Matt Wieters, 2016 Fantasy Sleeper

Owning the Baltimore Orioles’ Matt Wieters in fantasy baseball last season, was like waiting for your perpetually late friend to finally show up for dinner. 15 minutes after they are already supposed to be there, you get a text saying they will be there in “5 min.” 45 minutes later, they finally show up. Just take a look at Wieters’ Rotoworld updates prior to finally making his 2015 debut:

December 21, 2014 – “Agent Scott Boras has said that his client, Matt Wieters (elbow), will be ready to play on Opening Day … as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery.”

February 28, 2015 – “Everything is trending toward the 28-year-old being ready for Opening Day.”

March 20, 2015 – “Wieters is dealing with some tendinitis in his surgically-repaired right elbow. The Orioles aren’t viewing it as a setback and are still hopeful of him being ready for Opening Day.”

March 21, 2015 – “The Orioles are tentatively targeting a return on April 11, citing this as a precautionary measure rather than a setback in his recovery.”

April 8, 2015 – “The Orioles are going to continue to play it safe with their star catcher, who probably won’t be ready until sometime in early May.”

May 1, 2015 – “A return in late May or early June for Matt Wieters (elbow) ‘seems reasonable.’”

May 10, 2015 – “Wieters continues to rehab in extended spring training and is on track to rejoin the Orioles at some point in June.”

June 5, 2015 – “Wieters will make his season debut on Friday after making his way back from Tommy John surgery.”

You see what I mean? Even after he made his debut, Wieters still dealt with lingering arm soreness all season, and needed to be heavily rested. He never allowed himself to properly heal from his torn UCL, and his playing time and production took a hit as a result. He played in only 75 games, triple-slashing .267/.319/.422, and hitting 8 homers.

The silver lining in all of this, is that his injury-ravaged 2015 makes him an ideal fantasy sleeper for 2016. With a full offseason of rest, and almost two years removed from the surgery, Wieters figures to be fully healthy this upcoming year. His 2015 numbers actually look pretty good considering the circumstances, and were not far off from his career averages. Wieters was also enjoying a strong start to the 2014 season before tearing his UCL, hitting .308/.339/.500, with 5 homers in 104 at-bats. In the three years prior to the injury, he hit 22, 23, and 22 homers, respectively.

All signs point to the 29-year-old Wieters having a bounce back season in 2016. On top of that, he still has the kind of raw talent and ability (he was ranked the #1 overall prospect in all of baseball in 2009), that a late career breakout is not out of the question. For 2016, I will give Wieters the projection of 62/21/75/.270/0, and should easily finish as a top 10 fantasy catcher.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Aziz Ansari, Master of None

Aziz Ansari is notorious for his jovial, high energy, balls to the wall comedy style. Best known for his role as Tom Haverford on Parks and Recreation, Aziz often plays the character of everyone’s best friend. The not a care in the world, ceaselessly optimistic guy. It is that same personality that shines through during his stand-up comedy specials. But if you listened close enough, you would have noticed a gritty undertone that was just waiting to bust out. And Master of None is its coming out party.

If Aziz was a pop singer, Master of None would be his stripped down, acoustic album. Saying all of the things he wanted to say before, but couldn’t. Filmed and directed in a style similar to Louie, it tackles the topics of dating, sex, marriage, career, family, and racial stereotypes. Master of None is not the gut-busting comedy we are used to seeing from Aziz. The jokes strike on a much deeper, personal level. The comedic situations stem from the day-to-day challenges that life throws our way. It is the voice of a generation that is fighting to make its mark and find its place in this world.

The role of Aziz’s father is played by his real father. And he steals every scene he is in. Eric Wareheim plays the role that Aziz usually gets cast in, as the funny best friend. You can’t help but to be won over by his quirky, cuddly, understated comedy style. And Danielle Brooks absolutely kills it in the one episode she appears in, playing the role of Aziz’s agent. I only wish she had a larger role. There are even cameos made by Claire Danes and Busta Rhymes.

Aziz has already proven hilarious in roles where the audience can just turn off their brains and laugh for a little while. With Master of None, he has now taken his comedy game to the next level. Do not let the title of the show fool you, Aziz Ansari is most certainly on his way to becoming a Master of Comedy.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Jimmy Nelson, 2016 Fantasy Sleeper

Jimmy Nelson was labeled a fantasy “breakout” candidate last year. He did not breakout. Now he gets downgraded to the less dignified “sleeper” label. I’m cutthroat like that. He must pay for his mediocrity! Which is exactly how he pitched last year. Nelson finished the 2015 season for the Milwaukee Brewers with a 4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 148 K’s in 177.1 IP. At certain points during the year, he looked like a top 15 fantasy starter. At others, he looked unrosterable. It was that inconsistency which makes him an intriguing fantasy sleeper for 2016, because nobody wants someone who is consistently mediocre. You hear that kids! Be awesome, or be awful. People will think you are full of potential!

Nelson does have real potential though. He throws a 93-94 MPH fastball, a nasty slider, and a knuckle curveball that he added to his arsenal prior to last season. The knuckle curve graded out as an average pitch in his first year of using it. With continued refinement, it can become a deadly weapon combined with his big fastball and plus slider.

Nelson has also been a pillar of health throughout his entire professional career. He pitched 146 innings in 2011, 127.1 innings in 2012, 152.1 innings in 2013, 180.1 innings in 2014, and 177.1 innings in 2015. His 6’6’’, 243-pound build is tailor made to be an innings eating, workhorse starter. The strikeout potential is there too. Nelson struck out 549 batters in 563.1 IP in his minor league career. In 2014, he struck out 114 batters in 111 IP while pitching in the PCL, a league that is death on pitchers. In his first 256.2 IP in the majors, he struck out a respectable 213 batters.

Nelson will still have to pitch in the launching pad that is Miller Park, which does cap his upside a bit. For 2016, I will give Nelson the projection of 3.51/1.25/178 in 192 IP. The 26-year-old holds even more value in dynasty/keeper leagues.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

NFL Playoff Picks: NFC Wild Card Round

The NFC Wild Card Round will be played this Sunday, January 10, 2016. The two clear favorites in the NFC, Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals, have first-round byes, and will be awaiting the teams that survive this round

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Sea – 5

Seattle: Seattle has the 4th best point differential in the league, outscoring their opponents by 146 combined points. They have the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL, and have allowed the least amount of points, surrendering only 17.3 points per game. QB Russell Wilson had a breakout season as a passer this year, throwing for 4,024 yards and 34 touchdowns. Everyone just assumed this breakout would eventually happen, so nobody is really talking about it, but it is a major step forward for Wilson. Even with RB Marshawn Lynch banged up all season, Seattle rushed for the 3rd most yards in the NFL. They have won eight of their last ten games. If you have not figured it out yet, Seattle is still very, very good.

Minnesota: Minnesota has the 9th best point differential in the league, outscoring their opponents by 63 combined points. They have the 13th ranked defense and 29th ranked offense in the NFL. QB Teddy Bridgewater failed to improve on his impressive rookie season this year, throwing for only 14 touchdowns in 16 games. On the bright side, RB Adrian Peterson picked up right where he left off after missing almost all of last season. He rushed for 1,485 yards and 11 touchdowns, leading Minnesota’s 4th ranked rushing attack. Minnesota comes into the playoffs on a three-game winning streak, outscoring their opponents (CHI, NYG, GB) by 60 points in those games alone.

The Pick: Seattle dominated Minnesota, 38-7, when these two teams met just one month ago. With Minnesota at home for this game, I would expect them to put up a much better fight this time around. But it will still likely not be enough to topple their superior opponent. Take Seattle giving the five points, but don’t think it is going to be easy.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins
Spread: Wash – 1

I would be lying if I told you I have any idea how this game is going to play out. Green Bay has been underwhelming this entire season, and has lost their last two games. Washington is on a four-game win streak, and is playing at home. Kirk Cousins had a better QB rating, 101.6, than Aaron Rodgers did this year, 92.7. And yet, I still cannot find it in me to trust Washington.

The Pick: Pass. If I was forced to pick, I would put my money on Rodgers and live with the results.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

NFL Playoff Picks: AFC Wild Card Round

The NFL Playoffs kickoff this Saturday, starting with the AFC Wild Card Round. The AFC is wide open this year, and one of these teams can easily find themselves representing the AFC in Super Bowl 50.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
Spread: KC – 3.5

Houston: Completely throw out KC’s 27-20 victory over Houston in Week 1. Both teams are playing at a completely different level than they were earlier in the season. Led by last year’s Defensive Player of the Year, and prolific television commercial actor, JJ Watt, Houston comes into Saturday’s game with the 3rd ranked defense in the league. QB Brian Hoyer also enjoyed a quiet breakout season, putting up a 91.4 QB Rating in 11 games. And the best WR that nobody is talking about, DeAndre Hopkins, just torched the league to the tune of 111/1,521/11. Houston has won six of their last eight games, and are fired up to avenge their Week 1 loss.

Kansas City: KC is on a 10-game win streak of their own, and have been the talk of the NFL for weeks now. They are not invincible though. They struggled to beat the Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders at home the last two weeks, winning by a measly ten combined points. Alex Smith is also not the strong-armed, gun slinging QB you want to bet on in a road playoff game against the 3rd best pass defense in the league. Do not be surprised if KC finds it very hard to come by points this Saturday. KC does have a strong defense, ranked 7th in the league, but they are not the type of dominating unit that can carry the team on their own.

The Pick: If you are looking for the “nobody believed in us” team, Houston is it. Admit it, you still don’t believe in them (Update: And for good reason, as they just got blown out 30-0 on Saturday). I do though. Take Houston at home plus the 3.5 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Pitt -3

Andy Dalton got injured at the wrong time. Big Ben’s injury came at the right time. I could write a longer analysis, but sometimes it really is that simple.

The Pick: Pitt -3

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Bill Burr, F is for Family

Bill Burr is firmly entrenched as one of the best stand-up comedians in the world. He is a mastermind at finding comedy in how men think, and why we act like we do. While being funny is surely his number one goal, what makes him great are that his insights cut on a much deeper level. Some try to pigeonhole Burr as the typical Neanderthal man, but it is that exact stereotype that Burr loves to play on, and ultimately rejects using “hilarious wisdom.”

Five minutes into watching the first episode of Burr’s Netflix show, F is for Family, it becomes clear his signature humor will easily slice through the animated comedy format. Truth be told, I am not a huge fan of many animated comedies. The situations can become too unrealistic and lose ties to any kind of reality. When I mention this criticism to friends, I am told that is the exact reason why they love animated comedies. To each their own. Either way, F is for Family does not fall into these traps.

The show is set around a lower middle class family living in the 1970’s. The humor is anything but outdated though. Much of the show’s humor is filtered through the lens of modern day society and technology. It pokes fun at a bygone era, while managing to hold on to just enough nostalgia to give the show its heart. Focusing on themes like work, family, and keeping up with the Joneses, F is for Family relates to a wide audience.

Season 1 gave viewers just a small window into the thoughts rattling around in Burr’s head. He has not even begun to flex his considerable comedic muscles. If Burr is not enough star power for you, Vince Vaughn is a producer, and Justin Long is the voice of the oldest son. The pieces are in place to make something really special here. I look forward to seeing if Burr and F is for Family can further capitalize on their considerable potential in Season 2.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

2016 Fantasy Football Playoff Rankings

If you were not tortured enough by fantasy football during the regular season, have no fear, there is fantasy football during the playoffs too! Added bonus is that you not only have to predict player performance, you also have to predict how many games they will play in. What can go wrong?

QB
1) Cam Newton CAR – 35 pass TD’s. 10 rush TD’s. 15-1 record. Don’t overthink it.
2) Tom Brady NE – Best QB and the best team in a suddenly weak AFC.
3) Ben Roethlisberger PIT – Weak AFC leaves door open for Big Ben and Pitt to make a deep playoff run. Extra wildcard game could play in his favor.
4) Russell Wilson SEA – High upside play. If you believe the two-time NFC champs have one more run in them, move Wilson up.
5) Carson Palmer ARI – Likely matchups with Seattle and Carolina dampens upside.
6) Brian Hoyer HOU – Sleeper alert! Houston came together when nobody was watching, and they throw the ball a ton.
7) Aaron Rodgers GB – Against my better judgment, still believe Green Bay might be a sleeping giant. High risk, high reward.
8) Peyton Manning DEN – Ground and pound is the new rallying cry in Denver. Still think we see flashes of vintage Manning at some point this postseason.
9) Kirk Cousins WASH – Sneaky strong fantasy QB this season. Forgive me for not believing in Washington though.
10) Alex Smith KC – Low upside. On the road against a strong Houston pass defense.
11) Teddy Bridgewater MIN – At home vs. Seattle. Believe in Minnesota if you want. I don’t.
12) AJ McCarron CIN – Strong Cincy team could carry AJ for a game or two. I wouldn’t bet on it though.
13) Andy Dalton CIN – Should be healthy in time for the golf course.
14) Brock Osweiler DEN – Played himself out of the starter’s job. No reason to think he gets it back.

RB
1) David Johnson ARI – Enjoyed huge breakout in 2nd half of season. Dual threat back on powerhouse offense.
2) Jonathon Stewart CAR – Safe pick. Lead back on Super Bowl favorite.
3) James White NE – Came on as Pats passing-down back in 2nd half.
4) Fitzgerald Toussaint PIT – Sleeper alert! If DeAngelo Williams doesn’t play, Toussaint has a chance to breakout. Even if Williams plays, he should have a role in the offense. Update: Williams still in a walking boot. Unlikely to play on Saturday.
5) Adrian Peterson MIN – #1 RB talent. Will likely play only one game, two at best.
6) CJ Anderson DEN – In a true timeshare with Ronnie Hillman. Both should get plenty of work though.
7) Eddie Lacy GB – One more opportunity for Lacy to disappoint you this year.
8) Ronnie Hillman DEN – See, CJ Anderson.
9) Alfred Blue HOU – Houston bell cow back.
10) Alfred Morris WASH – Only RB you can trust in Washington’s crowded backfield.
11) Charcandrick West KC – The strong side of a timeshare with Spencer Ware.
12) Christine Michael SEA The Feminist broke out in a big way Week 17, and could get carries even with Lynch healthy. Update: Marshawn Lynch ruled out for Sunday’s game. Michael will get the start.
13) Jeremy Hill CIN – The strong side of a timeshare with Giovanni Bernard.
14) Giovanni Bernard CIN – If Cincy falls behind early, Gio has chance to rack up garbage time points. On the flip side, that would be the only game he plays.
15) Spencer Ware KC – See, Charcandrick West.
16) James Starks GB – Everyone’s favorite Lacy spoiler. GB won’t hesitate to use Sparks if Lacy falters.
17) Brandon Bolden NE – Good luck guessing what Bill Belichick is going to do.
18) Stephen Jackson NE – Look up one centimeter.
19) Marshawn Lynch SEA – Beast will be unleashed for the playoffs. Update: Lynch ruled out for Sunday’s game. Beast will have to wait for next week to be unleashed.
20) DeAngelo Williams PIT – Day-to-day with foot injury. #1 RB upside if healthy. Update: Unlikely to play Saturday. Still time to get healthy for next round.
21) Matt Jones WASH
22) Cameron Artis-Payne CAR
23) Andre Ellington ARI
24) Mike Tolbert CAR
25) Jonathon Grimes HOU
26) Fred Jackson SEA
27) Jerick McKinnon MIN

WR
1) Antonio Brown PIT – 136/1,834/10. Draft first overall.
2) DeAndre Hopkins HOU – Least hyped stud WR in football. Pass up at your own risk.
3) Doug Baldwin SEA – Blew up down the stretch. No reason to think that shouldn’t continue into the playoffs.
4) Demaryius Thomas DEN – He feels riskier than his numbers indicate.
5) Larry Fitzgerald ARI – Slowed down in the 2nd half, but is still the safest WR choice in the pool.
6) Julian Edelman NE – #1 WR upside. But will he be limited in his first game back from a broken foot?
7) Tedd Ginn CAR – Newton’s favorite WR target. A long postseason run could make Ginn look underrated in hindsight.
8) Michael Floyd ARI – Finally became the player everyone was waiting for in the 2nd half. Has a chance to make the playoffs his coming out party.
9) Emmanuel Sanders DEN– How much do you trust Manning’s deep ball?
10) AJ Green CIN – Losing Dalton tanks Green’s value. Even this might be a generous ranking.
11) John Brown ARI – Might be ranked 3rd out of ARI WR’s, but wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up with the most fantasy points.
12) Martavis Bryant PIT – Had flashes of dominance this year. High upside pick.
13) Randall Cobb GB – I just can’t quit GB skill position players. More name value at this point.
14) Jeremy Maclin KC– Faces tough matchup on the road vs. Hou.
15) James Jones GB – Inconsistent regular season. Gut feeling, Jones will have his moment this postseason.
16) Tyler Lockett SEA – Quintessential boom or bust pick. Type of pick that can win you the league.
17) DeSean Jackson WASH– Has been banged up and could be facing a one-and-done. High risk.
18) Brandon LaFell NE – Low risk, low upside. Should see his share of targets, but don’t expect anything special.
19) Devin Funchess CAR – I’m going to keep riding that Carolina bandwagon.
20) Markus Wheaton PIT – Can I ride the Pitt bandwagon and the Carolina bandwagon simultaneously?
21) Danny Amendola NE
22) Davante Adams GB
23) Pierre Garcon WASH
24) Stefon Diggs MIN
25) Jermaine Kearse SEA
26) Philly Brown CAR
27) Keshawn Martin NE
28) Nate Washington HOU
29) Cecil Shorts HOU
30) Jerricho Cotchery CAR
31) Marvin Jones CIN

TE
1) Rob Gronkowski NE – Argument can be made he should be the #1 overall pick.
2) Greg Olson CAR – TE’s drop off a cliff after Olsen.
3) Jordan Reed WASH – 2nd best TE in fantasy, but will his team make it out of the first round?
4) Heath Miller PIT – Banking more on Pitt making a run than Miller dominating.
5) Richard Rodgers GB – High upside pick. Big red zone target for Rodgers.
6) Travis Kelce KC – If you are high on KC, I can see moving Kelce up. That can be said for all KC players I ranked.
7) Tyler Eifert CIN – It really is a shame Dalton is hurt. This Cincy team would have been a force.
8) Owen Daniels DEN
9) Kyle Rudolph MIN
10) Jermaine Gresham ARI
11) Scott Chandler NE
12) Luke Willson SEA
13) Cooper Helfet SEA
14) Vernon Davis DEN

K
1) Stephen Gostkowski NE
2) Graham Gano CAR
3) Steven Hauschka SEA
4) Chandler Catanzaro ARI
5) Brandon McManus DEN
6) Chris Boswell PIT
7) Mason Crosby GB
8) Cairo Santos KC
9) Nick Novak HOU
10) Blair Walsh MIN
11) Dustin Hopkins WASH
12) Mike Nugent CIN

DEF
1) Seattle
2) Carolina
3) Denver
4) Arizona
5) New England
6) Pittsburgh
7) Houston
8) Green Bay
9) Kansas City
10) Washington
11) Cincinnati
12) Minnesota

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Matz vs. Severino

There ain’t enough room in this town for the both of ‘em! Well, New York has two baseball teams and ten rotation spots between them, so maybe there is. But they can’t both dominate the back pages of the New York papers! I guess they can on different days. But only one can be the talk of the town! Eh, it is a pretty big “town,” both of them can generate plenty of talk. It is the fan rivalry that really matters though! Mets fans cannot stand the Yankees and Yankees fans cannot sta … well actually, Yankees fans don’t really care about the Mets. Damn it! It should be a lot easier to drum up some drama over this. One last try:

NEW YORK!!! METS’ PHENOM PROSPECT VS. YANKEES’ PITCHING PRODIGY! ONLY ONE CAN PREVAIL!

That will have to do.

Steven Matz: Baseball America ranked Matz the 33rd best prospect in baseball coming into the 2015 season. He went on to dominate Triple-A in the Pacific Coast League, a league notorious for being very tough on pitchers. This earned him a call up to the big leagues, where he put up a miniscule 2.27 ERA, striking out 34 batters in 35.2 innings pitched. A big lefty, with a prototypical pitcher’s build (6’2’’, 200 pounds), Matz’s electric stuff backs up the early results. His 95 MPH fastball is the first thing to jump out at you, but he compliments that with a plus curveball and change-up.

Matz does not come without a few red flags. His injury history being the most concerning. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010, and didn’t become symptom-free for two years. Don’t believe me? Matz told a reporter earlier this year, “I had the surgery on May 18, 2010. I didn’t become symptom-free for two years.” Because of the injury setbacks, Matz was considered old (as far as top prospects go) at each of his minor league stops, delaying his major league debut until he was 24 years old. The injury bug has already hit Matz in the majors. He missed six weeks with a torn lat muscle towards the end of last year.

Luis Severino: Baseball America ranked Severino the 35th best prospect in baseball coming into the 2015 season. Like Matz, after dominating in the minors to start the year, Severino did not miss a beat once getting called up. He pitched to a 2.89 ERA, striking out 56 batters in 62.1 innings pitched. He also throws a big, 95 MPH fastball, complimented by a plus slider and developing change-up.

Unlike Matz, Severino made his major league debut as a 21-year-old, with a spotless record of health. He also entered a much tougher pitching environment. The AL East scored the most runs in baseball last year, and Yankee Stadium is notoriously tough on right-handed pitchers. Matz pitched in a pitcher’s park (Citi Field), against the weakest hitting division in baseball (NL East), and in a league where the pitcher hits (NL).

Severino is not without his warts either. Listed at 6’0’’, 195 pounds, he is considered undersized to be a major league starter. Compounding this issue, he does not utilize the lower half of his body enough during his delivery. This results in putting excess stress on his arm to generate most of his power, increasing the risk of an arm-related injury. Severino is also more raw than Matz, as his secondary pitches are not as refined and consistent.

Verdict: For fantasy baseball, Matz is the guy you want. The far superior pitching conditions he will face makes that an easy call. In real life, Severino gets the slight edge. His spotless track record of health, compared to Matz’s littered injury history, is too much to ignore. Nothing is more important than a pitcher’s health. For 2016, I will give Matz a projection of 3.49/1.23/156 in 160 IP. I will give Severino the projection of 3.68/1.26/158 in 175 IP. Long term, both project as top-of-the-rotation starters.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com