 minutes to go.

9:10 pm – Nova moving on. Cue Wolfson in Wright’s pit.

9:39 pm – Oklahoma moving on. Cue LaForce centimeters from Kruger’s face. Wait, even better! LaForce, Kruger, and Hield are literally arm in arm!

9:41 pm – Air purifier back to bright red. Hope that is not a bad omen for my Duke pick …

10:04 – 12:15 am

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Delayed Live Blogging Day 1 of the Sweet Sixteen

How can something be live and delayed at the same time? I’m not exactly sure, but I’ll be writing it live, and posting it delayed.

5:55 – 7:11 pm

5:55 pm – I tuned in five minutes too early to watch the pre-game show, and now I’m forced to watch 5 minutes too many of Friends. Ross is having a baby, if you were curious.

6:00 pm – The Turner Sports intro montage starts with LeBron throwing down a nasty dunk, Stephen Curry hitting a 3 in a defender’s eye, Bryce Harper smacking a home run, and then … Rory McIlroy putting? Seriously?

6:03 pm – Studio shot opens with Ernie Johnson, Wally Szczerbiak, Seth Davis, and Buzz Williams. Where the hell is Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley?

6:09 pm – Kenny and Charles are in the New York Studio! Phew. Along with Greg Gumbel and Clark Kellogg.

6:15 pm – All of the “experts” like Villanova over Miami (so do I). Is it too late to get those bets in on Miami?

6:20 pm – Texas A&M players saying they are a team of destiny. More like Final Destination.

6:25 pm – Ernie throws it to sideline reporter Allie LaForce. I wonder if changing your last name actually makes people think differently about you. Maybe keeping Michael Halpern is a mistake. Michael LaGenius is the answer! (Or not)

6:40 pm – This pre-game show desperately needs more Kenny and Charles. Send it back to the New York studio already!

6:45 pm – Love Coach K getting chippy when asked about that 0-4 NCAA record on the West coast. His answer didn’t really make that much sense, but who cares!

6:51 pm – Fun fact: I met Wally Szczerbiak at a bar on Long Island one night. Really nice guy. More importantly, the women in his crew were all insanely hot. Legitimate models.

6:59 pm – They are doing a piece with Buddy Hield in the Barbershop while he is getting a buzz and shave. He is trying to do an interview while the barber has a razor around his throat and mouth! Stop talking, Buddy, the interview isn’t worth it!

7:00 pm – The real pre-game show is starting on CBS. I need more TV’s. It is going to be tough flipping between these four great games. Is split screen still a thing on your remote? Sounded like such a great idea when it first came out, and was so horrible in practice for some reason.

7:08 pm – Both channels are in commercial. Maybe one TV is just fine.

7:11 pm – Miami vs. Nova is about to tip off. Catch you guys in a little bit.

7:12 – 9:41 pm
10:04 – 12:15 am

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

How to Bet Day 1 of the Sweet 16: March Madness Survivor and ATS

If you survived through the first weekend of your March Madness Survivor pool, congratulations, you deftly avoided several landmines. If you did it on the backs of 20 other teammates (like I did), two-thirds of whom were obliterated by said landmines, I take that congratulations back, you accomplished nothing. In either case, it is time to stop patting yourself on the back, and get back to work. It only gets harder from here.

Because there are “only” four games per night in the Sweet 16 (Thursday and Friday), and most people’s brackets are busted beyond recognition, I will include an against the spread pick to keep things interesting.

Survivor Pick: Oklahoma Sooners

Kansas is the “safe” pick, but you are going to need to use them later in the tournament. Now is the time to use your Oklahoma Sooners bullet, if you have not fired that one off already. Oklahoma is led by one of the best and most exciting players in the country, Buddy Hield. He just dropped 36 points on VCU to lead Oklahoma to the Sweet 16. But they are more than just Hield, as three other players average double figures. They have one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the county, and a nasty front court player in Ryan Spangler, who averaged 9.3 rpg.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M just went on an emotional rollercoaster ride, needing a miracle to beat Northern Iowa in double OT. They celebrated like they just won the national championship, and maybe rightfully so, considering the way they came back from the dead. But this looked like a team that was destined to get knocked off. And if you have seen the Final Destination movies, you know death doesn’t quit. Take the Sooners on Thursday night.

ATS Pick: Duke Blue Devils +3

I’m going to keep riding Duke, and their seemingly, surprisingly underrated trio of Brandon Ingram, Grayson Allen, and Marshall Plumlee. Maybe the 2nd half scare vs. Yale have some running for the hills, but Yale was a legitimate team with no quit in them. And Oregon struggled themselves in round 2 vs. St. Joseph’s, pulling off a narrow victory after being down seven with five minutes to play. In this Duke vs. Oregon Sweet 16 matchup, Duke will have the best player on the court, Ingram, and the best coach, Mike Krzyzewski. This should be a close game, but I like Duke to win it, and the 3 points are just gravy.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Busted Bracket Monday

After the basketball Gods graced us with four consecutive days, from high noon until midnight, of pure basketball bliss, it has come time for them to collect their penance from us fools who dared to attempt to predict the outcomes of these games. The unforgiving red slashes that litter our digital brackets today are a humble reminder that the future is uncertain, and we aren’t very good at predicting it. But it sure as hell won’t stop us from trying! Here are four thoughts to help make sense of the first two rounds of the 2016 NCAA Tournament:

1) If you still question God’s role in this tournament, just listen to who 99% of the winners gave all the credit to in their post-game interviews, none other than Jesus Christ himself. Ancient Aliens has really dropped the ball for not doing an episode on this … “Am I saying extraterrestrials are solely responsible for determining the winners and losers of NCAA tournament games? … Yes, yes that is exactly what I’m saying.”

2) 15 teams in the Sweet 16 are from major conferences (6 from the ACC), and the 16th team is Gonzaga, an established college basketball powerhouse. Who said there was parity in college basketball this year?

3) My championship pick, Michigan St., and another one of my final four picks, West Virginia, were both eliminated in the first round. Two of my sleeper/bracket buster picks, Wisconsin and Gonzaga, advanced to the Sweet 16, and three others, Hawaii, St. Joseph’s, and VCU, won their first round games and put up a heck of a fight in round two. I’ll take this small sample size to mean that I am a genius at picking underdogs, and unlucky when picking the favorites. 🙂

4) Bill Murray’s sad face while watching Xavier lose at the buzzer yesterday, basically sums up the collective feeling of Busted Bracket Monday:

Bill Murray

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Four Thoughts Following Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament

1) Maybe it was just me, or maybe it is from watching Stephen Curry routinely make unthinkable HORSE shots in games, but when Josh Hagins of Little Rock pulled up from the half court logo to attempt a last second, game tying 3-point shot, I immediately thought it was going to drop. And it did. Two overtimes later, and Little Rock was dancing, literally and figuratively. I had Purdue making a deep tournament run, so this busted my bracket a bit, but I can’t deny that I love to see Cinderella’s pull off crazy upsets like this.

2) That little dude on Yale, Makai Mason, played out of his mind. The only thing Baylor could do was fight amongst themselves during timeouts. In a one game elimination, all it takes is one guy to get hot to pull off a big upset. But it wasn’t just a fluke, Yale has a legitimate squad. They are big, hit the boards, play strong team defense, and share the ball on offense. Yale will face Duke in the 2nd round, who beat them by 19 points earlier in the year, but I would expect Saturday’s game to be much closer.

3) Grayson Allen, Brandon Ingram, and Marshall Plumlee are a beast of a triumvirate. Duke played the entire game vs. UNC Wilmington in 2nd gear, except for one 8-minute stretch to begin the 2nd half which basically ended the game. It wasn’t a blow out, but it never felt like Duke was truly in danger of losing. I still like them as my Final Four pick from the wide open West region.

4) Two of my sleeper picks, Purdue and Arizona, were sent home. Thanks for showing up guys, you can pick up your participation ribbons at the airport. My only “bracket buster” pick that played yesterday, Gonzaga, cruised to victory on the back of Sabonis’ stat stuffing performance (21 pts, 16 rebs, 4 asts, 2 blks, 1 stl). I wouldn’t bet against them in round 2 vs. Utah.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)